Trends

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by jtw1

A long story as to wh i'm a bit late in posting so i won't bore you with it .
Here's the selections for today in a rather abbreiviated form

2.05 - Newcastle - ANCIEN REGIME + ATLANTIC SPORT

2.50 - Newmarket - ALL THE ACES + AGE OF REASON

3.00 - Windsor - ORDNACE ROW + PREMIER LOCO

3.25 - Newemarket - IMBONGI + EXPRESS WISH

3.40 - Curragh - LOOK HERE + DAR RE MI

5 pt win on each .

Sorry once more for the lateness of the posting , fortunately a nice hat-trick of winners at 5/4 , 8/1 and 9/2

Selections - 74

Winners - 22 + 1 ew + 1nr

Profit - 223.53pts

[Seen]

well done mate

[beamer]

Great day JT.

well done beamer

[sparkyo]

Well done JW, Don't I wish I could afford to play £100 a point
Sparky

[jtw1]

Originally Posted by sparkyo

Well done JW, Don't I wish I could afford to play £100 a point
Sparky

So do i mate

CURRAGH - 3.40 - Listed - 3yo+.
---------------------------------------

8/8 were returned in the top 4 in the betting
8/8 were previous winners over 8f
6/7 with a Bha rating were rated 106+
6/8 had won at Listed /Group grade [ other 2 placed in List/Grp co ]


EMPIRICAL POWER and MARQUESA are nr's

CELTIC DANE , AARONESS , LATIN LOVE and INDIANA GIRL are all sitting at double figures in the betting market .

3 left and from those EMILY BLAKE has won only when the ground is Soft or Heavy .
She has won a couple of Grp 3's .
If the forecast ground is indeed only Gd/Yld then it may not be testing enough for her.

FAMOUS NAME is Fav and has won a Grp3 and a Listed race .
One niggle is that he has been running over further in his past 3 outings [10/11f] and his trainer has been quoted that 9f is probably his optimum trip .
The ground will not be a problem.

JUMBAJUKIBA is a stallward in these races and a good yardstick .
He loves give in the ground and the trip is no problem , although he has been running over 6/7f this season.
He has won 4 Grp 3's and a couple of Listed races in his career and think if FAMOUS NAME and EMILY BLAKE have chinks in their armour this could be the one to exploit them.

Take on the FAV here -

Stake 5pts - JUMBAJUKIBA
Stake 5pts - EMILY BLAKE.

[jtw1]

Another respectable run from JUMBAJUKIBA gets him into 2nd place , but the Fav was a class or 2 above the rest


7.30 Fairyhouse - Grp 3 - 7f - 3yo+ Fillies and Mares
-----------------------------------------------------------

This has been run as a Grp event over 7f at Leopardstown for the past 6 seasons , hopefully being run at Fairyhouse will not affect the trands too much .

6/6 returned at 8/1 or UNDER
6/6 rated 92+
6/6 won or were placed last time out [ 4 won]
5/5 that had ran over 7f had won at the distance
5/5 that ran in Ireland last time did so at the Curragh , 4 of those were in Handicap company .
There have been two winners each from the 3yo, 4yo and 5yo age group.


Using the RP Betting forecast , we'll take out those over 10/1 which leaves us with half the field .

Ratings wise they all pass , but looking at the placings acheived last time and we'll remove KALIDAHA as he finished 5th in a Group 3 .
2 runners did finish in the first 3 LTO but the other 3 were unp but in Group 1 + 2 events .

There are two who have not won the 7f [ always a specialidt distance imo ] so off go FESTOSO + HEART SHAPED .

That leaves CHANTILLY TIFFANY , MAOINEACH and LUMINOUS EYES .

CHANTILLY TIFFANY has won at Grp 3 and Listed grade .
Twice a winner over 7f sha ran respectably last time at Royal Ascot when 4th in the Grp 2 Windsor Forest Stakes .
Although Ed Dunlop hasn't had a winner in Ireland in the past 5 season's , 4 of his 6 runners were placed 2nd or 3rd .
One worry is that it's Group 3 win was over in Baden-Baden so it might be outclassed by these other 2 .

