Trends

[jtw1]

2nd again last week .

DONCASTER St Leger
------------------------

11/12 ran last time out in either the GORDON Stakes at Goodwood or the Great Voltigeur at YORK and were placed no worse than 4th [7 won]
12/12 were returned at 8/1 or under [ 8 clear and jt favs]

There's no need to go any further as those 2 stats are pretty strong imo

CHANGINGOFTHE GUARD ,KITE WOOD , VONJAWLENSKY and MOURAYAN did not run in either of those 2 races LTO.
ABOVE AVERAGE was unp LTO.
MASTERY is 14/1 in the betting .

5pt win - MONITOR CLOSELY 4/1 generally available
5pt win - FATHER TIME 7/1 Sporting Bet

[jtw1]

Some distinctly strong stats in the SUN CHARIOT STAKES at NEWMARKET on Saturday

18 of the last 20 winners were 3year olds
12/13 finished in the first 3 LTO
11/12 were returned at single figures in the betting .
Since it was upgraded to Grp 1 standard in 2004 , all those 5 winners had already won at Grp grade .

Take out the Older horses - ALNADANA , EVA'S REQUEST , HEAVEN SENT , SAHPRESSA and SPACIOUS .
From the remaining Five 3-yold's , LALAHEEB finished 5th LTO while NASHMIAH and STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI have only won at LISTED grade.

That leaves us with GHANAATI and FANTASIA .
ATTRACTION won both the 1000 + SUN CHARIOT back in 2004 but she has been the only one to do the double in the past 13 years and with 8 of the past 13 winners having been victorious LTO [GHANAATI was 3rd ] i think that FANTASIA @ 4/1 is a decent shout to win this Grp 1 event .

[jtw1]

Could tell FANTASIA's fate a few strides out of the stalls

Here's some stats for the Arc .....

1 - The last 15 runnings have been won by 3 y-olds no fewer than 12 times.

2 - 11 of the last 13 winners had WON last time out .

3 - Since 1987 11 winners had ran in the Prix Neil LTO.

4 - A FABRE has won the race 7 times since '87

5 - 12 of the last 13 winners were returned in single figures in the betting.

6 - 12 of the past 13 had all won at least once in Group 1 company .

7 - 13 / 13 had ran no later than 6 weeks previously .

8 - 64/87 runnings have been won by a FRENCH TRAINED HORSE .

Going by the starting price of the past winners it would be wise to concentrate on the top 7 in the market , who are -

SEA THE STARS , FAME AND GLORY , CONDUIT , CAVALRYMAN and VISION D'ETAT , YOUMZAIN and STACELITA.

Looking closely i see that CONDUIT has not run for 10 weeks , is a 4 yold and if you take out GODOLPHINS 3 wins , it's been 21 years since a British trainer won the race so , all in all, thats enough for me to overlook this one.

VISION D'ETAT is another 4 y-old who i'm bypassing .

If the 6y-old YOUMZAIN wins then i will give the game up [again ]

FAME AND GLORY is the right age , has won Group 1's but probably needs a bit more give in the ground than he will get tomorrow , another for the bin , i feel the same could be said about STACELITA .

SEA THE STARS , one of the best we've seen for a long time but odds-on here ?? Not for me .

That leave's the A FABRE trained , 3 y-old winner of this season's Prix Neil - CAVALRYMAN .
Frankie Dettori knows what it takes to win this race and if i remember the high drawn horse's tend to have an advantage .

At 12/1 i suggest an Each-Way bet as SEA THE STARS should win but racing can be a funny old game .

[jtw1]

The last 13 races have seen the winner in single figures no fewer than 11 times and of those all were drawn 1-7 .

I'm sticking with the EW bet however but ever so slightly less confident that a couple of hours ago

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by jtw1

Could tell FANTASIA's fate a few strides out of the stalls

Here's some stats for the Arc .....

1 - The last 15 runnings have been won by 3 y-olds no fewer than 12 times.

2 - 11 of the last 13 winners had WON last time out .

3 - Since 1987 11 winners had ran in the Prix Neil LTO.

4 - A FABRE has won the race 7 times since '87

5 - 12 of the last 13 winners were returned in single figures in the betting.

6 - 12 of the past 13 had all won at least once in Group 1 company .

7 - 13 / 13 had ran no later than 6 weeks previously .

8 - 64/87 runnings have been won by a FRENCH TRAINED HORSE .

Going by the starting price of the past winners it would be wise to concentrate on the top 7 in the market , who are -

SEA THE STARS , FAME AND GLORY , CONDUIT , CAVALRYMAN and VISION D'ETAT , YOUMZAIN and STACELITA.

