Trends

[jtw1]

Change those bets !!!

Stake 2pts EW - NICHE MARKET @ 22/1 - 1/4 the odds - first 6 [VC Bet]

Stake 2pts EW - BIG FELLA THANKS @ 17/1 - 1/4 the odds - first 6 [VC Bet]

Yes that nice Victor's paying out on the first 6 home !!!

[jtw1]

I thought NICHE MARKET ran a great race , just ran out of steam but still managed to secure a small profit on the day .
BIG FELLA THANKS done a CRISP ! in the fact he virtually stopped to a walk after the last and finished 7th !!!!

Profit for NH season - 209.78pts

[jtw1]

Not part of the Main Trends but the 4.15 at Leopardstown has been run 6 times and has only been won by 2 trainers .

AP O'Brien won in '07 ' 09 ' 10
D WELD won in '05 ,'06 and '08

QUEST FOR PEACE and DIOGENES represents O'Brien while WELD has 2 in MUTASHAREF and OLYMPIAD .

The first named of each appears to be the stable 1st choice

[jtw1]

3.10 LONGCHAMP G2 4yo+ 10f
-----------------------------

13/13 returned at odds up to 15/1 , 3 outright Favs .
12/13 had all won at Group level , the other had won a Listed race.
12/13 ran in Group company LTO.
11/13 were 4 yo's despite older horses representing approx 33% of the runners [ 38/97] the other 2 were 5yo's
10/13 had won over 10f , 3 others had won over 9f and 12f.

An interesting stat is that 6 previous winners has last ran in the G3 PRIX EXBURY at St Cloud in March.

Concentating on the 4yo age group removes half the field .

LEY HUNTER has only won at Listed grade .

Altough a winner at 11f , CELTIC CELEB has done most of his recent running over 12/16f therefore may not appreciate this step back on his seasonal debut.

PLANTEUR has won his previous 2 debut's but has found a few too good in the G1's he contested last season which may hand the advantage to SILVER POND who was a fast finishing 3rd LTO 3 weeks ago at St Cloud in the PRIX EXBURY

Stake 10pts @ 4.5 - Betfair

Apologies for late post

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by jtw1

Not part of the Main Trends but the 4.15 at Leopardstown has been run 6 times and has only been won by 2 trainers .

AP O'Brien won in '07 ' 09 ' 10
D WELD won in '05 ,'06 and '08

QUEST FOR PEACE and DIOGENES represents O'Brien while WELD has 2 in MUTASHAREF and OLYMPIAD .

The first named of each appears to be the stable 1st choice

1st - QUEST FOR PEACE @ 13/8F

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by jtw1

3.10 LONGCHAMP G2 4yo+ 10f
-----------------------------

13/13 returned at odds up to 15/1 , 3 outright Favs .
12/13 had all won at Group level , the other had won a Listed race.
12/13 ran in Group company LTO.
11/13 were 4 yo's despite older horses representing approx 33% of the runners [ 38/97] the other 2 were 5yo's
10/13 had won over 10f , 3 others had won over 9f and 12f.

An interesting stat is that 6 previous winners has last ran in the G3 PRIX EXBURY at St Cloud in March.

Concentating on the 4yo age group removes half the field .

LEY HUNTER has only won at Listed grade .

Altough a winner at 11f , CELTIC CELEB has done most of his recent running over 12/16f therefore may not appreciate this step back on his seasonal debut.

PLANTEUR has won his previous 2 debut's but has found a few too good in the G1's he contested last season which may hand the advantage to SILVER POND who was a fast finishing 3rd LTO 3 weeks ago at St Cloud in the PRIX EXBURY

Stake 10pts @ 4.5 - Betfair

Apologies for late post

1st - PLANTEUR @ 7/5F , SILVER POND was 4th

[jtw1]

Thursday NEWMARKET - 4.45 - Earl of Sefton Stakes - 9f - 4yo+
-----------------------------------------------------------------

12/14 finished in the first 4 last time out.
10/10 with a rating were rated 100+ [ 8 were 109+ ]
12/12 had won at either 8f , 9f or both
10/12 were aged 4 or 5 yo , however there have only been 13 runners in the past 11 runnings who were older than 5 and 2 have won while 4 were placed.
7/12 had won at Listed/Group level
7/8 who had a previous run at Newmarket [ either course] had been placed in the first 3 .

