Trends

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by Yezzir

Keep going son, it'll come good!

Indeed it did

By crikey i needed that

What a plunge on TWICE OVER , thought the post was never going to appear

Guess who was clever/daft enough to do a double


TRIPLE ASPECT 1st

TWICE OVER 1st

Both taken at early prices

[Yezzir]

I tailed you on Triple Aspect! Got it at 4's!

Missed the 2nd one because I was out with the wife, but so happy for you pal, keep it up!

[jtw1]

3.10 Newmarket - Group 1 Falmouth Stakes - 8f - 3y-old+
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Age - 3yold's have won 9/14 , in fact they have won 23/31 , but since the race was upgraded in 2004 to Group 1 status there has been a 50/50 split between the 3yo's and their elders.
No horse aged over 5 won in the past 30 runnings [none this year]

Odds - 13/14 were returned at 10/1 or UNDER.

Ratings - Since the race was upgraded to Grp 1 status 5/6 were rated 111+

Ran LTO - 13/14 ran at either Royal Ascot or France .

The last 6 [ as a Grp 1 ] ran in a Group 1 race of which 2 each ran in the Coronation Stakes and Windsor Castle , one ran in the Queen Anne and the one that did not run at the Royal meeting had last turned out in the OAKS.

Distance wins - 12/14 were winners over 8f.

Placed LTO - 12/14 finished in the first 6 .

4/6 had won a G1 , one had won at G2 grade while the 50/1 winner RAJEEM had only a Listed win to her name in 2006.
That was run over 4 secs slower than standard , where she made all and stole the race , SOVIET SONG was the one the rest were worried about but she flopped that day and the rest were caught out by the winner.


Basically we're looking for a G1 [G2 at a push] winner who ran at the Royal Meeting lto and is a proven Miler.

ANTARA [btn 3l at level weight lto by STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI] won G3.
LAHALEEB -Won 4/5 over 7f and once over 10f.
GILE NA GREINE - Btn by both LILY LANGTRY and SPECIAL DUTY at level weight in G1's
MUSIC SHOW - Same as GILE NA GREINE.
RAINFALL - Only won a G3.

SPACIOUS has won a couple of G2's and is consistent but her record at Newmarket , while in decent company , leaves a lot to be desired - 2,4,4,3,3,3.

STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI is progressing quite nicely having taken the WINDSOR CASTLE at Royal Ascot lto [ in front of SPACIOUS] but she is taking on a couple of G1 horses here and she would need to improve further to troble them.

Those 2 are LILY LANGTRY who won the G1 Coronation Stakes quite comfortably lto and the dual Guineas winner SPECIAL DUTY who has no less than 3 G1's to her name.

SPECIAL DUTY did not appear at Royal Ascot lto as her 2 Guineas wins probably took a fair bit out of her imo , so the break should have done here well.
The fact that she has won 3 x G1's and a G2 from 7 outings [ground was too soft on her seasonal re-appearance ] and she was only btn a sh-hd in another G1 as a 2yo over 6f , shows she is a high class Filly and the one to beat imo.
C Head won this race in '96

LILY LANGTRY still has to improve a bit imo .

Stake 10pts @ 7/2

[jtw1]

SPECIAL DUTY well beaten [2nd last]


Thursday -

Newmarket 3.10 Group 2 3yo+ 12f Soft
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13/14 were returned at 12/1 or under , only 1 Fav.
*13/14 had won at Listed/Group level , only 2 had won at Grp 1 and carried the penalty for that win.
*12/14 were 12f winners
12/14 had ran at Group level LTO.
**10/11 with a BHA rating were rated 111+
*6 of the last 8 had ran at Royal Ascot.

*Interestingly of the past 13 winners no fewer than 8 had won at Newmarket [ both courses and different distances ] and the other 3 who had a course run were placed 2nd [ btn a half length - three quarters ] and 3rd .
2 had never ran at the Course.

Half the field are rated below the 111 mark - CROWDED HOUSE , MAN OF IRON , NANTON and SANS FRONTIERE , while REDWOOD has only won at Listed grade.

