Trends

[jtw1]

1st - HARBINGER taken @ 2.08

Part of a Stoute/Moore hat-trick and was backed into odds-on , AGE OF AQUARIUS ran well into 2nd and obviously needed the run .



HAYDOCK 3.05 - 7F Listed 3yo+ -SPRING TROPHY [ upgraded in 2000 ]
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10/10 had won or been placed in at least LISTED Grade
9/10 were 4-6yo's .
9/10 were rated 102+ [ 7 were 105+ ]
9/10 ran in at least Cl 2 grade LTO
8/10 were Southern trained
8/10 had won over 7f and the other 2 had been btn under a length in at least 1 7f race they had competed in.
7/10 had ran that season , with another having ran in Dubai in early March.
The market doesn't give too many clues as 2 Favs and 2 outsiders have won in the 9 runnings as a Listed event .
No 3yos have won in 9 runnings BUT there have only been 4 runners of that age and one was a 33/1 shot , one was 2nd another 3rd .

There are no 3yo's declared so thats that sorted , as well as all 7 being rated over the 102 limit .

WELSH EMPEROR is now an 11y-old and was a well beaten 6th [btn 10l] in last season's running , can't see how he'll improve on that here.

7f is one of those 'specialist' distance's and TOMBI has won 3 times but all over 6f , his record in 7f is 5th , 4th , 2nd , 4th , 8th and 8th .

MARCHING represents GODOLPHIN but hasn't won a race since Oct '07 and has never set foot on a UK race-course yet .
He has had 2 runs across in Dubai and ran in Group 1 company back in his homeland but will probably need time to acclimatise imo.

ORDNANCE ROW had a good '09 winning a Listed race at Windsor and a G3 at Goodwood.
The majority of his wins have been over the Mile [6] but he has won twice over the 7f.
Major negative for him is that he has never won at the 1st time of asking , and thats over 5 seasons .

LOVELACE won last time out but that was only a Cl 3 race at Newcastle.
A previous G3 winner back in '07 and he did win a G2 at Baden-Baden in '08.
His last 3 wins have all been over 8f which leads me to believe that 7f on G/F as it is here will be a bit on the sharp side for him nowadays.
He had a fitness advantage in that Newcastle race in that he had already ran 4 times across in Dubai [all over 7f]

GEORGEBERNARDSHAW is an ex-inmate of Aiden O'Briens.
After winning his Miaden and a Listed race at The Curragh he was 2nd Fav in the French 2000 in '08 but was beaten into 10th and failed to win again for the stable .
He had 4 placings in G3 company before a couple of 3rd's in Listed grade.
Has raced on mostly G/S to Heavy ground and the only time he ran on G/F he was btn 25l in the Jersey Stakes [G3]
The one thing he may have in his favour is the change of scenery he will have encountered after joing D SIMCOCK's Newmarket yard.
Countless horses have changed after a similar switch and any easing in the going will be a help but currently there is none forecast.

That leaves us with MIAS BOY who was caught and beaten a head in a Litsed race at Doncaster 3 weeks ago .
The first 2 finished 4l in front of the 3rd .
He has won at Listed grade , won on G/F and over the 7f twice and in fact his last 5 runs over the distance is 2,2,1,2,2 .

Stake 9pts MIAS BOY @ 3/1

Stake 1pt GEORGEBERNARDSHAW @ 10/1 [just in case ]

[jtw1]

LINGFIELD 2.10 - G3 3yo+ 7f - Chartwell Fillies Stakes
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1st time of looking at this race as it only became a Group race back in 2004.

The betting has been significant as 5/6 were returned 1st or 2nd Fav with last years 16/1 shot pipping the fav by a nose .


5/6 had won a Listed race or been btn under 2l in a GROUP event.
5/6 were 4yo+ , not too surprising as the older generation had 50% more runners but still a good percentage win ratio.
5/6 had ran in at least LISTED grade LTO , the other was the one 3yo winner for whom this was only it's 2nd run.
5/6 had won at 7f , the other had ran 3 times over the dist and was placed 2,2,2.
The last 2 were Irish and French trained , the 3 winners previous to those were rated 106, 103 and 100.

Staring with the two 3yo's in the field , AREEDA is only rated 75 and is a 50/1 shot.
QUEEN'S GRACE has won a Listed race but was 10th of 11 when running over 7f for the one and only time , won twice over 6f.

