Volvo Masters

[Beanie]

Played at Valderrama this week with the top 60 from the European Order of Merit fighting it out for the big top prize.

Getting an early start this week, hoping to get some decent prices about some of the contenders with course form and strong recent showings, before all the usual suspects(bettingzone for one who have been in good form all season) tip them up and have their prices trimmed right in.

The Course Form

A lot of the big contenders have superb records round here - Garcia in particular with 7th in 03 and 2nds in 04, 05 and 06. However, his win at the weekend was his first on the European Tour since 2005 and in a field of this quality I'd have far too many concers to go near him at below 6/1 which he is on first show.

Despite his Volvo win not coming on this track, Harrington still has a good record at Valderamma - 19th in 2003 and 2004, 10th in 2005, 2nd in 2006 and 4th in 2007.

Ian Poulter has a rare start in Europe(or rare in terms of the last two months anyway) and can also boast a superb record here, going 9th, 1st, 10th, 9th and 8th over the past 5 years.

Others like Westwood and Casey also have reasonable records here, but at the prices don't hold much attraction given the strength of the others mentioned above.

Looking beyond the major contenders, Simon Dyson and Soren Kjeldsen both played superbly last year to get 2nd, and are worth a second look, Peter Hanson has had a handful of strong showings, the pick being a 4th place in 2004, and David Lynn's most recent Valderamma outing was 9th in 2006.

The Recent Form

Karlsson is 2nd in the betting, and despite being on scintillating recent form, his lack of course form counts him out at the price for me. As noted, Garcia has yet to convince of a consistent ability as a closer and so at the price of under 6/1 must be avoided imo.

Sticking with those above, Westwood has had a break recently and looked a little jaded after the Ryder Cup, possibly down to the tonsillitiis he suffered not long before. Casey has never quite recaptured his best form of the last few years and so despite a ood showing at the Castello masters, I cant back him here without a good course record to back the bet up.

Kjeldsen, Dyson, Hanson and Lynn all finished comfortably inside the top 10 last week and at what are still healthy prices I see no reason to avoid them this week. All look confident in their game, and while unlikely to be able to win in contention in a field like this, they are certainly worth a punt to land the place money.

Poulter and Harrington look the outstanding punts to me though - they have both had very good seasons, Harrington winning the 2 majors and Poulter starring for Europe in the Ryder Cup. Harrington didnt look at his best in the Alfred Dunhill, but after a short break should be well recovered here. Poulter has gone on to perform well in Asia after hs outstanding showings at the RC, and will too have a couple of points to prove back on European soil.

Of other shorter prices, those without course form look like a stab in the dark at this stagge, Stenson is badly out of form, and Jimenez looks a little too inconsistent to hold 4 good rounds together at the moment.

Jeev Milka Singh is perhaps worth another look - he won here in 2006 and returned to form last week with a strong showing at the Castello Masters - he triple bogied his first hole on Thursday, but played superb golf after that, putting together 3 sub 70 rounds and finishing just outside the top 10.

Current OOM Situation

Karlsson currently leads by 300,000 euros from Harrington, 400,000 from Westwood and 600,000 from Jimenez, the others cant catch the leader.

Other

The wind can often be a big factor at Valderamma and for this reason Im even more confident in the selections. Poulter and Harrington are probably the two strongest wind players on the European Tour(have a peek at others like McDowell if the wind does blow.) The finishing positions in the open suggest all you need to know on that front, and so blustery conditions could increase their edge significantly.

Selections

7 to follow then at a range of prices.

Win Market

4pts Harrington @ 13/1 with Betfair
3pts Poulter @ 16/1 with Paddy Power
1pt Milka Singh @ 40/1 with BlueSq(doubt the price will last)
1pt Dyson @ 40/1 with BlueSq
1pt Hanson @ 59/1 with Betfair
1pt Kjeldsen @ 59/1 with Betfair
0.5pts Lynn @ 109/1 with Betfair

Place Market

No liquidity on the Betfair top 10 market yet, which is where you'll get best value for money on the place market. Will update later.

[Beanie]

As expected Bettingzone have similar thoughts and tip up Harrington and Kjeldsen - Harrington trimmed into 11/1 and Kjeldsen into 50s at best

Of the other prices - Jeev into 33/1 at best, Dyson 40/1 and Hanson 45/1.

[Beanie]

Will stick with the Betfair place Market(top 10) for these - field of just 60(infact I think we're down to 57 due to a few withdrawals) so not looking for such fancy prices as in a usual field.

Place Market

4pts Poulter Top 10 @ 2.48
2pts Kjeldsen Top 10 @ 4.10
2pts Hanson Top 10 @ 4.00
2pts Dyson Top 10 @ 4.20
1pt Lynn Top 10 @ 7.00

Don't fancy the prices on Harrington or Singh for Top 10 so not having those two.

Be lucky

[Chief77]

Justin Rose looks a bit big at 25 considering he's the defending champ. I'll back him!
Jiminez for a top 5 finish @4.0
Lay Karlsson for a top 10 finish @1.9. He doesn't generally do well here and has never had a top 10 finish.

