The Open Golf Championship

[Parahandy]

If the weather holds this week we look set for a top notch tournament. The last two winners have been rank outsiders. Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton started at any price but I don't see that happening at the most famous golf course on the planet where every former winner of The Open has previously won a major.

I've played golf all my life but rarely bet on the sport. With 160 players teeing it up, the outright market isn't the most appealing to me and my view is the 72 hole matchups offer the best chance of success.

I've had a look around and there are a wide variety of bets on offer. Here are the ones that caught my eye.

MATCHUPS
Expekt and centrebet are the best bookies as a tie is a winning bet to half stakes resulting in a small loss on an odds on shot and conversely a small win on an odds against selection.

Expekt
Michael Campbell to beat Thomas Bjorn 1.88.
Michael Campbell to beat Angel Cabrera 2.00
Graeme McDowell to beat Trevor Immelman 1.88
Adam Scott to beat Lee Westwood 1.88

The first bet above is my strongest fancy as Michael Campbell has played well in an Old Course Open before. As a young relatively inexperienced player, he was leading going into the last round in 1995, before losing out on a play off place by a single stroke in high winds. He's a much better player now and probably at his peak in his mid thirties. Won the last major (US Open) at Pinehurst last month with a brilliant performance in the last round to hold off Tiger Woods who was breathing down his neck and throwing everything at him. Thomas Bjorn was leading the Irish Open going into the last round at the K Club in Dublin a couple of weeks ago. He struggled all day, though still had his nose in front with only 3 holes left when he disappeared right off the radar with the worst finish I've ever seen from a world class player including an ELEVEN at the 16th hole where he hit 3 successive tee shots into the water. He's had psychological problems before after blowing the Open two years ago and I'll be very surprised if he can come back from the events in Ireland this week. Think it will take Bjorn a while to get going again and it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't make the cut. He's 2.80 at Bet&Win not to make it and this is tempting.

Campbell is on a real high just now and looks a value bet at evens to beat Cabrera who is a cracking good player himself but doesn't have a great track record on Links courses. In for a penny. . . .

Ulsterman Graeme McDowell is a rising star on the European tour and shot a fantastic 62 on the Old Course last autumn in the Dunhill Cup. Worth an interest against South African Trevor Immelman who is a fair player but not a standout.

Finally Aussie Adam Scott is on a par with Sergio Garcia ie both are the same age and are very close together in the World Rankings and stats this year on the PGA tour (USA). Scott hasn't shown his best form in Majors but at only 25 (a mere toddler in golfing terms) has his best years very much ahead of him and could go very well here. Lee Westwood is an up and down player and if the matchup was Garcia/Westwood the odds on the Spaniard would be a good bit shorter IMO, making Scott good value in this H to H.

OUTRIGHT
I'm going to have a small interest on Campbell and Scott on betfair and hope they both put in a good first round which would see the odds tumble and allow a lay off for a nice profit no matter what happens after that. Scott is 40.00 with Campbell at 75.00, both of which look very big to me.

[MickeyPaul]

Great stuff Para. I could be interested in your Michael Campbell bets myself. I know very little about golf but his name has always stuck in my mind over the years - he does tend to play well in Scotland doesn't he? I don't suppose there are stats at hand for his performances in events up here?

[FC Basher]

Some threeballs for people to cast their eye on
Calcavecchia/Dyson/Sabbatini (06:30 BST) Sabbatini is 2.60 to beat these also rans
Cejka/Duval/Weir (13:31 BST) Cejka is 2.50 to beat somemore also rans
Furyk/Maruyama/Singh (13:42 BST) I like Maruyama in these events 3.75 he's only got to beat Singh but he's massive value because Furyks in this group,Furyks the outsider in this group imho.

[Beanie]

Did you see the peice about Campbell and his security concerns Para?

Just mentioning it while his name is being discussed, but couldn't see it affecting the bets, which I'll prob follow.

[Beanie]

I might also consider some sort of bet to oppose Tiger, depending on the weather.

I reckon a lot of the once a year punters find him far too easy to back. Will depend on weather though, as if its near perfect I might be put off.

Having lived 5 minutes walk from the Old Course for most of the last 3 years I can't remember 2 consecutive days when it was all calm. Always some sort of blustery wind.

[Beanie]

And leaving the quest for value and good bets aside for one moment, I'll probably stick a quid or two on Nicklaus to make the cut at towards 7.00.

