Grand National Pinsticker Guides

[kompressaur]

from the sporting life

PINSTICKERS' GUIDE TO THE JOHN SMITH'S GRAND NATIONAL
By PA Sport Staff
HEDGEHUNTER
Top-class Irish raider who waltzed home in this race last year and would have been placed the year before, but for taking a tired fall at the last. Has been in fine form this season and was a gallant runner-up in the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup last time. Despite his welter burden of 11st 12lb, he looks sure to be in the shake-up again. Rating (out of 10) 9
ROYAL AUCLAIR
Paul Nicholls' nine-year-old was second in this race behind Hedgehunter last year and is 9lb better off at the weights. He has been a little disappointing this season, winning only one of his five starts, and he was well beaten in the Gold Cup last time. He now has something to prove. 6
CORNISH REBEL
Full-brother to triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate and there is no doubt he has plenty of ability. He was placed in both the Scottish and Welsh Nationals last year, so stamina is not an issue. Was still going well when making a horrific blunder at the third-last in the Gold Cup and is an interesting, if not quirky, contender. 7
THEREALBANDIT
Very promising novice chaser a couple of seasons ago but then looked just short of top-class. Had lost his way last year before landing a Grade Three contest at Wetherby in December. Has not been seen since and looks to be on a high enough mark, though, so others are readily preferred. 5
IT TAKES TIME
Very good hurdler, although he has never quite fulfilled his promise over fences. Did manage to win a Grade One in the early part of last year but has been largely disappointing this season. As a 12-year-old he is probably past his best but he does have form over the big fences and finished fourth last year. 4
LE ROI MIGUEL
Dual Grade One-winning chaser but is another who has rather lost his way. It is also a worry that his best form seems to be at around two miles and he has yet to prove conclusively that he is a genuine stayer. He was well beaten over hurdles at Cheltenham last time and looks one to watch. 4
OLLIE MAGERN
A seriously promising novice chaser last season and looked more than capable of taking the step up when landing the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in October. Has been very disappointing since, however, and never got competitive in the Gold Cup. Would need to produce his very best after some dismal efforts to figure. 4
EUROTREK
Was very impressive in two staying chases earlier in the season but disappointed at Haydock last time for no apparent reason. However, he is clearly very talented and if he can put that run behind him, he could run a very big race for the powerful Paul Nicholls team if the ground is on the soft side. 7
SIR REMBRANDT
High-class staying chaser who has been placed in two Cheltenham Gold Cups. He has been placed in two strong races this season and was not beaten far in the Gold Cup last time considering the ground was too quick for him. Any cut in the ground would be appreciated and he could run well off a generous weight. 7
NATIVE UPMANSHIP
Very high-class performer and has won at the highest level over both hurdles and fences. Has run second to Hardy Eustace over timber this season and third to Beef Or Salmon over the larger obstacles in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup. The 13-year-old could still go well despite his advancing years but this is a tough call. 5
GROUND BALL
Consistent performer who switches between hurdles and fences frequently. Was not beaten too far in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham last time but he seems to be in the handicappers grip nowadays and it would be a huge shock to see him land this, first time over the Aintree fences. 4
INNOX
Very tough French-trained gelding who has landed a couple of Grade Three races on his last two starts, including the Racing Post Chase where he received an excellent power-packed ride from Tony McCoy. He was seventh in this race last year and with improvement expected judged on his Sandown run, he is sure to put up a bold show. 8
PUNTAL
Another member of the Martin Pipe string but he is not one of the leading lights.Fairly useful on his day but has been off the track for 16 months and has not won for two years. Another one who looks to be past his best and this looks an impossible task. 2
RINCE RI
Has been on the go for a long time and has plenty of miles on the clock. Good enough to compete at the highest level over the years and showed he still had ability when finishing fourth to Forget The Past in February. However, he has not won for over three years and he is seriously up against it. 3
SILVER BIRCH
Looked a serious Grand National contender when winning the Welsh equivalent back in 2004. Winner of the Becher Chase over the National fences and after picking up an injury, he made a pleasing reappearance in a hurdle race at Warwick in January but has put in two woeful displays since. Reported to have a breathing problem and has something to prove before he can be backed with any confidence. 4
WHISPERED SECRET
Has won seven times with most of those victories coming at a lower level. He has found life tough in better company on his last two outings and while there may be more improvement to come, he looks an unlikely winner. 3
LORD OF ILLUSION