TAZEEZ has never ran beyond 10f , let alone win at this 12f !!
The step up may suit as he gets older but too much of a negative for me.

That leaves SPANISH MOON and HOLBERG to peruse over .


Selection for the PRINCESS OF WALES STAKES on Thursday is SPANISH MOON .
The fact that he has won at G1 and G2 level while HOLBERG has a G3 win to his name .
Also his record after a 60 day+ break is 6 , 1 , 2 , 1 , 1 , 3 so lack of a recent run is not a concern .

Going / Distance suits so i'll 10pts @ 7/4 [PP and BlueSq]

[Yezzir]

Not your fault yesterday, the horse was supported in the market too, but just didn't give it the running, seemed uncomfortable.

I'm on Spanish Moon

[jtw1]

SPANISH MOON 4th


Nothing in the UK for Saturday , but i've had a wee peek at the 4.00 over in HAMBURG where there is a G3 over 8f for 3yo+ and it's the winning age group thats caught the eye .

The race has been a G3 since 2002 and since then 3 year olds have only represented 25% [15/63] of the runners but have had 3 winners in that time as well as one 2nd and three 3rd placings , [ also there was one race where they had no runner of that age ]

There are only 2 three year olds running tomorrow and both come from the same stable .
Both are Maidens but don't let that put you off as the last 3 yo winner was also a Maiden and the 2002 winner was making his racecourse debut.
KITE HUNTER and NOBLE ALPHA are the 2 runners .
They raced against each other in the German 2000 Guineas where the former finished 2nd but only a neck in front of his stable companion.
Noble ALPHA has since was beaten over 4l in a G3 at Chantilly on Soft ground , noted as staying on but eased close home .

From what i can make out both may well be better suited by the G/F ground which it is at present .

Betfair have them at 9.0 and 5.5 respectively but to small amounts .

Will post tomorrow with any further news.

[jtw1]

3.50 Munich - 10f Group 1 - 3yo+ Soft going
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This race is live on ATR so i've had a look and here's what i found -

The 2000 - 2004 runnings were won by horses who had won at no better than Group 2 but since then the 5 winners have won at Group 1 level .

As is usual in this class of race it pays to consider those in the top half of the betting

Four 3yo's have won since 2000 and thats not a bad record as they have provided only about 25% of the runners .

Concentrating on those last 5 runnings , all 5 had ran that season and 4 had won LTO , the other was unp in a G1 at Royal Ascot on it's seasonal debut whereas the others had already ran between 2-3 times that season.

UK trained runners have won 5/10 but neither have won above G3 and LADY JANE DIGBY has a doubt about handling the going .

WHITE LIGHTENING , Noble ALPHA , NORDERNEY and SCOLARI are the outsiders and have never won a G1 .

In fact there are only 2 runners who have won at the top grade and they are NIGHT MAGIC and QUERARI .

NIGHT MAGIC is a Filly who have not won this in the past 10 years but to be fair have not had too many runners either , but it's hard to look past QUERARI who will love the Soft ground [ his G1 win LTO was on Heavy and he has another soft ground win to his name .

Stake 10pts @ 5/2 [ Stan James]

[jtw1]

Stone cold last

1st - LADY JANE DIGBY keeps the UK runners strike-rate above average

[jtw1]

GOODWOOD 3.25 Group 2 LENNOX STAKES
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Run as a Group 2 since 2003 so it's those last 7 years i'll concentrate on.

* 7/7 were rated 110+
* 6/7 were taking a step down from G1 or had ran at G2 LTO
Only 1 Fav has won in those 7 runnings
6/7 had won at Group 2 or 3 grade
* 5/7 were previous 7f winners [last seasons winner had been btn only a sh-hd over 7f]
6/7 were returned at 7/1 or under.

* = Strong trend imo

DUNELIGHT , LOVELACE and RIGGINS are all rated under 110.

Of the 9 left , 8 were 7f winners while CAT JUNIOR has finished under a half length 2nd over the trip so no help there .

RED JAZZ [G3] , AIR CHIEF MARSHALL [G3] , LORD SHANAKIL [list] , FINJAAN [G3] are all taking a step up in grade from thier last run .