Starting with the ratings , take out those on 107 or under - BALDUCCI , JET AWAY , RANSOM NOTE .

WORLD HERITAGE has not won at 8 or 9f.

BULLET TRAIN was 5th LTO but was over 7l behind the winner in a Listed race , whereas ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL was also 5th but btn just over 3l in a G1 so the latter stays in the equation.

FORTE DE MARMI has never ran in anything above Class 2 but his rating has went up 20lbs since his win FTO last season , has won 5/11 races so is lightly raced for a 5yo .
Loves G/F ground and won FTO in the past 2 seasons.
Nevertheless i would prefer proven ability at Group level although the stat of 7/12 isn't the strongest , but wouldn't be surprised if this one came in .
Cumani's first runner of the season.

Even though STEELE TANGO has won at Group 3 grade that was back in Oct '09 by a head .
His record at Newmarket is quite good , if you consider placed runs , it is - 2 , 2 , 2 , 1 , 4 , 2 , 2 .
Which makes me wonder if he is one of those horses who either finds one too good or just can't or want ot get his head in front , don't forget he only won by a Head here and his other 3 career wins have been by 2 heads and a sh-hd !!!
Could do it but needs absolutely everything to fall right for him , great place bet though !!!!

That leaves 2 to consider -

POLYTECHNICIEN is an A FABRE trained 5yo who has won at 8 and 10f .
A Group 3 winner he will certainly be fit after 2 runs this season BUT he does appear to prefer ground with a bit of give in it , 5 of 6 wins have came with Soft or Heavy in the title and the other was on Fibresand .

ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL was a top class 2yo who won a Maiden and then a York G3 before running 2nd in the Racing Post Trophy .
Won the Craven here last season before finishing 5th in the 2000 guineas .
Not been seen since but if fit and has retained or improved has a major cahnce of taking this G3.
Obviously a Course winner who has also won on G/F twice .
R MOORE has a 29% strike-rate , 6 wins from 21 , for J DUNLOP .

Summary - This , for me , is between ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL and FORTE DE MARMI .
The ground will be against POLYTECHNICIEN despite the trainer having had a winner and a 3rd from 2 runners in this race .

Both selections have profiles which have produced recent winners , ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL taking a step down a grade or 2 while FORTE DE MARMI takes an obvious step up in class .

DUNLOP has had 6 runners this season and produced one winner , a 1/5 fav in a Folkestone maiden , of the other 5 , 3 have started fav , 2 were 2nd fav but all were beaten and well beaten at that .

With that in mind i'm making the Cumani runner the main selection with a saver on EP

Stake 7pts @ 5/1 FORTE DE MARMI
Stake 3pts @ 5/2 ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL

[jtw1]

FORTE DE MARMI - UNP
ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL - 3rd @ 2/1f


SATURDAY - NEWBURY - 2.05 - 12f - Group 3 [formerly the John Porter Stks]
------------------------------------------------------------------------

14/15 had been placed in a Group race , 8 had won at Group level .
14/15 had already won over 12f
13/15 were making their seasonal debuts
13/15 were aged 4-6y old
11/11 with a BHB rating were rated 108 or better .
5 of the last 14 last ran in the ST SIMON stakes over C/D the previous season.

Start off with those rated under 108 - BRIDGE OF GOLD , HALICARNASSUS , CUMULUS NIMBUS and VERDANT .

POET has never won over 10f .

The remaining 3 have all won over 12f , are making their debuts , are 6yo's and have won Group races.

Although the forecast going is G/F , todays times were all above standard , with the 3 races over 10f between 3.8 and 7.2 secs slower than standard.
Light rain is forecast overnight so i don't think the G/F is correct .

