US Masters 2009

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They've won six Green Jackets between them.

One won his last strokeplay event while the other has won two of his last three.
And if you just can't ignore the compelling evidence to back Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson this week, there's good news - their prices are nowhere near as off-putting as they might have been.

Woods, a winner at Bay Hill last time out, is 12/5 in Sky Bet's Enhanced Win Only market while Northern Open and Doral champ Mickelson has been pushed out to 9/1 from 13/2 on the back of a missed cut in Houston last week.

Tiger is actually as short as 6/4 with Victor Chandler - the same price as Sky Bet go about either Woods or Mickelson winning, so the bookies' opinions are split over just how big a threat Tiger is.

The trouble with ignoring the 'Big Two' in the outright market is that they're extremely likely to clog up two of the top five places, thus limiting the potential of an each-way punt.

Woods has been in the top five at Augusta seven times in the last nine years while Mickelson has finished there six times in his last eight visits.

So, after much brain racking, I've come to the conclusion that if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

To facilitate this I'm going to dedicate 12pts between the pair - 4pts on a Tiger win and 4pts e.w. on Mickelson.

If both bets cop, we make 18.6pts profit, if Mickelson wins it's a profit of 41pts across the two bets while even the two scenarios of Woods wins/Mickelson nowhere or Woods loses/Mickelson places also eke a profit.

Not a lot more needs to be said really in regards to this part of the staking plan. They are the world numbers one and two, they have fantastic records at Augusta and both have shown recent evidence that when they're in contention they're still the two players most likely to come through and win.

If it does come to a Woods v Mickelson showdown I'd still take Tiger over Phil but the staking plan is designed that way.

Woods sent out a huge message with his stunning last-hole birdie to win Bay Hill and, in my eyes, he's timed his comeback from injury absolutely perfectly to hit a peak at Augusta.

I'm well aware that plenty of punters will read this, roll their eyes that I'm backing the two favourites and demand something a bit more original.

Okay then.... how about a 160/1 shot.

The man in question is already a winner this year, he finished fourth at Bay Hill last time out and last year topped the US Tour's All-Around Ranking which must bode well for Augusta.

I'm talking about Pat Perez and I'm not quite sure why he's being written off.
Does he perhaps have an awful Augusta record? No, he made the cut there on his only previous visit and that (tied 43rd) was way back in 2003 when he was far less mature performer than he is now.

Okay, a few more visits to Augusta would be nice to have under his belt but when pundits roll the stat out that no first-timer has won since 1979, thus 'proving' that you need to learn your way around Augusta National over several years before being considered as a contender, it's forgotten that Luke Donald finished third on debut, Aussies Rod Pampling and Mark Hensby made the each-way places on their first visits while Paul Casey was sixth.

While that suggests an each-way punt on Rory McIlroy is perfectly reasonable it also shows that backing a player who hasn't played the Masters for six years isn't the handicap it might appear.

Perez hasn't played that many majors but he can boast a sixth at the 2005 USPGA and top 20s in the Open Championship and USPGA in 2007. With his confidence as high as it's ever been and his temperament vastly improved (he's 15th in Bounce Back - the % a player is over par on one hole and then under on the next one) , Perez is a long shot with plenty going for him.

Could he go toe to toe with Tiger? It's a big ask but others on his level have done it and at 160/1 a top five will reward us handsomely too.

For those who follow Pat Perez on Twitter, this was his latest entry before I wrote the preview: "In Augusta. Got in a few practice rounds already. Greens are solid, good weather is expected after Wed. and fired up for a big week. - P.P."

So after siding with three Americans thus far, what of the Europeans?

Paul Casey must be a contender given his record here and brilliant win in Houston last week but his price has been smashed into and he was rather handed victory in the play-off. A top five maybe but he's yet to show he can handle the final day of a major.

So at twice the price I like the look of current European number one Robert Karlsson.

The Swede was superb in the majors last year - finishing tied eighth in the Masters, tied fourth in the US Open and tied seventh in the Open Championship - a significant improvement on previous performances and a clear sign that at 39 he's a late developer hitting his peak.

That tied eighth followed on from his tied 30th on debut in 2007 so perhaps this is the major that will give him his best chance of landing a big one.

As a big hitter and demon putter he certainly has the attributes to thrive at Augusta and I can only see him going from strength to strength here after that morale-boosting eighth last year.

Twelve months ago the 6ft 5in Swede came off the final green and said excitedly: "It's been a fantastic week and I learned so much from last year and took that with me to this year so really, really happy with this."

If he continues on that path he can hopefully turn the eighth into a top five or, dare I say it, a win.

Karlsson warmed up nicely with a top 15 in Houston last week so get on the big Swede at 55/1.

In fact, get on another big Swede too.

Henrik Stenson has finished tied third (Open) and tied fourth (USPGA) in his last two majors and has made the top 20 on his last two trips to Augusta.

As well as his powerful driving and strong all-round game he has another weapon in his armoury - caddy Fanny Sunesson.

Sunesson, of course, was on the bag for Nick Faldo for two of his Masters wins and her former employee has actually tipped Stenson as a future Masters champion and when it comes to Augusta the three-time Green Jacket winner should know what he's talking about.

Stenson ranked first on the All-Around Stats when third in Houston last week and he's proven in the past that he's a player to follow when hot (a second place in Qatar followed by a third in Dubai the week after being a recent example).
With three top three finishes in his last four strokeplay starts he's in better form than you might think and the 45/1 at bet365 is well worth an each-way play.
Stenson and Karlsson battling it out down the stretch may not get the attention of Woods v Mickelson but if the top two are slightly off I'd be more than happy to see a Swedish shootout for the Green Jacket.