MAOINEACH has won twice and both of those were Group 3's , one was also over the 7f .
She won first time out this season when taking the Grp 3 1000 Gns Trial Stakes on G-F .
After a couple of poor outings on Soft/Heavy [not her preferred ground] she ran 3rd [ btn one and a half lengths] over 6f last time on G/F in a Grp 3 at Leopardstown.

LUMINOUS EYES has won twice , both over 7f , and one of those was in Grp 3 grade.
She was well beaten 9th in the Irish Guineas on her debut , which is forgivable , but she seems to have a preference for give in the ground and if the forecast going of Good/Firm stays then she could be outpaced here .


Summary - A lot depends on the ground and in that respect it's between MAOINEACH and LUMINOUS EYES.
So with one eye on the weather i'll leave making a decision until i can see on ATR what the going is like .
If theres been rain then i'll probably go for both but if it's G/F then i may go for MAOINEACH itself .

[jtw1]

It would appear after some rain this afternoon the going is now GOOD .

Stake 5pts both - MAOINEACH and LUMINOUS EYES

[jtw1]

LUMINOUS EYES btn a sh-hd into 2nd @ 8/1

MAOINEACH never in the race

[jtw1]

Fri - 4.00 Sandown - 10f - Listed 3yo+
---------------------------------------------

7/7 were returned at 9/1 or Under
7/7 had ran at least twice that seaso
7/7 ran in at least Listed company LTO
6/7 rated 105+
5/7 had won over 10f [ one other was placed 2nd+3rd at 10f ]
5/7 ran at Royal Ascot LTO
5/7 were placed 1st or 2nd LTO , the other 2 were unp in Grp 1 + events at the Royal meeting.
3y olds have won 5/7 but as there are none of that vintage running tomorrow , it could be that 4y-olds have an advantage as 2 have won and of the remaning 5 runnings , 4 of the runners-up in those were 4 y-olds.

DEMOCRATE and GUARINO have not ran this season , while the probable Fav KIRKLEES hasn't technically ran on the Turf this season as his last outing was in Dubai in late March.

This will the 5y-old HALICARNASSUS 8th outing of the season [much more than any other prev winner ]

COVERT AMBITION is doubtful due to the ground being G/F and altought here is rain forecast overnight , the rest of the day would appear to be warm and dry .

This should fall to either of Khaled Abadullah's pair of TRANQUIL TIGER and CONFRONT .

The TIGER has won 5 Listed events , of which 2 were over 10f and all were either on Good or G/F going .
Is around the 6/1 mark

CONFRONT may start Fav here and represents the 'value' bet .
This will be only his 7th career outing so improvement could still be on the cards .
He has won a Class 2 and LTO was 3rd in a Group 3 at the Derby meeting.
This will be his first outing over 10f but his pedigree and previous races suggest the distance should not be an issue .

Stake 5pts TRANQUIL TIGER and CONFRONT .

[jtw1]

TRANQUIL TIGER 3rd


SANDOWN 3.15 ECLIPSE STAKES 10f Grp 1 G/F
-------------------------------------------------

12/13 were returned at 12/1 or under , basically the top 5 in the betting but only 2 Favs have won in 13 runnings .
12/13 had won a Grp 1 race
8/9 with a rating were rated 115+
10/13 had won that season , with the other 3 being placed 2nd in at least 1 run.
10/13 ran at Royal Ascot LTO , 3 from the QUEEN ANNE , 4 from the PRINCE of WALES , 2 from St JAMES'S PALACE and 1 from the HARDWICKE.
2 came from the Derby and 1 ran in France .
The past 4 Three y-old winners all had ran in the 2000 gns.

A OBRIEN - 4
STOUTE - 3
GODOLPHIN - 3

Basically with the market so strong in past years we can jump straight to the top 4 in the betting as any other winner will be a MAJOR upset .

All 4 , CIMA DE TRIOMPHE , CONDUIT , RIP VAN WINKLE and SEA THE STARS have all won in Group 1 company and all are rated 115+.

CIMA DE TRIOMPHE won the Italian Derby [ G1] but has been beaten in 3 subsequent outings in the top grade .

CONDUIT would have a much better chance over a couple of furlongs further imo .
He has won over 10f but that was a Cl 2 Handicap at Epsom and having won the St Leger and wins over 12f on either side of that i think that the true run 10f that this promises to be may tap him for toe.

