US Open - Winner

[FC Basher]

1. US Open 2008 Book Closes 12 Jun 15:00
   Each-way 1/4 1-2-3-4-5
   Tiger Woods 3.50 Bet
   Phil Mickelson 8.50 Bet
   Sergio Garcia 21.00 Bet
   Padraig Harrington 23.00 Bet
   Vijay Singh 26.00 Bet
   Jim Furyk 31.00 Bet
   Geoff Ogilvy 34.00 Bet
   Luke Donald 34.00 Bet
   Stewart Cink 41.00 Bet
   Mike Weir 41.00 Bet
   Justin Rose 41.00 Bet
   Trevor Immelman 41.00 Bet
   Adam Scott 41.00 Bet
   Ernie Els 46.00 Bet
   Retief Goosen 46.00 Bet
   Justin Leonard 61.00 Bet
   Boo Weekley 61.00 Bet
   Anthony Kim 67.00 Bet
   Stephen Ames 67.00 Bet
   Tim Clark 67.00 Bet
   Robert Allenby 71.00 Bet
   K.J. Choi 71.00 Bet
   Lee Westwood 76.00 Bet
   Henrik Stenson 81.00 Bet
   Robert Karlsson 76.00 Bet
   Aaron Baddeley 81.00 Bet
   Ryuji Imada 81.00 Bet
   Zach Johnson 91.00 Bet
   Andres Romero 91.00 Bet
   Paul Casey 91.00 Bet
   Stuart Appleby 101.00 Bet
   Rory Sabbatini 101.00 Bet
   David Toms 101.00 Bet
   Ben Crane 111.00 Bet
   Angel Cabrera 101.00 Bet
   Scott Verplank 101.00 Bet
   Rod Pampling 101.00 Bet
   Steve Stricker 111.00 Bet
   Sean O'Hair 111.00 Bet
   Ian Poulter 111.00 Bet
   Jeff Quinney 111.00 Bet
   Brandt Snedeker 111.00 Bet
   Martin Kaymer 126.00 Bet
   Miguel A. Jimenez 126.00 Bet
   Pat Perez 126.00 Bet
   Bart Bryant 126.00 Bet
   Heath Slocum 126.00 Bet
   Camilo Villegas 126.00 Bet
   J.B. Holmes 126.00 Bet
   Jerry Kelly 126.00 Bet
   Matthew Goggin 126.00 Bet
   Charles Howell 141.00 Bet
   Matt Kuchar 141.00 Bet
   Nick Dougherty 141.00 Bet
   Niclas Fasth 151.00 Bet
   Woody Austin 151.00 Bet
   Chad Campbell 151.00 Bet
   Hunter Mahan 151.00 Bet
   Carl Pettersson 151.00 Bet
   Bubba Watson 176.00 Bet
   Dean Wilson 176.00 Bet
   Jason Bohn 176.00 Bet
   Fredrik Jacobson 176.00 Bet
   Davis Love 176.00 Bet
   Brett Quigley 176.00 Bet
   Nick Watney 176.00 Bet
   Jonathan Byrd 201.00 Bet
   Colin Montgomerie 201.00 Bet
   Jesper Parnevik 201.00 Bet
   John Rollins 201.00 Bet
   Oliver Wilson 201.00 Bet
   Steve Flesch 201.00 Bet
   Soren Hansen 201.00 Bet
   Steve Marino 226.00 Bet
   Daniel Chopra 226.00 Bet
   Brett Wetterich 226.00 Bet
   Ross Fisher 226.00 Bet
   John Mallinger 226.00 Bet
   Mark Calcavecchia 251.00 Bet
   Richard Sterne 251.00 Bet
   D.J. Trahan 251.00 Bet
   Thomas Levet 251.00 Bet
   Johan Edfors 251.00 Bet
   Shingo Katayama 251.00 Bet
   Ben Curtis 251.00 Bet
   Rocco Mediate 276.00 Bet
   Joe Ogilvie 301.00 Bet
   John Merrick 351.00 Bet
   Craig Parry 401.00 Bet
   Michael Letzig 401.00 Bet
   Phillip Archer 401.00 Bet
   Lee Janzen 401.00 Bet
   Ross McGowan 401.00 Bet
   Rich Beem 401.00 Bet
   Alastair Forsyth 401.00 Bet
   Brandt Jobe 401.00 Bet
   Craig Barlow

[Snodser]

Cink / Rose / Leonard / Westwood / Jimenez / Casey / Johnson / Kim & of course Harry . All ew.

GL

[Snodser]

Forgot Lefty

[mrmuzeman]

Im going for Woods. I know its his first tourny back since his op and he hasnt played in a comp for 2 months. I wouldnt bother if his price was his usual sub 2/1 but at 7/2 I have to take an interest. Theres just no better course for him to come back to than Torrey Pines he absolutely loves it there.