Has some decent form in staying contests and was quietly fancied to run well in the Gold Cup but found the competition a little too hot. However, he jumps very well and he has proven stamina so it would be no surprise to see him run well off a decent mark, although he is often found out in top company. 6
CLAN ROYAL
Second in this two years ago and was still tanking along in front when he was carried out at Bechers on the second circuit last year. He has run well three times over hurdles this season, including an easy win at Market Rasen last time and with luck on his side, he looks sure to mount a very big challenge off a very, very good weight. 10
EBONY LIGHT
A dour stayer and, as he is in the care of Grand National supremo Ginger McCain, he is difficult to dismiss. He won a Grade Two at Haydock in January very easily but ran too bad to be true at the same track last time. Every drop of rain will aid his cause and if conditions are testing, he could go very well. 7
FIRST GOLD
Looked a potential world beater when winning the King George VI Chase in 2000 and continued to run well at the highest level. However, he has not won for three years and unfortunately he looks as though his best days are behind him. Would not be a surprise to see him get round but he is unlikely to be involved in the finish. 3
FOREST GUNNER
Gave trainer's wife Carrie Ford a great spin when finishing fifth last year but has shown little in three starts this term, being pulled up on his last two outings. However, he is something of an Aintree specialist and has won over these fences before so can not be ruled out under crack female rider Nina Carberry. 5
JOES EDGE
Had top-drawer form last spring, including a victory in the Scottish National and a creditable second at the Punchestown Festival less than two weeks later. Has not shown as much since and was outclassed in the Gold Cup last time, but this contest looks more up his street and he could run a big race if the ground rides fast. 6
LE DUC
Has plenty of ability but his form is very in and out and he has not won for a long time. Ran his best race for a long time when finishing second in the Becher Chase over these fences back in November and if he can reproduce that kind of form again, then he must have a solid each-way chance if staying the extra distance. 6
SIR OJ
Noel Meade's charge has been in good form this winter and came with a storming late run to win the Robin Cook Memorial Gold Cup at Cheltenham in December. Has won again since but fell early on at the Festival in the Ryanair Chase. The nine-year-old is a talented individual and if he stays this marathon trip, he is there with every chance. 7
AMBERLEIGH HOUSE
The veteran gave Ginger McCain an emotional fourth victory in the race in 2004 and ran well enough when 10th in last year's renewal.He has not shown an awful lot since but Aintree brings out the best in him and if the 14-year-old can turn up on the day at the top of his game, he could run very well despite his advancing years. 6
BALLYCASSIDY
Often punches above his weight in Grade One company but he usually puts up a good show. Fell at the second in this race last year and he would need to put up a career best effort to have any chance. 3
INCA TRAIL
Has won his last couple of starts at Sandown in good style but this is a big step up in grade. He clearly has ability, but he does not looks the easiest of rides and he needs to be produced right on the line to land a victory. He is certainly quirky and does not look a good betting proposition, despite being purchased by Aintree specialist Ginger McCain. 3
JUVEIGNEUR
Bounced back to form with a very good second place in the William Hill Chase at the Festival and should have no problem seeing out the trip, but whether he jumps round is the biggest question, as he fell at the first in the Becher Chase when he last tackled these fences. 6
GARVIVONNIAN
Beat Le Duc to take the Becher Chase at odds of 33-1 in November, but his last run showed that was no fluke as he was beaten into second by subsequent Gold Cup third Forget The Past. Not badly treated at the weights and a massive challenge looks likely, particularly if there is cut in the ground. 9
IZNOGOUD
Finished 12th in last year's National at 125-1, and if he improves his finishing position or goes off at shorter odds this year it will be a surprise. Beaten into the next county in the Gold Cup and is one of Martin Pipe's weaker entries. 3
NUMBERSIXVALVERDE
Won the Irish Grand National last year off a featherweight and has to enter the reckoning on that effort. Ran a cracking race to take third over timber in his last race over a trip that was far too short and looks primed for a big run providing the handicapper hasn't been too harsh. 8
BARON WINDRUSH
Out-and-out stayer who stayed on strongly to bounce back to form and take fourth in the Eider Chase at Newcastle two starts ago, but was desperately disappointing in the Midlands National last time. Has a chance if at his best, but he hasn't been very reliable recently and may find one or two too good. 6
HAUT DE GAMME
Well beaten in the Singer and Friedlander Chase at Uttoxeter last time, but that was over an inadequate trip. Appeared to relish the test of stamina in the Becher Chase on his previous foray over fences and while this distance is an unknown for him, he may be capable of staying on. 7
HEROS COLLONGES