With that in mind i'm being swayed to CLOWANCE who won the ST SIMON last season.
That race is a G3 over C/D and significantly all 3 of CLOWANCE's wins have been at Newbury with her only defeat being in this race last season [11th of 15 , eased when beaten .
She has won and been 2nd on 2 of her seasonal debuts .

ALLIED POWERS has won at G2 and G3 level .
Was 12th in last years renewal and has usually needed a race before hitting form - 0 , 3 , 7 , 0 has been his seasonal debut figures .

INDIAN DAYS has won G2 [ in Turkey ] .
Similar to ALLIED POWERS this one also needs a race or 3 to start finding form .
His best win beofre that G2 victory was in Class 2 grade so whether he can win this G3 at the first time of asking is debateable imo.

Checking back this is what i wrote about CLOWANCE's chance's last season -
'With regards to the record of Fillies , it is 2 wins and a 3rd from 11 runners in the past 14 runnings .
One of those 2 winners was a 20/1 shot . Unfortunately the RP does not give ratings past 1999 but up until then all the Fillies that had ran were rated under 108.
The 2 winners had won at Listed level , along with 3 btn Fillies so it looks favourable for CLOWANCE on the sex angle

With the current going described as GOOD and temperatures of 14/15 degrees with no rain forecast the ground could end up G/F .
With that in mind i'm taking out CLOWANCE as she has ran only twice on GOOD ground and 4 times on Soft/Heavy .
She has won on Good but in a time 6.7secs slower than the standard so i'm thinking it might be a bit lively out there for her on Saturday . '

Last years race had 15 runners [only 8 declared tomorrow ] and a blistering pace was set by AKMAAL , CLOWANCE tracked this one here's the RP quote about her run - Led 1f, stayed chasing leader to 3f out, ridden over 2f out, still right there over 1f out, eased when no chance final furlong (op 13-2)

The race was 0.22 secs BELOW standard which signifies true G/F imo .

I think things may fall into place a bit more favourably for her tomorrow .

Stake 10pts @ 5/1 - CLOWANCE

[jtw1]

DONCASTER - 6.15 - 8f - Listed - 4yo+
----------------------------------------------

14/15 were Southern trained , exception was M Johnston
14/15 were 4 or 5 y olds
12/15 were making their seasonal debuts
12/13 were rated 100+
10/13 of the winners , when the race was run at Doncaster , had either won or been btn under 3l in Listed /Group company

Both BALCARCE NOW and OFF CHANCE are rated 100 or under and are Northern trained .

SET THE TREND is rated only 100

ST MORITZ is Northern trained

That leaves THE RECTIFIER from the Epsom yard of Jim Boyle .
This one looks sure to try and dictate the pace and has done it successfully in a Listed race at Windsor and was 2nd in a Listed at Sandown doing the same .
G/F suits as does the going , however a negative is the stables apparent lack of form having only a 2nd and 3r from 10 runners so far , an even money shot amongst the unp .

FAREER has won 3 times over 8f and all of those were on G/F ground
Winner of a Listed event at York he usually tracks the leaders but has also won making all , so if T O'Shea feels that THE RECTIFIER is slowing the pace his mount is well capable of taking it up .
Is race-fit after 4 runs in Dubai and Ed Dunlop has had 4 winners and 3 2nds from 14 runners in the past 14 days .

Fitness and stable form make FAREER a confidant choice

Stake 10pts @ 2/1 - Wm Hill

[jtw1]

CLOWANCE is now a non-runner

Which leaves me in a bit of a quandry as the other 2 have flaws and even the trainer of ALLIED POWERS has reservations about his charge today -

Taken from Sporting Life - Michael Bell admits he would be surprised if Allied Powers manages to make a winning seasonal return in the Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes at Newbury.
The six-year-old was well beaten when the Group Three contest, better known as the John Porter Stakes, was won by Harbinger 12 months ago, but he went on to win twice at Pattern level in France.
Bell believes his charge always needs his first run of the year to get him going and as a result, he is not expecting too much on Saturday.
"He always needs a run and the older he gets, he's likely to need the run even more," said Bell.
"I'm not expecting anything other than a nice pipe opener to be honest, but he's in good form and he's healthy and well.
"We would have liked to have seen some rain, but even if he'd had his optimum conditions, I don't think he would have been effective first time out. He's just one of those horses who always needs a run.
"Maybe he'll surprise me, which would be nice."