JENISKY is only rated 92 - 33/1 in the market.

MOSQUERAS ROMANCE is rated only 97 but has also never won over 7f , been running in 8/9f events.

AHLA WASAHL has never won over 7f , ran 3 times over 7f but never finished closer than 5th and is bred to stay further imo.

PYRRHA has only won at Cl3 grade , one run at Group 3 resulted in a 15l beating .

REGGANE is the market leader and the stable won this 2 seasons ago but he has only had 5 runs , all at 8f .
The last 4 of these were G1's and G2's inc a 2nd to GHAANATI in the G1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Class wise he has competed in the highest grade of all the other runners here but that lack of a win over 7f and his sires 8.9f winning ave is a worry.

That leaves GOLDEN STREAM and PENNY'S GIFT .

PENNY'S GIFT has won over the 7f and been victorious in a G2 [ German 2000 Guineas] and a Listed race at Newmarket .
She ran at the highest level last season - 3rd in the European Free Handicap [G3] , 6th in the 1000 Guineas [G1] , Won German Guineas , 5th in the Falmouth Stakes behind GOLDIKOVA [ G1] after which she disappointed in a G3 and a Listed race.
She is 2nd top rated on 106 and the stable is in decent form .

GOLDEN STREAM is a true 7f horse with her 3 career wins being over the distance [despite being by Sadlers wells !] , also 2 of those were on G/F ground.
A dual Listed winner , she has disappointed at Group level .
She has had a pipe-opener at Newmarket 23 days ago which should have brought her on and with the Stoute/Moore combo in top form the 5/1 on offer is tempting .

10pt win - GOLDEN STREAM @ 5/1

[ONEDUNME]

Looks like a cracking each way bet mate - available at 5/1 so that means money back if it finishes in the first three. I'll get on now and pray for no non runners to take the places down to two.

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME

Looks like a cracking each way bet mate - available at 5/1 so that means money back if it finishes in the first three. I'll get on now and pray for no non runners to take the places down to two.

2 nr's

Seconditis today i'm afraid

MIAS BOY 2nd , backed into 7/4f . Last time was caught after leading going into the last furlong , today just failed to catch the winner another couple of strides and .....................

GOLDEN STREAM 2nd @ 7/2 , Moore eventually found a gap but to be honest was beaten fair and square , had plenty time to go past but wasn't good enough today .

[jtw1]

WINDSOR 6.40 8f Listed stakes
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10/10 were 4/1 or UNDER [ 5 Favs] .
10/10 were rated 104 - 114.
10/10 had won at either 7 or 8 f.
9/10 had either WON between Cl 3 to Listed grade or been placed in Grp company.
8/10 were 4 or 5y-olds.


MISTER GREEN [96] and VITZNAU [99] are rated below the 104 mark.

BUSHMAN has won a Cl2 and has been placed in Listed races but i don't think he'll appreciate the G/F ground thats forecast for tomorrow and he's rated at 6/7lb behind the other 2 left in the race.

BEACON LODGE is taking a big step down in class from his exploits last season , his last 6 runs have been at GROUP 1-3 grade and his last venture into Listed races resulted in a 3/4L win over ORDNANCE ROW off level weights.
He has won 2 G3's but 3 of his 4 wins have been on G/S or Soft ground and 3/4 wins have ben over the 7f as opposed to the 8f[ and 67yds] here .
He had a pipe-opener in PACO BOYS race at Sandown [G2] where he never really threatened but he has won at the 2nd time of asking in 2 of his 3 seasons.

ORDNANCE ROW has won this for the past 2 seasons so theres no need to look too much into his profile , both those wins were on G/F [ won 3 on that type of ground ] and has won 6/8 over the 8f.
Ran in the Listed race at Haydock on Saturday but don't let that put you off as he has won 3 times before after just breaks of 1 day , 2 days and 1 day .
Always needs a run to sharpen him up and should be a decent price with BEACON LODGE in the race [just over 2/1 on Betfair as i type] .
The latter will not be suited by the G/F so i'm going for ORDNANCE ROW to make it a hat-trick of wins in this race .

Stake 10pts ORDNANCE ROW @ 3.25

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by jtw1

GOLDEN STREAM 2nd @ 7/2 , Moore eventually found a gap but to be honest was beaten fair and square , had plenty time to go past but wasn't good enough today .

