THE 2007 GRAND NATIONAL

[ONEDUNME]

The weights have been published today. Will try to find some info, meanwhile, here's a blurb from the Racing Post.




BOOKMAKERS on Tuesday made clear how much the Irishhave mastered the Aintree factor as the search for the likely winner of the 2007 John Smith’s Grand National was narrowed to five horses.

With a record of five Irish wins in the last eight years having included a one-two at Aintree last April, the prize appeared ready for export again after the weights were published for the big race on Tuesday.

Despite a 33-strong entry from Ireland all the ante-post attention was on a particular quintet that comprised former winners Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter, Irish National winner Point Barrow, Galway Plate winner Far From Trouble and Dun Doire, who triumphed at the last Cheltenham Festival.

William Hill and Totesport were unable to separate them as they introduced all five as 14-1 co-favourites but later Hills cut Dun Doire and Far From Trouble to 12-1 clear joint favourites.

Connections of both confirmed they are being trained for the race after handicapper Phil Smith allotted Dun Doire, easy winner of last year’s William Hill Handicap Chase, 10st8lb, and Far From Trouble, one of owner J P McManus’s main hopes this year, 10st 10lb.

Martin said: “I’d have to be delighted with that. I think 10st 8lb is a lovely weight down low for him. You can never really know how well they’re weighted with theLiverpool factor coming into play but it seems grand.

“The most important thing is just to get him there in one piece and if he gets a touch of luck in running that’s a lovely weight. I definitely think we’d like to give him one run and possibly a couple before we get there but I wouldn’t know where he’ll go yet.”

Trainer Christy Roche will be attempting to become the first person to have ridden the winner of the Derby and train a Grand National winner since Tom Cannon, Lester Piggott’s grandfather, won both in 1882 and 1888.

He said: “It sounds a good weight - about what we were expecting. I imagine it would be a good racing weight. We are looking towards Cheltenham first though, as the National wasn’t in the original plan.”

This year’s handicap features joint top weights of Exotic Dancer, a leading Cheltenham Gold Cup hope, and Hedgehunter, the 2005 Grand National winner and last year’s runner-up, on 11st 12lb with Forget The Past, Fota Island, also from Ireland, and Louping D’Ainay, a former winner of the French equivalent, on 11st 9lb

[ONEDUNME]

While Ireland's senior handicapper Noel O'Brien said that overall "Phil has got it right" there was not universal joy among the Irish with Pat Hughes expressing concern about the treatment of Point Barrow on 10st 12lb, a weight which may cause him to look elsewhere.

He said: “10st 12lb is very high. In Ireland with Hedgehunter on 166 and ours on 142, he would have been given 10st 2lb so to be 10lb higher against horses that are proven National horses is crazy. He wouldn’t necessarily go there now - he could go for the Irish National now instead.”

Inevitably many of the contenders have engagements at Cheltenham but Hedgehunter who went to Cheltenham a year ago and finished second in the Gold Cup may miss the Festival this time.

Trainer Willie Mullins said: “He has a little problem with his knee and he was at the vet yesterday and we had a good report so hopefully he will be back in work soon. We will try to get him to Cheltenham but ifthere is any doubt we will probably skip it. I would like to get a run into him before Aintree.

“You just drop your hands on him and he jumps away. He ran a cracking race with a lot of weight last year on ground that probably didn’t suit him but we are hoping with the race a little bit later this year the ground will be a little better. It’s a lot of weight but he carried it last year.”

Mullins has five entries and picked out Bothar Na as his other likely contender. “He ran a cracker in the Hunter Chase last year and is being prepared for the National. He needs good ground.”

Numbersixvalverde, victorious off an 11lb lower mark last year, has 11st 3lb to carry in his bid to become the first back to back winner since Red Rum in 1973 and 1974.

Trainer Martin Brassill said: "His weight is more or less what I thought it would be, as you could not expect him to have the same weight after winning last year.

"The horse is sound and will probably have two more runs before the race, firstly in the Bobbyjo Chase and then perhaps in a hurdle race some time in March.

