GOLF: HSBC World Match Play , BBC Tv, Thurs, Wentworth

[fasteddy]

Ok, we have 16 players competing in a match play format ( win the hole rather than count the strokes) , over 3 days of play.

Players already out and scores can be seen here:
http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/new...Wentworth.html

I like the look of 3 today ,

Tim Clark to beat Luke Donald
Mike Weir to beat Adam Scott
Robert Karlsson to beat Furyk

As I write I see stanjames are pricing it in running at
Clark 5/4 ( level)
Weir 4/7 ( 1 up)
Karlsson 5/4 ( level)

to me there's value in a treble here , with a decent single on Karlsson.

Scott and Furyk are coming off wins over the weekend , which is great for them but can sometimes lead to a slight 'bounce' in play.
Donald is a player I think is over rated , while Clark is a very tough competitor whom Donald will struggle to shake off.

Not a lot more to say as it's in play. Good luck

[fasteddy]

Micheel is now 3 Up on Woods and Tiger has yet to make a birdie. He won't be putting everything into this tournie, regardless of huis winning streak...he only cares about the big ones...and so this will be prepararion for the Ryder Cup, in my opinon
Also he hasn't gone thru his usual routine of preparing for a comp this week , so I'd say that now is a good time to get into backing against him.

Micheel has been in great form lately and was never going to be a pushover...

13/8 in running at 3 Up...PUNT IT!!

[fasteddy]

Outrights:

Karlsson @ 20/1
Weir @ 10/1

in running....both in form this season and showing an early liking for the course....worth a few quid at the moment.
Opposite ends of the draw as well.

[fasteddy]

Micheel 2 Up @ 5/2 .....backing him again...it's just too big even if he has lost a hole advantage...of course you have 36 holes to get thru and Woods has plenty of time , but I'm taking a view early on and sticking with it. That's the gamble!

[Winrew]

Good luck Eddy

[fasteddy]

cheers, Winrew.

Micheel back to 3 Up...Wodds struggling with the greens but I've seen enough to know he'll not be so poor on the next 18. Best to keep a wtching brief on this game for those Woods fans...a good start after lunch will see the prices yo yo like mental kids on pogo sticks!!

Karlsson totally dominating Furyk....in command and loking good for the cash.

Weir is in control as well, can't see a turnaround in this one , but it has happened in the past.

Clark: not made the breakaway I'd hoped but still in form with hs play so far. Be happier if he can 2 up into lunch.

Stole the odds on the matches listed...we have the edge at the moment.

The weather plays its part . Today its haevy, damp and not to everyone's liking. Big leads will be hard to peg back if it stays the same , but I'm sure it will clear a bit in the afternoon so it's only reasonable to expect a few moves from those behind.

[fasteddy]

I'm off out now...so won't be here for the next few hours....ENJOY!

[edinlichtie]

Nice one fasteddy.

Only read this a short while ago and managed to pump the 11/10 on Micheel.

Tiger then promptly hit it into the trees, and Micheel is now 8/15 at lunch

[stereoman]

WHHEEEE!! Micheel 4 up with 6 holes to play! :loon

[fasteddy]

Micheel wins 4&3...excellent stuff folks...nice start to the comp.
Karlsson wins as well...the single on him is up
Weir wins his match as well!....so all we need is Tim Clark to finish off a poorly performing Luke Donald and that's a great day of betting.

Come on Timmo!!!!

[fasteddy]

Well that was a pretty good start overall.
Tim Clark performed wonders to come back from 4 down with 9 to play against Donald. Very unlucky.

Tomorrow's pairings:

Monty vs Campbell
Casey vs Weir

Karlsson vs Cabrera
Micheel vs Donald


Karlsson vs Cabrera
First glance it is again Karlsson who stands out . Cabrera played well enough and is Fav with some of the firms, but he's not totally on his game for me.

Both big hitters but Cabrera's game is well suited to the course and he can rely on the par 5's for birdies, while Karlsson is a 'confidence' type of player.
The winner will face either Micheel or Donald and I think they will be delighted with that and are already looking to the final.

If Karlsson can get the same start as today he will be hard to pass. Cabrera can attack back on stroke play but in match play he isn't a fav of mine.

It won't be easy on paper and Cabrera has loads of improvement in him , but I'll stick with the Swede just now.