FORGOTTEN VOICE has never won above CL2 Handicap grade , he has ran well in G3's but has never bothered the judge when taking on the G1/2 horses.

MAIN AIM was favourite for this last season [6/5] and came last which is a major concern on a track like Goodwood , a specialist track with it's twists , turns and undulations .

BALTHAZAR'S GIFT was only beaten a half length when a 25/1 shot last year.
He has had a couple of runs this season both over a too-short 6f and both were G1's.
The return to G2 and the extra furlong will certainly be in his favour here .
Unfortunately Clive Cox's stable has been in poor form for most of the current flat season , only 5 winners from 123 runners on the turf .

That leaves the French trained DALGHAR and CAT JUNIOR .

DALGHAR may well start FAV and is relatively lightly raced for a 4yo .
6th behind GOLDIKOVA at Royal Ascot [8f] last time was a decent run and he has a 100% record over 7f , but again i would prefer a runner with course experience and CAT JUNIOR fits the bill.

He ran in the Queen Anne [as did DALGHAR ] last time and ran a lone furrow up the center of the track for nearly half the race before the pace took it's toll and Dettori eased him up .
His run before that was better as he was 4l behind PACO BOY in the Bet365 Mile after trying to make all , the 1st , 2nd and 3rd have all franked the form .
His record over 7f is - 2nd [G2] , 3rd [G3] , 2nd [G2] and 4th [G1] .
It was over the course that he finished 3rd in that G3 where he ran into trouble in running .
B MEEHAN has had 6 winners in the past 14 days so the yard is in form
Ladbrokes have him @ 16's while Blue Sq have a generous 22/1 on offer.

5pts EW @ 22/1 - Bl Sq

[Yezzir]

What a brilliant tip.

2nd by a head, I got it at 33/1, only £10 e/w, but still a nice, tidy return.

Great info once again.

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by Yezzir

What a brilliant tip.

2nd by a head, I got it at 33/1, only £10 e/w, but still a nice, tidy return.

Great info once again.

Well done Yezzir , unfortunately i had to take the 22's last night and i thought that was generous !!!

Thought he was going to get there

[jtw1]

CAT JUNIOR 2nd @ 33/1 [advised at 22/1 ]

Returns - 22pts




3.25 SUSSEX STAKES G1 - 3yo+ 1m
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9/12 - Previous Grp 1 winner or a close 2nd in Grp 1 company
11/12 - In the top 4 in the betting
12/12 - Rated 115+
Age - 7 x3yo's , 5 x 4yo+.

ENCOMPASSING and BEACON LODGE are below the 115 ohr.

DREAM EATER and MAC LOVE [now a 9yo ] have not shown any worthwhile form in Group 1's .

BEETHOVEN would appear to be the pacemaker , the officail Coolmore website states that he will ' improve again from this run'.

No great surprise we're left with CANFORD CLIFFS and RIP VAN WINKLE .
There's nothing to separate them on form imo , providing you ignore RVW's first outing behind GOLDIKOVA as that was his 1st run of the season of which the stable's runner's have now become notorious for 'needing'

Stake 10pts @ 5/2 - RIP VAN WINKLE

[jtw1]

RIP VAN WINKLE 2nd to a VERY good horse in CANFORD CLIFFS , thought he had stolen a march but he was reeled in by the winner.

3.05 Goodwood - Nassau Stakes G1 - 10f - 3yo+
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Only a relatively small number of strong Trends but they should point us in the right direction.

8/11 runnings were won by a past G1 winner , one was a G2 winner and 2 were G3 victors .

8/11 were 3y-olds of which 7 had last ran in either The OAKS , IRISH OAKS or The CORONATION STAKES .
Of the 3 older winners 2 had last ran in the FALMOUTH STAKES.

10/11 were rated 110+


As is usual with these Group races it pays to stick with those in the top 3/4 in the market .

BARSHIBA and CONTRADENSE are below the 110 rating limit and are both around the 16/1 mark in the betting .