Past 10 years results - Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines

Buick Invitational^[1]

• 2008 Tiger Woods
• 2007 Tiger Woods
• 2006 Tiger Woods (playoff)
• 2005 Tiger Woods
• 2004 John Daly (playoff)
• 2003 Tiger Woods
• 2002 José María Olazábal
• 2001 Phil Mickelson
• 2000 Phil Mickelson
• 1999 Tiger Woods

[kompressaur]

When Tiger Woods holed out for an eight-shot win at Torrey Pines in January, the idea of him not winning the US Open at the same venue five months later seemed almost absurd.

That was Tiger's fourth successive win in the Buick Invitational - his sixth in all - and continued a love affair with Torrey Pines dating back to his junior days.

But with Tiger missing in action for eight-and-a-half weeks after knee surgery, the bookies are daring to take him on. An even money shot at one stage, Woods is now 7/2.

Of course, Woods has unrivalled powers of recovery and has come back from injury before and won straight off the bat.

But trying to do it at a US Open is surely a massive ask.

I may well end up kicking myself if Tiger powers to a third US Open win on Sunday but you can only kick yourself so hard for missing out on a 7/2 shot. For me, the value lies elsewhere.

It appears that Europe hold a particularly strong hand this year with Sergio Garcia, Padraig Harrington, Luke Donald, Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson all showing impressive form in recent weeks. Donald is also a two-time runner-up at the California venue.

But there's no getting away from the fact that Europe's record in the US Open is dreadful - no winner since Tony Jacklin since 1970 - and that has to cast doubt over players who, due to their familiarity, are short enough in the betting anyway.

No, this is a tournament which has seen a power shift towards the International players and, more specifically, those who grew up in the southern hemisphere.

Retief Goosen (2004), Michael Campbell (2005), Geoff Ogilvy (2006) and Angel Cabrera (2007) are the quartet who have kept the trophy out of American hands since Jim Furyk's victory in 2003 and it's worth considering what they have in common.

Well, as mentioned, they were all raised in the southern hemisphere and that meant learning their trade in warm winds, on hard, fast courses with quick greens - all trademarks of the US Open.

Secondly, they also give it a decent lash off the tee.

There's a myth that the US Open is suited for short, straight hitters who keep the ball in play but all four always rate higher in Driving Distance than they do in Driving Accuracy.

I now strongly believe that power off the tee is a huge plus point for a US Open contender. And, if you disagree, how on earth can you explain wild-hitting Bubba Watson's top five finish at Oakmont last year?

At 7,643 yards off the back tees, the stunning cliff-top Torrey Pines will be the longest US Open course ever played and the value of length may actually be increasing. Mike Davis, who now controls course set-ups in US Opens, has a very different take than some of his predecessors, saying: "We don't want to penalise the long-ball hitter. If they can hit a ball 340 yards, good for them."

It means, the fairways this week will be similar to what they are in the Buick Invitational. That means 29-34 yards wide rather than the 24 of previous years.

Everyone will miss fairways of course but it's a lot easy to advance the ball from gnarly rough with a short club in your hand and that helps explain why longer hitters have an advantage.

Goosen, Campbell, Ogilvy and Cabrera had also displayed a previous ability to handle a US Open track.

Goosen, of course, had won it in 2001 and prior to that had been 12th at Pebble Beach in 2001 alongside Campbell. Ogilvy had finished 28th in his second US Open before winning it the following year while Cabrera had made all seven cuts before his triumph last year, with a best of seventh in 2001 and just one finish worse than 37th.

A slightly more esoteric view was that all four had a reputation for being extremely naturally talented and perhaps hadn't fulfilled their potential until winning the US Open.

One other factor we can consider this year is course form although it has to be remembered that Torrey Pines will play very differently in June to how it does in the often damp conditions of early January.

So, throwing it all together, we're looking for a naturally talented big hitter from the southern hemisphere who has shown an ability to play well in a US Open and also at Torrey Pines.

Those filters throw up these four names - Stuart Appleby, Robert Allenby, Trevor Immelman and Camilo Villegas.

Hmmm. The strength of a employing a system is also its weakness. While it picks up players you might have overlooked, it also selects those who you really don't want to include.

However, I'll pretty much stick to what it says.

Appleby seems the best fit.

For starters he's 48th in Driving Distance (that's in the top 25%), has finished 10th in a West Coast US Open (Olympic Club 1998) and was 26th in last year's US Open.

Whisper it, but the US Masters has played more like a US Open in the last couple of years and, significantly, Appleby has put in his best two performances - seventh and 14th.

