Trends

[jtw1]

WEAPONS AMNESTY 1st @ 10/1

BIG ZEB 1st @ 10/1



Unfortunately Thursday see's a poor day as far as stats are concerned as we have 4 Handicaps , don't do them , and the RyanAir chase which has only been run 5 times .

That leaves the WORLD HURDLE of which the most striking is the fact that, including 2004 all the win/placings have concerned the top 5 in the betting.

Add in 16/19 had won that season , 17/19 were rated over 160 and 22/22 finished in the first 4 last time out .

Apply all 3 Trends and we are left with BIG BUCKS , SENTRY DUTY , TIDAL BAY and TIME FOR RUPERT .

SENTRY DUTY is unproven over 3m as he has never tackled a distance further than 2m5f and ,more importantly, has been well beaten in both previous races at the Festival.

TIME FOR RUPERT could well be one for a place but at this stage of his career where he has only won at Listed grade and never ran at the Festival meeting puts me off his chance .
Slightly under the preferred Rating at 159

BIG BUCKS is a justified odds-on Fav but i'm going for TIDAL BAY @ 3/1 WITHOUT BIG BUCKS

[Seen]

good stuff jtw

[ONEDUNME]

Good stuff as ever mate

[jtw1]

Cheers guys , lets hope for a sucessful last day

At last a well fancied odds-on Fav comes in , pity about TIDAL BAY though


To GOLD CUP DAY
----------------------


TRIUMPH HURDLE
---------------------

13/15 won last time out
14/16 had won at least twice over the sticks
11/12 had race up to 12f on the flat with only one being rated above 80 on the level.
17/19 were returned at 20/1 or UNDER.

Apply the odds / Won LTO + won 2 times over hurdles stats leaves us with

- ADVISOR , ALAIVAN , CARLITO BRIGANTE , OLOFI , SECANT STAR and SOLDATINO .

From those who have ran on the Flat ALAIVAN [110] is over the ratings Trend.
While OLOFI , SECANT STAR and SOLDATINO have never raced on the Flat.

From the 2 left , ADVISOR has only won at Cl 3 grade and may need even more rain that is forecast .
CARLITO BRIGANTE was only rated 74 on the level , has won a G2 and the G/S ground will suit him well .

Stake 10pts - CARLTIO BRIGANTE @ 9/2
Stake 5pts - ADVISOR @ 6/1





GOLD CUP
------------

55/57 that ran in a previous GC have not won
17/19 that completed the course LTO were placed 1st , 2nd or 3rd.
16/19 were returned at 20/1 or UNDER
15/16 were aged 7-9y old
10/12 were placed at a previous Festival


Well the stats say KAUTO STAR is up against it , but i do believe that once in a while a special horse comes along who defies the norm , and this is one of those horses.
So i'm basically looking for the 2nd and in COOLDINE i think i could have found it .
With the majority of the field ruled out by the odds , age , placed LTO and previous run in the GC Stats i'm left with the nap and TRICKY TRICKSTER .

Rated 6lb's higher than the Nichols runner COOLDINE to place is a decent bet . but i can't see anything [ barring the obstacles or injury beating the Fav ]




FOXHUNTERS
----------------

Only 2 of the past 18 were aged 10+ , despite the majority of runners being from that group.
16/21 won last time out.
7/11 were Irish bred , the last UK bred winner was back in 2002.
Only 2 of the past 21 were ex-Handicappers [ with the exception of those trained by P NICHOLS ]

Ignoring those over 9 yo , didn't win LTO and the ex-Hnadicappers in the race leaves us with GENTLE GEORGE , CHESTNUT ANNIE and SERICINA

SERICINA - 10pt win @ 11/1
GENTLE GEORGE - 5pt ew @ 20/1
CHESTNUT ANNIE - 5pt ew @ 28/1

[jtw1]

No luck on the final at the Festival

The Flat starts next week and to get us in the mood here's the Trends for the 7f Listed event at Lingfield tomorrow -


3.00 7f Listed 3 y-olds
---------------------------

7/7 were in the top 4 in the betting
7/7 had won at least once in their career , 5 won Last time out .
7/7 were rated 93+

There are 7 left after taking into account the market .
All 7 have won at least once .
KONA COAST was only rated 93 when well beaten in a Listed race at Meydan and HADEETH is only rated 90 so both are out .