Looking closely i see that CONDUIT has not run for 10 weeks , is a 4 yold and if you take out GODOLPHINS 3 wins , it's been 21 years since a British trainer won the race so , all in all, thats enough for me to overlook this one.

VISION D'ETAT is another 4 y-old who i'm bypassing .

If the 6y-old YOUMZAIN wins then i will give the game up [again ]

FAME AND GLORY is the right age , has won Group 1's but probably needs a bit more give in the ground than he will get tomorrow , another for the bin , i feel the same could be said about STACELITA .

SEA THE STARS , one of the best we've seen for a long time but odds-on here ?? Not for me .

That leave's the A FABRE trained , 3 y-old winner of this season's Prix Neil - CAVALRYMAN .
Frankie Dettori knows what it takes to win this race and if i remember the high drawn horse's tend to have an advantage .

At 12/1 i suggest an Each-Way bet as SEA THE STARS should win but racing can be a funny old game .

3rd @ 12/1 beaten by one of the best in many a year , nice to get a return for a change !!

[jtw1]

A few pointers for the Champion Stakes -

1 - 11/13 were 3 or 4 y-olds
2 - 12/13 were returned at 12/1 or under [ only 3 favs ]
3 - 11/13 were placed 1st or 2nd LTO
4 - A O'BRIEN has had 0 wins from 10 runners in 13 seasons
5 - GODOLPHIN have had 0 wins from 19 runners in 13 seasons

Apply these should leave you with 3 to consider -

DOCTOR FREEMANTLE
MAWATHEEQ
SARISKA

Class usually shines through therefore SARISKA must have a good chance if handling the firmer than preferred going .

[jtw1]

St Simon Stake's - Newbury - 2.35 - Grp3
-----------------------------------------------

A few pointers for this race .

First ran in '69 3 y-olds have the best record , age wise, with 22 winners .
4 y-olds have won 12 .
5y-olds+ have won the remaining 5.

The last 21 runnings have seen only 3 returned in double figures , but only3 clear Favs and 1 jt have won.

So looking at any 3/4y-old's that is in single figures in the betting , but NOT Fav , leaves 3 to consider -

ALL THE ACE'S
CHOCK A BLOCK
HIGH HEELED

Personal preference is for HIGH HEELED as Fillies seem to do better at this time of the year imo.

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by jtw1

St Simon Stake's - Newbury - 2.35 - Grp3
-----------------------------------------------

A few pointers for this race .

First ran in '69 3 y-olds have the best record , age wise, with 22 winners .
4 y-olds have won 12 .
5y-olds+ have won the remaining 5.

The last 21 runnings have seen only 3 returned in double figures , but only3 clear Favs and 1 jt have won.

So looking at any 3/4y-old's that is in single figures in the betting , but NOT Fav , leaves 3 to consider -

ALL THE ACE'S
CHOCK A BLOCK
HIGH HEELED

Personal preference is for HIGH HEELED as Fillies seem to do better at this time of the year imo.

1st - HIGH HEELED @ 4/1

[jtw1]

Totesport Trophy -Newbury 13th Feb

Only 1 winner since 1980 has been aged 9yo or over.
14/14 ran at Class 2 or better LTO
13/14 returned at odds no higher than 16/1
13/14 has finished in the first 2 in either of their last 2 runs
13/14 had won at least twice in NH company [ interestingly 7 of the last 9 had won exactly 3 times over NH rules]
13/14 had won at Class 3 or better
8/8 who had Flat experience had won at least one Flat race.

As usual unless there's a major surprise it seem's sensible to look at those around the 20/1 mark or under so thats BLUE BAJAN , MUTUAL FRIEND , SONGE , FIRST POINT , SIMARIAN , RING THE BOSS , FRONTEIR DANCER , EUROPEAN DREAM , FLUSHE JO , PASHA BERE , ARCH REBEL , OLDRIK and CHANINBAR removed from the equation .

TAKEROC , STRAVINSKI DANCE and NUMIDE all failed to make the frame in either of their last 2 runs.

Although a winner LTO , RONALDO DES MOTTES , SPIRIT RIVER and GETMEOUTOFHERE all ran below Cl 2 grade .

ANY GIVEN DAY has only won at Cl4 grade over NH rules .

That leaves 4 to peruse - MAMLOOK , HARRY TRICKER , MANYRIVERSTOCROSS and FAIRYLAND .

