Trends

[ONEDUNME]

Good luck mate.

I'd read your post and made a point of watching Bosham Mill in running. It ran well and I was convinced it was going to get at least a place, if not a win but it faded at the end.

I'll be on Charlies future with you

[jtw1]

BOSHAM MILL ran a good race on ground that didn't suit , will be keeping an eye out next time the ground is Good.

CHARLIES FUTURE , thought we were on a tryer before the off when it was backed from 10's down to 7's , unfortunatly the horse didn't read the script and faded 3 out after leading for most of the race.

[ONEDUNME]

If they are both regular front runners, is there any chance of backing them before the off and laying in running at a shorter price I wonder?

[jtw1]

Tomorrow's Sandown card was one of the first to be highlighted on the original forum
Here's the post for the TOLWORTH HURDLE that day -

TOLWORTH HURDLE SANDOWN 2.40
-------------------------------------

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2006	Noland	5	11-7	6/4F	P F Nicholls	Christian Williams	136
2005	Marcel	5	11-7	3/1	M C Pipe	Timmy Murphy	144
2004	Lingo	5	11-7	5/4F	Jonjo O´Neill	L Cooper	150
2003	Thisthatandtother	7	11-7	11/4	P F Nicholls	Timmy Murphy	148
2002	Miros	5	11-7	7/2	Jonjo O´Neill	N Williamson	151
2001	Iznogoud	5	11-7	11/1	M C Pipe	A P McCoy	144
2000	Monsignor	6	11-7	11/8F	M Pitman	N Williamson	154
1999	Behrajan	4	10-9	9/2	H D Daly	R Dunwoody	138
1998	French Holly	7	11-7	4/1	Ferdy Murphy	Andrew Thornton	154

AGE - 5 Y-OLDS seem to have the advantage here with 5 wins from 9 runnings the others being 4,6 +7.
Betting anything over 9/2 is very risky ,in fact upon closer inspection the 9 runnings shown here have went to the 1st or 2nd favs 8 out of 9 times.
All previous winners had won in their season and apart from MARCEL[9] none had raced more the 4 times in theat season.
P NICHOLS has a very good record in this event having won it twice and been runner-up 3 times from 6 attempts. That unplaced effort was from a seasonal debutant.His other 5 runners had ran between 1-3 times and had won at least once.

Apart from being a 6y-old , P.NICHOLS runner SILVERBURN must be respected as it fits into all other criteria.
The danger should be the 5y-old Irish raider PIERCE ROCK but its the trainerform that sways it for me.


RESULT - 1ST SILVERBURN , 2ND PIERCE ROCK


The omens look good for BREEDSBREEZE continuing the good run of the NICHOLS stable in this event , but with that one due to start FAV it could be worthwhile to have a look at CALGARY BAY WHO IS VERY HIGHLY REGARDED BY TRAINER H KNIGHT.
This one has ran only 4 times and has won once with three 2nd places .
It's a 5y-old , has the very able AP McCOY on board and is currently 2nd Fav on BETFAIR.




2.05 SANDOWN - 2M CHASE G/S

7/8 were 8 or 9 y-olds
7/8 were in the top 3 in the betting
8/8 ran in Class 3 or above LTO
8/8 ran no worse than 6th LTO
Northern raiders have a record of 2 wins from 6 runners .

It's that last stat that makes me think that CALATAGAN might be worth an interest as it's trained in the NORTH by M JEFFERSON who doesn't have a great deal of runners at this track .
It fits the rest of the stats and has a decent record on GOOD/ G-SOFT ground [ 4 wins from 14 ] and has won 2 Class 2 events .

[jtw1]

BREEDSBREEZE 1ST @ 6/4F, CALGARY BAY 3RD @ 4/1

Thought we had the forecast again !! Stuck with CALGARY BAY but NICHOLS shows the way again in this race.