Verdict:
Rose @27
Jiminez Top 5 @4.0
Lay Karlsson Top 10 @1.9

[Chief77]

I've found what looks to be a great bet @2.06.

Alvaro Quiros is in great form recently and even better he lives a few minutes from the course and does all his practice here!
I'm gonna take him to beat an out of form Paul McGinley this morning in a two ball. Available @2.06 on Betfair. Looks a great price.

McGinleys last 3 finishes: 52nd, 124th, 75th.
Quiros last 3 finishes: 4th, 1st, 13th.

Verdict:
Quiros to bt McGinley in 1st rd 2 ball @2.06

[rcgills]

Even better Chief, Paddy Power have Quiros (+1 shot) @ 2.25 I've had a go on that

Edit - Sorry, it was probably a bit late to point that out by then, two minutes before it started. Still, fingers crossed Chief

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by rcgills

Even better Chief, Paddy Power have Quiros (+1 shot) @ 2.25 I've had a go on that

Edit - Sorry, it was probably a bit late to point that out by then, two minutes before it started. Still, fingers crossed Chief

Bugger, never even looked at Paddy Power! Ah well as long as he wins I shan't complain. Good luck to us rcgills!

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by Chief77

Verdict:
Quiros to bt McGinley in 1st rd 2 ball @2.06[/B]

Terrible terrible terrible! Sorry rcgills, you have my full permission to retract that nomination thingy.

McGinley as predicted had a stinker of a round, posting just 1 birdie all day along with four bogeys and a double to end up +5. Quiros managed 4 birdies but along with that he hit three bogeys and FOUR DOUBLE BOGEYS! Unreal.

Only bright spot so far is Karlsson is having a shitty round and my top 10 lay looks ok at the moment.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Chief77

Terrible terrible terrible! Sorry rcgills, you have my full permission to retract that nomination thingy.

McGinley as predicted had a stinker of a round, posting just 1 birdie all day along with four bogeys and a double to end up +5. Quiros managed 4 birdies but along with that he hit three bogeys and FOUR DOUBLE BOGEYS! Unreal.

No, don't worry about it Chief. Your reasoning was sound (sound enough to tempt me to bet on a sport I know sod all about), even if Quiros didn't perform for whatever reason.

[Beanie]

Aye a good price I thought, just all down to what kind of day Quiros had. He hits it so long off the tee that his driving accuracy is very erratic, and the course penalised missed fairways a lot today - can only assume he missed a lot.

Pretty good day here:

Kjeldsen -6 in 1st(clear by 3 - stunning round) now trading at 4.70
Lynn -2 in tied 3rd now trading at 32.00
Dyson +1 in tied 10th now trading at 44.00
Hanson +1 in tied 10th now trading at 44.00

The others had a bad day - Jeev limped home at +3 after losing 5 shots in 6 holes, Poulter got nothing going at +5 having no birdies in his round, exactly the same for Harrington. These 3 aren't out of it yet but very poor rounds from the shorter prices and very good from the longer ones.

[bettorlogic-dot-com]

I feel we have to begin by isolating the top-10 ranked players in the field and those ranked in the top 12 for current form. If we also eliminate the top-two ranked players, Sergio and Pad (as no top-two ranked player has ever won this event), we are left with the following: Robert Karlsson (12/1), Lee Westwood (16/1), Henrik Stenson (45/1 with totesport) and Graeme McDowell (40/1). Sergio seems sure to be in the frame and he is suddenly able to get over the win line these days. Yet I feel he will just come up short again.

Karlsson seems a reasonable first choice here. He is the most consistent player on tour and the lure of the Vardon Trophy has not often proved a hindrance to a good performance at Valderrama. Neither Stenson nor McDowell has done well when they've played in Spain or Portugal this year, and that does count again them. We will look beyond this pair on this occasion. Westwood has been seventh here the last three years and there is little to deter us from backing him. He joins Karlsson on our shortlist.

We also like the chances of Ian Poulter (16/1). The 2004 winner went from the Ryder Cup at Valhalla to Korea where he came second in the Korean Open, just ahead of Anthony Kim. He has a very consistent recent record here and although his current form is only good enough for 20th, he fulfils pretty much every criterion we are looking for. As the top guns have dominated this tournament historically I feel justified in picking three of the bigger names in the market.

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Win Market

4pts Harrington @ 13/1 with Betfair
3pts Poulter @ 16/1 with Paddy Power
1pt Milka Singh @ 40/1 with BlueSq(doubt the price will last)
1pt Dyson @ 40/1 with BlueSq
1pt Hanson @ 59/1 with Betfair
1pt Kjeldsen @ 59/1 with Betfair
0.5pts Lynn @ 109/1 with Betfair

Place Market

4pts Poulter Top 10 @ 2.48
2pts Kjeldsen Top 10 @ 4.10
2pts Hanson Top 10 @ 4.00
2pts Dyson Top 10 @ 4.20
1pt Lynn Top 10 @ 7.00

Kjeldsen wins by 2 Lynn also lands the top 10 place money with 6th, Hanson really should have too, but limped home in 14th.

22.5pts staked, 72.77pts returned after comm.

[FC Basher]

Top hole Beanie