Tips

[ONEDUNME]

No luck tonight but to to jot in the note book. Imperial Rocket led all the way around before blundering at the last fence, ending its chances and Hoh Mike got a shite start but still came back to only be beaten by a nostril.

[collette]

Southwell hosts a flat turf meeting on Tuesday and in the 3.30, a lowly class 6 staying handicap, Cava Bien catches the eye:

As a 3yo he was dropped 19lb after losing his form half way through the season last year (ran over various trips and surfaces) and then went hurdling and ran well in some fairly good races, achieving about [100h].

He is now running over 16f off [49] and will be far stronger for hurdling and has shown he has stamina over 19f hurdles and against older horses.

RP tissue is 11/1 and he may well go off at those odds because hurdle form is often ignored or not understood by punters.

[fasteddy]

4.25 Catterick No 12 Saif Sareea

This horse is trading at around 7/4 (Betfair) and that price
should be taken. He will be very hard to beat.

[ONEDUNME]

You can call me mad but I reckon the outsider of eight could get a place in the 355 at Ripon.

I'll be backing Azarole (16/1, 22s on betfair) for small stakes IF all eight run.

[collette]

Detonate 5.35 Brighton

returns to turf after 5 fair runs on sand. Although 4lbs out of the handicap today has actually been dropped 12lb since his penultimate turf run at Goodwood, where he was 6th of 19 and beat the also poorly drawn Semenovski by a length - who went on to win at Brighton over this distance next time out.

Fitted with blinkers first time and hampered last time on the AW at Kempton (riding deep too) when finishing less than a length down. Worth an EW @ 11/1 with a 5lb claimer aboard.

[ONEDUNME]

Hello Collette. I've seen the Kempton race and although the horse was struggling for room (no fault of the jockey in my opinion as he was drawn on the inside and didn't have much choice about where to put the animal) I don't think it would have made the slightest bit of difference to the outcome as the ones who swallowed it up did so convincingly.

What does interest me is the blinkers as I'm not convinced that the horse knows what it's supposed to be doing yet and seems to run in fits and starts. Maybe the blinkers can focus its mind and if it can be switched off behind a couple of others (ideal draw to do so) and delivered for the final furlong I'd say it's guaranteed to make the frame and if I can get 2/1 on betfair for the place I'll be taking it.

Thanks for the pointer.

[collette]

Best to thank me if it places ODM

the claimer is a slight concern because this one has been know to fall asleep in the stalls

currently 10/1 with Laddies..

[ONEDUNME]

I wouldn't worry about the claimer. He's the guy who rode it last time and didn't do much wrong. Anyway, although you can't afford to give too much ground away at this distance, I don't see this as a horse that wins from the front and tucking in behind won't do it any harm in my opinion.

[collette]

Plum Last right i give up with this sod bet it wins next time

[ONEDUNME]

Two things to note.

1. Wrong tactics. It's not a front runner and it hit the front early.

2.It got a couple of knocks and it didn't like it. On the one hand it means it isn't up for a scrap. On the other, who knows what it could do with a clear run, brought up late.

Worth sticking with is my analysis.