CALATAGAN unp , nice to discover from Jim Mcgrath that this one's record going right-handed was pretty poor and know we all know

Must try to look further into individual records

[jtw1]

SUNDAY
-------

1.10 SOUTHWELL - 6f MAIDEN

7/7 won by a 3 or 4y old
6/7 won by a horse from the top 3 in the betting
Sir M Prescott has ran 3 in that time and 2 have won at odds of 7/2 + 4/1 [other was 5th of 15 @ 14/1]

The 3y-old BE FREE represents the stable and looks like starting FAV or roundabout.


PLUMPTON 1.25 has been won by the FAV in all 5 runnings and the N Henderson trained IT'S A DREAM .

[ONEDUNME]

2nd mate

[jtw1]

BE FREE unp , opened around 5/1 and drifted out to an sp of 17/2 , so luckily it was a small bet for me.

IT'S A DREAM a well beaten 2nd [5/6f] to the 2nd fav [11/10]

[jtw1]

MONDAY - TAUNTON - 2.10 2M3F NOV H'CAP CHASE


No 5y-old has won in 9 runnings [ 5 have tried ]
7y-olds have won 7
8y-olds have won 2
NO FAVS have won in 9 runnings

Mondays renewal see's 3 5y-olds taking part and if we then discount the probable FAV and the 9y-old outsider we are left with the P HOBB'S trained 8y-old BUSY ISIT.

This one is making it's Chase debut and has won a NH Flat race over 17f and a Maiden Hurdle over 21f so the distance of this race [ 19f ] should not be a problem.
It has certainly disappointed in it's 3 races [ all hurdles ] since those wins but the bigger obstacles can bring out the best of this one

[jtw1]

WARWICK goes ahead

2.30 3m5f h'cp chase

8/8 carried 11:01 or under
8/8 won at least at class 3 level [ hur or chase ] in thier career
8/8 finished 1st,2nd or 3rd on at least one of their last 2 outings
8/8 started at odds of 12/1 or under LTO
7/8 were aged 8y-old +
6/8 had won at least one H'cap chase
1/9 was won by the FAV

STRONG RESOLVE ticks all the boxes [ with the possible exception of the starting price ] , certainly a decent E.W chance imo

[jtw1]

STRONG RESOLVE - Ran a creditable but non-profitable 5th @ 16/1.

A couple to keep an eye out for on TUESDAY

3.30 - SOUTHWELL - BE FREE .

The 4 runnings of this 1m Maiden has fallen to a 3y-old 3 times [ 3y-old was 2nd btn a hd in other ] so that gets rid of half the field.
The probable FAV will be the H MORRISON trained TAIKOO [ Evs with RP F/cast] but it could pay to take a chance with PRESCOTT'S BE FREE.
The trainer has an excellent 26% record over the past 5 season's on the AW here and has had 2 winners , 2 placed from 6 runners since New Years Day.
His runners always seem to improve on their 1st outing.

3.50 - FOLKESTONE - GLENDA HODDLE

Half the past winners of this NH Flat race have been 6y-olds [ 5/10 ]
Only 2 Favs have won .
Take a tentative look at CARL LLEWELLYN'S entry here as the stable has won with their last 2 runners in NH Flat races
It is one of only 2 6y-olds in the race .
Keep an eye on the market

[jtw1]

BE FREE 2ND @ 2/1

FOLKESTONE - ABND

[jtw1]

2.40 NEWCASTLE - WEDS.

Straight forward this one , honest !!!

MW EASTERBY has a record in this race when he has a runner , since 2000 , of -1st 7/2 , 3rd 3/1 , 1st 5/1 , 2nd 16/1 , 1st 11/2 , 1st 4/1.

DIAVOLERIA is the stable entry in tomorrows event and is 5/1 in RP F/cast

[ONEDUNME]

Glenda Hoddle.

Just spotted that one.

[jtw1]

2.15 THURLES

10/10 were in the top 2 in the betting
10/10 carried 11:04 or more
10/10 were NOT ridden by a claimer
7/10 were 6y-olds
3/10 were 5y-olds

SCAVENGER [ 6y-old] ran 3rd LTO in a GRP 3 race and looks like starting FAV here .