Monty vs Campbell: Campbell didn't play well at all , but he was lucky to have been paired with the 'weakest' member in the tournie
Monty came alive on the second 18 and that could be enough to carry him passed Campbell on confidence levels.

Casey vs Weir: Casey destroyed Goosen over a 6 hole run at the start of the second 18 and will have taken a load of momentum from it.
Weir played nice steady golf, had a couple of bogeys but did what he had to do.
I'll stick with Weir on this pairing as I feel he has the greater consistency in his game, although when casey does find his stride he is often unstoppable.

Micheel vs Donald:
How much his win over Woods has taken out of him is impossible to tell , but for me it won't be that much. People often underestimate anyone playing Tiger , but as we saw today class tells and Micheel does have 'major' class in him.
Donald didn't play as well as he could but got passed the winning line. I don't think he will be up for it as much tomorrow as I saw a certian lack of 'fire' in his play today. Just enough niggling negatives to put me off him.


So, I'll take wins for:

Karlsson
Monty

Weir
Micheel

With our outright bets on Weir @10/1 and Karlsson @20/1
we are sitting pretty enough as they are now best priced at
7's and 10's.

There is no way Donald is a 0/30 fav...he will NOT win this TOURNAMENT...that's my Statement of the week.
He is a great bet to 'lay' outright...brilliant stuff.

Monty, Campbell and Casey are also not on my list either...just missing something ...can't say exactly what but just not there in their games for now.

The proximity of the Ryder Cup plays its part and Monty may not be 100% focused , while Campbell is not firing.
Casey is not experienced enough in this format to be backed with too much confidence.

Further Outright:
Micheel @ 12/1 sportingodds ...MASSIVE price ..just too big. Donald is not on his game and the 36 holes will take its toll on his character. Micheel has the hunger for it and will be deperate to show his win over Woods was not a fluke.

[fasteddy]

1/4 final matches

Micheel @ 13/8 (vs Donald)
Karlsson @ 11/8 (vs Cabrera)
Monty @ 11/10 (vs Campbell)
Weir @ 1/1 (vs Casey) ......all odds from paddypower

My Bets:
4 large singles , double on Karlsson/Micheel , 4 trebles and an accy.

That'll do for tomorrow.

AS I've already written...I agree with the bookies on the betting as I think the top 4 in it are not 100% on their game for a variety of reasons , so the value lies with those at the bigger odds.

Looking at the draw I really think Weir from the top half is in the final already. Bold statement , but it's just the way I see it. He's got the big game nerves, will be more intent in his play then maybe the 'Euro Ryder Duo' , while defending Champion Campbell just looks out of sorts.

The bottom half is the tough one , with Donald, Cabrera , Micheel and Karlsson.
But again Donald isn't that arsed about it in my opinion , while Cabrera will wilt as it progresses because he's the type to get a bit bored with the 36 holes a day format. If he falls behind by 3 or more you imagine him struggling to fire himself up.
Micheel is a more likely 'inspired' player and something like this will be a real feather in his cap. Karlsson just thrives on winning, with his confidence the key. Played very well in the 1st round so shouldn't be lacking anything tomorrow.

Good Luck.

[edinlichtie]

Right eddy, think i'll join in on your bets tomorrow (if u don't mind )

One change, Monty is now best priced 4/5.

What sorta percentages are u putting on yer double/trebles/acca compared to your single stakes?

Nice work

[Chief77]

First off fasteddy well done on some cracking selections today. You were unlucky not to get the full sweep. However I'm gonna have to take you on with regard Luke Donald.

As soon as Els was knocked out I was all over Donald E/W @6/1. I think hes a fantastic player and to say he isn't arsed sounds kinda strange. Why didn't he just lose against Clark if he wanted a free weekend? Hes been playing consistently well all year and is infinitely better than this time last year.

I reckon he'll win quite comfortably tomorrow and will then possibly play against Karlssonn in the Semis. That'll be a tough game but I'm hoping he'll edge it to set up a final with Weir/Monty. I agree with your other picks but its Donald all the way for me.

Good Luck with your bets buddy.

[fasteddy]

Hi guys.....good luck Chief with Donald...you're right in what you say but it's just a hunch with me and him...as I said he doesn't inpsire me at the moment.

As for the % question...I am a singles guy in betting ...but love to cover the perms...so it's 10pt max on singles , with 5pt doubles and 3 pt trebles 1pt accy...hope that helps edinlichtie

off out now...back this afternoon