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Trends
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11-04-2010, 16:42
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Re: Trends
Quote:
 3rd -Celemine 
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11-04-2010, 16:46
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Re: Trends
LIBANO unp
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13-04-2010, 22:14
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Re: Trends
Time to update the profit/loss so far since concerning the main Trend selections .
Selections - 6 Winners - 2 Profit/Loss = -3.04pts Newmarket stages it's first meeting of the season this week so i'm posting up the trends a few days ahead as i'm going to try and ignore any trends involving the Starting Price unless there's a definate bias toward the top 1/2 in the betting . Thursday NEWMARKET - 4.10 - Earl of Sefton Stakes - 9f - 4yo+ ----------------------------------------------------------------- 12/13 finished in the first 4 last time out. 9/9 with a rating were rated 100+ [ 7 were 109+ ] 11/11 had won at either 8f , 9f or both 9/11 were aged 4 or 5 yo , however there have only been 12 runners in the past 11 runnings who were older than 5 and 2 have won while 3 were placed. 10/11 ran in at least CLASS 2 COMPANY lto Only 6/11 had won at Listed/Group level 7/7 who had a previous run at Newmarket [ either course] had been placed in the first 3 . Looking at the entries as they stand now i'd take out CHANTILLY TIFFANY as she is only rated 98. I will be surprised if GAN AMHRAS runs after his disappointing run yesterday[Sunday] and his well btn 9th place takes him out of the equation along with IBN KHALDUN who finished 8th behind PRESVIS [ he has had only 2 runs since May '08 and i'd be very wary about Godolphin's runners at this time of the year . SRI PUTRA finished 7th lto but that was in a G1 on ground he would have hated so i'll keep him in just now. YAHRAB was 5th behind Tranquil Tiger LTO and hasn't won a race since Nov '08 and 3 of his career wins have been on the AW , rated 100 i don't think he's good enough to win this. PACHATTACK has only won once and that was over 7f , while KIMGDOM OF FIFE has won 3 times , all over 10f so this might just be a bit too short for him . The exact same goes for TRANQUIL TIGER who has never won a race under 10f and he's won 11 in total !! SANS FRONTIERE has never won over 8/9f but as he has only had 3 career runs i'll give him the benefit of the doubt , but being by Galileo he may need further to show his best . With respect to the trainer of STEEL TANGO , thie is a race which usually falls to one of the top yards in the country , eg GOSDEN , CECIL ,FABRE , STOUTE ,ELSWORTH etc and that horses G3 win [25/1 ] at the tail-end of last season has earned him a 3lb pen and imo he's up against it here . He did finish 2nd in this last season but the odds-on fav flopped that day and this looks a harder task this time around. That would leave PALAVICINI , RECHARGE , SANS FRONTIERE and SRI PUTRA to consider [ providing they run that is !!!  ]
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13-04-2010, 22:14
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Re: Trends
8 declared to run amd of those 4 i was going to take at closer look at only RECHARGE has not been declared.
PALAVICINI is trained by J DUNLOP who has only had 1 winner from 33 runners in the past 4 seasons in 4yo+ races while J FORTUNE has had 3/28 wins on Dunlops older horses. The trainer , whilst once of the top yards in the country has seen their fortunes drop in Group races over the seasons . The yard has only had 3 runners on the turf so far with a 3rd the best placing Only 7 Group wins in 4 seasons and NONE in 4yo+ races. The horse himself has a record at Newmarket of 2,2[listed],1[listed],3 [G3]. He has won at G3 level over 9f at York and 2 of his 3 wins have been on the forecasted going of G/F. I have doubts about the yard and think the horse may need this run . SANS FRONTIERE is the mount of Frankie Dettori who has strike-rate of 28% when riding for J NOSEDA [24% on his 4yo+ runners] They have had a winner from 9 runners in the past 14 days , albeit it was on the AW , but a 2nd and 3rd from 5 on Turf shows that his runners faring not to badly... It's hard to judge how good the horse is as he has only ran 3 times , winning his Maiden at Lingfield [Turf] , then a very good 2nd in the Craven to DELEGATOR . That was followed by a 3rd[ btn 1l] in the G2 Dante . Everything will depend on how fit the horse is as i can only assume he has had his problems in training. The going should not be a concern imo. SRI PUTRA has ran at a consistently high grade most of his career from Listed to G1's . He has won at G2 and G3 grade , at 8f +10f and all 4 wins were on Good ground. If we take out his G1's [clearly not good enough and runs on Soft going his career record reads 1,1,0,1,1,5. M JARVIS won a Listed race at Nottingham last week and as well as an AW win he seems to have his yard in good nick but interestingly both those winners were ridden F DETTORI and he was on when the horse won his G2 at Deauville. Summary - Looking at these 3 , i'm inclined to take out PALAVICINI for the reasons given above about the trainer/ stable form. He does have a liking for Newmarket which is a strong positive sign but Group 3 is probably this one's level imo. The fact that Dettori has a winning record on the horse and the stable but has chosen [ if he had the choice i assume] another to ride looks as though SRI PUTRA may be up against it here . Certainly capable of a place on his best form though. SANS FRONTIERE therefore gets the nod here . Provided he is fit enough , remember this will only be his 4th run despite being a 4yo , and there's no doubting he was highly thought of as a 3yo and showed it on his 2 runs in very good company .
