Trends

[jtw1]

FELL 2 out when challenging

[jtw1]

HAYDOCK 2.00 PETER MARSH CHASE.
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9/9 have been aged 8-10 y-olds
9/9 have carried 11:01 or under
1/9 was FAV .
1/9 was making it's seasonal debut
8/9 were 8/1 or under in the betting
8/8 had been placed between 1st-3rd that season
8/9 had course experience [either hurdles /chase or both ]

SIMON fits the bill with it's liking for HEAVY going an added plus

[ONEDUNME]

I do like that horse mate. I'll be joining you on it tomorrow for sure

[jtw1]

HAYDOCK ABANDONED


Very quickly - the 12.15 + 1.20 at LINGFIELD has fell to the FAV [4/5] and a horse with prev course experience [5/5]

12.15 - ADMIRAL DUNDAS
1.20 - ACE OF SPIES

[jtw1]

ADMIRAL DUNDAS 1ST @2/1
ACE OF SPIES 2ND @8/15

[jtw1]

Weds 4.00 Mussleburgh

2007	Theatrical Moment	4	10-7	7/4F	G A Swinbank	Tony Dobbin	109
2006	Rocca's Boy	4	10-2	20/1	M Wigham	S J Craine	85
2005	Bayside	4	10-11	6/4F	K G Reveley	James Davies	93
2004	Esh Bran Girl	4	9-13	33/1	D W Thompson	Andrew Tinkler	75
2003	Pass Me By	4	10-7	12/1	T D Walford	Jim Crowley	93
2002	Love Mail	4	10-2	7/1	Mrs S C Bradburne	Mark Bradburne	85

Take a look at the age of all 6 previous winners of this NH Flat race.
Out of 15 runners tomorrow there's only 3 4y-olds entered.
FOV
LORD RASPBERRY
SPELLCHECKER

Odds wise it's looks like an open affair with 2 favs coming in but there's also been 3 in double figures.

SPELLCHECKER looks like starting FAV and being from the Howard Johnson stable looks like having a good chance [ won 3/13 NH Flat at track]
LORD RASPBERRY comes from MW EASTERBY'S stable and has already had a ran at Wetherby .

SPELLCHECKER gets the nap , but i suggest a saver on LORD RASPBERRY [ stable has won 2/7 NH Flat at the track ]

[jtw1]

SPELLCHECKER 3rd @ odds -on .


SAT - SANDOWN 3.40 - 3M110Y H'CAP CHASE.

9/10 won by a horse from the bottom half of the Handicap
9/10 were between 2nd - 5th fav [ all under 11/1]
0/10 were FAV
7/10 were aged 9 or 10 , NO 6y-old from 11 runners has won.
7/10 was placed 1st or 2nd LTO
9/10 was returned at odds of 6/1 or UNDER LTO
8/10 had won at least at CLASS 3 level over chases
5/10 had a break of 60+ days
0/10 had ran within 13 days previously

Applying all these criteria leaves us with IRISH RAPTOR .
It's only carrying 1lb more than it's prev top rating and will have no problems with COURSE , DISTANCE or GOING .

[jtw1]

IRISH RAPTOR .- unp

Feel a need to change this a bit as the winners have not been coming in for me.
So i'm going to try and concentrate on one race per day , it will be a NON-HANDICAP and selections will be shortish odds but hopefully a decent strike rate can be achieved.

MONDAY 1.40 LINGFIELD

1M seller that has been run 3 times with the winner being either FAV [2] or 2nd fav [1]
All 3 had been placed 1st or 2nd in either of their last 2 runs
25 , 11 + 12 were the days since each had last ran.
All 3 had plenty of race-course experience.

The RACING POST betting forecast has WHATS FOR TEA , QUEEN MACHA , SOLARIA and SPITFIRE JANE [in that order ]close in the betting .

QUEEN MACHA + SOLARIA are making their race-course debuts so are discarded for this race.
SPITFIRE JANE has ran only twice in her career , the last was 56 days ago , and finished out of the frame in both.
That leaves us with WHATS FOR TEA , whose appearance in this will be her 16th career race , she was placed 2nd in her last 2 outings with the last only 13 days ago.

[jtw1]

WHATS FOR TEA 1ST @ EVENS [spitfire jane was a NR ]

TUESDAY - MARKET RASEN 2.00 JUV NOVICE HURDLE

Has been run 6 times in previous seasons
ALL 6 were in the top 3 in the betting [ 1 FAV]
4/6 were trained by , what i would call , a recognised top trainer.
ALL 6 had ran no more than 3 times over hurdles in their career [ 2 were FTO over hurdles , 1 of those was FTO on a racecourse ]
3/4 with Flat experience had won a race on the level.