"He's in a good frame of mind at the moment, you would just be hoping for a lot of luck in running. Slippers' Madden would ride again, as he did nothing wrong last time."

[ONEDUNME]

Here's some blurb from the BBC to explain how important today's weights are


http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/othe...ng/6356301.stm

The allocation of weights for the 2007 Grand National marks a pivotal point for the prospects of trainers, jockeys, owners and punters.


It can clear the path to big-race glory or produce a burden too heavy to overcome.

BBC Sport weighs up the factors involved in preparing for the Aintree marathon on 14 April.

HANDICAP


Unlike the other most prestigious steeplechase of the year, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the Grand National is a handicap race.

This means horses carry differing weights according to their previous form.

The idea behind a handicap is to make for a more even race - the handicapper's ultimate (though in practice unfeasible) aim is for the horses to pass the winning post in a dead heat.

WEIGHTS


The "best" horse in the race is given the top weight (about 11st 12lb) and the weights allotted to the other horses are set in relation to this.

ALLOCATING WEIGHTS
Handicapper Phil Smith must take a variety of factors into account, including:
Form: Horse's recent and previous performances
Course: The so-called 'Aintree Factor' - does the horse like the track?
Distance: Is the horse proven over long trips?
Quality: Attract the best horses to the race

This means if the top-weighted horse drops out, the weights of the other competitors may alter but will not change in relation to each other.

The Grand National is a test of endurance over four-and-a-half miles and Hedgehunter in 2005 was the first horse since Rhyme 'n' Reason back in 1988 to win carrying 11 stone or more.

He was second under 11st 10lb last year to Numbersixvalverde, who had an 18lb weight advantage on 10st 8lb.

BETTING


Backing a short-priced runner on the day weights are published in February has been a quick route to the poor house in recent years.

Only Seagram, Lord Gyllene and Earth Summit of the last 11 Aintree winners were quoted at 20-1 or shorter by William Hill at the time of publication of the handicap.

Notable hot ante-post favourites turned over include Master Oats, Young Kenny and Carvill's Hill - who did not even give his supporters a run for their money in 1992.

THE FORM


Horses can also run in other races in between the handicap being set and the race being run.

Seasoned punters look out for these runs as a chance to spot horses whose talent may not have been accurately reflected by the handicapper.

For example, when the handicapper allots a weight to a horse for the Grand National, he will look at its previous form.

But if a horse had been run over the wrong distance, or was simply below par on a given day, that would not be a true indication of its potential.

It may then run at a more suitable distance and perform much better after the handicap had been set, but before the National itself.

The horse would then be said to be carrying a favourable weight in comparison to its rivals.

There are exceptions - some valuable races automatically carry weight penalties which are added to a horse's Grand National weight.

MINIMUM WEIGHT


Even if a horse is allotted a weight of 8st 12lbs, it must carry 10 stone as this is the required minimum.

This means some horses will be carrying possibly a stone more than they should be (known as being out of the handicap) and this disadvantage should suggest they are likely to perform less well than their rivals.

A modern-day record of 92 horses were originally in the handicap proper in 2005 with that number dropping to 85 in 2006. However, a maximum of 40 line up on the day. Many punters will automatically put a line through horses out of the handicap.

[ONEDUNME]

Is this paste going to come out properly?


Best odds from Oddschecker


Dun Doire (14/1), Numbersixvalverde (14/1), Far From Trouble (16/1), Hedgehunter (16/1), Point Barrow (16/1), Eurotrek (20/1), Nil Desperandum (20/1), Clan Royal (25/1), LAmi (25/1), Liberthine (25/1), State Of Play (25/1), Bewleys Berry (33/1), Forget The Past (33/1), Homer Wells (33/1), Kelami (33/1), Lacdoudal (33/1), Ladalko (33/1), Longshanks (33/1), Simon (33/1), All In The Stars (40/1), Billyvoddan (40/1), Bothar Na (40/1), Exotic Dancer (40/1), Idle Talk (40/1), Jack High (40/1) - others 40/1 or more

