Grand National: 8th April

[kompressaur]

John Smith's Grand National Event Date 08 Apr

Non Runner No . Enhanced Place Terms. Each-way 1/4 1-2-3-4-5
Clan Royal 11/2
Hedgehunter 6/1
Numbersixvalverde 12/1
Innox 14/1
Sir Rembrandt 16/1
Cornish Rebel 16/1
Jack High 16/1
Royal Auclair 20/1
Lord of Illusion 20/1
Garvivonnian 20/1
Dun Doire 20/1
Silver Birch 25/1
Joes Edge 25/1
Ebony Light 25/1
Direct Access 25/1
Eurotrek 25/1
Sir Oj 25/1
Ross Comm 25/1
Colnel Rayburn 33/1
It Takes Time 33/1
Nil Desperandum 33/1
Juveigneur 33/1
Therealbandit 33/1
Another Rum 33/1
Le Duc 40/1
Forest Gunner 40/1
Fondmort 40/1
Heros Collonges 40/1
Philson Run 40/1
Baron Windrush 40/1
Haut de Gamme 40/1
Ballycassidy 40/1
Joly Bey 50/1
Just In Debt 50/1
Lord Atterbury 50/1
Amberleigh House 50/1
Liberthine 50/1
Ollie Magern 50/1
Control Man 50/1
Kymandjen 50/1
Calling Brave 50/1
Dunbrody Millar 50/1
First Gold 50/1
Inca Trail 50/1
Iris Royal 50/1
Spot The Difference 50/1
Lou Du Moulin Mas 66/1
Strong Resolve 66/1
Marcus Du Berlais 66/1
Risk Accessor 66/1
Be My ter Half 66/1
Coljon 66/1
Drombeag 66/1
Europa 66/1
Korelo 66/1
Le Roi Miguel 66/1
Puntal 66/1
Shotgun Willy 66/1
Wain Mountain 66/1
What A Native 66/1
Windsor Boy 66/1
World Wide Web 66/1
Tyneandthyneagain 66/1
Dead-Eyed Dick 80/1
Whispered Secret 80/1
Hakim 100/1
Bounce Back 100/1
Brave Spirit 100/1
Celtic Son 100/1
Desailly 100/1
Ground Ball 100/1
Halexy 100/1
Iznogoud 100/1
Knife Edge 100/1
Mioche d'Estruval 100/1
Montayral 100/1
Native Upmanship 100/1
Point Barrow 100/1
Polar Red 100/1
Seebald 100/1
Supreme Developer 100/1
The Last Cast 100/1
Rince Ri 125/1
Dangerousdanmagru 150/1
Mrs Be 150/1
Wrags To Riches 150/1
Cassia Heights 200/1
King On The Run 200/1
Papillon de Iena 200/1
Present Bleu 200/1
Totheroadyouvgone 200/1
Astonville 250/1
Fiori 250/1
No Retreat 250/1
Oa Baldixe 250/1
Turnium 250/1
odds from bet365

[kompressaur]

anyone any fancies? I aint been following the horses for a few years but i'll still have my national bet like most do.

[jbgb007uk]

First off my serious bet is Hedgehunter, at Cheltenham it looked the most impressive horse over the festival and it was only out for a wee stroll. 6/1 is poor odds but that is my major tip, other than that I am on Jack High which was 20/1 when I staked E/W on it.

[crowie]

No horse since Red Rum in 1974 has carried the weight Hedgehunter will have to carry this weekend to win. Thats a long sequence of losers no matter how impressive they looked in Gold Cups or winning the previous year.

[Beanie]

Whats the process for picking National winners then - first off they have to have a good name I reckon as it doesn't do shouting on some French nag that you can't pronounce.

