Golf 2011 US Open

[traeth]

2011 US Open Book Closes 16 Jun 12:00

this time of year with minimal football betting I'll have a few interest bets on this event , any comments would be appreciated , I'll post my usual selections tomorrow
odds from bet365 for half the field
Each-way 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6

Lee Westwood 10/1
Luke Donald 10/1
Phil Mickelson 12/1
Rory McIlroy 18/1
Martin Kaymer 22/1
Steve Stricker 22/1
Hunter Mahan 22/1
Matt Kuchar 25/1
Nick Watney 28/1
Dustin Johnson 28/1
K.J. Choi 33/1
Jason Day 40/1
Bubba Watson 40/1
Graeme McDowell 40/1
David Toms 45/1
Jim Furyk 50/1
Adam Scott 50/1
Padraig Harrington 50/1
Robert Karlsson 50/1
Ian Poulter 55/1
Charl Schwartzel 55/1
Paul Casey 55/1
Geoff Ogilvy 55/1
Matteo Manassero 60/1
Sergio Garcia 60/1
Retief Goosen 60/1
Brandt Snedeker 66/1
Justin Rose 66/1
Rickie Fowler 70/1
Aaron Baddeley 70/1
Lucas Glover 70/1
Francesco Molinari 70/1
Ernie Els 75/1
Angel Cabrera 80/1
Zach Johnson 80/1
Ricky Barnes 90/1
Jonathan Byrd 90/1
Stewart Cink 90/1
Bill Haas 90/1
Ryan Moore 90/1
Alvaro Quiros 90/1
Gary Woodland 90/1
Y.E Yang 90/1
Martin Laird 100/1
Webb Simpson 100/1
Robert Allenby 100/1

[traeth]

just read this from the Telegraph

US Open 2011: five to watch

SAM SAUNDERS The biggest story in sport is only seven days away if Sam Saunders can bring a little of the family gene pool to bear. Saunders is the grandson of Arnold Palmer and as such carries the weight of curiosity on his shoulders. He made it into the field only via a play-off at a qualifying event last Monday.

LUKE DONALD OK, no prizes for originality. Though it could be that the world No 1 slot that he claimed at Wentworth acts like the Manager of the Month award in the Premier League: it puts the mockers in his chances. Only once in his past 15 outings has Donald finished outside the top 10. He is twice a winner this year and tops the PGA Tour money list.

YE YANG The Korean is the golfing version of the beetle. No matter how much pressure an event heaps on his back, he just rolls right on. At the US PGA in 2009 he became the first player to overturn a deficit on the final day of a major to beat Tiger Woods. Yang’s ruthless monotony is ideal for the demands of Congressional.

MATT KUCHER Up to No 6 in the world this quiet American is gaining in confidence as well as competence. Putting is his weak suit but his long handled flat stick has become much more reliable. He is a big contender if he gets it working here.

MARTIN KAYMER On the grounds that class is permanent and the last time the US Open was held here it was won by a man who missed the cut at his previous event (Ernie Els), Kaymer is this year’s classic sleeper. The searing form of 2010 and early 2011 has deserted him this spring, but if he finds his rhythm he has the game and the psyche.

[traeth]

my first bets are 1st round leader , 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5 with bet365

1 Alvaro Quiros @ 76.00 EW ...I'm expecting him to well this year
2 Bubba Watson @ 51.00 EW ...long hitter
3 Rory McIlroy @ 23.00 win ...started well in the Masters

[Bigkegman]

We I've backed Kucher. Hes probsbly been the most consistant. Might also do Mahan. Dont think the brits will do well

[Swooperman]

I keep being told Van Pelt, but I dont know why

Mind you, I kept telling myself it wasnt Alex McLeish, but lets not go there

[Winrew]

Decent article on the Sporting life site , hang on

Phil Mickelson accepts the idea that, in theory, the US Open should be a hard tournament for him to win.

"It's a challenge for me because it's difficult off the tee," he says. "It's not as easy to get up and down around the greens."

And yet while Fred Funk, one of the straightest hitters the world has ever seen, has a woeful US Open record (eight missed cuts and just two top 20s), Mickelson is a five-time runner-up in his national championship.

Quite simply, the odd wonky tee-shot has never stopped Mickelson (and others) from contending and at Congressional this week he looks to have a golden chance of fulfilling a childhood dream.

Mickelson's US Open second places have come in all sorts of conditions but all five have come on the East Coast of America - another surprise perhaps given that he's a West Coast boy who did all his early winning on his home side of the States.

But let's get more specific. Congressional doesn't just offer him a great chance because of its East Coast location. It's the way the course is set up that offers Mickelson a fantastic opportunity to end his US Open heartache.

The US Open has been a slightly different animal in recent years, due mainly to the values of Mike Davis being put in charge of course set-up.

He's introduced the idea of graduated rough - the worse the miss the bigger the punishment - and also eased back on greenside rough, putting the skill back into scrambling rather than letting everyone try their luck with a hopeful hack.

