Buick Invitational - Betting Forum - Betting Tips

FC Basher · Tweet this Post! #1 (**permalink**) 03-02-2009, 08:47

Top 10 players playing in the Buick
Top 10s
FedExCup standings PGA TOUR Money List Official World Golf Ranking
Player (Rk.) Player (Rk.) Player (Rk.)
Pat Perez (4) Pat Perez (4) Padraig Harrington (3)
Charley Hoffman (6) Charley Hoffman (6) Phil Mickelson (4)
John Merrick (7) John Merrick (8)
Stock up
Charley Hoffman: Eight straight rounds of 69 or better and four straight finishes in the top 20 have Hoffman moving onto the radar. He's a good ballstriker in general and one of the TOUR's longest hitters, and if he can figure out the putter, he's going to get wins. Hoffman is a player who can get streaky good, too.
Rory Sabbatini: He's going to win, maybe as soon as this week at Torrey Pines. First, he generally plays pretty well in the first few months of the season. Second, he was quietly moving up the leaderboard Sunday until he overcooked his tee shot at 17 and made triple bogey. Still, he finished 12th for the second straight week.
Rory McIlroy: The 19-year-old from Northern Ireland nearly gave away the Dubai Desert Classic before hanging on by a stroke, but that's almost to be expected from a teenager closing in on his first win. Everyone absolutely loves this kid. And why not -- he moved up to 15th in the world. Watch for him at the Masters in April.
Stock down
Phil Mickelson: He shot 76-73 and missed the cut badly at an event he's owned. That's not the start we expected from Lefty. He put his usual positive spin on it, saying his swing, while rusty, was really close. Still, we've never seen this kind of start from him.
Camilo Villegas: Has shot just two rounds better than 71 in his first two starts of '09. There are a lot of expectations for the young Colombian, but I wonder if some swing issues are being exposed a little bit and/or if the weight of those expectations is weighing on his solid putting stroke.
J.B. Holmes: He won two of the previous three FBR Opens but could only manage 70-76 before missing the cut. That's his second consecutive MC, and he finished near the bottom of the limited-field Mercedes-Benz Championship in the season opener. Not a good start for the big hitter from Kentucky. pga.com
Betting - stanjames
Tournament Outright
Buick Invitation Outright 05 Feb 16:00

Live on SETANTA GOLFSETANTA SP1Premiere

EW:1/4 1,2,3,4,5
Selection Price
Mickelson, Phil 11/1
Harrington, Padraig 12/1
Donald, Luke 16/1
Sabbatini, Rory 20/1
Villegas, Camilo 20/1
Goosen, Retief 22/1
Love, Davis 25/1
Howell, Charles 28/1
Baddeley, Aaron 33/1
Mahan, Hunter 33/1
Pettersson, Carl 33/1
Hoffman, Charley 40/1
Matteson, Troy 40/1
Perez, Pat 40/1
Imada, Ryuji 45/1
Pampling, Rod 50/1
Senden, John 50/1
Sutherland, Kevin 50/1
Appleby, Stuart 60/1
Curtis, Ben 66/1
Green, Nathan 66/1
Marino, Steve 66/1
Oberholser, Arron 66/1
Snedeker, Brandt 66/1
Streelman, Kevin 66/1
Watney, Nick 66/1
Watson, Bubba 66/1
Wi, Charlie 66/1
Goggin, Matthew 66/1
Glover, Lucas 80/1
Haas, Bill 80/1
Merrick, John 80/1
Moore, Ryan 80/1
Piercy, Scott 80/1
Simpson, Webb 80/1
Bryant, Bart 100/1
Crane, Ben 100/1
Estes, Bob 100/1
Holmes, J-B 100/1
Jacobson, Fredrik 100/1
Jobe, Brandt 100/1
Johnson, Dustin 100/1
Kresge, Cliff 100/1
Mcneill, George 100/1
Mclachlin, Parker 100/1
Pernice, Tom 100/1
Allan, Steve 125/1
Austin, Woody 125/1
Baird, Briny 125/1
Durant, Joe 125/1
Garrigus, Robert 125/1
Hart, Dudley 125/1
Kaye, Jonathan 125/1
Mallinger, John 125/1
Quinney, Jeff 125/1
Reavie, Chez 125/1
Stroud, Chris 125/1
Henry, J J 125/1
Atwal, Arjun 150/1
Beem, Rich 150/1
Couples, Fred 150/1
Goydos, Paul 150/1
Huston, John 150/1
Leishman, Marc 150/1
Rollins, John 150/1
Stadler, Kevin 150/1
Tway, Bob 150/1
Sterling, Scott 150/1
Frazar, Harrison 175/1
Jones, Matt 175/1
Klauk, Jeff 175/1
Mccarron, Scott 175/1
Nitties, James 175/1
Overton, Jeff 175/1
Quigley, Brett 175/1
Thompson, Nicholas 175/1
Wilson, Dean 175/1
Wittenberg, Casey 175/1
Ridings, Tag 175/1