Then whittle those down with a few historical trends and form stats and end up with 3 or 4 to cheer on, usually up until the first fence where they all come a cropper

Anyway, my first shortlist of the names I like are:

Clan Royal 11/2
Hedgehunter 6/1
Innox 14/1
Cornish Rebel 16/1
Jack High 16/1
Garvivonnian 20/1
Ebony Light 25/1
It Takes Time 33/1
Nil Desperandum 33/1
Baron Windrush 40/1
Just In Debt 50/1
Kymandjen 50/1
Calling Brave 50/1
Inca Trail 50/1
Strong Resolve 66/1 (Is that the Grey one?)
Puntal 66/1
Shotgun Willy 66/1
Hakim 100/1
Bounce Back 100/1
Desailly 100/1
Halexy 100/1
Native Upmanship 100/1
The Last Cast 100/1
Rince Ri 125/1
Wrags To Riches 150/1
Cassia Heights 200/1
Turnium 250/1

Any news/views to help me cut down that lot?

[traeth]

I was at Aintree last year the landlord of the local got free tickets and took 3 of us.
I was on Clan Royal and Innox.
Clan Royal got hampered and Innox finished 6th,7th or 8th , not sure but looked knackered .It was a cold and wet day.
Will be kicking myself if one of those two win and I don't back them .
Don't like that small price on Clan Royal.

[crowie]

Another interesting historical stat is no French bred has won the race since 1909!

Clan Royal has come closest in recent years, 2nd two years ago but out run by old boy Amberleigh House and going well when carried out last year. It may well win but until we get a run of 6 or 7 French bred winners in the next 15 years then its a stat I always keep on my side, after all its not been wrong for best part of 100 years!!

[Beanie]

Interesting crowie - any idea of which of the runners are Frenchies, or a place I can find that out?

[jbgb007uk]

attheraces.com have a microsite on the national some good info there

[Beanie]

Nice one j

Here's a handy little historical stats overview:

Grand National: Why we should back an Irish-bred bay, aged nine

Damned statistics offer hope in search of Aintree hero

By Sue Montgomery, Racing Correspondent

Published: 02 April 2006



Some swear by them, others regard them as worse than damned lies. Statistics are one way of reducing what is in part sensitive art to unfeeling science: the quest for a winner. But if statistics, as cold facts, cannot lie, neither can they tell the truth. Any message is purely in the eye of the analyst.

There is a point of view that holds that every event, from the spin of a coin or the turn of a card to something as complex and many-faceted as a horse race, is a stand-alone, not dependent on anything that has happened in the past or may occur in the future. There is another theory that sequences and patterns exist, that the universe is not pure random chance.

In racing, trends seem to exist, although some may do so as self-fulfilling prophecies. For instance, once that it was discovered that prep runs over hurdles did a Grand National prospect no harm, others followed where Bobbyjo led.

As far as the Grand National is concerned, there are 158 years of information to digest. It is a fact that nine-year-olds have a better record than any other age group, with 35 victories; that 110 winners have come in the bay or brown colour range; that 20 Irish-trained horses have won; that all bar 27 favourites have lost; that only 12 mares have won. All of which information can be factored into judgement, but which may be misleading.

For statistics and the observation of trends both fare better with more knowledge. It is one thing to know that those nine-year-olds, for instance, are working at a strike-rate of 21 per cent; it would be quite another to compare that with their proportional representation.

In the past dozen years 442 horses have contested the National. Sticking with age for the moment, one eight-year-old (Bindaree) has won, four nine-year-olds (Lord Gyllene, Bobbyjo, Papillon and Hedgehunter), three 10-year-olds (Rough Quest, Earth Summit and Monty's Pass), two 11-year-olds (Red Marauder and Miinnehoma) and two 12-year-olds (Royal Athlete and Amberleigh House).

Now get out your anoraks. The nine-year-olds not only have the best record numerically during the past 12 years, but also comparatively. Of that age group, 116 have taken part, which means that 26 per cent of the population have produced a 33 per cent strike-rate. The 105 10-year-olds to have run represent a 23/25 per cent ratio, just about what it should be.

Nine-year-olds, too, are overwhelmingly the best bet to finish in the first four, having claimed 19 of the 48 places available since 1994, a 39.5 per cent strike-rate. Eleven-year-olds have a better-than-average success rate in this department too: 22 per cent, compared with 19 per cent representation.

