Golf - AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

[Oddsfellow]

1st bet of the week

2PTS EW Charles Warren 100/1 Ladbrokes. Do not expect this price to last too long. Warren hits plenty of greens and a fairly strong showing this week make him a nice selection at juicy odds.

[Chief77]

Gonna follow you here Oddsfellow. Best of luck with this one. Gonna have a look tonight to see if I fancy any others.

[Oddsfellow]

Price gone now down to 66/1 but 80's is available elsewhere. I shall be taking on Mike Weir in the matchups this week. He has great course form, putts well here and has been heavily backed this week. So why take him on? Well he has had a new coach in the winter and when that happens it takes time to adjust to the changes. I doubt he will see any benefit this year and if he were to get into contention then that is when the old habits and doubt creep in.

[Chief77]

Paddy Powers offer of 11/8 for one of the big 7 to win this event looks good to me. Singh, Furyk, Donald, Harrington, Weir and Love are included and it would be disappointing if at least one of them wasn't there or there abouts at the end. In the past 6 years Mickleson, Singh and Davis Love(twice) have won it.


Like the look of KJ Choi at 33/1 this week. Ol dsmiley KJ's been in great for m this yera with 2 top 10 finises from 3 tournaments. He has form around this course as well with a 4th place finish in 2004 and a 14th in 2005 (He didn't play here last year).

Apparently the greens around Pebble beach are pretty small which means the players with bad greens in regulations stats should struggle. KJ has excellent stats of 77% GIR and of the leading 20 in the betting only Furyk beats him. (79%).

Hes 13/2 for top Rest of the World player which looks decent when you consider E/W pays out on top 4.

For top European I'm gonna have a sneaky bet on Olazabal @10/1. Hes had 2 top 20 finishes here over the past two seasons and hopefully he can do something similar this weekend.

Verdict:
60 Points on 1 of the Big 7 to win @ 11/8
10 Points E/W on KJ Choi @13/2 to be Top Rest of World Player ( Each Way Odds 1/5 places 1,2,3,4)
5 Points E/W on KJ Choi @33/1 ( Each Way Odds 1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5)
5 Points E/W on Jose Olazabal to be top European @10/1 ( Each Way Odds 1/3 places 1,2)

[Oddsfellow]

As always Chief looking good before the off. You been knocking on the door of a big win all year so i reckon you must be due.

Bad weather is forecast for Pebble Beach this weekend so it may well turn in to a bit of a lottery. Rainy soft conditions is not good for the long hitters as that advantage gets eroded. This is one of the reasons why over the years the players who do well generally have good greens in reg stats as Chief highlighted.

As well as my Warren bet i am also on Vijay at 10/1 but as that price is gone now will not post that here. Instead have a couple more outsiders, one who should make the top 10 and the other is massive odds but always putts well here so is worth a nibble.

Nick Watney 4/1 top 10 finish @ Stan James 5 points

Mark Brooks 40/1 top 10 finish @ Stan James 5 points

The final bey for me is a player who did well here last year and looks massive odds for this particular market

Paul McGinley 14/1 Top European 1/4 odds 1,2,3 2 points ew

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by Oddsfellow

Nick Watney 4/1 top 10 finish @ Stan James 5 points

Mark Brooks 40/1 top 10 finish @ Stan James 5 points

The final bey for me is a player who did well here last year and looks massive odds for this particular market

Paul McGinley 14/1 Top European 1/4 odds 1,2,3 2 points ew

Aye McGinley looks big alright. Played well last week and finally looks to be playing up to the standard hes capable of.

By the way whos this Nick Watney guy. Seen he finished in the top 10 last year but thats the first I've heard of him. Is he a regular on the tour?

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by Chief77

By the way whos this Nick Watney guy. Seen he finished in the top 10 last year but thats the first I've heard of him. Is he a regular on the tour?

Joint leader after a cracking round of 65! Thats who he is! Great call Odds! Hope he stays there or thereabouts for you. You're on fire buddy.

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by Chief77

Verdict:
60 Points on 1 of the Big 7 to win @ 11/8
10 Points E/W on KJ Choi @13/2 to be Top Rest of World Player ( Each Way Odds 1/5 places 1,2,3,4)
5 Points E/W on KJ Choi @33/1 ( Each Way Odds 1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5)
5 Points E/W on Jose Olazabal to be top European @10/1 ( Each Way Odds 1/3 places 1,2)

Well one of the big 7 managed to win with Phil Mickleson winning by 5 strokes. It seems big Phil is back in business after a poor start to the year.
KJ Choi had a poor weekend and finished well down the pack. Olazabal was leading European going into the final round but a disastrous 75 meant he finished on -3 and only the 4th highest European. Slight profit for the weekend thanks to Phil.

Points Staked:100
Points Returned:142.50
Profit:42.50

[Oddsfellow]

Good stuff Chief, nice profit.