Shaped as though this trip was slightly too far when finishing eighth here last year and confirmed the impression that he is unsuited by marathon trips when weakening out of contention in the Welsh National in 2005. Will probably get round, but is likely to be outstayed by a few rivals. 6
JACK HIGH
Has taken a while to come to hand this season but put in a pleasing display at Down Royal in March and seems to come into his own in the spring. Beat Juveigneur into second in last year's Betfred Gold Cup and is well worth a second look as he is only 8lb higher and is versatile regarding ground. 8
NIL DESPERANDUM
Second to Jack High at Down Royal and he will have to pull out all the stops if he is going to reverse those placings. All his best successes have come over two and a half miles, so this looks an unlikely place for him to find the winning thread once more, although he did finish sixth in the National 12 months ago. 4
TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN
Won the Eider Chase in 2004, but missed the entirety of 2005 through injury. Likely to have improved for each of his two runs this season, but he has yet to show conclusively that he retains all of his old ability and will need to be at his very best to win this. 6
COLNEL RAYBURN
Blundered away any chance he had before being pulled up in this race last year, and will have to show these fences a lot more respect if he is going to figure prominently.Has not been disgraced on his three outings this season, however, so could sneak into a place if jumping adequately. 7
DIRECT ACCESS
Fell at the first in the Becher Chase on this course in November, but showed no signs of any problems when winning as he pleased in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle. Has a decent record fresh, so the layoff is not a concern, but his tendency to make mistakes tempers enthusiasm. 6
IRIS ROYAL
Has been tried over staying distances since returning from 20 months away from the track, but hasn't convinced that he stays three miles, never mind this trip. Nicky Henderson's assertion that two-and-a-half-milers win the National will have to be spot on for this one to have any chance. 4
RISK ACCESSOR
Ran creditably enough in the Kim Muir at the Festival and has been in reasonably good form all season, but tends to miss out the odd fence, which is very dangerous in this contest, as proved by his second-fence exit in last year's renewal. Has claims, but not very strong ones. 5
ROSS COMM
Indefatigable stayer who was in the process of running a massive race in the Hennessy when departing just before the turn for home. Has had a spin over hurdles and over fences to sharpen him up recently and may well go close to altering the poor record of grey horses in this race if he puts in a clear round. 8
SHOTGUN WILLY
Has not been seen for over a year, when pulled up in the Midlands National, and this injury-prone chaser hasn't won since March 2003. Pulled up on his only outing in this contest and at the age of 12, it is likely his best days are behind him. 3
SPOT THEDIFFERENCE
Appears more at home on cross-country courses, and he repelled any thoughts that he was on the wane when taking second place at the Cheltenham Festival. Has finished in the last two Nationals, but usually in his own time, which just isn't fast enough. 4
JUST IN DEBT
Loves tackling these fences, having been beaten by a length in each of the last two renewals of the Becher Chase, and was travelling well for a long way in last year's National, before appearing not to get home. Trainer Martin Todhunter's horses weren't right at the time, though, and he should jump round, but may not have the staying power to win. 6
LORD ATTERBURY
Epitomises the change in fortunes that this race can bring, as he followed up his third place in 2004 by falling at the first in last year's race. His two outings over timber have lacked sparkle this term but he is not entirely ruled out as he has a good record at Aintree. 7
MARCUS DU BERLAIS
Third in last year's Irish National, but showed absolutely nothing in the Aintree marathon and has been a disappointment this term, with only one completion from his last three starts. 3
HAKIM
Has improved leaps and bounds this season despite his advancing years and won over these fences when taking the Grand Sefton Chase in November. Now rated much higher than when successful at Stratford in July, but is not without a chance if he sees out the trip. 6
KNIFE EDGE
Once pushed Moscow Flyer close and was only beaten eight lengths by Beef Or Salmon in 2003, but those days look a long way behind him judged by his 26-length loss in a hunter chase recently. 2
CONCLUSION
Clan Royal looks well weighted to gain compensation for his desperately unlucky run in this race 12 months ago, when a loose horse meant he and jockey Tony McCoy had nowhere to go and were carried out. Travelling beautifully at the time, he looked likely to give the champion jockey his first success in the race and reopposes Hedgehunter on 12lb better terms. The latter may have top weight, but his performance in the Gold Cup was exemplary, so he cannot be ruled out despite his welter burden. Ross Comm has done little wrong over fences, and looked likely to run a big race in the Hennessy before an uncharacteristic fall.Providing his jumping returns to his accurate best, he could be expected to challenge, as could Garvivonnian, who has proven his ability over these testing obstacles and is likely to relish the trip.
1. Clan Royal
2. Hedgehunter
3. Garvivonnian
4. Ross Comm