[ONEDUNME]

Weights from the Sporting Life site


EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 7-11-12 Jonjo O'Neill

HEDGEHUNTER (IRE) 11-11-12 Willie Mullins IRE

FORGET THE PAST 9-11-09 Michael O'Brien IRE

FOTA ISLAND (IRE) 11-11-09 Mouse Morris IRE

LOUPING D'AINAY (FR) 8-11-09 Francois Cottin FR

EUROTREK (IRE) 11-11-08 Paul Nicholls

L'AMI (FR) 8-11-08 Francois Doumen FR

STATE OF PLAY 7-11-08 Evan Williams

OLLIE MAGERN 9-11-07 Nigel Twiston-Davies

MONKERHOSTIN (FR) 10-11-06 Philip Hobbs

ARMATURK (FR) 10-11-05 Paul Nicholls

THISTHATANDTOTHER (IRE) 11-11-05 Paul Nicholls

BILLYVODDAN (IRE) 8-11-04 Henry Daly

CROZAN (FR) 7-11-04 Nicky Henderson

LACDOUDAL (FR) 8-11-04 Philip Hobbs

OUR BEN 8-11-04 Willie Mullins IRE

SIR REMBRANDT (IRE) 11-11-04 Robert Alner

NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (IRE) 11-11-03 Martin Brassil IRE

SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 8-11-03 Ted Walsh IRE

CORNISH REBEL (IRE) 10-11-02 Paul Nicholls

IDLE TALK (IRE) 8-11-02 Tom George

LADALKO (FR) 8-11-02 Paul Nicholls

ROYAL AUCLAIR (FR) 10-11-01 Paul Nicholls

TURPIN GREEN (IRE) 8-11-01 Nicky Richards

CLOUDY BAYS (IRE) 10-11-00 Charles Byrnes IRE

KNOWHERE (IRE) 9-10-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies

BOLD BISHOP (IRE) 10-10-12 Jonjo O'Neill

KELAMI (FR) 9-10-12 Francois Doumen FR

POINT BARROW (IRE) 9-10-12 Pat Hughes IRE

TAKE THE STAND (IRE) 11-10-12 Peter Bowen

CELTIC SON (FR) 8-10-11 David Pipe

LITTLE BRICK (FR) 8-10-11 David Pipe

NED KELLY (IRE) 11-10-11 Edward O'Grady IRE

SIMON 8-10-11 John Spearing

FAR FROM TROUBLE (IRE) 8-10-10 Christy Roche IRE

BALLYCASSIDY (IRE) 11-10-09 Peter Bowen

CLAN ROYAL (FR) 12-10-09 Jonjo O'Neill

GALLANT APPROACH (IRE) 8-10-09 Charles Egerton;

LIVINGSTONEBRAMBLE (IRE) 11-10-09 Willie Mullins IRE

DUN DOIRE (IRE) 8-10-08 Tony Martin IRE

INNOX (FR) 11-10-08 Francois Doumen FR

KANDJAR D'ALLIER (FR) 9-10-08 Alan King

LORD OF ILLUSION (IRE) 10-10-08 Tom George

NIRVANA DU BOURG (FR) 6-10-08 Nicky Henderson

SLIM PICKINGS (IRE) 8-10-08 Tom Taaffe IRE

ZABENZ (NZ) 10-10-08 Philip Hobbs

BEWLEYS BERRY (IRE) 9-10-07 Howard Johnson

GROUND BALL (IRE) 10-10-07 Charlie Swan IRE

LONGSHANKS 10-10-07 Kim Bailey

URSUMMAN (IRE) 8-10-07 Niall Madden IRE

BOTHAR NA (IRE) 8-10-06 Willie Mullins IRE

GRAPHIC APPROACH (IRE) 9-10-06 Charles Egerton

HOMER WELLS (IRE) 9-10-06 Willie Mullins IRE

LIBERTHINE (FR) 8-10-06 Nicky Henderson

NIL DESPERANDUM (IRE) 10-10-06 Venetia Williams

SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 10-10-06 Gordon Elliott IRE