INDIAN DAYS was also mentioned in the same article , a bit more positively from the jockey -

Indian Days was set some stiff tasks towards the back-end of last year, finishing down the field in Group Ones in Italy and Hong Kong.
Tom Queally rides him on his return and he said in his column on www.racinguk.com: "The John Porter doesn't look particularly strong and I think Indian Days, who I ride for James Given, should have a chance.
"He's fared well at the top level and I have a good record for James, so it's a ride I am naturally looking forward to."


The Given stable has had 4 winners from 15 runners in the past 14 days so i , tentatively , give INDIAN DAYS the selection


Stake 10pts @ 8/1

[jtw1]

1st - INDIAN DAYS

[beamer]

Brilliant.

Cheers beamer

[Bigkegman]

Fantastic... Indian days. Thanks

[jtw1]

As far as the TRENDS are concerned thats the National Hunt selections over for another season and thankfully we ended it with an over all profit of 209.78 pts to the selected stakes


The flat season has satrted well after INDIAN DAYS won the JohnPorter on saturday with the profit currently on 67.00 pts

Looking forward to Sandown over the weekend with the Bet365 MILE and Gordon Richards Stakes on Saturday

[jtw1]

SANDOWN 3.45 8f Group 2 4yo+ Bet 365 Mile
-----------------------------------------------

13/15 were returned 1st/2nd or 3rd Fav .
13/15 were aged 4 or 5 yo [6yo+ have accounted for 30 of the 125 runners in those 14 runnings .
13/13 won at least a Listed race , 10/13 had won at least Group 3 level
11/11 were rated 109 - 124
9/12 was one of the top 2 rated horses
No mare/Filly has won in the last 13 runnings , but there have only been 6 of that sex that have ran in the past 10 season with 3 placing.
R HANNON [5] and M STOUTE [2] have won the last 6 runnings of this race.

A disppointing turnout of only 5 runners and one of them is a 100/1 pacemaker !!
Whether is due to the ground conditions , both at the course and on the training gallops or DICK TURPIN frightening the opposition off , it's frustrating to see such a numerically poor firld for a £45,000 race .

I posted the winners place in the betting to show how the market usually isn't far away here but with only 4 in with a shout that stats redundant imo.

First that we can safely dispose off [ unless things really go pear-shaped ] is the 87 rated pacemaker HIGHLAND KNIGHT.
The next to be chalked-off is the runner he would appear to be making the pace for and thats his stable-mate , the 6yo , DREAM EATER .
The age stat , his 4th best rating of 116 , never having won beyond 7f and his record of only one Stakes win [ Listed ] from 22 tries is more than enough to make me look elsewhere.

That leaves the remaing 3 to be considered and i'm doubtful about the chance of the Fav on the probable G/F ground .
DICK TURPIN has won at the first time of asking in his previous 2 debut runs and has been a winner at Group 1 , 2 and 3 grade .
However his one win over 8f was on G/S ground over in France and he has several G1 entries in the coming months so wether he'll be 'tenderly handled' is open to question with bigger prizes ahead.

CITYSCAPE is a lightly-raced 5yo who has won 3 times over 8f , one of those was a G3 .
He has not won FTO in 3 seasons and his 3 career wins have been in Sep/Oct.

MUSIC SHOW has won at G1 ,2 and 3 grade and won first time in both his debuts.
Most significant is liking for G/F ground with a win on that and one on Firm.
Fillies don't have too bad a record in this , despite not having won since '94 , they have been placed in 3 races since then from only 10 runners [ 5 of those were returned 16/1 + ]
Channon's yard has had 7 winners in the past 14 days and this one has multiple G1 entries
I think the race could well be run to suit MUSIC SHOW and the 9/2 on offer is well worth taking.

STAKE 10pts @ 9/2 - MUSIC SHOW