[kompressaur]

from the bbc-



Grand National runners and riders

John Smith's Grand National Aintree, Aintree, 4m 4f, 1615 BST, Saturday 8 April
(Number, form, horse's name, age, weight, trainer, jockey)

Honest Frank's choice:
1 Numbersixvalverde 2 Jack High 3 Clan Royal 4 Joes Edge
Top tips: National 1-2-3-4



1 42F-51520 ROYAL AUCLAIR 9-11-12
Christian Williams Paul Nicholls
Meets Hedgehunter on 9lbs better terms than when runner-up, beaten 14 lengths, last year.
Bad stat: No top-weight has won since Red Rum in the 1970s.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 16-1


2 0611-0422 HEDGEHUNTER 10-11-12
Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins IRE
Comfortable winner of 2005 race. More weight this time, but impressive when second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup recently. Respected.
Rating: 8/10 Odds: 5-1


3 1332-330 CORNISH REBEL 9-11-09
Joe Tizzard Paul Nicholls
Brother of triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate. Placed in the Scottish and Welsh Nationals last year.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 20-1


4 330-001 THEREALBANDIT 9-11-09
Richard Johnson Martin Pipe
Highly-rated novice before losing his way. Won nicely on last run at Wetherby in December. Trainer took the race with Miinnehoma, owned by comic Freddie Starr, in 1994.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 40-1


5 1042-404 IT TAKES TIME 12-11-07
Timmy Murphy Martin Pipe
Time marches on for this 12-year-old. Fourth in 2005 for champion trainer, who has suffered indifferent form this season and looks like losing his title to Paul Nicholls.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 33-1


6 225-5000 LE ROI MIGUEL 8-11-07
Liam Heard Paul Nicholls
Along with Le Duc, leased for day by a trio including Pop Idol judge Simon Cowell, who will net £1m for the NSPCC charity should the horse triumph. A good cause, but unlikely to be a winning one.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 50-1


7 1-340253 NATIVE UPMANSHIP 13-11-00
Conor O'Dwyer Arthur Moore IRE
Has run with credit at the highest level during a distinguished career. Jockey fresh from Gold Cup success on War of Attrition.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 66-1


8 0210-011 INNOX 10-10-13
Robert Thornton Francois Doumen FR
Consistent French horse ran a big race last year before tiring into seventh place. Won Racing Post Chase. A danger if he can last out.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 16-1