Squire · Tweet this Post! #2 (**permalink**) 03-02-2009, 19:47

Hi Basher. New to the forum. Excellent write-up.

I do enjoy a bet on the Golf, however I don't always trust my own judgement

With Lefty being my favourite player, I've blindly backed him in the past without success. But this particular tournament looks fascinating. I'll personally be backing Retief e/w, although I may add further selections leading up to the tournament.

I also tend to follow Jeremy Chapman's choices in the RP which has held me in good stead, although I'll be sure to see how your selections fare too.

Good luck

**Beanie** · Tweet this Post! #3 (**permalink**) 03-02-2009, 22:41

Welcome Squire

With no Euro Tour event this week all focus firmly on the PGA, and I think it's a fascinating one.

Based on current form I couldn't make a case for any of the top 5 at the current prices - you'd have to double some of them to get me interested.

I'd agree that of the favs, Retief and DLIII are maybe the best of the bunch - but with a relatively weak top end my focus will be firmly on the bigger prices. Will do the proper research tomorrow though.

**Bigkegman** · Tweet this Post! #4 (**permalink**) 03-02-2009, 22:59

Quote:

Charley Hoffman: Eight straight rounds of 69 or better and four straight finishes in the top 20 have Hoffman moving onto the radar. He's a good ballstriker in general and one of the TOUR's longest hitters, and if he can figure out the putter, he's going to get wins. Hoffman is a player who can get streaky good, too.

that'll do for me for a bit of interest

FC Basher · Tweet this Post! #5 (**permalink**) 04-02-2009, 12:38

Welcome to the forum Squire, I would stick to following Roger Chapman he has years of experience of golf betting and that obviously counts for alot,although I dont know what hes record is.Im trying to be modest here but we did have Drysdale @33's as top Gb & Ire player in the Joburg Open

Beanies outlook on tournies is always worth a read,and he runs an excellant in-running thread which he posts in TDP memebers records forum,Topdog to has some good picks in the match ups markets,and others do pop their heads,especially for the big events.

On lefty what a player and some of the shots he pulls off is why we watch golf,but what it comes to getting over the finish line he really lacks imho,what event what is he threw away when he was going hammer and tong with Singh and Westwood only to bogey 3 of the last 4 holes and hand it to Singh who couldnt putt and at one stage hit if I remember right a 10 footer 6 foot past.Knowing hes decision making is truly horrendous at times,the other pros when going toe toe with him in the closing stages must feel hes going to make errors of judgement,I keep saying to myself hes going to calm down,when he went with Butch Harmon I thought thats it,but that didnt last and they split I think.I saw him hit 9 Iron an amazing to a 180 yrd par 3 in one event,obviously had to belt it,it did the job,but why not a smooth 8 or even 7,I think that just about somes up hes mindset.

Goosen - No win in three years and debut at this event,against a better form and more experienced Buick players,seems chancy.
Mickleson - Talent yes,good betting propostion no (at the moment) shocking start in the FBR,although who seriously he took that event im not sure,the course will suit,but 2 wins last season in the Crown Plaza and Northern Trust is hardly a big boast of a player of such stature,chancy.
Sabbatini - Is the pick,only because he can shoot low here and did finish 3rd last season blowing hes chance when hitting 75 in the second round but finished very strongly,stats wise hes very average,but with question marks on all the field,1pt ew
Troy Matteson - Is my dark horse he is a player that I think is on the up,11th in this event last year,Drives the ball well with accuracy greens in regulations was 32nd last season,but thats were it ends above 1.8 putting average isnt great,but as I said he is a player on the up imho.hes price is only 50s with the bookies who have latched on and are taking no chances he would have been at least triple or quadruple that price last season.1pt ew.

