Trends

[beamer]

Well done again.Hope the R4 did not effect you too much.

Cheers beamer

[jtw1]

Thanks Beamer

1st - FUILIN @ 2/5f

6 Non-Runners , i assume it due to the ground , spoiled the race even if FUILIN did win at the restrictive odds of 2/5 fav .


Selections - 3

Wins - 2

Profit to 10pt win stake = +16.50pts

[jtw1]

Saturday
----------

And yet again the only racing at Listed or better level is on the AW

However theres no point in moaning again so here's a tentative selection for tomorrow .
I say tentative as the race has only been run 5 times , the last 3 of which were run on the AW but the trends seem to be holding up .

KEMPTON -2.40 - Listed Fillies Stakes - 8f
-----------------------------------------------------

5/5 were from the top 3 in the betting
5/5 had won at least once
5/5 ran in Listed/Group company LTO
4/5 were 4y-olds , other was 5y-old.
Whilst only 1 previous winner had won at Listed level the other 4 had finished within 4l of the winner when running in Listed or Group company.

I have taken the first 5 in the market from Bet 365's list .

BORN TOBOUGGIE
PERFECT STAR
FESTOSO
SCUFFLE
DIXEY

First to be discounted is DIXEY who has NEVER ran in Listed/Group company in it's career never mind last time out .
Coupled with the fact that it rated at least 6lb's below the rest and her 2 wins were over 7f , well btn last of 13 in it's reappearance last season in a 8f Newmarket Handicap.

BORN TOBOUGGIE ran in a Listed race on it's final appearance last season and finished 5th , btn under 4l .
However it's only other run in this grade ended with a 25l beating at Yarmouth.
2 of her career wins came on G/S and Soft going whilst the other was on Good going but according to the RP review it was run 'at a muddling pace ' so i'm doubtful it has the class on this surface to win .

PERFECT STAR is the only 5 y-old in the race and while 4/5 runnings ahve been won by a 4y-o the bigger picture shows that only 11 horses aged 5+ have ran and in each running at least one was placed and a 5yo won it last season.
She has won at Listed grade but that was in HANDICAP company and LTO was a well btn 3rd [ 7l ] at Bath in a Listed race.
First run on an AW surface.
Again , i have a doubt that she has the class to beat the selection.

SCUFFLE won a Cl 5 Maiden and two Cl3 Handicaps in the space of 3 months before finishing an 8l 10th of 16 in a Listed race at Redcar on her final appearance , but that was over 7f while her wins were all over the 8f.
With only 5 career rauns under her belt there could still be a fair bit of improvement to come .
The stable has had three 2nd's and two 3rd's all beaten under 2l so they are knocking hard at the door .

FESTOSO carries the Nap tomorrow .
Her one and only win so far was her debut in a Newmarket Maiden over 6f but her subsequent 6 outings after that were all between Listed and Group 1 grade .
The best of these were a 2nd in the Cherry Hinton [grp 2] , 4th in the Lowther [grp 2] and 3rd in the Cheveley Park [grp 1] as a 2yold.
She then wasn't seen for nearly 11 months when re-appearing in a Listed race at Doncaster where she finished 3rd btn 1l .
Her final race of last season was in the Grp 1 Sun Chariot at Newmarket where she finished 9th , 20l behind the winner .
Harry Dunlop has had 2 wins from 7 runners in the past 14 days so the stable sems in good order and i think he's found the perfect opportunity for his charge to start a new season at a grade where she must have a winning chance , imo of course .
One niggly worry is the fact that she has done most of her running over 6/7f but her breeding suggests the mile should suit .
First time on the AW but

[jtw1]

Disappointing run from the selection , esp after positive noises by the trainer but , as usual , the market told us our fortune with FESTOSO drifting from 9/2 out to 13/2 before the off was there with every chance coming into the straight but found nothing .

BORN TOBOUGGIE won really well and with a winner and a 2nd from 3 runners this season the CECIL yard is certainly worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks .

[jtw1]

NEWMARKET - 4.10 - Earl of Sefton Stakes - 9f - 4yo+
-----------------------------------------------------------------

11/12 finished in the first 4 last time out.
8/8 with a rating were rated 100+ [ 6 were 110+ ]
10/10 gad won at either 8f , 9f or both
9/10 were in the top 4 in the betting
8/10 were aged 4 or 5 yo
7/10 ran in at least Listed company LTO
6/10 had won at Listed/Group level

Taking the top 5 in the betfair market gives us -

TWICE OVER
VIRTUAL
TAZEEZ
BARSHIBA
BUSHMAN .

BUSHMAN is rated 104 [ lowest of the 5] abd ran in Listed company LTO .
However in finished only 7th in that ran and has only won at Cl 3 grade ; finished 2nd btn 3l in a Listed race.
Also it's usually one of the top yards that take this prize and D SIMCOCK [ with respect] doesn't come into that frame.

VIRTUAL is a virtual non-runner as the trainer states it will not run if the ground is unsuitable [ 4 wins - Soft x 2 , G/S and Good ] and with it currently G/F and no great rainfall on the horizon i doubt it will run.

TAZEEZ has had no experience of a Listed race never mind a Group event .
Surely it's a tall ask for a 5yo with only a couple of Cl 2 Handicaps to it's name to win this .

TWICE OVER will have to have a severe off-day NOT to win this .
Consistent at Grp 1 , 2 and 3 all last season it is without doubt the class act of the race .
H CEIL'S yard is firing and has taken this 3 times in the past 12 seasons.
A very worthy FAV .

BARSHIBA is the only female in the race [ 5 have ran at odds of 12/1 or under and they have produced 1 win @ 7/1and two 2nd's @ 12/1 ]
She has won at Listed grade and been btn only just under 4l in a Grp 1 and a 1l in a Grp 2 .
DRC ELSWORTH has won this twice in the past 7 seasons
She won a Listed race LTO and is rated 108.

TWICE OVER should win this but with a couple of NR's on the cards it could pay to go Each-Way on BARSHIBA .

[ONEDUNME]

Good luck with that mate. Twice over will win but it will be odds on

[jtw1]

Very surpised that TWICE OVER was beaten and disappointed that BARSHIBA was unp

SATURDAY - NEWBURY - 2.05 - 12f - Group 3 .
-------------------------------------------------------

13/13 had been placed in a Group race , 8 had won at Group level .
12/13 started at 10/1 or UNDER
12/13 had already won over 12f
11/13 were making their seasonal debuts
11/13 were aged 4-6y old
9/9 with a BHB rating were rated 108 or better .

With the likely Fav , SPANISH MOON now a non-runner i'm looking at those which may start at around the 10/1 or under mark.
According to Betfair that leaves us with 4 to consider -

ROYAL AND REGAL
TASTAHIL
CENTENIAL
SCINTILLO

First to have doubts is TASTAHIL from B Hills yard , only rated 105 and has ran once this season [ winning as it did ] but has NEVER ran in a Group race in it's career .

SCINTILLO has been active on the AW this season and quite successful too .
A win in a Kempton Listed race followed by victory in the Winter Derby [Grp 3] shows him in good heart .
However 3 runs in Group 2/3 grade over 12f shows a record of 5 , 3 , 4 .
Decent enough on easy going , albeit 3 of his 4 wins have been on Standard x 2 , Good and /GS [over 7f] this one might find a couple better on the day esp if there is more rain.

CENTENNIAL has Group 2 + 3 victories to his name and is top rated on 114
Making his sesonal debut here is another positive and the stable [GOSDEN] has been finding the winners .
A winner over 12f [ Grp 2 ] and a preference for going on the soft side of good means theres not many boxes this one doesn't tick.
It has proved that it can make the running and win if need be which could ell be the case tomorrow.
Thought by Gosden to be good enough to tackle the St Leger at one stage he ran in France instead finishing 3rd , btn under 2l , in a Grp 2 at Longchamps ; followed by a 3rd over 15f [Grp 2] on the same track.

