Trends

[jtw1]

Browsing through the Racing Post site and naturally had a quick look at the trends for Tuesday and found this one -

PROCAS DE THAIX ,will probably be odds-on but this is a race where the Favs have a record of 7 wins [6 clear+1jt] from the previous 9 runnings.

Trained by N Henderson who has ran 5 in this over 9 seasons with 3 winning and the other 2 finishing 2nd.

Another stat in its favour is that 4 y-olds with a starting price of 3/1 or under have a record of - 3 wins from 5 qualifiers [ other 2 were 2nd + 3rd]

Would guess it'll start around 1/2 so could be worthwhile kicking off your acca with it.

[Khartoum]

jtw1,
Saw this run last time out & only just got beat up the run-in by a well-thought of Theatre Girl, made a note to look out for it next time.
10/11 quoted in the post would be nice but like you say on Betfair just over 1/2 at the moment.
A reproduction of that run would need something well above average from the rest to beat it.
Personally, don't bet odds-on but all the best to you.

Nice result with Hardy Eustace by the way.

[jtw1]

Cheers Khartoum , won at restrictive odds of 2/7 fav
Hopefully this one will be a winner at better odds , although still Fav.

12.40 CHEPSTOW - FOREST PENNANT

This race has been won 7 times by the FAV in 9 seasons
Trainer P NICHOLLS has won it 5 times from 9
5y-olds have won 8 from 9.

FOREST PENNANT is FAV , A 5Y-OLD and trained by P NICHOLS .

[jtw1]

FOREST PENNANT 2nd @ 11/10 f

[smk415]

havent been on a while, so just noticed this thread, good going jt unlucky with last...

[jtw1]

SAT
----

NEWBURY 2.05 - Positives -

12/15 were in the top 2 in the betting
10/15 were 1st or 2nd LTO
14/15 ran in at least one Grade 1 race in it's career
13/15 won at least once in it's last 3 outings
13/15 aged 6-8yold
6 of the last 8 winners carried 11:8

negatives -

1/15 aged over 9y-old
1/15 were over 8/1

With INGLIS DREVER finishing 3rd LTO as well as doubts over the ground and distance the selection falls upon BLACK JACK KETCHUM who is currently 2nd fav , won LTO , has ran in Grade 1 company and is an 8y-old carrying 11:8.


NEWBURY 3.25 - positives -

9/15 were in the top 2 in the betting
However 3 from the last 7 were between 12/1 to 16/1 !!
10/15 had not run for over 49 days
12/15 had ran in at least one Grade 1 event
13/15 aged 4 to 6y-old

negatives -

0/15 had ran within the last 14 days

Applying the odds , 14 day and the Grade 1 trends leaves us with the probable FAV POQUELIN .



3.30 NEWCASTLE - positives -

10/16 were FAVS [ inc jts]
13/14 won at least once in the last 3 outings
9/14 had not ran for over 49 days


negatives -

1/14 won by 2nd or 3rd FAV
LTO placed 7th or worse only won 2/14
10/1 + only won 1/14

KATCHIT gets the nod but only just , it has won it's last 3 and will be FAV [ 8 from last 9 were clear or jt]
However it's only a 4y-old [ 0 wins from 4 runners ] , the other horse that came close was BLYTHE KNIGHT who fits the age and LTO trends but looks like starting 2nd or 3rd fav and the stable seems out of form.

[jtw1]

HENNESSY GOLD CUP
---------------------

Not highlighted in the trends section of the RFO but the BY THE NUMBERS article in the same paper gives us a few clues and coupled with the ATR microsite for the race we can get a selection

19/22 carried UNDER 11:00
12/15 won LTO
18/19 were placed 1st or 2nd LTO
2nd season runners have won 6 from the last 8
10/13 were in the top 4 in the betting
The last 9 runnings have been won by a 6 to 8y-old

ABRAGANTE narrowly gets the nod over NEW ALCO as the BADGER BEER CHASE has been a decent pointer in the past.

[ONEDUNME]

I backed Abragante the other week - think it was Wincanton. I was at Donny and watched it on the TV. Ran a pretty faultless race I thought.

Very impressive

[jtw1]

Best result was BLACK JACK KETCHUM being a non-runner , unfortunatly i was out early on SAT so unable to put up INGLIS DREVER as a replacement [ don't know where i got the idea the distance woulb be against that won as it had won the last 2 runnings of the race !!!!! ]

ABRAGANTE - UNP
POQUELIN - UNP
KATCHIT 3RD

[jtw1]

Hopefully the trends can come give us at least one winner at SANDOWN on TINGLE CREEK day

2.05
----
positives -

13/14 were in the top 2 in the betting
12/14 had won at least once in their last 2 outings
13/14 had never fell/unseated
7 from last 8 had ran at CHELT in either of prev 2 runs
7/8 had ran between 20-32 days previously

negatives -

0/14 were over 8/1
0/14 were over 8y-old

Ok , so it's a bit of a no-brainer [again] but the selection falls on the probable FAV - MOON OVER MIAMI .


