A bit of a strange position with 33

[Jezza]

Been a while since I posted a hand history up here (this is for a few reasons, one of them being ive only had pretty straightforward hands the past month or two!). Anyway here is a situation I would like your opinions on.

Seat 1: HERO (£200 in chips)
Seat 2: ribbon (£200 in chips)
Seat 3: 2_y_y_2 (£249.25 in chips)
Seat 4: VANPOISON (£200 in chips)
Seat 5: Doclloyd (£80.75 in chips)
Seat 6: Villian (£203.75 in chips)
Seat 7: Mr_bojang sits out
Seat 8: 730777 (£204.18 in chips)
Seat 9: Strudel (£188.25 in chips)
Seat 10: warning (£343.25 in chips)
warning: posts small blind £1
HERO: posts big blind £2

----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to HERO [3s 3c]
Mr_bojang sits back
2_y_y_2: folds
VANPOISON: folds
Doclloyd: folds
VILLIAN: raises to £5
730777: folds
Strudel: folds
warning: folds
HERO:calls £3

----- FLOP ----- [8d Js 4c]
HERO: checks
VILLIAN: checks
----- TURN ----- [8d Js 4c][3d]
HERO: ??????????

Ok preflop is completely standard so no real debate there I guess. Some might like leading the flop if you feel he has probably raised with two big overcards to my PP (and if thats the case theres a good chance he has missed that flop). As it was I decided to check, which he followed by checking behind. I hit my set on the turn kabooom.

So now first to go whats the play? Check and call? Check and raise? Just lead out?. Stick your opinions up here and also what you think his range of possible hands are (I had not seen him play a hand before this one).

Jez

[alexross]

I would guesstimate his range is pairs 88's->AA, suited connectors or aj, AK or AQ suited maybe..(I am assuming this is a real cash game)

Personally I would raise to 18, and hope for a call. if he calls he must be on a big draw, set or overpair.. so caution is in order..

I am not a fan of checkraising in cash games with a small set, - no point getting outdrawn - even on a rainbow board. Interested to see what happened now.

[Colbro]

I would say the only hand to worry about is JJ. It's not quite a min raise but it still looks like he wants a call so a high pair is most likely. The fact there was no continuation bet after you checked is interesting though. It seems like he does not want to scare you away.

It seems a good spot to bet here. It could look like you are trying to steal the pot with a 3 coming on the turn. He will assume this does not help much so may call even if he has missed the flop/turn. With lots of limpers in the pot a higher set may be a worry but this risk is lesser with a raised pot.

[dj_mercury]

I would throw a pot size bet to know if he has something or not. Looks like one of those hands where you are in a favourable position, but you risk to win almost nothing compared to the strength of you cards and loose a lot if he is waiting for a card to complete a straight if he has two cards around the j and the 8 or less likely two suited cards of D.

[dj_mercury]

Originally Posted by dj_mercury

I would throw a pot size bet to know if he has something or not. Looks like one of those hands where you are in a favourable position, but you risk to win almost nothing compared to the strength of you cards and loose a lot if he is waiting for a card to complete a straight if he has two cards around the j and the 8 or less likely two suited cards of D.

Just thinking about it a bit more, also the fact that he is waiting the straight is not really likely. I doubt he would have raised with something like Q - 8, 9-10 or things like that to then just check on the flop. I would still throw a pot sized bet, but I doubt he will call it.

