[skinnyman9000]

A friend of mine is interested in greyhound racing, mainly through being taken by his dad from a young age. He tries various different systems, but he has been dicussing one with me recently. I failed to see the long term potential in it, but he is trying it non the less. I doubt its a new system to anyone here, but this is basically what he is doing.

He uses betfair to look at the odds and he places the bets within a minute of the racing starting. He initially looks at the odds for the favourite dog. The odds for the favourite determines the rest of the betting, the system works like this:

If the odds for the favourite are 2.0+, he bets 1 unit on the top 2 favourites.
If the odds for the favourite are 3.0+, he bets 1 unit on the top 3
favourites.
If the odds for the favourite are 4.0+, he bets 1 unit on the top 4 favourites.

And so on and so forth. Im sure 99% of you can see the idea behind this. I'm not so sure that this system has a long term potential. I mean if his unit stake is £10, then he makes aroudn £15 on average in a winning race, but a losing race with 4 favourable dogs results in a £40 loss.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this system?

[AnothrSpacecat]

it sounds like absolute cod fillet to me (thats bad). punters, be they online, in a shop or at the track cannot pick winners regularly enough to make it pay simply by following odds.

there is a big case for multiple staking on one race however, but you almost have to forget the odds completely to make any system work, as in time its the largest BF prices thatll swing things in your favor.

in a typical graded race, youd be looking for the fastest 2-3 trappers in the field, if theres an inside runner thats likely to go for the rail then all the better. what you want is for the dogs that are potentially fast enough to get to the leaders to take a few knocks on the first bend, then all bets are off.

typically ill only back a race if theres a clear early advantage to two runners, who also have proven in trials or lower grades that they are capable of a time with a clear run. if theres a single danger in the race, that is a consistently fast wide runner/stayer who can roll with the punches then i leave the race completely. if theres others in the race who can compete with a clear run then i may still go for the trappers, especially if the dangers are on the outside.

ALL SAID, i lay 'em might even start a topic to track my progress as the dogs are by far my biggest profit on betfair, up about 80 on the horses (football im down about 4 million and ice hockey im down 13p, which i wouldve been using to get free bets matched!).

i can keep track of dogs within betfair but itd be good for this site to maybe get a decent dogs thread on the go. the best greyhound forums online are on betfair and dailydogs.co.uk, both have severely gone downhill recently, even with the huge meeting at hove this weekend coming up.

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by AnothrSpacecat

i can keep track of dogs within betfair but itd be good for this site to maybe get a decent dogs thread on the go. .

Feel free

[TopDog]

Would agree that initial system seems a bit ambitious

Also laying Bags dogs is risky due to the fact you would have to offer about 6-1 for a 3-1 shot to get matched.
Have noticed on other forums that Dutching at tracks like Monmore [Expert Advice] and Newcastle [DailySports Talk] are generating huge profits
But proof of the pudding is in the eating,so guys please feel free to post as thats the only way we are going to find out

[AnothrSpacecat]

3/1 - 6/1 ? Irrelevent. You really cant look at the industry odds and make any kind of comparison with Betfair.

Look at the overrounds just before the start of a normal Bags race, youll see that the prices are all about right. I've said this before but "big" prices on betfair are more of a reflection of the industry's scumbaggery than the layers on BF being stupid.

IMO the BF prices are right and the track prices are disgusting.

[AnothrSpacecat]

hmm

[TopDog]

Thats a good point u make about track prices mate

[skinnyman9000]

I agree that the top system is very ambitious.

Then again if we don't try and fail with these systems then we're never going to find one that works for us. I'm still on the hunt! haha