All the remaining 6 should or have find the 7f to their liking .

CLASSIC COLORI has ran only twice and was beaten last time in a G3 on Soft ground at Newbury .
Was possibly badly drawn in the conditions that day.
His yard have had 5 winners from 24 runners in 2010.

DUPLICITY ran his first 2 races over 7f but only won when dropped back to 6f.
His 5th in a G3 over in France LTO was also over 6f.
R HANNON has had 7 wins from 34 runners on the AW in 2010 .
He has ran once on the AW at Kempton .


GREYFRIARSCHORISTA is on a 4-timer but his best win was in a Class 3 Handicap.
No doubt he has been running in a grade or 3 lower than his best as his odds and winning distances will tell you but this is still a big jump up in class .
There have been 22 runners from those who have finished behind GREYFRIARS in his 3 wins but only 1 horse has managed to win [ he was making his career debut when 2nd behind GREYFRIARS ].

HANSON'D won his 2nd race when odds-on in a Cl 4 at AYR .
That followed his promising debut in a Cl 2 at York , he was well beaten in the Racing Post Trophy @ 50/1.
The stable has been putting the winners by steadily this year on the AW.

JIRA has been highly tried after winning a Listed race at Newmarket in June.
4th in a G3 at Ascot [btn under 3l] , 8th[btn 8l] in the Sweet Solera and a 4th [btn just over 2l ] in a Listed race when slow out of the stalls was then followed by a close 3rd in a Cl2 at NMKT and finally came a 6l beating behind the odds-on LILLIE LANGTRY in a 433k Cl 2 Stakes event at NMKT.
Bred to stay every inch of the 7f .
Seb Saunders has a 24% strike-rate for C BRITTAIN on his 3y-olds and the trainer himself has had a 33% stike-rate in the month of March for the past 2 seasons.

Summary - CLASSIC COLORI may just need the race and i doubt he is up to this class
DUPLICITY won when dropped in distance and on Soft going last season .
GREYFRIARSCHORISTA has ran well this season but takes a big jump in class here , i doubt he is up to it.
HANSON'D has a dcent EW chance afetr his 2nd at York and easy win at AYR .
JIRA has been tried at a level just above todays and has ran well enough to suggest that , providing she can handle the surface , she has the class to win this .
Bred for 7f , a trainer in form [won this last season] and a jockey who has ridden well for the yard leads me to believe that the 10/ 1 on offer is well worth an interest .

[jtw1]

7/7 were returned at 14/1 or under in the betting
6/7 had already won at 10f+
6/7 had ran at least once that calander year with 5 winning and the other finishing 2nd.
The debutant had ran LTO in a G1 .
6/7 had a rating of 104+ [the exception did not have a UK rating ,Italian Trained.
6/7 were aged from 4-6 y old.
4/7 had won at least at Listed grade but since '06 [ became G3 ] it's been 3/4 , the others won at a min of Cl2.

Applying the Odds and Rtaing trends gets rid of DALRADIAN , BON SPIEL , FULL TOSS , JAROSLAW , MISTER GREEN , YAHRAB , OCEANS MINSTREL and BEAUCHAMP VICEROY.
Age takes care of STOTSFOLD and SUITS ME .
SOUL CITY has never won beyond 7f .

Of the 3 that are left TRANQUIL TIGER has not ran this calendar year and his last run was in a Listed event over C/D.
FIERY LAD has ran twice this tear , both btn at Meydan .
5 of his 6 career wins have been at Dundalk so the AW surface should hold no problems but he has only won once at Listed level whereas PALLODIO has a G3 and a Listed win to his name .
4 wins at 10f and 2 of those on an AW course in France means he has a very good chance of a win here .
The stable of J HAMMOND is not known for it's UK raiders and truth be told they have not been too successful with 5 runners producing 0 wins but i'll take a chance at 9/1 on this one breaking their 5 year duck .

[beamer]

I wouldn't be too worried about the 0/5 years stat, as he was a trainer I literally backed blind when coming over.