If there is any man upstairs, surely he wouldn't let Jack finish his final tournament on a Friday

[traeth]

I agree with you parahandy on the ability to lay the bet on betfair [ something new to me and with golf being slower i am considering this]
So i am looking for value! with the bookies and intend to lay off the bet. My intended bet is each way with the bookies - laddies /totesport each way then laying with betfair top 5 finish.
My first bet is Luke Donald e.w. @33 with laddies presently able to lay at 8.0 with betfair - intend to wait until this drops a bit .Another that looks value to me [ but i do not know about golf] is Poulter @100 totesport and the lay is now 21 .My belief is that if either of these two have good starts they should be easy to lay.
Now i am totally new to this so i would appreciate advice from others on how to go about it. Will consider Cambell on your recommendation para .

thanks

[fasteddy]

I think the advent of "betfair' and exchanges really has changed forever the way that we bet.

This is a good example...it makes sense to be smart and find the prices and then lay off...it can be done on all these big 'fields' and all it takes is a bit more research and you will be guranteed a good return.

This year I like the look of 5 players:

Jim Furyk : his stats are great; he's just hit form at the right time building up over the last month or so. Won a Major, so that mokey is off his back as well. Take a patient player to win this week, able to change according to the weather and the ecevnts unfolding around him.

Ernie Els: Not a lot to say, other than of the top 5 he strikes me as the best value. Loves this style and he always plays with a different confidence here.

Adam Scott: my man for the future. Great game, loving solid swing, keeps its shape under pressure and he is maturing very well with course management

Nick Price: oldie, but a goldie. His stats have been coming back up again, and he has the perfect game for this week. Big hitter, for a small guy, at his age and his iron plays are still up there with the best. I imgaine the longer layout will catch some players out when the wind picks up, IF it does, but I think he'll be there punching away into the greens

Miguel-Angel Jiménez: backed him a month or so ago and I'm happy with him, still. He's a supremely confident player when his game comes on. His price is one that I see being shortened after the 1st round....be tough for him to win it, but he's a great e/w shot for the Top European @ 22's.

Be a very interesting week of golf and I'm off to check out the stats for a 'hole in one'!

[Oddsfellow]

Some quality posts here guys.

Parahandy makes the point about Bjorn choking a few weeks back and that must have cut deep. The danger being he generally has good open form and finsihed Tied 2nd here in 2000. The point about outsiders is well made but the last few years are scattered with high priced place and winners so i'll be looking for some more of that. St Andrews has very generous fairways so accuracy off the tee is not paramount giving big hitters an advantage.

Paul Lawrie 300/1 Totesport, 500/1 Betfair, 50/1 Place only
Could lightening strike twice? Probably not, but Lawrie has won the Dunhill Links at St Andrews and is worth a little flutter at these odds. Started well last week but a poor finish saw him sliding down the finishing places. Possible place claims.

M A Jimenez 120/1 Betfair
Is definetly getting a second wind to his career after a pretty poor spell states side. Decent form at the old course and has certainly found that winning feeling and the nerves involved over recent times which is important for any winning open champ.

Of the more conventional choices i like Els who is bound to go well, and Clarke seems in good nick after the layoff but mentally might not be ready yet. However my only other small bet will be on garcia whose game i think is ideally suited to the course.

[Parahandy]

Beanie, I did read about Campbell and his security worries but I don't think it will affect his game. Re Jack Nicklaus making the cut - while I was doing some research last night I saw he was 11.00 at Hills to do just that. Have a look there if you fancy a bet on Jack being there for the weekend.

Re comments about Tiger Woods. 3/1 or thereabouts is nonsense whether he wins or not. Absolutely no value in those odds. That said Tiger is in with a real shout on a course that looks sure to suit him. He's been pretty wayward for some time now but he could well get away with that here. I remember his game plan in 2000 where he hardly used his driver.

Too much has been made of the fact the course has been lengthened. It's only by a total of 164 yards over about half a dozen holes which is no big deal and if it stays dry and warm the ball will be travelling a very long way as it invariably does on links courses in good weather. This tournament will be won by a player whose short game is hot this week. Awkward pin placements will be the course's defence unless of course the wind gets up.

[kompressaur]

I'll put the outrights from the threads here and check BP Open Events for Thursdays plays

[Beanie]

Looks like Hills have cut their prices Para.

Any chance of Nicklaus to make the cut at 9.00 Komp?

[Beanie]

Sorry Komp, forget that, just realised I can do it myself.

[kompressaur]

Sorry beanie has to be out right betting only on this one. Make up a special 'to make cut' one in vbookie forum. Add 2 or 3 others if you want

[Beanie]

All done for anyone wanting to bet on it - http://www.thedailypunt.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2383