Diary of a bored punter

[Seen]

Okay, I've got a rare free Sat afternoon today, so I'm going to chill out listening to the footy while betting on the horses.

I'll post my horse bets here as I go, see if I can make a profit. I'll probably use a combination of form reading, my own speed ratings and statistics.

This afternoons going reports....

Sandown - Soft, Good to Soft in places on round course

Beverley - Good to Soft, Good in places

Chester - Good to Firm, Good in places (2mm rain overnight)

Newton Abbot - Good, Good to Firm in places

[Seen]

1.40 Beverley

A 2yo fillies maiden

Looking at the last 10 year stats on 2yo fillies maiden races at Beverley, a few strong stats.

Firstly, favs have a decent record of 48% strike-rate.

Secondly, horses which are sent off longer than their forecast price have a poor record (3%) compared to those starting the same or shorter (21%).

Thirdly, over this 7.5f trip on easy going, those drawn in the lowest fifth of the draw have won just 1 out of 39 tries, a 2.5% striek-rate.

3 runners here are going to no bigger than their fc price....

ZAHARATH AL BUSTAN (drawn 4)
EMPHASIS (drawn 9)
NICK'S NIKITA (drawn 6)

8 run (1 nr)

The fav, ZAHARATH AL BUSTAN, has to be considered but possibly should have won by now and the value looks to be EMPHASIS, drawn bang on the rail and is bred to like the soft ground (by Pivotal). Ignore her first run as she was badly drawn, the fact she's been well backed suggests she's good enough to win this.

Bets

£40 win EMPHASIS @ 5.1
£10 place lay SARTORI @ 1.97
£10 place lay LOVINGLY @ 2.7

I'll try and lay £40 in-running for EMPHASIS @ 2.1 to give me a free bet

[Seen]

1st SPECIOSA
2nd ZAHARATH AL BUSTAN
3rd NICK'S NIKITA

EMPHASIS was poor, never getting into the race. Needless to say my 2.1 lay was not matched. A £40 loss, but £20 won back on the 2 place lays.

-£20
-£20 running total

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1.50 Sandown

No front-runner here so a false pace likely. ECHELON probably needs a decent pace so the bet has to be MUSICANNA as he's already won a couple of small field events.

Bet

£60 win MUSICANNA @ 2.76

will try and lay £60 off at 1.51

[Seen]

MUSICANNA wins nicely.

A profit of £105.60 from the £60 win, minus £30.60 from the in-running lay

+£75.00
+£55 running total

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2.00 N Abbot

The stats for these 3m3f hcap hurdles show that lowly-weighted runners have a cracking record..

Bets

£20 win MAKE IT EASY @ 7.82
£10 win CRESSWELL GOLD @ 17.0
£5 win PURE STEEL @ 60.0

will lay them all to £35 at 2.1

[MickeyPaul]

Good stuff Seen. Bet you wish you had more free Saturday afternoons.

[Seen]

A bit unlucky not to get a free bet there, CRESSWELL GOLD shortened right in to 2.12 from 17.0, so I was 0.02 of a point away from laying the bets off.

-£35
+£20 running total

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2.15 Beverley

A high draw is a big advantage in these 7.5f hcaps on easy ground, as is being near the head of the betting. PASSION FRUIT the obvious one.

Bet

£25 win PASSION FRUIT @ 5.4


will lay off £25 at 2.1

[Seen]

PASSION FRUIT ran terribly


-£25
-£5 running total

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2.20 Sandown

Don't like CLOSE TO YOU here, a slow clocker drawn right on the outer. ASSET will probably lead on the rail and must go close. KILWORTH is yet to clock a decent time so ASSET it has to be.

Bet

£50 win ASSET @ 4.9

will try and lay £50 off at 2.1

[Seen]

Mmmm...the 2 market leaders I didn't fancy both finished out of the first 3, but lost on the race cos ASSET ran onepaced. Should really have done better on that race

-£50
-£55 running total

[MickeyPaul]

Nice to see I'm still able to jinx you.

[Seen]

2.40 Chester

Horses in these 7f 2yo maidens which start at shorter than 2/1 have a cracking record...

25 wins from 38 runs, 66%

Bet

£65 win GLOBAL GENIUS @ 2.56


will try and lay £65 off at 1.31

[Seen]

GLOBAL GENIUS wins

won £101.40 on the win bet
lost £20.15 on the lay

+£81.25
+£26.25


Hi Mickey - how's tricks?