Although RIP VAN WINKLE has not won or been placed 2nd this season his 2 fourth spots have been in the 2000 gns and the Derby , only btn a couple of lengths in each race O'Brien runs a couple of apparent pacemakers here and the plan could pay off .

SEA THE STARS needs no comment but history is against him as NASHWAN was the last horse to take the Guineas , Derby and Eclipse treble .
Everything went right for him in the Derby , esp the pace set before Tattenham Corner it may be a different story here .

STAKE 10pts - RIP VAN WINKLE .


SANDOWN 2.05 5f Grp 3 G/F
-------------------------------

13/13 ran within 3 weeks of their last outing.
11/11 with a ratingwere rated 102+
12/13 had ran a minimum of 3 races that season
12/13 were returned at 8/1 or under
11/13 ran at LISTED/GROUP class LTO
7/7 where there were double figure runners , that race was won by a horse drawn 8+
4 x 3yo
9 x 4 - 6y olds

From 14 3yo runners that started 8/1 or under there have been 4 winners and 3 x 2nd places .

The draw would appear to have some signifigance here when there are 10+ runners
The 3y-old bias could be a strong feature.

Taking out those drawn 1 - 6 and the couple left which are over the preferred odds leaves us with IALYSOS , TRIPLE ASPECT and ANGLEZARKE.

TRIPLE ASPECT will probably start FAV and his C/D win last time in Listed company was impressive as the stiff finish suited him [ 3 times a winner at 6f ] and Wm Haggas stated after the race he would be coming back for this .
Has won a Group 3 and a couple of Listed events .

ANGLEZARKE is a true 5f horse who was only just over 3l behind Scenic Blast at Royal Ascot LTO , where she was reportedly coming into season.
She should be making her move 2 out and could well be good enough here, but Easterby's yard is still finding winners hard to come by and i think the other 2 have better chances .

IALYSOS was bumped and barged in the Golden Jubilee and that appeared to unsettle him , he trailed in well beaten .
He had to leave Greece as no horse across there could give him any competition and he won first time over here beating ANGLZARKE , who now gets 5lb less for a nk beating.
He has won at 5/6 and 7f and has been clocked at 54 secs over the 5f there .


If IALYSOS has not been affected by his experience at Royal Ascot , and can reproduce some of his Greek form he must go close here .
TRIPLE ASPECT won well here over C/D last time and will take all the beating again .

Stake 5PTS EACH .

[jtw1]

Sandown 4.20 2m Listed 4yo+
------------------------------------

6/6 were rated 100+
5/6 had won over 14/16f
4/6 had won at Listed/Group level.

Provided her debut at Haydock can be put down to being a bit ring-rusty and run over an inadequate 12f , then GRAVITATION stands out here , as she is the only runner rated over 100 [ 108 ] .
She has won over 14f and was 3rd to PATKAI in last season's Queens Vase over the 2m.
She is the only runner who has won at Group level , indeed none of the others have won at Listed grade.

Stake 10pts @ 4/1 - Ladbrokes

[jtw1]

IALYSOS 1st @ 9/2
TRIPLE ASPECT 2nd @ 13/8f

RIP VAN WINKLE 2nd @ 11/2

GRAVITATION unp @ 17/2

Can't complain about the first 2 races , The 'Greek Freak' seems back to his best !! while in SEA THE STARS we have a genuine class racehorse and RVW ran a gallant 2nd at decent odds .
GRAVITATION looks like one to avoid for a while , the market told us it's chance's today .

[beamer]

Well done yesterday JTW.

Cheers beamer

[jtw1]

3.10 Newmarket - Group 1 Falmouth Stakes - 8f - 3y-old+
------------------------------------------------------------------

Age - 3yold's have won 9/13 , in fact they have won 23/30 . No horse aged over 5 won in the past 30 runnings.

Odds - 12/13 were returned at 10/1 or UNDER.

Ratings - Since the race was upgraded to Grp 1 status 4/5 were rated 111+

Ran LTO - 12/13 ran at either Royal Ascot or France , last 5 [ Grp 1 ] ran in a Group 1 race.

Placed LTO - 12/13 finished in the first 6 .

Distance wins - 11/13 were winners over 8f.