9 4P/111-4PP SILVER BIRCH 9-10-12
Sam Thomas Paul Nicholls
Looked a Grand National natural when winning the Welsh equivalent in 2004 and claiming the Becher Chase over the National fences. Failed to recapture that form after an injury.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 25-1




10 3112140 WHISPERED SECRET 7-10-12
Rodi Greene Martin Pipe
Performed well at a much lower level. It's no secret this is not the main contender in trainer's team.
Bad stat: No novice has won the National for nearly 50 years.
Rating: 4/10 Odds: 66-1


11 65-04504 RINCE RI 13-10-12
Andrew McNamara Ted Walsh IRE
A grand servant who has faced some of the best chasers of recent years. No win for more than three years tells its own story.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 50-1


12 5UU1/60- PUNTAL 10-10-12
Barry Geraghty Martin Pipe
Went on to win Betfred Gold Cup after unseating his rider when prominent in National two seasons ago. Returning from injury after 16-month break. Benefits from jockey who won the race on Monty's Pass in 2003.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 50-1


13 111-P020 LORD OF ILLUSION 9-10-11
Jason Maguire Tom George
One of the more talented outsiders. Found the competition too hot when down the field in last month's Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 25-1


14 1401F10 EBONY LIGHT 10-10-10
Stephen Craine Ginger McCain
Chance based on win in Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock. One of three runners for retiring Aintree training legend Ginger McCain as he seeks a record fifth win.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 33-1


15 2P2-5PUP FIRST GOLD 13-10-10
Richard McGrath Francois Doumen FR
Former winner of the King George VI Chase. But that was five years ago, and is no longer the glittering star of previous years.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 66-1


16 12/4C-531 CLAN ROYAL 11-10-10
Tony McCoy Jonjo O'Neill
Can it be third time lucky? Second when rider lost his whip near the finish in 2004 and then carried out when travelling well last year. National is one big race missing from champion jockey's CV.
Rating: 8/10 Odds: 11-2


17 330-02U LE DUC 7-10-10
Jamie Moore Paul Nicholls
Twice placed in other races over the National fences. Runs for champion trainer elect, who is seeking his first win in the Grand National.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 33-1




18 504-6511F SIR OJ 9-10-10
Paul Carberry Noel Meade IRE
Won Robin Cook Memorial Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November, but this is nearly two miles further. Jockey landed 1999 National on Bobbyjo, and will be looking to finish ahead of his sister, Nina, who's aboard Forest Gunner.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 40-1


19 115-UPP FOREST GUNNER 12-10-10
Nina Carberry Richard Ford
Twice a winner over the National fences. Fifth when ridden by trainer's wife, Carrie Ford, in 2005 National. This time top Irish amateur Nina Carberry bids to become first woman to ride winner of the big race.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 40-1


20 1-2U0440 JOES EDGE 9-10-10
Davy Russell Ferdy Murphy
Winner of last season's Scottish Grand National. Looks like the ground, trip and flat track could suit. Fancied to do well by some shrewd judges.
Rating: 8/10 Odds: 25-1


21 22102-FP2 JUVEIGNEUR 9-10-09
Mick Fitzgerald Nicky Henderson
Decent performance when second in the William Hill Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. However, fell at the first in the Becher Chase when last trying these fences.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 33-1


22 400-P5000 AMBERLEIGH HOUSE 14-10-09
Graham Lee Ginger McCain
Brought Red Rum's trainer his fourth win in the race in 2004. Horse also finished third the year before. Now 14, age looks to be against him.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 50-1


23 113050350 BALLYCASSIDY 10-10-09
Leighton Aspell Peter Bowen
Front-runner who often performs with credit, although came down at the second in this race last year.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 50-1


24 10-561511 INCA TRAIL 10-10-09
Brian Harding Ginger McCain
Bought by McCain from trainer Paul Nicholls for more than £100,000 just a fortnight before the National. Quirky younger brother to triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 50-1