Ex-German ANTARA has only won at G3 and was behind STRAWBERRYDAIQURI at Ascot LTO , and she [Strawberrydaiquiri] has been found lacking in both efforts in G1 company this season.

Very tricky to sparate the remaining 3 who have all won at G1 level -

MIDDAY won this last season as a 3yo and tries to become the first to do the double as a 4yo [ RUBY TIGER won it as a 4yo then as a 5yo back in the early '90's]
Her run behind SARISKA at York should have blown away any cobwebs and Henry Cecil's yard are in obvious good nick .

STACELITA is the older of the 2 French trained runners and this clssy Filly has no less than 3 G1 wins to her name and only 5l behind SEA THE STARS in last season's ARC.
Well behind GOLDIKOVA on her seasonal debut she easily won a G3 LTO .
A couple of concern's is the G/F ground she will face for the 1st time [6/7 wins have come on G/S - Heavy ] and the Trainer has only had 1 runner in the past 14 days [ 7th of 7 ]

ROSANARA is a 3y-old who , although not having won this season , was 2nd in the French OAKS lto and would seem to want the 10f .
A winner on GOOD ground twice as a 2yold she should appreciate the going better than her compatriot and her Stable has had 4 winners in the past 14 days - G2 , G3 and a couple of Listed races .

Summary - STACELITA's stable form and the fact that she faces firmer going than she has previously encountered put's me off her chance at level weight with MIDDAY .
But lack of a previous race [79 days ago ] is a worry for me about Cecils runner .
Her course win is a valuable positive but i'm going to give the 3 y-old runner a chance .
Getting 8lb's and showing her liking for a distance further than 8f LTO + the yards form and her proven G1 class gives her the kiss of death here

Stake 10pts @ 4/1 - ROSANARA [BL SQ + Skybet ]

*just had a look at todays results from Deauville and JC ROUGET had a double !! so thats that reasoning blown out of the water , however A DE ROYER DUPRE also had winner so i'll stick with the selection

[jtw1]

ROSANARA - UNP

Sat - 2.50 Haydock G3 - 10f - Soft
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Only one Trend stands out and thats the record of 3 y-olds in this Group 3.

In the last 9 runnings [ it was abandoned in 2002 ] they have won 7 .

In 2005 there were only 2 runners and one of those finished 2nd and in 2008 there were NO 3 y-old runners .

Heres the stats - from 75 runners only 23 were 3y-o's [33%] , so those 33% produced approx 75% of the winners.

There are three of the younger generation down to run on Saturday -

FALLEN IDOL - J Gosden
GREEN MOON - H Dunlop
ICON DREAM - D Wachman

GREEN MOON has won over the 10f but the stable has had an atrocious 2010 with only 5 winners from 100 runners on Turf and GREEN MOON has accounted for 3 of those wins , another negative is that J Spencer has ridden him in his last 3 ouings [of which 2 were wins ] but rides one for T Tate in this .
Can't ignore the exceptionally poor form of the yard so i'm by passing this one.

ICON DREAM is an Irish raider but Wachman has a poor record with his UK runners with only 1 win from 42 runners.
The horses 2 best runs have been at Chester [ Sharp LH Track] and Tipperary [ Sharp LH track] which are nothing like Haydock .
Tried over 2m in the G3 Queen's Vase LTO [ 10th of 12] he takes a bit drop in distance here .
Significantly J Spencer has also ridden this one in it's last 3 outing's and has jumped ship this time [ maybe DISTANT MEMORIES should be the selection !!! ]
More than enough reasons not to back this one .

Which leaves us with FALLEN IDOL whose has progressed in each of his 4 career runs , 1st in his Maiden , 1st in a Cl 2 Handicap , 1st in a Listed race then 5th but only btn one and a half lengths in a G3 in France were he was noted as running on after having to go wide 2f out.
There is a worry about his pedigree [sire has winning ave of 7.8f but has produced winners over a variety of distances ] and is tackling a distance further than 8f for the 1st time but 2 of those wins were at Sandown [a stiff course ] and were in the style of a horse who may well like further .
J Gosden has been finding the winners again after a brief barren spell .

[jtw1]

10pts @ 7/1 FALLEN IDOL