Trends

[jtw1]

Now then lets review without any sweary words -

Stoute keeps his great record in this race with DOCTOR FREEMANTLE

while CAMPANOLOGIST manages to finish in front of DUNCAN





......unfortunately in 2nd last and last places respectively

fair enough DUNCAN just didn't settle and is worth another shot at the grade , but CAMPANOLOGIST ??

Much more of that and i'll be on an early sabbatical from the game

[jtw1]

CURRAGH 4.00 Group 3 7f Yielding 3yo+
---------------------------------------------

Although it has been a Grp 3 race for 10 seasons it was run over 8f from '98 to 2000 and from 2002 to 2006 it was for 4yo+

11/11 were returned at 5/1 or under [ 3 favs ]
11/11 were rated 102+
10/11 had WON that season with 8 successful LTO
8/8 were 7f winners [ when distance was shortened from 8f ]
9/11 had won/been placed in Listed/Group company

3yo's have won 2 from the 5 races they contested
4yo's have won 2/10
5/6yo's have won 7/10.

UK raiders have won 4 times from 14 runners and when those that started at 5/1 or under it is 4 wins and 4 seconds from 12 runners.

Rating - GUNGA DIN is only rated 93.

Distance - 7f is definately one of those where a previous win is a Big positive so with ROCK OF ROCHELLE [ 3 wins at 6f ] , , SNAEFELL [ 6 wins between 5 and 6f ] , AL QASI [ 5 wins at 6f ] and DOHASA [ 4 wins at 5+6f ] never having won over the dist , i'm discounting them here.

Wins this season -DOHASA and AL QASI also make this list as well as GEORGEBERNARDSHAW whose 2 career wins have both been on Heavy [ rain is forecast ] but seems to have fallen out of love with the game looking at this seasons results.

Wins/Places in Group co - Three Rocks has won twice earlier this season but his 4 career wins have never been in Listed grade , nevermind at Group level.

Then there was 2 - JUMBAJUKIBA who is still a force at the age of 6 , but he does seem to be finding one to good in most of his runs this season and i think the 2 year younger MAD ABOUT YOU can pip him here .
MAD ABOUT YOU'S record in 7f races is 1 , 2 , 3 , 1 , 2 and all those , with the exception of his winning debut , have been in at least Listed grade .
His running style [ usually tracks the leader in 3rd/4th ]should help here with JUMBAJUKIBA almost certain to lead from the start and the forecast rain will not hinder unless it turns Heavy , so keep an eye out fot that.

[jtw1]

The rain has come but it 's still officially Yielding .

Staking 8pts MAD ABOUT YOU @ 3/1 - SportingBet

Stake 2pts JUMBAJUKIBA @ 10/3 - Skybet

[jtw1]

A disappointing day yesterday .

3.30 MAISONS-LAFITTE 6f Group 3
-------------------------------------------

9/10 had ran 2 - 4 times this season
9/10 were previous winners over 6f
8/10 inc the last 5 were 5y olds , no horse aged 7+ won in 28 runnings .
Odds range from 3 favs up to 20/1
8/10 ran in Group class LTO [ 5 at Grp 1 or 2 ]
UK runners have won 6 of the last 12 runnings [ also been placed 2nd twice]

Taking it quite simply the sole UK runner , STRIKE THE DEAL , has most of the other stats in his favour ie a 6f winner , won at Grp 2 , ran at a higher grade LTO [G1] .
He is a 4yo which is a worry as the last 4 yo to win was back in '98.

Providing the ground stays Good then he must have a decent chance @ around 7/1


Of the 5y-olds the one with a shout imo is DELVITA , who has only ran 7 times , has won a Listed race but has been beaten in a Grp 2.
A win over 6f is in her favour .
This might be her level today and @ 14/1 could spring a surprise .

Stake 8pts - STRIKE THE DEAL @ 7/1

Stake 2pts - DELVITA @ 14/1

Both LADBROKES.

[jtw1]

DELVITA 2nd , btn nk @ 14/1

STRIKE THE DEAL unp ......

[jtw1]

Longchamp -Tuesday - 6.45 - Grp2 - 14f - 4yo+
----------------------------------------------------------

After sundays 2nd @ 14/1 i'm willing to try and get a winner across the channel.

8/8 have been Colts
8/8 were placed LTO [ 7 were either 1st or 2nd ]
8/8 had won at Listed /Group grade.
7/8 were in the top 3 in the betting
6 were aged 4 while the other 2 were 6 y-olds.
E LELLOUCHE has won this twice in the past 8 runnings.