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14-04-2010, 23:06
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Re: Trends
SANS FRONTIERE is around the 4/1 mark so
 for tomorrow .SATURDAY - NEWBURY - 2.0 - 12f - Group 3 [formerly the John Porter Stks] ------------------------------------------------------- 13/14 had been placed in a Group race , 8 had won at Group level . 13/14 had already won over 12f 12/14 were making their seasonal debuts 12/14 were aged 4-6y old 10/10 with a BHB rating were rated 108 or better . Taking out those rated UNDER 108 takes out no less than 10 of the 17 entries. Of those left only CLOWANCE has not won over the 12f but she has ran 3 times in G1 company [12f,14f and 16f ] so i would not dismiss her chance too quickly on that score. HALICARNASSUS has won 3 Gorup races but the last was over in turkey and the other 2 were back in 2007 . His did win only a 64k handicap over in Meydan in March but it's my opinion he's not good enough nowadays to take this race , esp giving weight away to every other runner . Unless they have turned things around 180% , GODOLPHIN's poor record in early season races turns me against CLAREMONT , if they have fair enough but i'll take my chance on droping this one . That leaves - AKMAL , ALLIED POWERS , PURPLE MOON , TRAFFIC GUARD , HARBINGER and CLOWANCE to consider . If the last named is declared i'll have a closer look at the Fillies record in this race.
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15-04-2010, 20:17
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Re: Trends
Quote:
1ST - SRI PUTRA @ 11/2 . SANS FRONTIERE unp @ 6/1. The selection drifted out from 4's last night to 6/1 , while the winner got a lead up the middle of the track and held on to beat Tranquil Tiger while PAVALICHINI kept on for 3rd . So got it down to the winner and the 3rd but the money was elsewhere  .
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15-04-2010, 22:49
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Re: Trends
Quote:
With regards to the record of Fillies , it is 2 wins and a 3rd from 11 runners in the past 14 runnings . One of those 2 winners was a 20/1 shot . Unfortunately the RP does not give ratings past 1999 but up until then all the Fillies that had ran were rated under 108. The 2 winners had won at Listed level , along with 3 btn Fillies so it looks favourable for CLOWANCE on the sex angle  With the current going described as GOOD and temperatures of 14/15 degrees with no rain forecast the ground could end up G/F . With that in mind i'm taking out CLOWANCE as she has ran only twice on GOOD ground and 4 times on Soft/Heavy . She has won on Good but in a time 6.7secs slower than the standard so i'm thinking it might be a bit lively out there for her on Saturday . The going should suit all remaining 4 . ALLIED POWERS has won a Listed [Handicap] race and been placed in G2+3 events . That Listed [handicap] win was at Hamilton over 12f and his Group placings were over 10f. He has won at 12f 3 times but i get a niggly doubt that he could be found wanting at that distance in this class of race . 2 of his 5 wins were on Heavy going and his other 2 wins were in Cl 3/4 grade . Not good enough for me here , despite the stable having winners this week. PURPLE MOON has not been seen on the course since 28th march last year and despite his honourable runs abroad in G1's and 2's he has onlt won at Listed grade and that was back in 2007. Won on his 2yo debut but his 3 seasonal debuts since have all been defeats - 4,5,4. AKMAL has won 4 of his last 5 outings with the first being a Cl 2 and he finished with victory in a G3 He started off rated 77 last season and ended up on 108 . 