Irish-trained horses have won four of the past seven runnings after a drought of 29 years, an extraordinary record over the period under scrutiny, during which time just 67 have run, 15 per cent of the total.

Irish-bred horses (258 of them) account for 59 per cent of runners in 12 years and, with nine wins and 21 placings during that time, have a better success rate than representation. Conversely, home-produced animals are doing no better than they ought, 100 runners having yielded two wins and nine places. There has not been a French-bred winner since Lutteur in 1909, but even though the Gallic tribes are now ubiquitous on British racecourses, 75 runners in 12 years have picked up just six places. They are starting to hit the bar, though; the past two runners-up have been French-bred.

As regards colour, there is a slight chestnut bias. Bay horses win more races than any other hue, but that is simply because the thoroughbred population is mostly bays. But of our 442 Grand National runners in the past 12 years, 316 (or 71 per cent) have been bays or browns and nine of those have won. But chestnuts do slightly better proportionately as a group; their three wins have come from 103 individuals, or 23 per cent of runners. Greys have four places from 23 runners.

More facts. National winners tend to carry 10 stone-something. All of the past dozen winners have had winning form over fences over three miles or more, and only four of them (Royal Athlete, Papillon, Bindaree and Amberleigh House) made the race their first success of the season.

On the negative front, there has not been a French-trained winner since 1867, no horse as young as seven has won since Bogskar in 1940, or as old as 14 ever. No grey has won since Nicolaus Silver in 1961, and no horse has repeated the feat since Red Rum.

Statistically, the one who ticks the most boxes is last year's sixth, Nil Desperandum. Hedgehunter is bay, Irish-bred and Irish-trained, but against that he is 10, he has not won since he took the race last year, and he must carry top weight. "Statistics and history do seem to be against him," said his trainer, Willie Mullins, yesterday, "but I have to say he is in very good order. But don't expect him to take the sight out of your eye in the parade ring. He is at his best when he looks like he needs a break."

Trevor Hemmings' rangy, rugged gelding became the first for 21 years to carry more than 11st to victory, but the framing of the handicap is undergoing a sea change that favours the better horses and, as his Gold Cup runner-up spot demonstrated, he is now a class act.

MONTGOMERY'S TIPS 1 Hedgehunter
2 Innox
3 Cornish Rebel
4 Juveigneur
Longshot Colnel Rayburn

From the Independent.

[Beanie]

42F-51520 ROYAL AUCLAIR (FR) 9-11-10 Clive Smith Paul Nicholls
02P-4B131 FONDMORT (FR) 10-11-08 Bill Brown Nicky Henderson
225-5000 LE ROI MIGUEL (FR) 8-11-05 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
3P-124420 CELTIC SON (FR) 7-10-12 David Johnson Martin Pipe
0210-011 INNOX (FR) 10-10-11 J P McManus Francois Doumen FR
5UU1/60- PUNTAL (FR) 10-10-10 Terry Neill Martin Pipe
1P00-5P JOLY BEY (FR) 9-10-09 David Dunsdon Nick Gifford
2P2-5PUP FIRST GOLD (FR) 13-10-08 J P McManus Francois Doumen FR
12/4C-531 CLAN ROYAL (FR) 11-10-08 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
330-02U LE DUC (FR) 7-10-08 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
22102-FP2 JUVEIGNEUR (FR) 9-10-07 Trevor Hemmings Nicky Henderson
F6/0200-00 IZNOGOUD (FR) 10-10-06 The County Stores and Avalon Surfacing Martin Pipe
2-253615 HAUT DE GAMME (FR) 11-10-05 The Haut De Gamme Partnership Ferdy Murphy
51P0-624 HEROS COLLONGES (FR) 11-10-05 John Hales Paul Nicholls
11P2/-60F5 IRIS ROYAL (FR) 10-10-04 Sir Robert Ogden Nicky Henderson
03U-00P3P MARCUS DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-10-02 Marcus Beresford Arthur Moore IRE
410-0U50 LIBERTHINE (FR) 7-10-00 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson
3/P-5050 MONTAYRAL (FR) 9-9-13 T Mannion Pat Hughes IRE
56-46313F KORELO (FR) 8-9-11 David Johnson Martin Pipe
64-22340 LOU DU MOULIN MAS (FR) 7-9-10 The Eight Amigos Racing Syndicate Paul Nicholls
0/5/4-23F0PP HALEXY (FR) 11-9-09 Sir Robert Ogden Jonjo O'Neill
142P22PP BRAVE SPIRIT (FR) 8-9-04 The Con Club Colin Tizzard
20P0-PPP TURNIUM (FR) 11-9-04 Fergus Wilson Phillippe Cottin FR
266-126023 MIOCHE D'ESTRUVAL (FR) 6-9-02 Joe Moran Martin Pipe
P00P-FP0 ASTONVILLE (FR) 12-9-02 Fergus Wilson Phillippe Cottin FR
56PF-P0 PRESENT BLEU (FR) 11-8-12 Judith Wilson Martin Pipe
464/U06//- OA BALDIXE (FR) 12-8-08 Kahlil Burke Kahlil Burke
6-344200 PAPILLON DE IENA (FR) 6-8-08 Dakit Partnership Martin Pipe