Back later

[jtw1]

Although MAMLOOK has won twice over 2m , last time was Apr '08 , he seems to have been aimed at distances further than this 17f in his latest runs with the exception of his 2nd place in the Elite @ Wincanton in Nov .
The going will suit but whether the course and distance will suit is up for discusion .
2 wins at Ascot , a RH track with a stiff uphill finish and sharpish turns and 2 wins at Warwick [ sharp track] and Market Rasen [ sharp , und track ] immediately says to me Newbury will not be ideal for him .
He does have experience of big fields and has been placed in 20+ runner races which has to be an advantage.

HARRY TRICKER has a problem for me in that he has not ran for 90 days and his record for re-appearing after a 60 day break is 6 , 0 , pu .
the ground may just be on the slow side for him as 3 of his 4 career wins [Flat + NH] have come on GOOD going .
The current going f/cast is G/S with soft in place's.

FAIRYLAND comes into the race relatively lightly raced and his record in Hurdle races is impressive -11 runs with 3 wins , 4 seconds and 2 thirds.
He has not run for 77 days but his record after a 60 day+ break is far better than Harry Tricker's - 2 , 2 , 1 , 3 .
He comes from a yard who has won this 4 times in the past 10 runnings.
However one thing that maks me wary is his apparent preference for better ground .
His 2 NH wins have been on Good ground and those were 5 + 7 runner races .
He has ran twice in 20+ runner races and he was not disgraced but he only finished 11th and 8th in them.

MANYRIVERTOCROSS could be anything as he has only had 4 runs in NH company and has won 2 of them.
A decent performer on the Flat his stable seems to be coming to hand but his last 2 runs have been over 20+21f which beggars the question why step back in distance .
If the ground were a bit softer i'd give him a better chance .

SUMMARY - MANYRIVERSTOCROSS may well come home in front as he looks like being well handicapped , more rain might have helped his chance imo but i'm tempted to give the nod to MAMLOOK even though Newbury may not be ideal , he does have winning form on Soft - Good ground and , more importantly he is used to large fields .
The Pipe yard have won this twice in the last 11 runnings .

If the ground were a bit faster i'd have been tempted to go for FAIRYLAND and i'll keep an eye on tomorrow's times in the earlier races ,but as it is right now MAMLOOK is the selection .

[jtw1]

The 2nd race , a 3m Handicap Hurdle , was run only 2 secs below the standard which leads me to believe the ground could well be quick enough for FAIRYLAND .

10pt win - MAMLOOK 9/1 taken yesterday
5pt win FAIRYLAND @ 20.0 with Betfair .

[jtw1]

Racing Post Chase
---------------------

15/15 had won over at least 2m5f
14/15 had ran between 2-4 that season
14/15 were returned in single figure SP's
13/15 were aged between 7-11 year old [ 7 were 8yo]
13/15 were rated 143+
13/14 had won a UK NH race of Class 2 or better
11/15 won last time out
8 were previous Kempton winners , 5 had yet to run at the course and 2 had finished a close 2nd at the track.

Ok lets see what we get here

Fair to say this is a race where the top half of the market prevails so take out OLLIE MAGERN , SOMETHING WELLS , RAZOR ROYALE , BIBLE LORD , PRIVATE BE , PIRAYA and LE BURF .

I would have considered ATOUCHBETWEENACARA and ODPIPE at 14/1 but both have also only ran once this season , and ODPIPE is only rated 136.

FISTRAL BEACH is only rated 132 , 11lbs less than the preferred143+ .

That leaves 3 to pick from , although KILCREA CASTLE has not won a Cl 2 race over here , he has only had one race in the UK.
Similarly being only 1lb below 143 is no great reason to discount his chance .
He has won on Soft/Heavy ground and has won over 24f but they were P-T-P 's .
He invariably finds one to good for him in his races and although placed in G2 + G3 races i wonder if he has the abilty to beat the better horses esp with the stable in a bit of a lull [ only a 3rd place from 13 runners in the past 14 days ]

NACARAT bids to repeat his success in this race last season but i'm yet to be convinced he's enjoying it this season .
First time out he was well beaten in the Haldon Chase [37l] , after that he was PU in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury and then finished a very tired [ btn 41l ] in the King George .
McCOY takes the mount here and he may well bring him back to his best but he'll not carry any of my money .

It's MADISON DU BERLAIS who finished 5l in front of NACARAT in the KG who gets the nod here .
A C/D winner , he generally takes 2 or 3 runs to come to his best and looking at his win record he has won 5 times in Feb or very early March.
The rain-softened ground should suit and has been pointed out in earlier post's the top weight in this race traditionally run well .
I'm happy to take the 8/1 on offer .