The result? A list of winners with strength and power from the tee and delicate hands up near the green.

Those players - Geoff Ogilvy, Angel Cabrera, Tiger Woods, Lucas Glover and Graeme McDowell - all have great short games while all bar G-Mac were way higher up the Driving Distance stats than the Driving Accuracy stats in the year of their victory.

With Congressional weighing in at 7,574 yards, length off the tee may be even more important than usual and that's why it's ridiculous to resort to the myth of perusing the Driving Accuracy stats for the most likely winner.

John McNamara of fantasy golf site Rotoworld spoke to Congressional's Director of Golf, John Lyberger, last week and the insights he got made Mickelson's name start flashing with a big green light even more.

Lyberger said that the ideal skill-sets for the new-look Congressional were high ball-flight, a great touch from the course's 96 bunkers, an ability to scramble and a sure touch on the ultra-quick bentgrass greens.

Add to that the ability to find the green from missed fairways and everything is screaming Mickelson.

The three-time Masters champ is 18th in Driving Distance, 9th in Scoring Average, 9th in the All-Around category, 17th in Scrambling, 6th in GIR percentage from a missed fairway and 4th in Scrambling from the rough.

"The way the courses have been set up the last couple of years, I feel I'll have more and more chances," says Mickelson, acknowledging Mike Davis' work, and with a bit of help from mother nature (recent heat means the rough isn't lush) everything looks in his favour.

Need another killer stat? Congressional has been redesigned three times (the most recent in 2009) by 'Open doctor' Rees Jones.

Mickelson's record on Rees Jones designs/redesigns shows four wins and five second places.

US Open crowds go wild for Lefty and he loves feeding off them. His highs aren't as regular these days but when he's 'on' there's no-one that can live with Mickelson and he showed that the week before the Masters when blowing the field away in Houston.

In the five years of Mike Davis set-ups, Mickelson can boast two seconds and a fourth so the 16/1 looks a great each-way bet and we'll devote a good chunk of the staking plan to a player who deserves it more than anybody.

This tournament has thrown up plenty of repeat winners in the last 25 years - Curtis Strange, Lee Janzen, Payne Stewart, Ernie Els, Retief Goosen and Tiger Woods - so I'm going to plump for two recent champions in Lucas Glover and Geoff Ogilvy.

Glover may wobble in regular Tour events but in big tournaments he seems to rise to the occasion.

As well as winning the US Open at Bethpage Black in 2009, he also made the top five in the PGA at Hazeltine two months later, was third in last year's Players Championship and just last month beat a world-class field to land the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow.

He putted like a demon at Quail Hollow and it's his improved play on the greens that makes him a real danger this week.

Glover is currently 4th in the PGA Tour's new Strokes Gained Putting stat having finished 127th in that category last year while he's hitting it 295.7 yards off the tee, putting him 27th in Driving Distance.

The stats purists might not like some of his other numbers but the unquantifiable ability to raise his game in the big tournaments trumps that in my book.

Glover has some good Congressional form in the bank too (5th in 2009 and 12th in 2007) so given his reputation for repeating good results at certain venues the 80/1 looks a fine bet all in all.

Ogilvy represents something of a risk due to his injury lay-offs.

But although he finished down the field at St Jude last week he did get four rounds in and says he's been able to put more work into his short game - ideal prep for a US Open - due to his shoulder problem.

Ogilvy, who says he's now fit, also tweeted that St Jude's Bermuda greens were a nightmare for him: "A few times I have worked it out, but generally speaking I find bermuda greens a complete mystery."

The return to bentgrass should cure that problem and allow Ogilvy's other strengths - high ball-flight, great short game (7th in Scrambling) - to thrive on a Congressional set-up that looks ideal for him.

The Aussie didn't necessarily see himself as a US Open type but with a win and a 9th in the Mike Davis era the tournament is now very much on his radar as one where he can continually flourish rather than just be a one-hit wonder.

Fourth at this year's Masters and 29th and 12th on his only previous Congressional starts the classy Ogilvy is well worth chancing each-way at 80s.

I much prefer to play these bigger each-way prices this year.

At the front of the market you can give obvious chances to Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy, Hunter Mahan, Matt Kuchar, Steve Stricker, Nick Watney and Dustin Johnson.

But at prices ranging from 12s to 30s you either think they can win or are pretty sure they can take a place.

With a grand total of no majors between them I can't get convinced about any of them winning. And the battle for each-way places looks so strong that I want a much healthier reward if I'm to successfully pick a player to finish in the top five/six.

So I'll go with a third 80/1 chance in Aaron Baddeley.

Now 30, the Aussie star was a standout as a young amateur and after a few difficult years looks to be in some of the best form of his career.

He was a winner on the PGA Tour at Riviera earlier this year and since then he's finished fourth in Houston and sixth at the Players Championship.

Badds gives it a good bash off the tee and has a wonderful short game so he absolutely fits the profile I'm looking for this week.

Interestingly, he does also have some fairly significant US Open history.

