Grand National preview

[crowie]

Another trend worth pointing out. Earth Summit is the only horse since 1975 to win wearing headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpiece). 137 have tried since 1975 so a 1/137 success rate isn't great. Don't know if many are running this year in any type of headgear but its worth mentioning.

Even when you consider Earth Summits win to buck that trend, that race was another one run in extreme, wet, heavy conditions and its more likely that the conditions as opposed to the headgear benefited it more that day.

[Bigkegman]

Originally Posted by crowie

Cloudy Bays probably needs a Foinavon race to win it!

Just picked that out in the works sweepstake

[crowie]

Originally Posted by Bigkegman

Just picked that out in the works sweepstake

Knowing you, it will probably win it.

You remember that year we watched it in the Mack when you had done the NOTW free £1 tricast bet and you ended up with 1st, 2nd and 4th? I remember us all thinking how we were going to spend your winnings that night in the closing stages

[Bigkegman]

Oh the memories !!!

We'd have all ended up in the nick - either that or the Brewery

[Mike_Winter]

Goo dthread Seen. I got a good wad with Numbersixvalverde last year but the mate that game me that tip is travelling the world at the mo. so he won't be able to help me out this time. I've had a quick look and I'm going to go for either Dun Doire orMcKelvey.

[trickrick]

I notice that Paddypower are offering first 5 places for each way which is nice

Can't seem to find any other bookie offering similar??

[crowie]

Originally Posted by trickrick

I notice that Paddypower are offering first 5 places for each way which is nice

Can't seem to find any other bookie offering similar??

Bet365 doing it as well Rick.

VC are refunding stakes, in the form of a free bet with them, if you horse falls, unseats rider or is brought down. A decent offer IMO if your looking for a bit of a "safety net".

[MYDOGDYLAN]

I picked out Cloudy Bays in our sweep as well Keggy

But no write up for me,these are 2 horses iv'e backed before this season and i'm very confident they will give me a run for my money

Knowhere and Celtic Son hoping for a gi normous price on Betfair on these 2.

[keemanan]

Seen , you have Cloudy bays there but 8 out of 9 wins has been on soft ground.

[Seen]

A few years ago I tried narrowing the shortlist down by analysing form (going, jumping ability, recent form etc) but found that I was chucking out the winner more often than not.

Now I just go with the stats.

CLOUDY BAYS won on firm ground 5 years ago so does act on it, also would have won a big handicap on good but for unseating. He possibly needs soft ground at 3m to slow the others down, so 4m4f on good should be okay. He's 50/1 so is worth a small bet anyway.

[Beanie]

Got Longshanks and Liberthine in the office Sweep, but not sure what I'll plump for with my own cash. Dun Doire poss but I'll see what everyone else fancies pre race.

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by crowie

VC are refunding stakes, in the form of a free bet with them, if you horse falls, unseats rider or is brought down. A decent offer IMO if your looking for a bit of a "safety net".

That VC offer looks very nice Crowie..Might have a wee gander...

I'm currently on Longshanks - e/w 5 places @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)

[trickrick]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Got Longshanks and Liberthine in the office

Wierd..(well in a way)

I've backed Longshanks, and got Liberthine in the office sweep...

[mrmuzeman]

9/1 JOES EDGE
10/1 POINT BARROW
14/1 DUN DOIRE
20/1 McKELVEY
33/1 JACK HIGH
50/1 BALLYCASSIDY
100/1 CLOUDY BAYS

One which narrowly misses out is 66/1 shot PHILSON RUN

So are you backing all of those with different stakes Seen?

[Seen]

£10 @ 9/1 ~ JOES EDGE
£10 @ 10/1 ~ POINT BARROW
£10 @ 16/1 ~ DUN DOIRE
£5 @ 20/1 ~ McKELVEY
£5 @ 40/1 ~ JACK HIGH
£4 @ 50/1 ~ CLOUDY BAYS
£4 @ 50/1 ~ BALLYCASSIDY
£2 @ 66/1 ~ PHILSON RUN