[jtw1]

CHAMPION HURDLE
----------------------

1- As with the majority of Championship races to be held at Cheltenham those horses with the best chance of winning the world's premier Hurdle race are normally found within the top 5/6 in the betting market .

GO NATIVE , SOLWHIT , ZAYNAR , MEDERMIT , KHYBER KIM , PUNJABI , BINOCULAR , STARLUCK and CELESTIAL HALO .

2- One stat that is impossible to ignore , not just for this meeting but ANY at Cheltenham , is previous course form and if that happens to be at the Festival meeting then all the better .

BINOCULAR - 2nd [Supreme Nov] 3rd [Champ Hur]
CELESTIAL HALO - 1st JCB Hur] , 2nd [Champ Hur] + 1 other C/D WIN
GO NATIVE - 1st [Supreme Nov]
KHYBER KIM - Two wins at the track but also 2 unp in races at the Festival meeting.
MEDERMIT - 2nd [Supreme Nov ] + two 3rd placings at the course .
PUNJABI - 1st [Champ Hur] 3rd [Champ Hur] 3rd [JCB Hur]
SOLWHIT - Never raced at the course.
STARLUCK - 4th [JCB Triumph] + a 1 C/D WIN.
ZAYNAR - 1st [JCB Hur] + 1 other C/D WIN

Doubts are raised over KHYBER KIM + SOLWHIT
as 16 of the last 21 winners of the CHAMPION were course winners and 14 of the last 18 had been placed 1st , 2nd or 3rd at previous Festival's.


3- AGE - Since the 11y-old SEA PIGEON won his 2nd Champion Hurdle there have been 2 winners aged 9 , 1 aged 5 and the remaining 24 won by either a
6 , 7 or 8 y-old .
However 5 year old have hit somthing of purple patch in the past 2 runnings with a winner , a Second , 2 x Thrids and a fourth .
Only those aged 9 or over would have a large negative from me.

All are under 9yo.

4- Possibly the most important statistic to consider is the fact that 22 of the past 26 winners ALL WON LAST TIME OUT .
I have looked back over thepast 15 and the 3 who had not won were placed 2nd and 3rd LTO so finishing in the the placings LTO would appear to be VITAL as far as the selection process is concerned .


5- Previous winning form at Graded level is just as important with only one winner from the past 15 i've looked at having NOT won at Grade 1 , 2 or 3


6- The last 15 winners all had ran within that Calender year .

STARLUCK has NOT won at Graded level
CELESTIAL HALO was out of the firset 3 LTO and is out of the top 6/7 in the betting.
ZAYNAR is surely the 3rd string of Henderson's runners so i'll take the hint esp after his 2nd at Kelso LTO.
KHYBER KIM's 2 poor runs at the meeting , lack of a recent run and his lack of a career win after Dec all add up to make me discount his chance.
SOLWHIT's lack of experience at both Course therefore at the Festival itself if enough for me to overlook him even before his dodgy scope came to light.
GO NATIVE is another without a recent outing and the poor record of Xmas Hurdle winners means he's not for me .

That leaves BINOCULAR , PUNJABI and MEDERMIT to consider and looking at the A KING stable form i have to say it's pretty disapointing by his normal standards esp going into the meeting so i'll pass him over .
Think he's probably just below the grade needed to win this anyway.

From the remaining pair i think PUNJABI has the edge over BINOCULAR .
Both have decent records at the meeting but BINOCULARS injury and his lack of decent winning form [3 horse race last time ] sways me to favour the reigning champ.
The drying ground suits the selection to a tee.

10pt win - PUNJABI
5pt win - BINOCULAR

[jtw1]

Tues - ARKLE TROPHY

1- Similar to the CHAMPION Hurdle the top end of the market usually has the winner in it's ranks although the FAVS have a poor record with only 2 winning from the past 17.
19/19 have been returned at 11/1 or under [ 18 at single figures ]

The state of the market so far has CAPTAIN CEE BEE [Fav] , SOMERSBY , SIZING EUROPE , RIVERSIDE THEATRE + SPORTS LINE at the required mark.


2- Ceratinly the strongest statistic in the race is that 17/19 had won or been 2nd LTO [ 20/20 had won ,or been placed , in ALL chase races they had completed]
Also 11/13 winners had won at Grade 3 or above over Hurdles or Chase's

ALL 5 were in the first 2 LTO.


3- AGE , with 17/19 previous winners being aged 5-7 , anything older must be viewed in a negative light .
Four 5y-olds have won in the past 4 times from the past 12 runnings but stopped getting a weight allowance 2 season's ago.