The years prior to last 5 read:

2005	1/	3	33%
2004	0/	6	—
2002	2/	5	40%
2001	2/	6	33%
2000	4/	9	44%
1999	1/	6	17%

I completely missed his runner today which is worrying as I've backed two others in the race.

Good luck beamer

[jtw1]

JIRA - 4th @ 12/1 .Ran prominently and held every chance , but didn't quicken and faded to 4th .
Possibly not helped by the No 1 stall and maybe the 7f is just beyond her .
Keep an eye out if she reappears at 6f next time .


PALLODIO - 3rd @ 20/1 !! Drifted out from 9's to 20's but ran well enough and was finishing fast but by that time TRANQUIL TIGER had stolen enough of a lead to hold on.
Certainly worth another chance in this grade , maybe unsuited by the short straight here.

[jtw1]

Back to the Flat proper and i''ll be concentrating on All-Aged Listed to Group 1 races but i've had a look at the Lincoln and the 1st 2yo race of the season at Doncaster tomorrow .


2.35 CAMMIDGE TROPHY - 6f Listed race 3yo+

10/11 returned at odds of 16/1 or UNDER.
11/12 ran in at least LISTED company LTO.
1/11 had ran on AW LTO.
9/11 were aged 4-6yo [ 35 7yo+ horses have ran with only one win ]
9/11 had won at least at Class 2 level

DRAW - It's the HIGH numbers which could hold the key if there are over 15 runners and the going is on the easy side of Good .
17 ran in 2008 [g/s] - 16,9,17 were the first 3 home
17 ran in 2004 [good] - 16,17,12 were the first 3 home
16 ran in 2001 [soft] - 10,16,9 were the first 3 home .

Ok lets try and use the Trends we know about so far and withe going looking like being SOFT that usually means that HIGH numbers will have an advantage so lets remove stalls 1-7

ABLE MASTER , ARTHURS EDGE , EVENS AND ODDS , TAX FREE , ISABELLA GRAY , PUSEY STREET LADY and STAR ROVER .

Next remove those who DID NOT run in at LISTED company LTO -

BARNEY MCGREW , DAMIEN , FITZ FLYER and PRIME DEFENDER .

Next take out the one runner left who has not won at Cl2 or better -

SWISS FRANC.

AGE diminishes the chance of the now 8 y-old FULLANBY .

Summary - Amazingly i'm left with the same scenario this year as i had with the same race last year , that is the 2 who are left would each probably prefer a furlong shorter or further going by their previous form !!
In fact INXILE was one of those runners last year and and after that run i'll stick to my assertion that he is simply not a 6f horse.
ALL 4 of his career wins have been over the minimum 5f , 4 times he has tried the 6f and although placed in 3 of those and a 5th in this last year , he just does not appear to last home.

Therefore i'm looking at REDFORD being the nap .
This one is the opposite to INXILE as his 3 wins have been over 7f [1] and 8f[2]
However i'm impressed with his 10th in the AYR Gold Cup where he was only beaten three and a half lengths and finished 3rd in the stands side group.
He has won on Soft ground , won at Cl2 grade and finished 4th LTO in a Listed event on the AW at Wolves .
Seems to enjoy plenty of runners in his races and i'm hoping that Neil Callan can press the button at just the right time and make the horses fitness tell .

The K RYAN yard has been in good nick recently with 2 winners and 5 placed from 19 runners , of which 15 started at 20/1 or shorter.

Look like he may start Fav @ around 9/2



3.40 BROCKLESBY STAKES 5f 2yo's

11/12 returned at odds of 14/1 or UNDER [only 1 co-Fav]
9/12 were Colts.
10/12 were FEB / MARCH foals.
9/11 were sired by a horse which had an average winning distance [according to Racing Post ] of between 6.6f - 7.7 f [ last years winning sire's not quoted ]
None had average of over 8.9f.