ROYAL AND REGAL won this last year on Soft going so the more rain the better .
Twice a Grp 3 winner [inc this] and a Listed race , it is 2nd top rated at 112 and is making it's seasonal debut here .
Ran 5 times in Grp 2 company without success and it's best 2 runs in that grade were in a sub-standard Yorkshire Cup and a Sandown race which was run 20secs slower than the standard.

SUMMARY - Although did us a favour at good odds last season i think he will find CENTENNIAL just a bit better than himself in this years renewal.
The only thing that may affect that choice would be if the ground was changed to Soft over the whole of the track .
Other than that i will stick with the selection.

[jtw1]

DONCASTER - 6.15 - 8f - Listed - 4yo+
----------------------------------------------

13/13 returned at 8/1 or Under
12/13 were Southern trained , excetion was M Johnston
12/13 were 4 or 5 y olds
11/13 were making their seasonal debuts
11/11 were rated 100+
9/11 of the winners , when the race was run at Doncaster , had either won or been btn under 3l in Listed /Group company

Apply the odds and age factors and we're left with 4 to consider.

ATLANTIC SPORT
KING OF DIXIE
STAYING ON
UNNEFER

The RACING POST has KING of DIXIE down as Fav but the yard has only had 2 runners in the past fortnight which were well beaten.
Best placed 2nd in a Grp 3 Newmarket race last season which was run 1.71 secs above standard on FIRM going is suspect imo.

ATLANTIC SPORT has won at Listed level but CHANNON'S yard has only had 2 winners from 29 runners in the past 14 days .
Although his breeding suggets he will stay the 8f , 2 of his wins have been over 7f [ other was 6f] and with 4 of his career races over the 7f i think he might just toil to get the final 1f here .

UNNEFER has won at Listed grade but that was over 10f as has his last 5 outings + that race was run over 8secs slower than standard on Frim going !!
Will 8f on G/F be a bit too quick for this one ?
Henry Cecil has stated that he would prefer some give in the ground for UNNEFER , doubtful for Donny .

Providing the ground isn't FIRM at Donny the the selection goes to the Swinburn trained STAYING ON who , like UNNEFER has been tried at 10/11f but has decent winning form at 8f.
Too highly tried LTO in the Champion Stakes he nevertheles ran well when 8th , btn under 7l , in a Grp 3 at Newmarket but his best effort was when 2nd in the Hampton Stakes at Royal Ascot [10f]
A hat-trick at Kempton last night proves the stable is in form so the selection is - STAYING ON

[jtw1]

First things first , i didn't look at all at the meeting at NAAS today and was rather peeved to find out that INEXILE [ see CAMMIDGE Trophy ] had won @ 7/2 , part of a D NICHOLS hat-trick.
Convinced that if i had studied the race i would have selected that one but shit happens ................

CENTENNIAL 2nd @ 5/1 Bit of a surprise with a 12/1 shot coming in

STAYING ON 1st @ 9/2 A very well backed winner , opened at 7s .

Will update the totals and any selections for tomorrow later

[FC Basher]

Missed em , still well done mate

[jtw1]

Not a selection for the main Trends Bets but here's one to have a look at in the 1st at Leopardstown this afternoon .

SUNDAY
-------
LEOPARDSTOWN 2.25

A 2y-old Maiden where only 1 of the 9 have set hoof on a racecourse but theres some interesting pointers.

9/11 were in the top 4 in the betting [ 6/1 or under ]
7/11 were FILLYS
J BOLGERS record reads - 0 , 1 ,- ,3 , 3 , - ,1 ,1 ,1 , 6 , 4.
K MANNING has ridden all of those from the stable.

Today see's the BOLGER running the only FILLY in the race which is around the 7/1 4th Fav mark on Betfair .
GOLD BUBBLES is the name and could be worth an interest .
A P O'BRIEN runs the probable Fav but all their runners so far this season have needed the run .

[jtw1]

GOLD BUBBLES 1st @ 13/2

[beamer]

Great price JT.

Well done beamer

[jtw1]

Main Trends bets
--------------------

Selections - 7

Winners - 3

Profit/Loss - +31.50

[FC Basher]

Bloody hell ive missed that one too

Err jtw,whens the next one possibly?