Do I read it right that that is all the french bred horses then? - seems a lot of them(even with some to be eliminated).

[Seen]

Here's my stats. Unlike the above journalist, I somehow don't think the colour of the horse is something worth analysing

---------------------------------

There are many statistics attatched to the Grand National which are churned out year after year. But which ones are actually useful? If there is logic behind a statistic, then the chances are that it will help pinpoint the likely winner. However, without a logical explanation, a statistic could well be just coincidental. This is my reasoning....

Weight Band & Class Band
These two stats go hand in hand, and are usually the first to mind when analysing this race. Regarding the Weight Band, during the last 21 years, all winners carried between 10-0 & 11-1. This can be quite easily explained logically. This is like no other race, and the effort demanded of the runners is more than your average long distance chase. The early pace is ferocious, the field size is huge, the fences are bigger and the course is a huge 2m2f oval with long, energy-sapping straights. There are no undulations or tight turns to break up the pace, so horses rarely get a chance for a breather. The faster the pace is, the more weight tells. Horses carrying above 11st simply don't have enough energy left at the end of the race to mount a winning challenge.
Also, you have to remember that these horses are being asked to jump higher, and drop further, than in an ordinary race. No wonder big-weight carriers don't win the National. Those racing from out of the handicap have not got the class to win this event, unless the ground becomes bottomless, which is extremely unlikely this year.
The Class Band stats tell us that all winners in the last 14 years were Officially Rated between 136 & 155, and every year we are told to concentrate on horses within this group. Personally, I just can't see the logic in this. If there was no ceiling on the weight band, and we were told to concentrate on horses rated 139 and above, then fair enough, logic tells us that horses rated lower than this simply do not have the class to win this race. But how can a horse have too much class for a race? A horse is either up to the task, or not. The reason there appears to be a ceiling on this band is because of the way it is tied-in with the weight band - the higher the horses rating, the higher the weight, and once above 11st, the weight prevents them from winning. So ignore the Class Band and concentrate on the Weight Band.

