[mrmuzeman]

First major of the year, so worth getting a thread up with a bit of time to spare

TDP always seems to bag some decent winners on the majors (some of us landed Zach Johnson in this tourny last year) so lets see what we can do and get the picks rolling.

The Masters unlike the other majors is held at the same course each year - Augusta. You could certainly argue that past quality performers in this major are therefore likely to perform well again.

Ive been researching for the last couple of hours, will post up in the coming week when things are a bit more concrete.

RE: Tiger Woods. Despite his imperious form coming into this major I wont be bothering backing him pre tourny. Best you can get is 5/4 and thats pretty paltry imo. Id need an absolute minimum of 6/4 to back Tiger as thats around where I would rate his chances.

[mrmuzeman]

This starts in 3 days.

I have very small outrights on

KJ Choi - 50/1
Hunter Mahan - 200/1
Brandt Snedeker - 400/1

KJ Choi is a player ive followed for quite a while as the top asian player out there. Hes never won a major before but I think hes ripe for it this season if he is to win one in his career. Hes had some decent showings in majors with 4 top 10s, his best showing being in this major itself (which shows he likes the course) in 2004 when placed 3rd. Hes on the best form of his career, winning 3 PGA tournies in the last 9 months which is asbolutely outstanding form and shows he is fully capable of closing out events with a win. Currently ranked 7th on the PGA tour.

The other 2, Mahan and Snedeker, are totally speculative longshots but which I feel are massive value for a field of 90 players. Basically both players are yanks who have had a great last year or so and have both importantly posted a tournament win on the PGA tour in that period. They have both played 1 time each in the masters before (a key point since no 1st time performance has won The Masters). Both are currently ranked in the top 50 (32 and 44 respectively). Snedeker was the PGA Tour Rookie (despite being 27) of the year in 2007.

Hunter Mahan especially showed signs last season of possible strides in the majors, finishing 13th, 6th and 18th in his last 3 efforts. This shows big tourny form and hopefully he can build on that at nice prices this season.

[keemanan]

I'm on Muze , sounds like a couple of good trend type bets there.
Cant beat a good trend

[Beanie]

Nice one Muze - I've written out a preview for this too - will try to fire it up tonight or tomorrow morning after a few changes after the Shell Houston last night.

Saw a few pics of the course today - looking amazing as always and its gonna be a great one to watch.

[mrmuzeman]

Sweet. Im also looking to go for some place bets as well but not 'placed' them yet, ha Goosen for top 5 is one I cant see me not being on, hes finished 2nd, 3rd, 3rd in his last 3 Masters and as previously stated its always at Augusta, so he obviously loves the course and its 6/1ish currently for him to repeat. Not to mention in the 3 Masters before those he placed 13th, 13th. 2nd.

As long as the prices remain similar I think Ill be sticking with those 3 players for outrights throughout the majors this year. Maybe not the British Open necessarily, but the US Open and PGA anyway.

[Beanie]

A few quick thoughts then, on the course, on Tiger(since he makes up half the market), and on the rest...

Course - significantly lengthened 2 years ago so well worth giving the results of 2006 and 2007 more significance than the others - changes means that the course lends itself to the big hitters. A bit of moisture in the air, as has usually been the case, and those that can boom off the tee will gravitate towards the top of the leaderboard. Last year the weather was very dry, the greens therefore less receptive, and so accuracy to the green became more important and the big hitters struggled a little more than usual, and so the weather forecast could again be quite important.

Debutants tend to suffer(as muze points out) - as much as they can prepare all week - there are so many little nooks and crannies lying in wait that its no surprise that most, if not all, will get caught out with a double bogey or two somewhere along the way, and so are perhaps best avoided this week.

Tiger - Form, check. He comes into this having won 7 of his last 8 tournaments, and wasn’t too far away in the other. His scoring average is almost half a shot better than it’s ever been, and his mental game looks as solid as ever, battling to narrow early wins to take the Matchplay Title and nailing a 25ft putt at the 18th to pip Bart Bryant to the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The only blip so far this year has been at Doral in the World Championships, where finishing in 5th, 2 shots shy of Geoff Ogilvy.