First 4 in the RP f/cast are -

START ROYAL - This will be it's 7th outing over hurdles.
MAARAFEQ - Trained by VENETIA WILLIAMS , making it's NH debut here and has winning form on the Flat in France.
PHEIDAS - Has ran only 3 times over hurdles , but has no winning form on the flat and the stable only had 1 hurdle winner from 30 runners last season and not really in form this season.
BOOK OF FACTS - Has ran only twice over hurdles , placed in both and has winning form from the Flat [aw]

MAARAFEQ gets the vote ahead of BOOK OF FACTS , mainly due to the stable and 2 debutants have won previously.

[jtw1]

MAARAFEQ 1ST @ 4/1

Thats a bit better !!

[ONEDUNME]

[jtw1]

WEDNESDAY - DOWN ROYAL 2.05 2M4F MAIDEN HURDLE

6/6 won by the FAV [ 4 CLEAR , 1 JT + 1 CO-FAV ]
5/6 carried OVER 10:13
5/6 ran within 30 days of their last outing
6/6 placed between 2nd-4th in either of thier last 2 outings
6/6 were returned at odds of UNDER 8/1 LTO.
0/6 were ridden by a claimer

RARE BOB gets the vote ahead of HANGOVER .
He has been tried fairly highly so far with his first 2 runs over hurdles being in GRADE 2 [ 4TH BTN 13L ] and a GRADE 3 [well btn although this was his debut over the sticks]
It's first run in a NH Flat race produced a 2nd place behind SIZING EUROPE
Placed 3rd LTO the RP report stated it would appreciate further , 2m that time , 2m4f tomorrow.
Will be short-odds , hopefully a tad over EVENS


Done some reserch into the 2.35 and that has fell to a horse in the top 3 in betting 6/6 , but interestingly 3 odds-on FAVS have been beaten.
4/6 were 6y-old , 1 x 8y-old , 1x 10y-old.
5/6 have carried 11:12 [4] or above [1]
6/6 had won at least once previously in it's career
Apart from 1 debutant none of the other 5 have ran more than 4 times that season
4/5 that had ran that season had won one of those outings.

Top 3 in RP F/cast are -

ROYAL HERITAGE - ran 10 times this season , winning none , a 9 y-old
COSMO KING - Had 2 runs this season , won LTO , a 7-y-old
OFFALY - Fell in it's seasonal debut LTO , stable appears out-of-form .

COSMO KING must have a decent chance of a follow-up win here.

The main selection for the day however is RARE BOB

[jtw1]

RARE BOB - NON-RUNNER

COSMO KING unp

BETS - 3
WINS - 2
NR - 1
PROFIT = +5PTS to a 1PT level stake

[jtw1]

THURSDAY - HUNTINGDON 3.10 2M110Y JUV NOV HURDLE

Only been run 3 times but with 2 winnings FAVS and a 2nd FAV [ 13/8 ] coming in the signs are good for the top 2 in the betting here.
All 3 had previous hurdle experience.
All 3 were placed 1st,2nd or 3rd LTO.
2 had winning form on the Flat .

Both NORMAN THE GREAT + THE GREY BERRY have the credentials but a couple of other stats make the latter the selection.
Trainer P HOBBS has a record of 11/35 wins in hurdle races at HUNTINGDON [ 31% wins/runs , being the highest percentage at courses where he has double figure runners ]
THE GREY BERRY has won at CLASS 2+CLASS 4 level on the flat whereas NORMANS single win was in a CLASS 5 AW race.
THE GREY BERRY was bought for 340,000 GNS to go hurdling , so hopefully will win some small amount of that back here.

[jtw1]

Think it's safe to assume that something was amiss with the 340,000gns purchase as it trailed in a well beaten 8th of 9 @ 15/8f

Not a great deal to go on for FRIDAY but here's one to consider at small stakes.

BANGOR 1.45 2M1F NOV HURDLE

All 5 prev winners were returned at under 8/1 , inc 3 FAVS + 1 2nd Fav.
3/5 were 6y-old , 1x 7y-old and a 4y-old .
4/5 had experience over hurdles , The odd one was that 4y-old who was from the PIPE stable carrying only 10.6 and at odds of 2/7f.
There have been 5 mares who have ran , no wins.
15x 5y-olds have ran , NO wins.

The top 4 in the betting [racing post f/cast ] are -

RAPID INCREASE - A 5Y-OLD
LATANIER - 5Y-OLD with NO hurdles experience
MONSIGNORITA - MARE
SUCH A MAN - Could be worth an interest being a 7y-old and has ran over the sticks in IRELAND. [ inc Handicap race LTO ]
Makes it's debut for EVAN WILLIAMS tomorrow and with it's previous experience and age could have a chance at a decent price.
Watch the betting .