25 006513 GARVIVONNIAN 11-10-08
Garrett Cotter Ned Mitchell IRE
Another interesting contender from a strong Irish raiding party. Won the Becher Chase, sometimes a good guide to this race, over the National fences in November. Could well be involved at the finish.
Rating: 8/10 Odds: 25-1


26 1-504B443 NUMBERSIXVALVERDE 10-10-08
Niall Madden Martin Brassil IRE
A nightmare for headline writers, named after owner's Portugal holiday home. Won Irish Grand National. Jockey is nicknamed Slippers (his dad's known as 'Boots'). Treading a similar path to previous winners.
Rating: 9/10 Odds: 10-1


27 F6/0200-00 IZNOGOUD 10-10-08
Tom Scudamore Martin Pipe
Easy to suggest chances are reflected in his name. Did finish 12th in last year's National at odds of 125-1.
Rating: 4/10 Odds: 66-1


28 1-3045351 JACK HIGH 11-10-07
David Casey Ted Walsh IRE
Talkative trainer won the race with Papillon in 2000. Says his son Ruby's mount, Hedgehunter, is the one to beat, but Jack High was second in the Irish National before winning the Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown.
Rating: 8/10 Odds: 20-1


29 2-253615 HAUT DE GAMME 11-10-07
Keith Mercer Ferdy Murphy
Boasts decent form over the National fences. Trying marathon trip for first time. Would be a dream victory for rider, who's a local lad.
Rating: 8/10 Odds: 20-1


30 416-00P42 NIL DESPERANDUM 9-10-07
Tommy Treacy Frances Crowley IRE
Finished sixth in the 2005 National. Would need heavy ground to boost chances.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 40-1


31 16216-P4P BARON WINDRUSH 8-10-07
Carl Llewellyn Nigel Twiston-Davies
A dour stayer who may be plugging on at the finish if still standing, albeit some way behind his rivals.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 40-1


32 51P0-624 HEROS COLLONGES 11-10-07
JP McNamara Paul Nicholls
Eighth in the race last year when suspicion was the trip may be too far. Looked a similar story when second in this season's Welsh Grand National.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 40-1


33 101PP/-64 TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN 11-10-07
Peter Buchanan Howard Johnson
Trainer will be doing a rain dance as the horse relishes heavy conditions. Won the 2004 Eider Chase before missing all of last season through injury. Rating: 5/10 Odds: 66-1


34 U-2P62SR5 RISK ACCESSOR 11-10-06
Noel Fehily Jonjo O'Neill
Only got as far as the second fence in the race last year. Tendency for mistakes makes him a risky proposition.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 66-1


35 P4/14-F1 DIRECT ACCESS 11-10-06
Tony Dobbin Nicky Richards
Not run since winning Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in the autumn. Jockey says it's his best chance since winning the 1995 'Bomb Scare' National on Lord Gyllene.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 28-1


36 235P-255 COLNEL RAYBURN10-10-06
John Cullen Paul Nolan IRE
Well fancied for the big race last year and was prominent for much of the race until pulled up after some jumping blunders.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 40-1


37 11P2/-60F5 IRIS ROYAL 10-10-06
Marcus Foley Nicky Henderson
Yet to prove he stays three miles, let alone the four-and-a-half mile trip here.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 50-1


38 21411F ROSS COMM 10-10-05
Dominic Elsworth Sue Smith
Grey horse ran well before falling six from home last time out in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury in November. Respected trainer is the wife of former top showjumper Harvey Smith.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 25-1
39 1P5//0PP- SHOTGUN WILLY 12-10-05
Andrew Tinkler Richard Guest
Last seen when pulled up in the Midlands National more than a year ago. Trainer rode Red Marauder to victory in the rain-sodden 2001 National.
Rating: 5/10 Odds: 100-1
40 P0-0P360 JUST IN DEBT 10-10-04
Alan Dempsey Martin Todhunter
Relishes the course - twice placed in the Becher Chase. Appeared to run out of steam, though, when tiring into ninth in last year's National.
Rating: 7/10 Odds: 50-1