4/7 wins were on ground described as G/F or Firm the other 3 were on Good . That was the good news the bad news is that those 4 wins were over 14f and 16f. In fact the further he went last season the better he was . DUNLOP'S horses at Newmarket have proved he can still train Group winners [ despite my doubts] I expect to see him doing his best work at the end of this race as Newbury's long home straight will suit him down to the ground but he must surely need a couple of furlongs more to show his best ?? TRAFFIC GUARD has won over 12f on G/F and has certainly improved since moving from J C-HYAMS stable to the COLE yard but there lies the problem as this stable has had 25 runners on the AW and on the Flat this season and they have only one 3rd place to show for it . One Trend i left to this point is the fact that 4 of the last 13 last ran in the ST SIMON stakes over C/D the previous season. HARBINGER was 3rd in that race last October. He has only ran 5 times , winning a G3 at Goodwood as well as that 3rd on ground that probably had too much give in it. STOUTE has had 4 winners in the past 14 days and has won this race twice in the past 13 runnings. I think this horse has the Class and ability to win and the yard has been in good form so he's the selection with AKMAL sure to be running on for a place.
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21-04-2010, 21:22
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Re: Trends
HARBINGER 1st @ 11/2
 NOT a main Trends bet , but some strong stats from previous winners - Thursday - BEVERLEY 3.00 1M 3Y-OLD+ MAIDEN 8/8 was won by a 3y-old. 8/8 were trained at NEWMARKET. 7/8 had a previous outing . 7/7 with a previous run had ran only once or twice before. ALL had last ran over 7f/1m. I'M FRANK , RED CHINA BLUES , SWITCHED OFF and ACCAMELIA are all older than 3. DEFENCE OF THE REALM , LAW TO HIMSELF , ONE MORE TICO , TAMARILLO GROVE , WOLF ROCK and LUCKY BELLE are all making their racecourse debut's here. That leaves BIN SHAMARDAL and WULFRIDA who have both had 2 previous runs and ran over 7/8f LTO. Although B Hills trains at Lambourn and not Newmarket [as FANSHAWE does ] i certainly wouldn't discard his runner because of that . The fact that not a lot of fillies beat the colts at this time of the season push's me in the direction of BIN SHAMARDAL [who i suspect will start 1st or 2ndFav] and the yard seems to coming into form .
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22-04-2010, 20:13
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Re: Trends
genius.
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22-04-2010, 20:29
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Re: Trends
Thanks for the Thanks Vincent
.GIF "Thumb(1)") 1st - BIN SHAMARDAL @ 2/1  2nd - WULFRIDA .
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24-04-2010, 13:01
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Re: Trends
3.35 Leicester - 7f Listed , 4yo+ Leicestershire Stakes
------------------------------------------------------- This used to be a Group 3 race up until 2003 , after that it became a Listed event . But the main stats seem to remain so here goes . 13/13 were in the top 4 in the market 12/13 were Southern trained 12/13 were in the top 2 rated horses. 11/11 were rated 105+ Last time out 8 had ran outside the UK , 3 ran at Newmarket and 2 ran in a Conditions race at Warwick . 7 of the last 9 winners had won at Group level , all 9 had won at Listed/Group class. 0/13 were Fillies/mares. BAGUTTA SUN [no OH Rating ] and ISHIADANCER [rated only 82] are 'Northern' so there are removed . On the subject of Ratings OCEANS' MINSTREL [99] , SPIRIT OF SHARJAH [94] and CARCINETTO [88] are all well below the preferred 105+. That leaves us with the remaining 2 runners to study and of those 2 LIGHT FROM MARS has only ran once at Listed level and that was when a well beaten 4th in the Doncaster Mile last Saturday. His best win has been at Cl 2 grade but in the last 14 days the stable has not been at it's best with only two 3rd's from 9 runners . That leaves what i suspect will quite a short-odds Fav in the shape of ALYARF who hails from the B Hills stable , who are getting into gear now. A win over this distance [7f] at Listed grade followed his 4th behind DELEGATOR in last seasons Craven Stakes -Grp 3. A negative is that he hasn't been seen on the track since that win back in May 2009 [336 days] , but he is top rated by 9lb's , won on G/F and should have a very real chance of taking this . SANDOWN 3.45 8f Group 2 4yo+ Bet 365 Mile ----------------------------------------------- 12/14 were returned 1st/2nd or 3rd Fav . 