Yeah, the first I knew about the non runners was when the race came on and I counted the horses. No harm done as it finished second. Thought it was going to follow through at one stage but, as you say, just wasn't good enough on this occasion.

[jtw1]

Yet another 2nd with BUSHMAN beating ORDNANCE ROW - 5/2 2nd fav .

Selections - 25
Wiiners - 7

Loss = -6.54pts

[jtw1]

Weds - 3.10 YORK Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes 6f 3yo+ [ race upgraded to Grp 2 in 2003 ]
--------------------------

12/12 had won at least at LISTED level
12/12 rated 105 +
11/12 had won at 6f
11/12 had won at least 3 races in their career
10/12 were 4 or 5 y-olds
9/12 had ran that season
5 of the last 8 had ran in either the ABERNANT or GLADNESS Stakes last time out.

DRAW - When the going has been GOOD , G/F or FIRM the winners have been drawn - 4 [17 ran] , 3 [15] , 6 [12], 8 [14] , 5 [10] , 3 [10] , 6 [17] , 3 [16]
Even when the going is softer than Good the winning stalls have been 2,9,5,8.

There definately seems to be a draw bias at York over 6f , surely those results can't all be down to where the pace is ???
There have only been five 3yo's that have ran in the past 12 seasons with a record of a win [13/2] and one 3rd [33/1] place , so i wouldn't discount thier chance in this.
Only 12 runners this year , so the draw advantage might be worth keeping to single figure stalls .

Take out DONCASTER ROVER [10] , SHOWCASING [11 and the only 3 yo] and MULLIONMILEANHOUR [12]

Next to go is those rated under 105 - DAMIEN [103] , EDGE CLOSER [103] and ANGLEZARKE.

JUDD STREET is now an 8yo and has won a couple of Listed races but has failed no fewer than 6 times when tried at G3 grade , can't see any reason why he should win a Group 2 now.

The same applies to 3 time Listed winner PRIME DEFENDER , 6 times ran in G3 but never won and is now 6 yo.

INXILE has won a G3 but was subsequently disqualified , his other 2 runs in G3 have resulted in a 2nd and a 3rd placing.
He won at 6f for the 1st time LTO but that race was run on Soft ground and was run nearly 5secs above standard .
Not without a chance but in a true run race over 6f i think he find one or two better .

3 left to consider -

MAIN AIM is the STOUTE/MOORE representative and has won a G3 .
Twice a winner over 6f he ran 3 G1's last season the best of which was a 2nd .btn just under 2l , behind FLEETING SPIRIT in the July Cup.
I have a worry about the 6f on Good ground for this one as his previous 6f wins were on Soft and G/S .
His 3 other career wins were over 7f and he was reported to be 'running on /staying on ' so will this be a bit on the sharp side if the going stays as it is.
He has won FTO twice and has entries for G1's at Royal Ascot and July Cup

SAYIF has won at G2 level , been placed at G1 and 2 grade and has 2 wins at 6f [ only 2 wins] on G/F .
The CHAPPEL-HYAM yard has had a couple of winners from 10 runners in the past 14 days and he won FTO last season.

STARSPANGLEDBANNER makes his UK debut here after a capturing two G1's and a G2 Down Under.
3 times a winner over 6f , on paper he is the best horse in the field .
He is now with A O'BRIEN [ being owned by M TABOR] and there's been a bit of concern that his oLder horses especially have been in need of a run but this on ehas ran 3 times this Calander year , the last being a 3rd in G1 Handicap 67 days ago.

I'm going for Class here and STARSPANGLEDBANNER has proven himself at the top grade and if he has settled into his new home in Ballydoyle i think he's the one to beat .
MAIN AIM could be better over further/softer going while SAYIF could pose a bigger threat but stall 8 is a slight worry and he has not ran this season

The 5/1 on offer looks good for the selection esp being the better drawn of the 3.

10pt win STARSPANGLEDBANNER @ 5/1

[ONEDUNME]

With you mate. Looks booked for a place at least with Main Aim being the most likely winner I like the safety net of an each way bet. Most bookies giving 1/5 the odds a place but Bluesq are giving 5/1 and 1/4 a place (unless there are any non runners between now and Wednesday, obviously).

[jtw1]

7.10 NAAS - 10f Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes - 3yo Fillies and Mares
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9/9 were returned in the top 4 of the market
8/9 had ran no longer than 15 days previous [ last seasons winner was making her seasonal debut]
8/9 had ran that season with 7 of those being placed 1st , 2nd or 3rd LTO
8/9 were 3y-olds
Since 2004 when the race was upgraded to group status all 6 winners had won at least once previously.