Form-wise the Aussie has been in good nick for most of the year. He started the campaign with four top 10s and his last three finishes are 15th at the Players Championship plus top 25s at Memorial and St Jude in the last two weeks.

One of those early-season top 10s came at Torrey Pines when he finished eighth and that continued his improved form at the course after a 24th the previous year and a 40th before that. It's a course he knows very well.

Add in the fact that he's an eight-time US Tour winner but still desperate for a Major and the 100/1 makes him the headline tip.

Allenby is an even bigger enigma and, for want of a better phrase, does my head in.

However, he does seem to tick plenty of boxes.

He hits it long and straight (17th in Total Driving), is ranked number one in Greens In Regulation and goes into the tournament on the back of a play-off loss at the St. Jude Classic.

The Aussie isn't afraid to big himself up but does seem particularly pleased with the way he's playing going into Torrey Pines.

Speaking after his play-off loss, Allenby said: "I'm hitting the ball the best I've ever hit it, and you can see my stats, they tell you that. I'm hitting the ball very straight off the tee, and I'm hitting my irons as good as I've ever hit them. My short game is good. My putting is good. I'm hitting a lot of greens and hitting a lot of shots close."

Allenby was ninth at Torrey Pines in 2007 and, looking ahead to this week, said: "I know I'm playing well enough to play well there, and I like the golf course in San Diego there, Torrey Pines."

Finally, he also has a decent US Open pedigree with a seventh at Shinnecock in 2004, a 12th at Bethpage in 2002 and a 16th at Winged Foot in 2006.

Part of me wants to ignore all that but I shall go ahead and back him each-way at 80/1.

Immelman hasn't actually played in the Buick Invitational but has happy memories of Torrey Pines after winning the world junior championships there in 1994 (Ernie Els won it in 1984) and also the 1998 US Public Links. It makes you wonder why he hasn't played the Buick.

But the 100/1, which would have been plenty enough to trigger a bet, has crashed to 40/1 after his tied second in Memphis on Sunday and, as I just can't see him winning back-to-back Majors, the each-way element starts to look too skinny.

I'll pass him by.

Villegas does get the thumbs up though, despite appearing to be far too young and wild to make an impact in a US Open (once again I refer the jury to Bubba Watson's fifth place last year).

The Colombian missed the cut in his very first US Open in 2004 (his first professional tournament) but he made the weekend when 59th at Winged Foot and last year he closed with an impressive 71 to finish tied 26th at Oakmont.

Villegas can also boast a third place in the Players Championship and has also placed in the other big Florida events so he can thrive in elite company on tough courses.

Also 23rd in last year's USPGA, Villegas finished an encouraging 13th in January's Buick Invitational to suggest that he could go well in the US Open there.

His hopes have been further raised by recent good performances which show a third at Sugarloaf two starts ago and a tied 18th in Memphis on Sunday.

Fifth in the US Tour's All-Around ranking, Villegas clearly has plenty of game and he's a better bet than his dismissive odds of 150/1 suggest.

Now, I'll have to shift the goalposts a little to get the next two players into the staking plan.

Rory Sabbatini grew up in the southern hemisphere, has bags of natural talent, hits ithard off the tee and boasts an impressive record at Torrey Pines.

As for the negatives, he seems to have lost his form this year and has a shocking US Open record.

Let's address those two problem points first.

Form-wise, it looks bad - 70-MC-MC-67-27-MC. But let's not forget that he kicked off his season with a second and a third and last year he racked up a win and five other top threes.

One of those - a tied second - came at Augusta where the winning score was over par so perhaps he can do well on tough Major courses.

Although he's never played any sort of part in a US Open, he has at least made two of the last three cuts and Sabbatini reckons his current poor form is a very temporary state of affairs - a result of a few bad habits creeping in after a bout of illness.

Speaking at Wachovia, Sabbatini claimed: "Everything is right there, it's just a matter of it all clicking."

It didn't quite work out that way after a poor weekend but his 27th at Sawgrass the following week suggests his game may be coming round.

Torrey Pines is certainly a place where he can really hit the groove again. He was third there this year and also finished fifth in 2002 and 16th in 2006.

We're taking a bit of a leap of faith but the 150/1 could look a monster price if Sabbatini gets it all together.

Aaron Baddeley very nearly passes all my checks but maybe doesn't quite hit it far enough.

Still, he's not exactly short off the tee and has been in the top 26 for Driving Distance in his last three events.

The Aussie won his home Open as an amateur before defending it as a pro the following year and made a valiant bid at US Open glory at Oakmont last year when leading by two shots going into the final round.

Being paired with Tiger and the pressure of leading a Major for the first time got to him and he faded to 13th but he should be much better equipped this time.