Horses rejected on grounds of odds + rating are COSMOPOLITAN , SAN SICHARIA and PENNY'S GIFT .

Age rules out the 6y-old HEAVEN SENT.

EVA'S REQUEST has only won at Grp 3 grade and has been beaten at both Group 1 +2 level so i would expext her to be outclasssed here .

SPACIOUS won well in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot last time but again lacks that Group 1 win which 3 of the last 5 winners have achieved.

GOLDIKOVA , a 4y-old , is the best rated horse in the race [125] and with 2 Group 1 wins in France as well as victory in the Breeders Cup mile on her C.V it's easy to see why.
All those wins were over the Mile and the US win was on G/F going [ other 2 wereon G/S ]
There is a doubt about her temperament however as she has shown reluctance to load into stalls and that happened on her seasonal reappearance when she was a disappointing 7th LTO.

This could be RAINBOW VIEWS return to the winners enclosure .
After disappointment in the Guineas when beaten by GHANATTI at short-odds she then ran a gallant 5th in the Oaks and then showed promise when 3rd [ behind GHANATTI ] in the Coronation Stakes [Grp1] at Royal Ascot .
A winner over 8f [twice] and in Group 1 + 2 company , her biggest advantage over the French challenger is her age .
With 23 of the past 30 runnings falling to a 3y-old , inc the past 3 when the race was upgraded to Gp1 standard .
The other 2 runnings as Grp 1 fell to the super SOVIET SONG as a 4+5 year old.


Stake 7 pts on RAINBOW VIEW @ 5/2 - Corals

Stake 3 pts on GOLDIKOVA @ 2/1 - Generally available .

[jtw1]

GOLDIKOVA certainly was a different class - 1st

RAINBOW VIEW - 4th

So the 'insurance bet ' gets most of our stake back , let's hope for a better return on Thursday .

Newmarket 3.10 Group 2 3yo+ 12f Soft
------------------------------------------------

12/13 were returned at 12/1 or under , only 1 Fav.
12/13 had won at Listed/Group level , only 2 had won at Grp 1 and carried the penalty for that win.
11/13 were 12f winners
11/13 had ran that season .
11/13 had ran at Group level LTO.
9/10 with a BHA rating were rated 111+
5 of the last 7 had ran at Royal Ascot.
0/13 were mares
Interestingly of the past 13 winners no fewer than 8 had won at Newmarket [ both courses and different distances ] and the other 2 who had a course run were placed 2nd [ btn a half length ] and 3rd .
2 had never ran at the Course.

Odds - Take out DRUMFIRE [ 20/1] and INDIAN DAYS [50/1]

Rating - ALWAARY only rated 107 .

Group wins - All the remaining 6 had won at Listed/Group class and are Distance winners.

Group grade LTO - ALL THE ACES only ran in a Listed race LTO and has been beaten by both CAMPANOLOGIST and DOCTOR FREEMANTLE in Grp 2 events and ENROLLER as a 3yo.

Recent run - SCHIAPARELLI hasn't ran in 227 days and would ' appear' to be Godolphin's 2nd string [ been burnt by that one before !!! ]

The remaining 4 have either won or been 2nd at Newmarket .

With dry weather forecast i'm happy to discount ENROLLER as his 3 wins have been on SOFT [2] and G/S [1] while the ground is officially GOOD .

Although DUNCAN ran a great race when 4th LTO in the Grp 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom LTO , he has only won at Listed grade but still has the scope to win a race like this .

Sir M Stoute has a decent record in this with 3 winners from the past 9 runnings but DOCTOR FREEMANTLE's last run was pretty abysmal by any standards .
As i pointed out in that last race his 2 Group 3 wins were at Chester which as we know is achalk to Newmarket's cheese .

CAMPANOLOGIST done everything right bar win at Royal Ascot in the Hardwicke last time [ a race which 3 of the past 13 winners has emerged]
A Group 2 winner he has ran in Group 1-3 company in his last 6 outings and has never been beaten more than 2l in any of those , apart from his seasonal debut in the 10f Brig Gerard Stakes .
The good ground should suit and the distance is not a problem imo.

Stake 7.5pts on CAMPANOLOGIST @ 5/1 - Ladbrokes

Stake 2.5pts on DUNCAN @ 5/2 - Generally available.