OSSMOSES (IRE) 10-10-05 Don Forster

PHILSON RUN (IRE) 11-10-05 Nick Williams

PUNTAL (FR) 11-10-05 David Pipe

THE OUTLIER (IRE) 9-10-05 Venetia Williams

TIKRAM 10-10-05 Alan King

CHURCH ISLAND (IRE) 8-10-04 Michael Hourigan IRE

GARVIVONNIAN (IRE) 12-10-04 Ned Mitchell IRE;

KERSTINO TWO 10-10-04 Charlie Longsdon

MAURICE (FR) 7-10-04 Donald McCain Jnr

MCKELVEY (IRE) 8-10-04 Peter Bowen

NAUNTON BROOK 8-10-04 Nigel Twiston-Davies

IRIS ROYAL (FR) 11-10-03 Nicky Henderson

JACK HIGH (IRE) 12-10-03 Ted Walsh IRE

KERRYHEAD WINDFARM (IRE) 9-10-03 Michael Hourigan IRE

PREACHER BOY 8-10-03 Ron Hodges

SONEVAFUSHI (FR) 9-10-03 Venetia Williams

INCA TRAIL (IRE) 11-10-02 Donald McCain Jnr

JOES EDGE (IRE) 10-10-02 Ferdy Murphy

KILBEGGAN BLADE 8-10-02 Tom George

LE DUC (FR) 8-10-02 Paul Nicholls

RISK ACCESSOR (IRE) 12-10-02 Jonjo O'Neill

DUNBRODY MILLAR (IRE) 9-10-01 Peter Bowen

KYMANDJEN (IRE) 10-10-01 Paul Nolan IRE

PATRICKSNINETEENTH (IRE) 10-10-01 Paul Webber;

UNDENIABLE 9-10-01 Sue Smith

WITHOUT A DOUBT 8-10-01 Carl Llewellyn

A NEW STORY (IRE) 9-10-00 Michael Hourigan IRE

HAKIM (NZ) 13-10-00 John Spearing

JOUEUR D'ESTRUVAL (FR) 10-10-00 Willie Mullins IRE

LOU DU MOULIN MAS (FR) 8-10-00 Paul Nicholls

SYBELLIUS D'ARTAIX (FR) 7-10-00 Richard Chotard FR.