J OXX has won 4 and J BOLGER 2 runnings

Some strong stats here , with the 3y-old stat very strong imo .
Apart from 2001 there has been about the same number of 3 y-old entries
as there were 4y-old+ , 38 and 34 respectively but there has been only
1 older winner.

Surprised to see no runners from the John OXX yard .

All 5 remaining have ran this season but LADY LUPUS has not found the frame in either of her 2 runs , btn over 14l in an 8f G3 race at The Curragh then an 18l beating over 10f at Navan in a Listed event.


Straight away take out the older runners - GRACE O'MALLEY , SHE'S OUR MARK , INDIANA GAL , MID MON LADY .

The 3yo CABARET is down as a doubtful runner .

DANCE ON BY has never been placed in any of her 3 runs , UNITY has not won but was only btn a sh-hd LTO so she stays in the running so far.

That leaves 3 and those 3 ran in the race race LTO in which AKDARENA beat DAZZLING DAY by 2 and a half lengths [ she was subsequently disq] and UNITY was a sh-hd behind D DAY in 3rd .
That LISTED race was over the same distance [10f] and going conditions [G/F] as this G3 event.
All 3 are carrying level weights , as they did in the previous race and i can't see any reason why the winner shouldn't repeat that result esp as Jim BOLGER has won 2 runnings of this race before .

This is assuming that CABARET is a nr [ currently fav on Betfair ]

STAKE - 10pts AKDARENA @ sp.

[jtw1]

STARSPANGLEDBANNER unp @ 4/1 jt-fav , Don't know what to make of O'Briens runners these days ??

AKDARENA 1st @ 7/2 2nd Fav , absolutely pissed it [ technical term there ] and the the drift out from 9/4 to 7/2 went our way for a change.

Selections = 28

Winners = 8

Profit = +18.46pts

[jtw1]

Tomorrow's MIDDLETON Stakes has been upgraded to Group status this season .
It was upgraded in 2004 to G3 from Listed grade so i'm a bit dubious about the stats esp asthere's only 4 runners , will leave alone .

Here's the stats for Fridays big race -

2.40 FRI - YORKSHIRE CUP 15f Group 2
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14/14 had won at least 3 times in their career
14/14 had won at least at 12f
13/14 were 9/1 or under
13/14 were aged 4 - 7y-olds
13/14 were Southern trained
12/14 won at Listed level and above , 10were in GROUP campany
13/14 had finished 1st -4th LTO
12/13 were rated 109 +
7/14 had ran that season


Off to watch the Europa Cup final so back later with the selection.

[jtw1]

2.40 FRI - YORKSHIRE CUP 15f Group 2
-----------------------------------------------

14/14 had won at least 3 times in their career
14/14 had won at least at 12f
13/14 were 9/1 or under
13/14 were aged 4 - 7y-olds
13/14 were Southern trained
12/14 won at Listed level and above , 10were in GROUP campany
13/14 had finished 1st -4th LTO
12/13 were rated 109 +
7/14 had ran that season


OASIS KNIGHT is rated only 102 , while FURMIGADELAGIUSTA is rated only 2lb below the 107 limit but being a 6yo and trying to win at this grade [won at listed ] for the 1st time is a big ask and this is reflected in his odds.
Simlary NANTON is rated 107 but has never won above Cl 2 grade and is now 8yo , a very big ask despite a decent run LTO behind Jukebox Jury in a G2 [ only 5 runners and was probably not the strongest race of that grade ]


All 4 left have won at Listed or above , are rated 110 and above and are Southern trained .

Although they have been getting winners , Godolphin's runners in Listed/Group races are still falling short with their record in G3 and above in the past 14 days reading - 3rd/7 , 9/16 , 14/19 , 5/5 , 4/5 , 7/8 , 16/17 , 4/6 , 3/7 , 10/16 , 3/4 and 4/5.
With those figures in mind and the fact that both their runners will be making their seasonal debuts in can't recommend any of the pair , despite them fitting the other main stats .

Which leaves a straight choice between PURPLE MOON and MANIFEST , The former is an older horse who has competed at the highest level worldwide without a win but several close 2nd's + 3rds in G1 's.
Made his seasonal debut against HARBINER in the John Porter where he ran prominently until dropping out to finish 7th , btn over 12l.