Looking a bit closer into the sex of the winner and although Colts have won the last 8 runnings , Fillies have 3 wins , three 2nd's and eight 3rd places from 57 runners , nearly 30% of all runners.
A filly has been placed between 1st , 2nd and 3rd in 8/11 runnings.
So it would be foolish to discount their chance.
Last year there were 3 Fillies who ran , 2 were priced 66/1 and 100/1 respectively and duly finished out with the washing but the other finished 7th from a poor draw [stall 6 , the first runner to finish from a single No stall]

Draw - Historically its usually either High or Low numbers that prevail .
With 22 due to take part on Saturday i think that High numbers could hold the key.
In past races where there was 18+ runners the first three home were drawn - 14,11,21 [19 ran] 19,14,13 [19 ran] , 10,2,18 [18 ran] , 16,13,12 [18 ran] , 21,8,13 [22 ran]
2 other race had 17 runners , the first 3 home = 15,4,14 + 10,16,11.
Those races were on going ranging from GOOD to SOFT.

Wm TURNER'S runners in this are always worth considering having had a runner in every race since '98 -
7th, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 1st, unp, 3rd, 5th, 1st, unp, 1st and 6th is a decent record for a relatively unfashionable stable imo.

Disapointingly Bill Turner's Filly in this years renewal has been drawn in stall 2 and of the 3 other Fillies entered only one is in what is usually a favorable HIGH draw but she [LEXI'S PRINCESS] has a sire's winning average of 9.1f

Looks like we'll be looking at the Colts for a winner this year and of those drawn in the high numbers eg 9 and over SARANDJAM is a late April foal so thats out.
From the 6 left to consider DIAMOND GEEZER's sire never ran over less than 7f [ won 3 times at that dist ] so this may be too sharp for him.
Similarly MIRROR LAD is by Proclamation who was a miler and also never ran under 7f .
LAS VERGLAS STAR's sire has a wining ave of 9.1f

Of the 3 left i fancy B Hills to make his usual good starts to the Flat by winning this with SQUIRE'S GATE .
May start fav but being drawn 16 of 16 , is by a sprinting sire and the stable have had a winner and a 2nd from 4 runners in the past 14 days on the AW.
His sire also won on an easy surface [ twice on Yielding at The Curragh ]

Both the sire's of the other 2 , CHISWICK BEY and MAYHAB , appeared to have prefered a firmer surface but if they do act on it will have a chance but i'll stick with the selection.

[jtw1]

The LINCOLN
-------------
14/14 had won over 8f+
13/14 were aged 4-6yo[only one winner aged over 6 in the past 22 runnings ]
13/14 were Southern trained
12/14 were returned at 22/1 or UNDER
12/14 carried 9:00 MAX
10/14 had won at least at Cl 2 grade

and as Billy The Punter has pointed out 10/13 were rated higher here than their last Handicap win.
The biggest priced winner has been 33/1 [5 times] since '80 so it seems pointless to look at any over those odds .
Also the 5 favs to have won since '80 have done so in the last 11 runnings of the race .
Runners drawn 13 or under have won the last 7 of the previous 8 runnings at Doncaster.

1st - take out the 'no-hopers @ 40/1 +
2nd - take out the older generation , 7yo+
3rd - take out those who have failed to win over at least 8f
4th - the weight carried by the winner has been rising over prev seasons so i'll remove only the top weight as only one winner in the past 24 has carried over 9:05
5th - take out the Northerner's
6th - take out the over 13's [ stalls wise ]
7th - take out the non-improvers [ those with a lower OR than their last H'cap win ] :doesn't affect the remaining 4:
8th - take out those who have not won below Cl 2 [ thats PENITENT out]

That leaves just 2 , VIVA VETTORI who i don't think will handle the going [ 3 wins , all on the AW ] so i'll pin my hopes on LANG SHINING as it's about time for another 33/1 shot
A winner of a Cl2 on Soft going at Newbury [ straight course i assume ?] and has won 1st time out twice in his career .
Although without a win last season i beleive there were valid excuses -
1st run - 9th in a Listed Handicap @ York where 7 of the 8 who finished in front of him were drawn lower.
2nd - Unp in the Eclipse , need i say more.
3rd - A decent 4th of 17 in a Cl 2 @ York carrying 4lb more than here .
4th + 5th races were over 10f [ never won beyond 8f]
6th and last outing - btn just over 5l in the AYR Gold Cup , rated 2lb higher than today.
He is carrying 6lb more than his last H'cap win.