DIX VILLEZ (FR) 8-9-13Paul Nolan IRE

G V A IRELAND (IRE) 9-9-13 Francis Flood IRE

IVOIRE DE BEAULIEU (FR) 11-9-13 Ferdy Murphy

MARBLE GARDEN (USA) 6-9-13 Richard Chotard FR

ROSS COMM 11-9-13 Sue Smith

COLJON (IRE) 9-9-12 Paul Nolan IRE

COWBOYBOOTS (IRE) 9-9-12 Lawrence Well

IRON MAN (FR) 6-9-12 Peter Bowen

LATIMER'S PLACE 11-9-12 Nick Gifford

PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 9-9-12 Philip Hobbs

RANSBORO (IRE) 8-9-12 Nicky Richards

NITRAT (FR) 6-9-11 Francois Doumen FR

THE BANDIT (IRE) 10-9-11 Emma Lavelle

DUBLIN HUNTER (IRE) 11-9-10 Dessie Hughes IRE

FAIR PROSPECT 11-9-10 Lucinda Russell

JUST IN DEBT (IRE) 11-9-10 Martin Todhunter

IRIS BLEU (FR) 11-9-09 David Pipe

MODEL SON (IRE) 9-9-06 Alison Thorpe

SOLARIUS (FR) 10-9-06 David Pipe

KORELO (FR) 9-9-05 Steve Gollings

MARK THE MAN (IRE) 10-9-03 Noel Meade IRE

EXIT SWINGER (FR) 12-9-02 Richard Ford

DAUPHIN DES CARRES (FR) 9-9-01 David Pipe

RIDE THE STORM (IRE) 10-9-01 Edward O'Grady IRE

ESPOIR DU BOCAGE (FR) 12-8-11 Michael Scudamore

SHANNON'S PRIDE (IRE) 11-8-11 Richard Guest

THEATRE KNIGHT (IRE) 9-8-11 Howard Johnson

BANG AND BLAME (IRE) 11-8-10 Mick Easterby

THE PARISHIONER (IRE) 9-8-09 Michael Hourigan IRE

HEROS COLLONGES (FR) 12-8-06 Norma Macauley.

Not qualified: ABBEYTOWN and IRIS DE BALME (FR).

[ONEDUNME]

....and their view after today's announcements


Last year's winner Numbersixvalverde has been allotted "more or less" the weight his handler Martin Brassil expected at Tuesday's John Smith's Grand National weights launch at the Savoy Hotel in London.

The 11-year-old will have to carry 11st 3lb as he bids to become the first horse since Red Rum to score in back-to-back Nationals.

The British Horseracing Board's senior Handicapper Phil Smith has handed him a rating 11lb higher than that at the equivalent stage 12 months ago.

"His weight is more or less what I thought it would be, as you could not expect him to have the same weight after winning last year," said Brassil.

"The horse is sound and will probably have two more runs before the race, firstly in the Bobbyjo Chase (at Fairyhouse on February 24) and then perhaps in a hurdle race some time in March.

"He's in a good frame of mind at the moment, you would just be hoping for a lot of luck in running. 'Slippers' Madden would ride again, as he did nothing wrong last time."

Numbersixvalverde is one of five 14-1 co-favourites with William Hill in company with compatriots Dun Doire, Far From Trouble, Hedgehunter and Point Barrow.

Francois Doumen has four possibles with Kelami (10st 12lb) and Innox (10st 8lb) looking his more likely runners at this stage.

Gold Cup-bound L'Ami (11st 8lb) and Nitrat (9st 11lb) are his other hopefuls.

"I don't want to commit L'Ami to the National yet. I will run him in the Gold Cup, see how that goes, then talk to the owner about the National," said the Frenchman.

"Nitrat needs another run first to see how he is, I am a bit cautious about him.

"You would say Kelami and Innox would be likely runners. Kelami was unlucky when he fell in the National before, but he is a wonderful jumper.

"He's a bit better this year and I am quite keen on his chances."

Ginger McCain may have handed over the running of his yard to his son Donald, but he remains very much an integral part of the business and the National would not be the same without him.

Along with Inca Trail (10st 2lb) who finished eighth last year, they also have the interesting French recruit Maurice (10st 4lb).

"Maurice was bought by Mr (Trevor) Hemmings and is supposed to be one of the best novice chasers in France," he said.

"We have only been running him over hurdles so far to protect his weight and he is going to need a run over fences to see if he is a National-quality horse. He has a good weight.

"Inca Trail might be struggling to get in. He ran a big race in it last year and a cracker in the Becher. He's an Aintree horse and if he doesn't get in, he'd go for the Topham. He'd be the one I'd fancy if he got in."

Alan King has yet to taste success in the greatest race of them all and looks set to rely on Kandjar D'Allier (10st 8lb) this time.

"This has always been the plan for Kandjar D'Allier," he said. "He stands very little racing and will go to the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup on Saturday then if he runs well, probably straight to the National. I'm not worried about his weight - he'll get in.

"Tikram (10st 5lb) is probably less likely to go. He will go to Cheltenham for either the two mile and five or the three-mile handicap, but would be an unlikely starter in the National."

Tom George is delighted with the 11st 2lb allotted to his Royal & SunAlliance Chase runner-up Idle Talk. He could also saddle two other runners.

"Idle Talk has all the right credentials for the race and he would go there after the Festival.

"Kilbeggan Blade (10st 2lb) runs in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup on Saturday and we will see how he gets on there.