12/14 were aged 4 or 5 yo [6yo+ have accounted for 29 of the 116 runners in those 14 runnings . 12/12 won at least a Listed race 10/10 were rated 109 - 124 9/12 had won at least Group 3 level 8/11 was one of the top 2 rated horses No mare/Filly has won in the last 12 runnings R HANNON [4] and M STOUTE [2] have won the last 6 runnings of this race. FAREER rated only 100 and the outsider of the field is first to go . THE CHEKA just a 1lb below the preferred lower level in the ratings but is around 12/1 and has never won above Cl 3 , a decent 2nd in a G3 still not enough for this imo. PRINCE OF DANCE may well be an improving animal but has never won at Group level and this is a mighty big step up. PRESSING is now a 7yo and around 14/1. BEACON LODGE is sitting around 14/1 and 3 of his 4 wins have been on ground with SOFT in the ground description , something that will not happen tomorrow . Of the remaining 4 , CAT JUNIOR is one i couldn't bet with confidence he generally has always one or several too good for him with only 2 wins from 16 runs in all grades from Cl 3 to G1 . He did win at Meydan in a G3 but that was the first time he had blinkers on and the race after he ran true to form in 9th place in a G2 . Not good enough and probably a tad ungenuine imo. BORDER PATROL could run well if he handles the going in this grade of race , 2 of his 4 wins have been on Soft and last time out his 3rd at St Cloud was on Heavy . I think he may just lack the pace to win but wouldn't put anyone off a place bet . As the Trends pointed out we're left with the 1st and 2nd fav who are top and joint 3rd top rated , PACO BOY is from the HANNON yard while CONFRONT represents STOUTE . PACO BOY proved quite a few , inc myself, when he won over a mile for the first time in this race last year [ he also took the 8f QUEEN ANNE Stakes at Rayal Ascot ] He is a Group 1 winning horse running in a Group 2 race , a class in which none of his rivals have won. Cours and ground will suit and the stableis in cracking form . CONFRONT has had a recent run over in Dubai which should have brought him on , fitness-wise. A winner at G3 grade he also has a couple of narrow defeats in G2 company. Distance and going should be no problem and STOUTE also has his stable in great from. But he still is rated 9lb inferior to PACO BOY and i'm afraid it's another short-odds Fav that gets the selection . PACO BOY should be hard to beat if fit enough to do justice first-time -out. SANDOWN 4.15 - Group 3 10f 4yo+ Gordon Richards Stakes --------------------------------------------------------------- 13/14 were 4 or 5yo, there were very few older horses so possibly not the strongest stat. 12/14 were returned in the top 3 in the betting [clear + jt 1/2/3 favs] 12/13 were previous winners over 10f [ 2008 winner had been btn just under 1l in the only 10f race it had contested. 10/11 were rated 110+ The last 8 winners had won at Group 3 or better. M STOUTE has won it 4 times in the past 14 runnings. Keeping it to the top 3 in the betting seems sensible so out goes STEEL TANGO , TRANQUIL TIGER , REDWOOD and SOUL CITY. CROWDED HOUSE has never won over 10f [ further would appear to suit imo] and had neevr won since taking the Racing Post Trophy back in 2008. Looking at the type of races he has contested this is a nice drop down in class for him and he must have a decent chance of taking this G3 especially with the stable in such good form. GLASS HARMONIUM probably still has a decent race in him , whether it's today remains to be seen . A winner over the distance on G/F at Ascot [Listed] , that is one of his 2 career victories , he has to improve to have a chance of taking this . Maybe just need to run today ?? LAAHEB like Crowded House , has never won above Listed Grade , but this is his distance and Ground . Won at Listed grade and sure to improve this season but i'm going to stick with a horse who has won at the top grade. CROWDED HOUSE has won at G1 and been a close 2nd in G3'S [ albeit in Dubai. Hopefully the 10f will not pose a problem and fitness should not be a worry after 3 runs at Meydan .