At those odds an EW bet is advisable

[jtw1]

CAMMIDGE - Typical !! get it down to 2 and then INXILE wins actually running away for the 1st time over 6f while REDFORD runs an absolute stinker.

[oliverj87]

This has been a great read, well the bits that I have read, there is far too many pages!
Keep it up & I'll carry on following with interest.

-----------------------------------------

amanthatlays.com

[jtw1]

NOTT- 3.50 - 1m6f LISTED STAKES - 4yo+ .
--------------------------------------------------

This has been run 7 times previously so just enough runnings to catch the eye .
The 2007 renewal was won by a 20/1 shot but was times at 9.35 secs above the ave on GOOD/FIRM going so that result has to be taken with a pinch of salt .


6/7 were in the top 4 in the betting
6/7 were Southern trained
6/7 were rated 92+
6/7 had won at least twice [the '07 winner only had won win to it's name]
6/7 won over 12f+ , the other was btn a half length in a 12f race .
3 had won at Grp 3 /Listed level and the other 4 had finished under 6l behind the winner in Grp3/Listed company.

Removing those 20/1 or over takes out HALLA SAN , SHIPMASTER , RAINCOAT , CARNAC and DEPORTMENT.

When it comes to the Northern Trainers i always give M JOHNSTON's runners a bit of leeway as , imo , they are generally a better class of horse compared to his neighbours.

MONTAFF has only won once and that was in a CL4 event over 8f.

All those left are rated over 92 , have won at least twice and have won over 12f+.

Which leaves the Class angle to work on -

SWINGKEEL has neevr won above CL 3 and 2 of his 3 wins were on G/F ground , which he certainly is not going to get tomorrow .
The other win was on the AW.
He did finish 2nd [sh-hd] on Soft ground on his reappearance last season but that was in a CL 4 Handicap and he has went up 18lb since.

OPINION POLL has never won [or ran] above CL2 grade and is 15lb higher in the weights than for his seasonal debut last year .
Only a 4y-old so there could still be improvement to come and has won on Heavy + G/S.
The Jarvis stable has only had 2 runners on the Turf so far but both were fairly well beaten [ 7/2 and 12's in the betting ]

That leaves 2 and DRILL SERGEANT ,although never winning above Cl2 grade , has ran close in G2 and Listed company.
He has won over 12f but his other 2 wins were over 10f and being by Rock Of Gibraltar i feel the shorter distance is more up his street .
A winner on Soft and G/S [Both 10f ] he ran predominently on much better going last season.

With so many niggly doubts about DRILL SERGEANT i'm nominating TASTAHIL to win this .
He has won a Listed event over 13f on Soft , as well as a 2nd and 3rd on Soft in a couple of G3's last season.
He finished over 8l in front of DRILL SERGEANT in one of those races and beat the same horse over 12f giving 2lb to the 2nd and was noted as staying on while DRILL SERGEANT had 'No Extra'.
One negative is the yards poor start to the Flat , by their usual standards , but i'm hoping that will change tomorrow .

10pts @ 3.8 will do me fine

[jtw1]

TASTAHIL last @ 5/2 , something amiss there imo.

Sunday - THE CURRAGH 3.45 - Grp 3 Gladness Stakes - 7f - 4yo+ .

10/11 were in the top 5 in the betting
9/11 were 7f winners , other 2 had won at 8f .
9/11 had won at Listed/Group level
8/9 with a rating were rated 105+
6/9 with course experience had won at least once at The Curragh.


7 runners today and as with the case of the majority of these Group races it's the outsiders that are 1st to go , so remove CROISULTAN , KARGALI and THE TOOTH FAIRY.

All 4 left have all won at 7f and are Rated over 105 .

Again all 4 have won in Listed company at least , however JUMBAJUKIBA is now a 7yo who may well be on the downturn nowadays .
I'm certain he'll give his usual game front-running race but the other 3 have more scope for improvement and i think he'll find 1 or 2 a bit better .

The remaining 3 have all won on Soft/Heavy ground and the stables have all had winners in the past 14 days .