CAPTAIN CEE BEE is a 9 y-old which is a major negative for me , as well as being the current fav.
SIZING EUROPE is an 8 y-old and the last 8 y-old to win was MOSCOW FLYER .


4- 17/19 winners were rated 150+.

6 of those 7 with a UK rating are over 150.

5- OR ROYAL was the first winner since '66 NOT to have ran in that calender year .

SIZING EUROPE , SOMERSBY and RIVERSIDE THEATRE have not been seen this year.


AGE rules out CAPTAIN CEE BEE .
Age and lack of a recent run rules out SIZING EUROPE .
SPORTS LINE - Not won at graded level and only rated 147.
RIVERSIDE THEATER just fails to get the main selection due to his lack of a course run .
SOMERSBY has won after a long lay off , fits the other criteria and has been placed at the Festival meeting [3rd Supreme Hurdle]

10pt win - SOMERSBY
5pt win - RIVERSIDE THEATRE

[jtw1]

5pt win - BINOCULAR @ 8/1 1st @ 9/1
10pt win - SOMERSBY 2nd BTN 3/4 L

Other 2 were unp.


WEDS - NEPTUNE INV NOVICE HURDLE

1- The top 6 in the betting point the way to the winner with no less than 22 of the past 24 winners coming from that range.


2- A very strong stat that must be considered is that 20 out of 21 have ran AT LEAST 3 times over Hurdles.

RITE OF PASSAGE and PADDLARS CROSS had ran only twice over the Sticks

3- As with the previous 2 races studied , those who finished 1st or 2nd LTO have a great record .


4- AGE ,Only 1 horse OLDER than 6 has been successful since 1974.

FINIANS RAINBOW [7] fails on this one.

5- 10 winners from the previous 12 had ran in a Graded race LTO .

RITE OF PASSAGE , FINIANS RAINBOW and QUANTATIVE EASING did not run in a Graded event last time.


6 - 11 winners of the CHALLOW HURDLE have competed in the past 16 runnings and NONE have won.

REVE DE SIVOLA has that dubious honour this season.


Certainly will be wary of both RITE OF PASSAGE and FINIANS RAINBOW both with a couple of negatives to thier name .
REVE DE SIVOLA has that Challow Hurdle hoodoo to oevercome .
GET ME OUT OF HERE looks as though he will contest the Supreme Novice.

I beleive that the age factor is particularly Trend here so FINIAN'S RAINBOW is out of the equation along with RITE OF PASSAGE [inexperience]
PEDDLARS CROSS [only 2 hurdle races ] would prefer a fair bit of rain to soften the ground up imo as indeed would ALL of the principals.
The going does not suit any of the main contenders but i'll nominate QUEL ESPRIT as he is the only runner form the top 6 that does fit the criteria .

10pt win - QUEL ESPRIT .



CHAMPION CHASE
-------------------

19/19 were rated 166+
19/25 had been placed in previous Festivals , 12/17 have actually won at the meeting.
26/28 were returned at single figures in the betting.
16/19 were placed 1st or 2nd LTO , one was 3rd , one Fell and one Unp.


MASTER MINDED and TWIST MAGIC are rated 166+ although BIG ZEB is only 2lb off on 164.
FORPADY is only on 158 while KALAHARI is on 157.

MASTER MINDED , KALAHARI KING and FORPADY have all made the placings in previous Festivals , BIG ZEB may well have been placed when falling 4 out in this last year but TWIST MAGIC has a pretty poor record at the meeting - F ,6th, F does not inspire confidence.

All were placed LTO.

It's all set up for MASTER MINDED imo

BIG ZEB already taken as a back-up [5.4 w/o MM]

20pt win MASTER MINDED @ 10/11




RSA CHASE
------------

32/35 were 1st or 2nd LTO

17/19 were aged 7-8yo's , only 2 6y-olds since 78' and only 1 9y-old in the past 19.

17/19 started 14/1 or UNDER , 6 favs have obliged .

18/19 ran within 50 days .

10/10 had ran at least times over Fences

The age factor removes LONG RUN from the equation and the 5th [run 3 times over fences ] removes PUNCHESTOWNS + DIAMOND HARRY


Upon closer inspection , 5yo's don't have that bad a record , 1 win from only 7 runners but i feel LONG RUN will not appreciate the fatest going he has come up against in his career .
The other 2 named are discounted for the reasons given .
Therefore the nap goes to WEAPONS AMNESTY who won last seasons Albert Bartlett at the meeting.

10pt win - WEAPONS AMNESTY
5pt win - PUNCHESTOWNS [ he is the one princial runner who will handle the God ground]