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25-04-2010, 13:25
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Re: Trends
PACO BOY 1st @ 11/10f
CROWDED HOUSE 4th @ 9/4 jtFav  ALYARF unp , this one's fate was foretold in the betting market , slight odds-on on Friday night with Betfair , he opened at 6/4 and drifted right out to 11/4  5.05 BATH - 5f11yds - Listed - 3yo+ ----------------------------------- 11/11 were rated 88+ 10/11 were returned at 12/1 or Under 6/11 had won at LISTED level , 4 other had ran at Listed grade and been btn under 4l or less . 7/11 were 4 or 5 yolds , 3 were three y-olds . 7/11 ran at Listed/Group class LTO . ANGUS NEWZ , IRREPRESIBLE , RAMAMARA are all rated below the preferred 88+. ATLANTIC CYCLE has only ran 4 times , none of which were Listed or better , is around 18/1 . Big improvemet needed but i doubt it's good enough. GILT EDGE GIRL has never won above Cl 3 grade and that was on the AW , best win on the turf was a Cl 5 , also the yard has been toiling to get a winner in the past fortnight . GOLDEN DESTINY has only won at Cl 3 level and 3 of his 5 wins have been over 6f , the other 2 were at Sandown [ stiff 5f i believe ] On the plus side he loves the Firm going but P MAKIN has had only 6 [1 win] runners in 2010 , none in the past 14 days so it's hard to gauge how well his inmates are . Has taken 3/4 runs in the past to come to winning form and i fear this 5f could be a bit sharp for him. TOMINTOUL SINGER has ran only 4 times , winning a Cl 5 over 5f , but LTO was btn under 2l in a 6f Listed race at Newmarket . That Folkestone win was run nearly 1 sec faster than standard [ G/F ] CECIL has been finding the winners enclosure and he does not have many runner at Bath. With only 8 runners i doubt the draw will not make too much of a difference . I am going for TOMINTOUL SINGER to make a winning seasonal debut from ANGLEZARKE , the weight allowance is in his favour and he should appreciate the Firm going better than most . ANGLEZARKE has not won above Cl2 grade but has been placed in Listed , G2 and G1 class . All 3 career wins have been over 5f , once on G/F. Has won both times on his seasonal debut and the stable is in good form . __________________
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25-04-2010, 17:36
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Re: Trends
1st - GLIT EDGE GIRL
TOMINTOUL SINGER unp
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25-04-2010, 22:10
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Re: Trends
Selections - 12
Wins - 4 Profit = 12.96pts Weds - ASCOT 3.55 - 2M Grp 3 4yo+ Sagaro Stks --------------------------------------------------- 12/14 had won at LISTED grade 11/14 had won over 16f , while the other 3 had won at 14/15f 8/10 with a rating were rated 108+ 0/13 were Mares/Fillies [ none are entered for Weds race]
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26-04-2010, 21:45
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Re: Trends
Weds - ASCOT 3.55 - 2M Grp 3 4yo+ Sagaro Stks
--------------------------------------------------- 12/14 had won in at least LISTED grade 11/14 had won over 16f , while the other 3 had won at 14/15f 8/10 with a rating were rated 108+ 0/13 were Mares/Fillies [ none are entered for Weds race][/quote] Quite a few rated below the 108 mark - AAJEL [100] , BALKAN KNIGHT [101], ELECTROLYSER [98] , MONTAFF [102] and OASIS KNIGHT [104] . A couple on 106 but i'll include them for now. ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE has never won beyon 12f and is one of those on 106 so out he goes on those 2 points. MOJAVE MOON has also never won beyond 12f and wears a visor which is a negative for me. YES MR PRESIDENT has never won above Cl 2 and has won twice on Ground with Soft in the title , another was on the AW . I would tend to think he's a bit to find if troubling the judge imo. That leaves us with ASKAR TAU and AKMAL to consider . ASKAR TAU has won 2 G2'S , twice over the 16f and 3 times on G/F ground. One concern is that he has not ran for 185 days and never won on his 3 seasonal debuts. AKMAL has won a G3 over 16f , has won 4 times on ground considered G/F or Firm. He ran 11 days ago when well btn in the John Porter Stakes at Newbury but that was over an inadequate 12f and i get thye impression that was a pipe-opener for this one . Not a lot to separate these 2 so i'll leave it to Tuesday evening before making a firm selection.
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