It may pay just to concentrate on the 3 colts that are entered in this -

VOILA ICI is an Italian trained horse who has won at Grp 3 grade in his native land and been placed at Grp 1 grade over there .
However he has never ran over 12f before and i favour the French horses at home [ all previous 8 runnings over the distance have been won by French trained animals ]

BANNABY won the Grp 1 Prix Du Cadran 20f] over the course and then ran 2nd in the Prix Royal Oak [16f] only 2l behnd YEATS.
Distance doesn't seem to be a problem as he has won at 10 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 and 20f and 5 of his career wins have been on the forecasted GOOD going.
He ran 3rd LTO in a Grp 2 , noted as 'running on' in Soft going over the course btn just over 1l.


POINTILLISTE who comes from the LELLOUCHE yard and has won twice over C/D , one of which was a Grp 3 event.
Ground conditions and distance would appear to be in his favour .
He has only been out of the frame once in 13 outings so is nothing but consistant but whether he can do it at this grade is a doubt with BANNABY in the field.

BANNABY is the class horse in the race , with POINTILLISTE lacking a race at this level and VOILA ICI trying foreign fields for the 1st time , no doubt he's good enough to maybe take a Grp 3 but Grp 2 ??

Now here's the very interesting part , BETFAIR have odds up for this and they have BANNABY Fav at around 2.0 with POINTILLISTE @ 2.4 , early days i know and theres probably not too much in the pot just now but take a look at what CORALS are offering BANNABY 6.0 !!! while the other horse is 5/2 Fav .

Now is it me or is 5/1!! about the only runner to have won a Group 1 over the course , has won over the distance and is fit after 2 outings this season , the last a decent 3rd beaten just over 1 length in a Group 2 race on ground possibly a bit too soft , a bit of over-pricing ????

I'm on

[jtw1]

VIOLA ICI won @ 5/1 , BANNABY unp .

Globetrotting again on Sunday as we're off to Germany , 3.35 Dusseldorf to be precise for the Group 1 DEUTSCHLAND-PREIS which is run over 1m4f .

Only 1 winner in the past 25 years has been aged 6 or over.
9/10 were returned at 11/1 or under [3 favs]
6/10 had won in Group 1 or 2 level previously.
9/10 had won over 11/12f , the odd one had never won a race before this.
9/9 that had ran that season had competed in Group Co LTO with 8 being placed between 1st - 4th .

One trend that caught the eye with respect to this race is that since '94 , 6 previous winners had ran LTO in the Group 2 HANSA-PREIS , run 4 weeks prev at HAMBURG .

The winner , 2nd , 4th , 10th and 11th from the HANSA-PREIS take each other on in Sundays race.

Imo it's safe to discount the chance of the 2 who finished well down the field that day that leaves the 1st , 2nd and 4th .

The winner that day was FLAMINGO FANTASY , he has won 3 times but all were on GOOD going . He has never ran on SOFT which is forecast for this race so thers a doubt there .
He was also getting 2lb from the 2nd , GETAWAY, and 4lb from the 4th , KAMSIN .

GETAWAY was the 6/4 fav that day and should be close to wherever FLAMINGO FANTASY finishes.
Has won 3 Group 2's and soft going is not a problem [ won 4 times on that surface , but he is now a 6 y-old and that is a negative .

KAMSIN was 4th in the HANSA PREIS .
This horse has won 3 Group 1's [ 1 was through PAPAL BULLS Disqualification] and the going suits .
He was 11th in the ARC last season , btn just over 8l .

Summary - Only one winner of the HANSA has gone on to win this in the last 25 years and with no previous experience on Soft ground i'm willing to take on FLAMINGO FANTASY.
GETAWAY will have to beat the age factor if he is to take this , he has ran in 4 group 1's and has never been closer than 4th.

KAMSIN could turn the tables on the 2 that finished in front of him in the HANSA .
A triple Group 1 winner and with ground and distance in his favour , i fancy his chance here .

Will post up the odds later on Sunday .

[jtw1]

1st - GETAWAY

2nd - FLAMINGO FANTASY

KAMSIN unp

[toby1944]

.+I like coming on this site.......it gives me a good laugh.....i think you are all a load of wankers who dont know a horses arse from its face ....keep up the good work as im allways looking for a laugh

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by toby1944

.+I like coming on this site.......it gives me a good laugh.....i think you are all a load of wankers who dont know a horses arse from its face ....keep up the good work as im allways looking for a laugh

Spoken like a true horses arse

[jtw1]

GOODWOOD 3.25 Group 2 LENNOX STAKES
-----------------------------------------

Run as a Group 2 since 2003 so it's those last 6 years i'll concentrate on.