"Lord Of Illusion (10st 8lb) was hampered by a loose horse last year and broke a blood vessel. He has been given a spring campaign and will go for the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and then the National.

"I'm happy with the weights, within reason. You'd always want them to carry a bit less though."



(reopens) Michael O'Brien refused to rule out the possibility of a tilt at the National with Gold Cup third Forget The Past, who was allotted 11st 9lb and is a 25-1 chance with Coral.





"He was never travelling very well from the word go the other day (in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup) so I am going to have his back checked out again and his target will be the Ryanair Chase (at Cheltenham)," he said.





"If you look at all his form he is probably a better horse over two and a half or two mile six and even in the Gold Cup last year he didn't get the trip.





"I don't know about the National as I'll have to speak to his owner. They would get nice ground which will be a help as he wants it no worse than easy to soft.





"He won't go for the Gold Cup, though. We are hoping In Compliance does," he told At The Races

[crowie]

Will wait until nearer the time and the field is more or less confirmed but I will be following my usual selection method of ruling out anything above 11st (and also running from out of the handicap) as well as French bred horses and greys. Winner should come from whats left.

[ONEDUNME]

I remember the debate about French horses I 'm totally unconvinced by the argument that they can't win because they never have or something. I can't remember the numbers but they'd had quite a few second places and if they can get a second place it means that they only need one faller to get a first place so it's only a matter of time in my view.

What's the one of JPM's that Douman trains? Is that French bred or was it shipped over from Ireland Mmmm. Gonna get my money on that one.

[crowie]

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME

I remember the debate about French horses I 'm totally unconvinced by the argument that they can't win because they never have or something. I can't remember the numbers but they'd had quite a few second places and if they can get a second place it means that they only need one faller to get a first place so it's only a matter of time in my view.

What's the one of JPM's that Douman trains? Is that French bred or was it shipped over from Ireland Mmmm. Gonna get my money on that one.

Aye, I think we have had this debate a few times ODM, usually April each year I think.

1909 was the last French bred winner I think.

The way I look at it - the 3000m steeplechase at things like the Olympics and World Athletics championship is usually won by an African, say Kenyan, Ethopian or what ever. Now the field at the start is mixed, and there are some good white European or US athletes in the field no doubt and some of them will possibly place, but none of them ever seen to win.

The event is dominated by the Africans, or rather its not an event the white Europeans or the American athletes (both black and white) do well in. Why? Personally I think its to do with the genetic make up of the athletes. The event seems to suit the Africans better than most other athletes.

Same with the Grand National. There will be good French bred horses in the event, some will place, the odd one will even win but genetically, I don't think French horses are bred to run 4 1/2 miles over fences. I just think there is something in their make up which sees the majority of them lacking the sufficient stamina to win.

Of course the breeding effect may diminish as it seems to be a more international thing nowadays. Say take a French bred horse and it breeds with an Irish bred, your effectively making it half French/half Irish and maybe through time that would be enough to give it the sufficient breeding to win.

I am sure at some point there will be a French bred winner again, by law of averages there has to be, but until I see a significant change in their performance ie 4 or 5 winners in 6 or 7 years then I will be happy to continue to oppose them or rule them out.

One I did notice, French bred, thats in the correct weight category this year is Clan Royal. Think its due to carry 10-9 at current weights and thats the first time in a couple of years it has been back below 11st. Its probably been as close to breaking the trend as any French bred in recent years. The thing is its age is now going against it at 12.

Course the above could all be bollocks but I am happy to go with the last 98 years stats on my side at the moment!

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by crowie

One I did notice, French bred, thats in the correct weight category this year is Clan Royal. Think its due to carry 10-9 at current weights and thats the first time in a couple of years it has been back below 11st. Its probably been as close to breaking the trend as any French bred in recent years. The thing is its age is now going against it at 12.

Another one of JPM's horses. He's never had a grand national winner so I'll just jump on everything in green and gold. That's my national bets sorted out


And they say picking the national winner is difficult