Squire · Tweet this Post! #6 (**permalink**) 04-02-2009, 13:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by FC Basher

Welcome to the forum Squire, I would stick to following Roger Chapman he has years of experience of golf betting and that obviously counts for alot,although I dont know what hes record is.Im trying to be modest here but we did have Drysdale @33's as top Gb & Ire player in the Joburg Open

Beanies outlook on tournies is always worth a read,and he runs an excellant in-running thread which he posts in TDP memebers records forum,Topdog to has some good picks in the match ups markets,and others do pop their heads,especially for the big events.

On lefty what a player and some of the shots he pulls off is why we watch golf,but what it comes to getting over the finish line he really lacks imho,what event what is he threw away when he was going hammer and tong with Singh and Westwood only to bogey 3 of the last 4 holes and hand it to Singh who couldnt putt and at one stage hit if I remember right a 10 footer 6 foot past.Knowing hes decision making is truly horrendous at times,the other pros when going toe toe with him in the closing stages must feel hes going to make errors of judgement,I keep saying to myself hes going to calm down,when he went with Butch Harmon I thought thats it,but that didnt last and they split I think.I saw him hit 9 Iron an amazing to a 180 yrd par 3 in one event,obviously had to belt it,it did the job,but why not a smooth 8 or even 7,I think that just about somes up hes mindset.

Goosen - No win in three years and debut at this event,against a better form and more experienced Buick players,seems chancy.
Mickleson - Talent yes,good betting propostion no (at the moment) shocking start in the FBR,although who seriously he took that event im not sure,the course will suit,but 2 wins last season in the Crown Plaza and Northern Trust is hardly a big boast of a player of such stature,chancy.
Sabbatini - Is the pick,only because he can shoot low here and did finish 3rd last season blowing hes chance when hitting 75 in the second round but finished very strongly,stats wise hes very average,but with question marks on all the field,1pt ew
Troy MattesonIs my dark horse he is a player that I think is on the up,11th in this event last year,Drives the ball well with accuracy greens in regulations was 32nd last season,but thats were it ends above 1.8 putting average isnt great,but as I said he is a player on the up imho.hes price is only 50s the the bookies are taking no chances he would have been at least triple or quadruple that price last season.1pt ew.

Thanks Basher.

I've found watching Mickelson totally inspiring

over the years. But also so frustrating.

I won't back him this week although I'll always cheer him on.

Good luck anyways and lets hope we win a few quid.

**Beanie** · Tweet this Post! #7 (**permalink**) 04-02-2009, 18:54

Conditions look tricky for the first few days, which for me is another reason to give the shorties a miss(altho on second look I do like the look of Sabba bash, he just needs to try and rid himself of the occasional shocker as most of his rounds seem to be spoilt by a double or treble bogey at the moment, in amongst 17 holes of good golf).

I like Imada and Davis Love as well, but the prices are just a little stingy for me, and I think we'll see a weak top of the leaderboard for a while. The market seems to be far too keen to latch on to any sort of course form, so if looking at the shorter prices I'd be far more inclined to go for those that are based on strong recent form, rather than strong course form.

I've had a few bets on some lively outsiders who have the mentality to win, but will wait for more in running.

Senden @ 60
Glover @ 120
Atwal @ 350
Overton @ 350
Nich Thompson @ 380
Frazar @ 470

Squire · Tweet this Post! #8 (**permalink**) 04-02-2009, 19:22

For those interested, Jeremy Chapman's selections were follows;

L Donald, 1.5pts each-way 20-1, Blue Sq, Lads, Power
P Harrington, 1.5pts win, 1pt place 13-1, Totesport
R Sabbatini, 1pt each-way 22-1, Hills, Skybet
C Howell, 0.75pt each-way 28-1, general
J Merrick, 0.5pt each-way 80-1, Bluesq, Boyles, S James