[Jezza]

Hi guys,

Cheers for the responses so far. When he checked the flop it basically means he either 1) Hit big style or 2) Completely missed. I very much doubt he has QQ KK or AA here, or any hand containing a jack or even an 8. If he had any of these hands he would have certainly bet the flop after raising preflop. I have to think he basically either has a "two high cards" type hand like AK or AQ, either that or he has flopped a set also. I think its possible he could have the lower sets on the flop here. He only raised small preflop which a lot of people do with smaller pocket pairs (to try and build a bigger pot for if they hit their set, they wont raise a big raise like they might with queens which would limit the amount of callers they get, just a small one to drag everyone in). So the decision to check or bet here is quite a close one. If he has two high cards we would probably like an A to hit the river (and is he really going to chase for that if we bet now?) to get paid off and if he has the higher set we would like to lose the minimum, so checking would be good there as well. However I decided to bet. Firstly it disguises my hand. For the reasons I said before there is 0 chance he will think I have hit a set of 3s by leading the turn. If he has any hand reading skill at all he will realise that I think he has probably missed the flop thus could be leading the turn with almost any holding trying to steal the smallish pot. He certainly wont think I would with a hand as strong as a set. This could cause him to try and play back at me with whatever air he has and I could win a bigger pot because of it. He could also make a mistake and chase with his two high cards drawing dead for the river. Unfortunately it does mean I start to make the pot bigger and will lose a lot more to a higher set which is looking definately possible from the check on the flop. I guess we will have to make our minds up about that later on in the hand if he livens up. A slight plus to leading also is that there is now a diamond draw on the board. If he had raised preflop with two big cards suited in diamonds then I am charging him to hit his draw, which is far better than letting him hit it for free.

So all said and done I decided to bet the pot....

----- TURN ----- [8d Js 4c][3d]
HERO: bets £11
VILLIAN: raises to £22
HERO: ????????????

hmmm now what?

Jez

p.s. alexross yes this is a real cash game hand, I played it last night online.

[alexross]

fold. you are dominated. [either that or he is a total fish.. we shall see I guess.. ]

[Colbro]

I'm calling and then I'm betting the river. Put the pressure back on him.

[mrmuzeman]

Id check/call most of the time on the turn. Id bet sometimes as well, probly 2/3rds of the time check/call, 1/3 time bet. I usually am all about the betting but on this particular board he really could easily be drawing dead or massively thin. Id never checkraise.

As played on turn I call the minraise. He either has nothing at all, JJ/88 or slowplayed top pair like a donk. You have to call anyway, no point reraising back again cos hell only call you if youre beat.

Because of the set over set fear id basically check/call any river, doesnt really matter what size the bet is id call it. Give the sucker rope to bet the river and cut our losses if weve got unlucky at the same time.

[dj_mercury]

Originally Posted by Colbro

I'm calling and then I'm betting the river. Put the pressure back on him.

Agree.

[mrmuzeman]

For those probably leading the river what are you expecting him to be able to call with? Theres no point doing it unless you think theres a very good chance at him paying you off with a worse hand.

[Hippy Dave]

I'd have bet the flop

[Doc]

I'd call and check to him on the river. Your play does look like a steal and he might well be testing the waters with two big diamonds (less likely) or something like TT

[Jezza]

Ok.

The min raise is a bit sick. It really starts to look like he might have flopped the bigger set (And this is in line with preflop and flop play from him). I dont think he has a lower PP than the J which has not made a set. If he had this sort of hand he MIGHT have bet the flop. Even if he didnt he would now be fearful of the jack and either fold or call. Probably the latter but he certainly doesnt min raise with it. Diamonds are a possibility also but I feel if he had a hand like AK or AQ diamonds then he would either just call me or raise bigger. The sole reason I am calling this turn bet is that my play looks like a steal and he could be getting annoyed at me with just two high cards. I am certainly not reraising as he is only calling/reraising with the bigger sets and folding all his bluffs. For this same reason I do not want to lead the river either. This would cause him to fold all his bluffs and only raise us when we are behind. So the next play went like this.........

----- RIVER ----- [8d Js 4c 3d][8s]
HERO: checks
VILLIAN: bets £20

Not the worst river as it makes 88 obv a little less likely. I think given our read that he could be trying to rebluff me in his eyes here we always have to at least call, but does anyone like a river raise?

Jez

[alexross]

ok jez stop milking it. post the hh
you either suck at poker or he does. my guess is he is boated up the the max....

BUT I NEED TO KNOW NOW GODDAMIT!