Baddeley has plenty of experience of Torrey Pines having teed it up in five Buick Invitationals.

His best finish came this year when tied 13th and he's never missed the cut.

His current form isn't outstanding but he was runner-up at Hilton Head after the US Masters and has been fairly solid since.

The key, of course, could be his putting. Baddeley is top of the US Tour's Putting stats and can be deadly on fast greens.

Snap up the 80/1.

After making some rather risky plays, I won't apologise for closing with an obvious pick and having a decent win bet on Phil Mickelson.

If the left-hander is finally going to end his agonising wait for a US Open, surely this is the place to do it.

This is Mickelson's local course and he's been playing it since the age of nine.

He's won the Buick Invitational three times, had another six top eight finishes and, crucially, will also know better than most how the course plays in June as opposed to January.

Mickelson has a phenomenal record on his native West Coast, picking up yet another win when collecting the Northern Trust Open at Riviera earlier this year, and just two starts ago he produced a miracle birdie at the last to win at Colonial.

After runners-up finishes in 1999, 2002, 2004 and 2006, Mickelson has a golden chance to finally get his hands on the US Open trophy and he's fantastic at rising to the occasion when roared on as the local hero (he's also won twice at Phoenix where he spent his college days).

Being paired with Tiger over the first two days isn't ideal but it's now or never for Phil and I'm backing the San Diego native at 8/1.

APPLEBY CAN OPEN MAJOR DOOR: Betting Zone - Euro 2008 Football Betting, Racing Betting, Cricket Betting, Golf Betting, Rugby Betting, Sports Betting

[FC Basher]

Trevor Immelman 41.00 the way he birdied the three toughest holes last week to send himself into a play off in last weeks event was truly amazing golf,this guy has plenty about him and im sure can give you a run for your money now he has settled down after winning the Masters

[traeth]

muze i like that Tiger call , basher i'll be folllowing you on immelman , havn't decided on which of "my favourites i'll be on yet

just a reminder about paddies offer

US Open 2008 - Six Places!
That's why Paddy Power are paying 1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4-5-6 Places on the US Open 2008 at Torrey Pines.

here are my bets
Woods @ 4.3 betfair
my paddies bets
Each way Stenson, Henrik @ 76.00
Each way Immelman, Trevor @ 41.00
Each way Weekley, Boo @ 67.00
Each way Cink, Stewart @ 34.00
Each way Donald, Luke @ 31.00

[FC Basher]

Thanks for those traeth,I'll go with your Boo Weekely I had him last week,he has good stats with the driver accuracy and greens in regulation,fingers crossed he can putt for us

[Winrew]

Got to agree with Muze , 7/2 is a decent price for Tiger..

Gonna go for a couple of E/W shots.
Undecided who at the moment.......

[Winrew]

Luke Donald seems to have a bit of form lately , you can get 4/1 ( Bet365 , Betfred , Stan James ) on him being the top GB & Ireland player.

Whats the course like ?
7/4 on a hole in one ..

[mrmuzeman]

I havent had time to research this tournament in depth so im not championing any new names like I sometimes do but going along with my 'nap' for The Players Championship last month, Justin Leonard (66/1 to win, 11/1 top 5, 11/2 top 10), is one to consider.

He is in superb form this year and totally ticks all the boxes youd want which was why I picked him for The Players and yet he didnt make the cut. But I see since this hes actually won a tourny in a playoff at the Stanford St Jude which means my previous interest wasnt unwarranted. A live contender imo with heaps of experience

[mrmuzeman]

The course is the longest on the entire PGA tour I believe. Theres a par 5 thats over 600yards if they wish to use a certain tee

[mrmuzeman]

Also following up on other bets I made at The Players Championship im going to take a small interest in Jerry Kelly for a Top 10 Placing @ 14/1. He flirted with the top 10 at The Players while ultimately finishing down in 35th or so but in the 2 tournaments since has gone 15th and 2nd. That is clearly demonstrating getting back to somewhere near the form which took him to 2 top 10 finishes in majors just last year (5th at Masters, 7th US Open). At 14/1 just for top 10 I think its definitely worth a shot.

If Tiger isnt having a good tourny ill be looking to make some bets after the cut for sure, if he is doing well ill just sit back and enjoy the ride probably.

Tiger Woods 7/2
Justin Leonard w/o Woods 61/1
Justin Leonard Top 5 11/1
Jerry Kelly Top 10 14/1

[Beanie]

I'm gonna keep my powder dry early on I think - one too many question marks over a few of the players that make up a large %age of the market, and the massive field puts me off further - the usual in running system punts for me.

GL all - would be good to see Tiger roar back

[Winrew]

Double bogie for Tiger on the third
Early days i suppose...