VOCALISED is from the J BOLGER yard , he won his first 3 runs are a 3yo last season before going astray in the French 2000 and disappointing over what was probably an inadequate 6f in his last 2 runs.
If he still has the abilty he will have a good chance here as he has won over C/D but i've a niggly doubt about the stable form so far despite a couple of recent wins , both of which were on the AW .
One had a previous run and the other held on by a neck .

RAYENI represents the J OXX stable who have been in good form lately with 3 wins and 3 placed from 9 runners in the past fortnight .
He has a G3 win to his name and was 2nd in the Irish 2000.
He never ran again until Sep after which he won a Listed race over 6f here.
In his last outing he was beaten 2l by the remaining runner today , LIBANO.
He was receiving 2ld from that runner and is getting an extra 1lb today , whether that will be enough remains to be seen.

Ex-Italian LIBANO completes the trio who took a couple of runs to find his form after moving from Italy he has won a G3 in his native land as well as that Listed win against RAYENI .
the Heavy going will not be a concern here as he had 3 wins on ground classed as such.
The D WELD yard has had a couple of winners , interestingly they were 3yo's while 14 runners aged 4+ have been beaten [ OXX has ran only 2 older horses this season ]
Still weighted to beat RAYENI he appeals at better odds than the Fav.

A tricky race with any of the 3 mentioned in with a shout , however until VOCALISED has shown he's retained his previous abilty i'm going for the WELD runner to confirm form over the distance and ground over RAYENI.

10pt win LIBANO @ 9/4

[jtw1]

3.10 LONGCHAMP G2 4yo+ 10f
-----------------------------

12/12 returned at odds up to 15/1 , 3 outright Favs .
11/12 had all won at Group level , the other had won a Listed race.
11/12 ran in Group company LTO.
10/12 were 4 yo's despite older horses representing approx 33% of the runners [ 34/93] the other 2 were 5yo's
9/12 had won over 10f , 3 others had won over 9f and 12f.

An interesting stat is that 6 previous winners has last ran in the G3 PRIX EXBURY at St Cloud in March.

Odds wise the only horse to be excluded today is VALIDOR.
LA BOUM is a 7 yo.
THE BOG BERRY is a 5yo and just on the odds limit , just enough to be dropped from here .
There are 2 other 5 yo's but they are the only runners to have competed in the Prix Exbury , STARLISH is one of those but despite that run and the fact he has won at G3 level he does appear to be fully exposed and the 5 runs he has had in G1/2 grade have resulted in only 1 placeing and that was as a 3yo.
The other 5yo is COUNT CANIBAL and he has the same problem for me as STARLISH in the fact that he has won at G3 but generally disappointed at anyhting higher.

3 left -

CUTLASS BAY has only ran 3 times but each was a win over 10f, the last one a G2 .
A FABRE is well on form with 7 winners in the past 14 days .
One worry is the fact he has not see a racecourse since MAY but with a 100% race record i'm sure he'll be as fit as possible for this one.

ON EST BIEN is probably still on the upgrade as made progession from a Maiden win to G3 in 5 runs , the only blot was his 2nd outing on ground which would appear to have been too fast for him over 7f.
The stable has had a couple of winners recently but this one has not ran for a full YEAR but has won on both seasonal debuts .

CELIMENE was 4th in the French Oaks last season after winning her first 3 races , Maiden to G3 .
Something would appear to have went wrong in her next run [German Oaks] where she finished well down the field but she bounced back to take a G2 at St Cloud on her last run of last season.
She has won on her previous 2 seasonal debuts .
2 previous winners were Fillies so not too worried on that score , but her yard is not exactly firing right now , o wins from 6 runners .

Another tricky one today !! , ON EST BIEN has been off the track for a year now and that is enough for me to have doubts .
CELEMINE would have got the vote if her stable had a couple of winners to their name but with A FABRE in such good form i'm going for CUTLASS BAY to make it 4 from 4 .
Obviously doesnt take a lot of racing for whatever reason , hence the fact i'm prepared to let him off with a 334 day break , so i'll trust that the trainer has him fit enough to do justice today .

8pt win - CUTLASS BAY @ 2.42
2pt win - CELEMINE @ 7.2

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