Been catching a bit of this on TV, and now that my ante post 40/1 shot Villegas has blown it with his 3rd rnd 73, which took him from T1 to T23!!...well, I must wait on either a big push by Chopra(got 66/1) 4 off the lead , or K.Perry to finish ahead of Weekely for a nice treble.
But looking at the
Betfair odds I think there is some great value still to be had.
There has been some really solid low scoring amongst the field and there's no reason why that won't continue on the final day. Players are making big moves up the board ...6 of the current Top 10 started the day 17th or worse. Plus 10 of the 2nd rnd's Tied 10th or better players are now a minimum of 5 shots off the leader. A real swings and roundabouts comp, but there has been a lot of delays due to the weather.
JB Holmes sits 2 clear and his stats are good, but I see some big moves behind throughout the day and by the time he's teeing off the clubhouse target will be decent.
I think a 65/66 won't be uncommon , possibly a 64 posted...so -16 will get you close.
If Holmes maintains his play then he's hard to pass, but players like Justin Leonard have really hit a hot spot..with a near perfect round yesterday but he left room for imporvement in his putting, so he's got to be factored in.
Anyways, here's a few suggestions...
Charles Warren:
Back to lay @ 10.00 T2, 2 behind the leader
65/69/67...3 good rounds and only 3 bogeys on his cards. He's not that high on the stats but still managed to keep himself well in the game. He's due a good solid round and I feel he's saved it for the last one.
This is his 5th season on the tour and yet to win, so the pressure will be on him in this last round, but he's had 9 Top 10's, a 2nd, and a 3rd spot. Not going to be easy but I feel there is money to be made with a 'back to lay' approach with him as he is -5 for the opening 5 holes so far.
Phil Mickleson: LAY IN PLAY ....4 shots behind
His driving is way off this week, but his putter got hot yesterday and gave him that 67. I don't see him challenging, but he's worth watching for any early moves and then 'laying' as there are too many variables about him this week.
JB Holmes :
LAY @ 2.90 Leader and 2 clear of field
Too many possibles behind him, plus that early 4 birdie run yesterday wont be repeated and he can slip an unwanted bogey in under pressure...as his 2008 RND 4 scoring average of 74.00 shows. In 2007 he averaged 72.00....not my idea of a confident leader..BUT he did win this back in 2006 (before missing the cut when defending it in 2007!)
Justin Leonard BACK @ 15.5 - 16.5 ...4 off the lead,....
1st in Driving accuracy and 2nd GIR...that's what you need for a final round punt, plus the fact that he took 30 putts in yesterday's 66 teels you he had more to give. Not a big bet for me, but certainly one for ther '3 balls' or 'back to lay' and hope for a quick start. He's one of the few within shooting distance that has the experience of 'winning'....and that's worth 1-2 shots in my book.
I wouldn't put anyone off Chopra @ 30 either as he looked like hitting form , and he already has a 2008 win under his belt and dealt with the poor bounce effect since, so he's got to be there as well.
Lot of names, but I feel there's money to be won by following it in play and getting after the leader, Holmes.
PGA Tour: FBR Open: Final Round
TOTW/F/M Award(s): 1