MANIFEST on the other hand has ran only 4 times despite being a 4yo , he has been placed at Listed and G3 grade in two of those and has won over 12f and on G/F and Good ground.
More importantly he finished 2nd in the John Porter finishing 9l in front of PURPLE MOON .
Both horses were making their seasonal debuts that day .
Although MANIFEST has not won above Class 4 grade i have to take into consideration that he has only had 4 runs and that 3rd last time was franked after HARBINGER won at Chester last week .
Henry CECIL's stable in in grand form right now


STAKE 10pts - MANIFEST @ 3/1

[jtw1]

1st MANIFEST @ 13/8 fav

Now the annoying part , came in after work click onto the Sporting Life/Racing UK replays and thought straight away i'd picked the wrong race !! but no , joy of joys there were 2 non-runners so the field was down to 5 so that 3/1 i took last night was no more
Paid out at just over 2/1 , ah well S**t happens ...

I can't recall a staying race producing such a strong turn of foot from the winner , this is one who could clean up the long-distance events this season.

[jtw1]

NEWBURY 3.05 - LOCKINGE STAKES Grp 1 8f 4yo+
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13/14 were in the top 3 in the betting [ 9/1 and under ]
12/14 were 4 or 5 y-old
10/14 were making their seasonal debut
9/10 with a BHA rating were rated 113 +
11/14 have won at Grp 3 level at least , last years winner was btn a length LTO in a G2.
12/14 have won at least 3 times
Sir M STOUTE + GODOLPHIN have both won the race 3 times in the past 11 runnings.
16 winners of the Sandown [Bet365] Mile have ran here since '86 but NONE have won .


First to go is those 3 who are 25/1 and above - STIMULATION , PRINCE OF DANCE and KARGALI .

THE CHEKA is rated only 110.

PIEPDREAMER has never won at the first time of asking in 3 seasonal debuts and has never raced over 8f since May '07 .
He has nearly all his running/winning over 10f , will probably need the race and further.

OUQBA has never won over the Mile , 2 wins at 6f and 2 over 7f ,
He has won a G3 and has been narrowly beaten in his last couple of runs [7f] which were G2 's so he has a bit of class about him but over this extra furlong ??

That leaves 3 to consider , the first we'll look at is LORD SHANAKILL from the very much in-form HENRY CECIL stable [was with AP JARVIS previously].
A G1 winner over in France which was over 8f and on Good ground [also won on G/F]
He also has won a G2 over 6f on this course and was only btn just under 2l in the St James Palace [G1] at Royal Ascot [win time = 1m39.21 secs btn one and three-quarter]
I think it's best to excuse his run in the Breeders Cup LTO when 12th of 14.
He has ran in 10 Group 1's and 2's and apart from finishing lame in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood and flopping in the 2000 Guineas he has never been beaten more than 3l in the remaining 8 .

ZACINTO is lightly raced for a 4yo , this will be his 7th run , but he has managed to win a G2 in that time and has won over the 8f twice .
He's another whose last run can be ignored [ last of 11 in the BREEDERS CUP MILE]
He also finished 2nd [btn just over a length ] in a G1 at Ascot over a mile in Sep [win time = 1m38.82 secs btn one and a quarter]
He has won his 2 seasonal debuts and the yard is in good nick.

PACO BOY is the class act in the race with 2 G1's and 4 G2's to his name .
Trounced a decent field LTO in the Bet365 Mile at SANDOWN but the record of winners from that race trying to win this is very poor , the ground certainly was against him last season but thats 0/16 is still a pretty big stat to overcome.
However he gets his ground tomorrow [ unless the heavens open ] and the mile now seems to be his trip .
Would appear to be home and hosed according to the market and with everything seemingly in his favour it's hard to see him being beaten .

Summary - Although i should nominate PACO BOY that niggly Sandown/Bet365 Mile stat holds me back , theerfore i'm going to nominate LORD SHANAKIL as an EW bet .
The only other G1 winner in the field and anything from the maestro that is Mr Cecil cannot be ignored at this time and 15/1 at 1/4 the odds 1st , 2nd ,3rd has to be taken .
ZACINTO may well be a G1 winner but he still has to prove it .

Stake 5pts EW LORD SHANAKIL @ 15/1 [Wm Hills]