6/6 were rated 110+
Only 1 Fav has won in those 6 runnings
5/6 had won at Group 2 or 3 grade
5/6 were previous 7f winners
5/6 were returned at 7/1 or under.
3 three year olds have won
3 five year olds have won

ASSET is a non-runner.
EXPRESS WISH and REGAL PARADE are rated below 110.
BALTHAZARS GIFT is a 6yo and is around 28/1 in the market.
DREAM EATER has never won at Group level.
FINJAAN has never won over 7f [ only beaten a sh-hd in his only race over the dist but has never ran since the 2000 gns , 87 days ago [5/6 had ran within 60 days ]

Of the 3 left i think the 3yo OUQBA might just lack the class to take this .
A winner at Group 3 he has been well beaten at G1 and was 4th in his only outing in G2 grade , btn by WESTPHALIA .
Rated 114 , 5lb and 7lb behind his other 2 opponents , he will have to achieve a career best to win.

MAIN AIM looks like starting Fav , a negative imo , but has been running well this season , taking a Group 3 over 7f earlier in the season before running in places in the Queen Anne [4th] and the July Cup [2nd]
A winner 3 times over 7f he has improved as the season progresses but the odds are a bit skimpy as he takes on JJ THE JET PLANE.
The South African raider has won a couple of G1's and a G2 across there.
He has finished 4th when fav in the G1 Golden Jubilee Stakes at RA and was then a half length behind MAIN AIM when 3rd in the 6f July Cup and was noted as 'staying on' by the RP reporter.

Although 6f seems to be JJ's optimum distance , he has won over 7f once before and given a decent run is a better proposition at the odds than MAIN AIM imo.

[jonkaw]

What's happened here...no info for days,i hope your just on holiday or something i have looked forward to reading your reports

[jtw1]

I was on holiday for 2 weeks JONKAW , but i have also noticed that results after Royal Ascot have been disappointing for the past 3 seasons .
However i'll keep posting what i consider that main stats for the best races , mainly the weekend .

HUNGERFORD STAKES
---------------------------

13/13 had won over 7f
12/13 had won that season
12/13 were in the top 3 in the betting
6 of the last 9 winners had ran at GOODWOOD LTO [ 5 finished out of the 1st two ]
The majority were rated 107+

The top 5 in the betting are - ARABIAN GLEAM , PLUM PUDDING , BORDER PATROL , EVASIVE and GALLAGHER.

BORDER PATROL has never won over 7f so is discounted.
EVASIVE and ARABIAN GLEAM have not this season .
PLUM PUDDING did not run at GOOWOOD LTO .

GALLAGHER is a decent EW bet @ 12/1 acccording to the stats .

[jonkaw]

ok,jtw1,not so good today,but i look forward to reading your posts

[jtw1]

HAYDOCK - BETFRED SPRINT CUP - Grp 1 - 6f
---------------------------------------------------

13/13 ran at a grade one course LTO
12/13 were returned between 14/1 and Fav
12/13 had won in Listed company [ 9 in Group class ]
10/13 ran in either the NUNTHORPE , MAURICE DE GHEEST or the JULY CUP in which they all finished in the 1st four.
There has only been 1 winner aged 6 or over since BOLDBOY won in '77.
There have been 5 runnings since '96 where Soft / Heavy was part of the going description and the winners were drawn 10, 7 , 9 , 7 and 9 , or put another way all were within 5 stalls of the highest draw.

I think the first port of call should be to separate those who ran in those 3 named races from the rest .

EQUIANO - Ran 8th of 16 in the NUNTHORPE , possibly hindered by the draw [12] .
Has won a Grp 1 [ Kings Stand] and been placed 2nd on Soft ground in a couple of Grp 2's.
Poorly drawn , on past runnings , in stall 5.

MAIN AIM - 2nd in the July Cup [has ran and unp in one race since]
Has won at Grp 3 grade and has won on Soft and G/S going .
Drawn in stall 3 is a major negative.

ART CONNOISSEUR - Unp in the NUNTHORPE , his 2nd very disappointing run since winning at Royal Ascot .
Drawn in stall 6 and 33/1 in the betting would appear to sum up his chance.

FLEETING SPIRIT - Won the JULY CUP and is a regular winner in Group company .
However they all have been on Good or better going but in her favour she has never ran on anything softer than Good.
Drawn nicely in 12 she has recent form and class on here side and at around 5/1 is within the odds range.

FLEETING SPIRIT gets the kiss of death