Jumping Ability
Obviously you need a competent jumper to win the National, but are the fences as severe as they are made out to be? My opinion is that the fences at Park courses such as Haydock and Kempton are just as difficult ( or even more difficult ) as the Aintree obstacles. The Aintree fences have loose birch on top and allow horses to brush through the top of them without falling. The fences at Haydock, for example, are far stiffer in structure and if a horse hits the top, it's odds-on it'll capsize. Of course I'm not suggesting that the National fences are easier to jump than your average fence at other courses, the sheer size of them cause many horses problems, and the fact that several fences have their landing side lower than the take-off side, regularly catches inexperienced chasers out.
The first few fences usually have more casualties than any other fences, this is not because they are more difficult to jump, but because the field is at it's biggest in the early stages. The less room to manoeuvre a horse has, the harder it finds it to approach the fence properly - if it's stride is wrong it has no room to put itself right. Also the horses view will often be restricted, and seeing the fence late can be disasterous, not forgetting that if a rival horse falls in front of it, then the chances of having room to sidestep it are slim. The pace is furious in these early stages and there is no room for error. A lot depends on luck, no matter how efficient a jumper a horse is. I recall backing Docklands Express in the early 90's simply because he had never fallen, and he fell at the first. Party Politics, a giant of a horse who almost stepped over these fences, won the race in 1992, finished 2nd in 1995, yet fell at the third in 1996.
The first six fences make up just 20% of the 30 fences, yet in 2004 14 of the 22 fallers (64%) came to grief by the 6th fence, and in 2002 56% of the fallers suffered the same fate. In 2000 43% of the 21 fallers came to grief over one of the first 6 fences. In 1999, 33% of the fallers fell before the 7th fence. In 1998 an amazing 65% of the fallers ( 11 of the 17 ) failed to get past the 6th fence. In 1994 8 of the 21 fallers ( 38% ) were out of the race by the 6th fence. So being able to jump at speed in a big field is vital, and every single one of the 14 winners since 1991 had either won or placed in a chase with at least 14 runners. This is a vital stat and is completely logical.

Fitness
Some horses are attempting to win the race after a lengthy break since their last outing - but this is a stat that is very much against them. We have to ask why this is. There are many horses which are actually best when fresh, so why do they not win the National? My view is that if a trainer has a horse he is aiming at the National, then even if the horse needs a rest between races, he would give it at least one or two outings during the season to keep the horse ticking over. An outing even as late as early March would give the horse plenty of time to recover. So any horse that arrives at the National without a recent run has almost certainly had problems, which is bad news as to win the National a horse must be at his physical peak. Also horses that are best fresh are often fragile creatures, which are unsuited to this tough event. All winners since at least 1988 had had their previous outing between 16 and 49 days before this race, which seems a logical stat.

Previous Winners
Not since Red Rum has a Grand National winner won the race again, even though plenty have tried. Why is this? Many races throughout the year are won by a horse that won the race the previous season, so why not this one. After all, the horse is proven over the fences, stays the trip, acts in a big field, likes the course, and can win in the Spring. One explanation is the weight, a National winner will be asked to carry a fair amount of extra weight the following year, and this often proves their downfall. My personal opinion of this is that the race is such a test for a horse, to win it takes so much out of a horse, that they are never really the same again. Hedgehunter has a monumental task here with 11-12 to carry.

Trip
All winners bar one since 1988 had won a chase over at least 3m 1f - the only one that hadn't was MONTYS PASS, who had won an A class 3m hcap at Listowel. The misconception that a 2m 4f horse can outspeed the plodders causes many horses to be entered each year which have no chance of staying the trip. Before the fences were modified, the pace was slower as the jockeys were more careful over the fences, and this enabled the 2m 4f horses to hunt up the leaders before being unleashed on the run-in and using their pace to win the race. But nowadays the pace finds these horses out year after year.

Age
Between 8 and 12 is the favoured age band. 7yo's lack the experience and 13yo's and older are simply to old to be competitive in this extreme test.

Previous Runs
All but one of the winners since 1991 had won a race worth at least £19,000. The one that hadn't, Party Politics, had finished 2nd twice in events worth £23,000 and £37,000.

Experience
Any horse competing here as a novice or in only their second season, is unlikely to win. All winners bar one (BINDAREE) since 1990 were in their 3rd or 4th season chasing.

Time Of Year
All winners since 1988 had won previously in either January, February, March or April.

[Beanie]

That's a great read that is Seen.

Nil Desperandum seems to tick most of those boxes, but form looks pretty ropey. 2nd behind Jack High over 3m2f just 2 weeks ago and both will carry the same weight again. Any thoughts on that one?

[Seen]

I haven't looked at the runners yet, to be honest Beanie - as for trying to tie in performances with horses I wouldn't bother, ordinary form goes out of the window in this race.

[crowie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

[/b]
Do I read it right that that is all the french bred horses then? - seems a lot of them(even with some to be eliminated).

Yep, thats right Beanie, anything with the prefix (FR) is French bred.