2.35
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positives -

12/15 were in the top 3 in the betting
13/15 finished 1st/2nd LTO
13/15 were 1st/2nd FAV LTO

negatives -

0/15 priced 8/1+
1/15 finished 4th or worse LTO
3/15 ran at CHELT /ASCOT LTO

Those stats from the RFO does'nt give us a lot to go on but i think if we look at PAUL NICHOLS record in this race we can oppose the FAV .
Since 1999 his best priced runners have finished -1,2,3,1,2,2,1,1.
So TWIST MAGIC is given the vote .


3.10
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positives -

9/14 were 1st LTO
13/14 won at least once in their last 6 outings
10/14 had won at least 3 times in thier career
9/14 were in the bottom 5 in the weights
13/14 were aged 4-6yolds

negatives -

2/14 were FAVS
1/14 were 20/1+
2/14 were in the top 5 of the handicap
0/14 had ran more than 49days previously
25 beaten FAVS have ran with NONE winning.

WINGMAN fits the bill

[jtw1]

MOON OVER MIAMI - UNP - Clouted one of the fences down the back but to be honest when i seen it drifting in the betting i was not confident and don't think it would have won even after that mistake

TWIST MAGIC - 1ST @ 5/1 The maestro that is PAUL NICHOLLS strikes again .

WINGMAN - Dead-heated for 3rd @ 9/2 , had every chance but not good enough , The winner did come from the bottom 5 in the handicap , had won LTO and was a 6y-old but was FAV , so it just failed to be the selection.

However it was nice to get a winner

[jtw1]

Apologies to anyone who follows this thread , but i've only had very limited internet access for the past couple of weeks .Things should be more reliable now

NEWBURY 2.40 CHALLOW HURDLE , ran 8 times since '98

8/8 WERE PRICED 3/1 OR UNDER
8/8 HAD WON AT LEAST ONCE THAT SEASON
8/8 FINISHED 1ST/2ND LTO
8/8 WERE FAV /2ND FAV LTO
8/8 HAD RAN IN A CL1-4 NOV HURDLE LTO
7/8 WERE AGED 5 OR 6 Y-OLD
5/8 WERE FAVS [INC JT]
0/8 HAD RAN WITHIN 12 DAYS OF LAST OUTING
0/8 HAD MORE THAN ONE PLACING THAT SEASON

Everything [Nearly] points to LIGHTNING STRIKE ,the one negative is the age [ only a 4y-old who have a record of 0/7 but there is a 2nd + 3rd in there ]
It is FAV in the RP F/cast , has ran twice this season and won both , was FAV LTO , and ran in a Cl 1 Nov Hurdle LTO which was 22 days ago.


3.10 NEWBURY MANDARIN CHASE

Only been ran 6 times since 1999.

6/6 WERE AGED 8Y-OLD +
6/6 WERE RETURNED AT ODDS BETWEEN 6/1 - 10/1
6/6 HAD WON AT LEAST 2 CHASE'S IN THEIR CAREER.
6/6 WERE RUNNING IN AT LEAST THEIR 3 SEAOSN OVER JUMPS.
5/6 HAD RAN NO MORE THAN TWICE THAT SEASON , 2 WERE FTO.
5/6 WERE IN THE TOP 3 IN THE WEIGHTS
0/6 FAVS HAVE WON , ONLY ONE 2ND FAV.

Everything poins to BOSHAM MILL .
Top weight , around 5th/6th in betting ,won 2 chases , 9 y-old , FTO this season , and in the veteran stage in their jumping career.

Note - these are NOT selections based on the trends section of the RFO but i have tried to use their criteria to make the selections

[jtw1]

Both unp , but as BOSHAM MILL opened at 16/1 and drifted to 20/1 i only VERY small stakes on .

[jtw1]

Whilst off-line the RFO highlighted some stats about jockey/trainer combinations to watch out for on the All-Weather at this time of the year.

One of those highlighted was the combination of George Moore/George Baker at LINGFIELD.
Those 2 had a 7/2 winner on Friday at the track and on Sunday they pair up in the 3.20 with ZERO COOL.
Amongst the stats highlighted for the pair is the fact that over the past 10 years they have had 12 winners from 42 where there has been 11+ runners [ RFO surmises that Baker's style of riding suits larger fields ] and they have had 11 winners from 36 where the distance is between 7f - 10f.
Both these apply for Sundays race .

[jtw1]

ZERO COOL - Stone cold last , Soz folks

EXETER 2.25 - This 3m on soft going has a tendancy to fall to a horse with previous experience over Course , Distance and Going.
Also another couple of stats to consider is that ALL previous 7 winners were aged between 7-9 y-old and 5 were in the top 4 in the weights.
CHARLIES FUTURE could reward at decent EW odds.
It's record over 3m on soft/heavy in Class 4 races is -
unp , F , 2 , 5 , F , 2.

Now i realise that those aren't particularly awesome figures but if you consider that the 2 races it fell in , both times it was at the last when in with a chance of winning [ according to RP ]

and a HAPPY NEW YEAR