Four years ago he took a two-shot lead into the final round at Oakmont only to fold and shoot 80 in the final round - a trend now very much in fashion thanks to Johnson, Watney and McIlroy!

Back then he said: "As I look back at 2000 and 2004, my gamewasn't nowhere near close to this level that it is now. I drive the ball better now, my character, who I am as a person is so much stronger now because of those times and I feel that now that I have the patience and I have the tools to be able to play on the weekend and contend in the U.S. Open."

Four years on and he's matured even further so should definitely be on the radar as the next likely young overseas winner of a major.

As stated earlier, there are a bunch of majorless players who look likely top five contenders but their cramped prices put me off them.

So I'm going to bypass the crowded place market and go straight for the jugular on two 50/1 shots who I think can win.

For the life of me I can't work out why Bubba Watson is 20 to 25, or even 35 points higher than players with a far inferior winning record.

It can only be due to this lazy perception that Bubba isn't a US Open type.

But, in fact, my idea that the modern US Open suits big, strong hitters was partly shaped by Watson's performance in the 2007 event when, as a wide-eyed rookie, he got right in contention and finished fifth.

Bubba still hits it freakish distances but there is much more control now too. Just look at his stats: In 2007 he was 188th in Driving Accuracy and 68th in Greens In Reguation. In 2011 he's 92nd in DD and 1st in GIR.

That's helped him bag two PGA Tour wins in 2011 while, of course, he was also runner-up in last year's PGA Championship to further prove he has the credentials to win a major.

That second place came on a massive course so let's not overlook the elephant in the room. Bubba Watson on a long course is a dangerous animal.

He's finished fifth and 18th in his two US Open starts on America's East Coast and, like Mickelson, he's been invited to the nearby White House this week to meet fellow Lefty Barack Obama. This could just be a magical week for him.

Jason Day has finished 10th and second in the last two majors and was absolutely bouncing off the walls when joint runner-up at Augusta whereas others who contended that week looked completely flat after their near misses.

Day hits it big (19th in Driving Distance), is great from from bunkers (4th in Sand Saves), has a great short game (11th in Scrambling) and can putt the lights out (21st in Strokes Gained Putting).

His current form is 2nd, 9th, 6th, 31st, 5th and he could easily be the next young talent to make the big breakthrough at the very highest level.

Worried that this is his US Open debut? Don't be. He nearly conquered Augusta on his first try and, as many players keep repeating this week, Congressional is "right there in front of you". There are no inside in-the-know tricks.

Finally, the US Open isn't just about avoiding bogeys; it's about making birdies too. Looking at past winners, McDowell (2010) and Cabrera (2007) were tied second for birdies when they won while Glover (2009) was fourth for birdies during the week of his win. Mickelson (6th), Baddeley (8th), Watson (11th), Day (13th) Glover (18th) and Ogilvy (36th) are all high up in the birdie charts in 2011 so can rescue matters when the inevitable bogeys do appear.

Preview posted at 2130 BST on 14/06/2011.

[TopDog]

I backing

Francesco Molinari

Each/Way @ 100-1 [Ladbrokes]

Starting to play well again

[traeth]

gone for the recommendations from the telegraph plus my gut instinct bet of Quiros all e.w. 1,2,3,4,5,6

BET 1 Selection Alvaro Quiros @ 81.00

BET 2 Selection YE Yang @ 61.00

BET 3 Selection Ian Poulter @ 61.00

BET 4 Selection Martin Kaymer @ 30.00

BET 5 Selection Matt Kuchar @ 26.00

[Gavster]

After reading a few articles on the net, I've gone for Steve Stricker and Bubba Watson (both e/w), a mixture of big hitting and current form.



edit: I'm tempted by Quiros too - I picked him out last year for the open, due to his monster driving. Not confident on golf, so I may stick with what I have.

[Swooperman]

Into Van Pelt

[Cinny]

Don't know much about golf but for an interest...

Poulter @ 66/1
Snedeker @ 60/1
Mahan @ 22/1

[fegy]

kj choi 33/1 won the at&t at this course in 2007 and recently won the players should be in with a shout.

[Swooperman]

Took a bit of Aaron Baddelley as well, off Winrews article

[traeth]

Rory McIlroy -11 , 8 shots ahead after his mistake at the 18th , looks like we are chasing the e.w. spot , the way he's played he has to have a disaster to lose this one . I think he will have learned from his Masters escapade

McIlroy best prices @1.37 with betfair with Yang still out there , Yang @ 26 next best

Could it be worth a lay of McIlroy?

p.s. placed an e.w. bet on Mickleson this morning @ 34 , he's available at 51 now

[Swooperman]

Just turned back on after not watching the last hour, but Yang was 5 under at that point & only half way round. Also there seemed to be a bit of momentum on Luke Donald

Van Pelt 4 under today, +1 overall, similar day tomorrow & not out of a place spot.

Love to see Rory win, but does he know how to? Wouldnt be wanting a big wedge on him after the last time