As a final play I have no qualms about getting on Sean O'Hair again despite him blowing a five-shot lead and costing us a 40/1 payout at Bay Hill on his last start.
The bottom line is that he lost a five-shot lead to just one man - probably the greatest player the game has ever seen.

So despite that last-hole defeat to Tiger, O'Hair shouldn't be viewed as damaged goods.

His second place in Arnie's event added to some excellent results on the West Coast Swing (where he usually flops) so the bottom line is that he's bang in form.
He also has some Augusta form.

Despite missing the cut on debut in 2006, he opened 72-71-71 last year to sit seventh with a round to go before fading to 14th.

Still it was all good experience in the bank

Despite playing in just 12 majors so far, O'Hair has already racked up four top 15s and missed the cut in just two so he appears to have the temperament to thrive at the highest level.

He felt the course was very scoreable last year despite others complaining it was too difficult so he's far from overawed by Augusta and believes he has a chance there.

With other names being well backed, his price has drifted to 66/1 and that should get our interest.

And that's that.

Numerous others have chances and I confess to an ante-post on Geoff Ogilvy at 33s. The 20/1 now available looks skinny though and having punted Woods and Mickelson I can't find a place for him.

If you don't fancy the Tiger/Phil part of the staking plan, perhapsadding Ogilvy to the other four names (Perez, Karlsson, Stenson and O'Hair) is the way to go. But I firmly believe that Woods and Mickelson will have a huge say in the outcome this year and just maybe, after two damp squibs, can reinvigorate the Masters with a thrilling back-nine duel.

SWEDES CAN CHALLENGE BIG TWO: Golf Betting News - US Masters Betting, Golf Betting News, Previews and Tips, Tiger Woods

[FC Basher]

Im coming in now
betting w/o Woods and Top rest of the world player
Trevor Immelman @ 46 - 1.5 pts ew and @ 21 1.5pts ew

Top rest of the world player
Rory Sabbatini @ 56 - 1.5 pts ew
bet365

3-balls
Choi/ Alvaro Quiros/ Perry 2.1
Stadler/ Sabbatini/ Dustin Johnson 2.1
Rose/ Stenson/ Cabrera 3.0
1pt doubles and trebles

[Beanie]

Everything crossed for you Bash - barring a late collapse from Cabs or Sabba should be a nice little payday here.

[FC Basher]

Originally Posted by FC Basher

Im coming in now
betting w/o Woods and Top rest of the world player
Trevor Immelman @ 46 - 1.5 pts ew and @ 21 1.5pts ew - fallen away

Top rest of the world player
Rory Sabbatini @ 56 - 1.5 pts ew - T6 -4 5 off the lead
bet365

3-balls
Choi/ Alvaro Quiros/ Perry 2.1
Stadler/ Sabbatini/ Dustin Johnson 2.1
Rose/ Stenson/ Cabrera 3.0
1pt doubles and trebles

Thanks Beanie,got all the 3 balls up,Perry was a straight forward shoot out with Choi,and I felt Perry was the better putter of the two,Sabbatini is a very hot putter and I was just hoping for a good round and he duly obliged,Cabrera was more of a gutshot,started with a 68 compared to Rose 74 and Stenson 71 I thought the bookies got it wrong with the 3.0 quoted

Ive seen Immelmen be really hot with putter and was hoping for a big round to put himself back in contention never happened.Sabbatini is a very chancey bet he can putt,but wether the rest of hes game holds out for another two rounds I aint sure.

[FC Basher]

Perry in the lead,closing holes,hope he does it for you traeth

[traeth]

Originally Posted by FC Basher

Perry in the lead,closing holes,hope he does it for you traeth

thanks basher

one of the reasons i'm in tonight , had a saver bet on tiger before today's round , he's gone now. getting close and i'm nervous , qiuite a difference in return between a winner and a place. i've watched a few golf tournies but i did not realise that it was so slow

my selection of perry was based mainly on similarity of his name to a family name , no golfing knowledge

great shot on the 16th , go on kenny

[traeth]

2 holes to go and 2 shots up , ends up in a playoff , Cabrera gets his ball behind a tree with his first play of hole , somehow it lands ok, noe perry fluffs it , that's betting for you

got an e.w. up though

[Punter]

Unlucky traeth, so near, after that shot @ the 16th he looked every bit the winner. You have to feel a little sorry for him really.

[Beanie]

Sore one there traeth - he did the same earlier this season when he won on the PGA Tour - played flawless golf for about 17 holes of the final round and then as soon as the finishing line came close his swing on his approach play completely broke down - got away with it that time but not last night - was in the middle of the fairway on 17 and both the playoff holes, and missed the green every time.

Took it like a gent though - hopefully he gets one but you'd have to doubt it now.

[ONEDUNME]

I fucking hate golf betting. I was green on every bloody player in the top 30 with the exception of Cabrera. I could have laid and got out at 1.4 when it went into a three way play off but with two players out of the three playing for me I decided to let it ride (and I would do the same thing if the situation happened again).

That's gambling for you.

[slick]

didnt bet on it but certainly enjoyed the closing play, thought Cabrera had fluffed it when he ended up behind that tree but lady luck was shining on him when the rebound from the following shot went smack bang in the mddle of the fairway. Nerves got to Perry as he should have had the event sewn up well b4 the playoff but thats where experience kicks in and probably why he's never won any Majors.
As a neutral i was shouting for the Argie only because the leaderboard was littered with Americans so its only fair to lend support to the underdog.