And for the Masters, it’s perhaps this result that is of the most significance – despite some fairly resigned chat from rivals in the run up, and particularly a couple of rounds in where Tiger was joint leader, there was some pretty big words being thrown about – unbeatable, inhuman, invincible – Geoff Ogilvy’s win – or Tiger’s inability to push on and win after round 2, shows that he is none of those things. Brilliant, masterful, breathtaking, yes…unbeatable, no.

More than anything, I think what Doral showed is that its important to remember that while Tiger is the true great of the game at the moment – there remain many other big time winners, superbly gifted golfers who have been there and done it before and who won’t fold if they see Tiger’s name appear up there alongside them on Sunday. Doral had virtually everyone who’s anyone teeing up(minus Harrington). More about them later, but it’s important to put his run into some perspective – as awesome as it is, it is not against this class of field every week, and so this will be by far his sternest test.

Course record, check. 2,3,1,22,15,1,1,5. He hasn’t shown any ill effects to the lengthening of the course 2 years ago, and had the weather remained better he would likely have earnt a 4th green jacket last year. It’s also worth noting that he comes into this years’ tournament in better form than in either of the last two years: the only comparable season is 2001 where he went on to win here by 12. On this course, if the weather continues to favour the longer hitters on this course, I can’t see any negatives.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Price – with the above all taken into account, you could make a case for him being odds on IMO – he has the game and the form to get into contention, and the mentality to close it out.

At 2.36, my clicking finger would be gravitating towards the ‘back’ button rather than the ‘lay’ button, but as much as everyone has their price, backing someone at near evens in a 90+ runner golf tourney always feels a bit alien. More so here, as the field is absolutely stellar - a field crammed full of major winners and emerging stars who have the ability to do something special, and so to really understand that price, a look at the other 93 is needed.

[Beanie]

Will get onto the others tomorrow - want a closer look at a few.

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

Sweet. Im also looking to go for some place bets as well but not 'placed' them yet, ha Goosen for top 5 is one I cant see me not being on, hes finished 2nd, 3rd, 3rd in his last 3 Masters and as previously stated its always at Augusta, so he obviously loves the course and its 6/1ish currently for him to repeat. Not to mention in the 3 Masters before those he placed 13th, 13th. 2nd.

As long as the prices remain similar I think Ill be sticking with those 3 players for outrights throughout the majors this year. Maybe not the British Open necessarily, but the US Open and PGA anyway.

Been weighing that Goose punt up Muze - and yeah I like it. His form this year has been pretty poor, until roaring back with T2 at the World Champs. His price is so long because of that shonky early season form, but its worth noting that 2007 was hardly a good year for him and he still turned in a good Masters performance there, so at 6/1 its got to be worth a punt that he can enjoy himself on this course and in this company again.

[2damnhype]

Can't argue with anything posted above. Hopefully gonna get chance to post something up properly later.

Have had one little bet to start with though
Mickleson 10/3 to beat Tiger over 72 holes.

I know all about how well Tiger is playing, the its The Masters, how he prepares etc. But this is ONE HUNDRED TO THIRTY about the second best player in the world beating the best player in the world, on a course on which Phil is pretty awesome himself - and lets not forget its where he won his first Major - an event of huge significance for him.

[Beanie]

A quick one line rumble through the field - I fancy covering everyone so I can see exactly why I discounted the winner in the end

First lot...

Robert Allenby – Indifferent form coming into this and has never really shown the consistency to be able to build on a good start.
Stephen Ames – Never been a fast starter and after a week off I cant see him getting off to the flyer necessary this week.
Stuart Appleby – Started the season very strongly but dipping again coming into this – good result last year but in different conditions should be an also ran again.
Woody Austin – As good as a debutant not having played for over 10 years – slighty too erratic to be considered I think.
Aaron Baddeley – One of the few that don’t have course form in with a big chance IMO – impeccable ball striker and has the ability to blitz this course which should suit his game. One for the shortlist.
Angel Cabrera – Course will suit his game as he showed with a T8 in 2006. Form is questionable with 2 MCs and a Withdrawal in his last 3– would like further info on how he’s feeling coming into this.
Jonathan Byrd – Nothing to suggest a big performance this week.
Mark Calcavecchia – Always consistent but this isn’t really the course for him to genuinely threaten.
K.J. Choi – Always a big danger if he can get into contention – his wire to wire win in Hawaii proves that mental strength once again. With the 50/1 gone tho I cant make a case for backing at just over 40/1 on a course that doesn’t really suit.
Paul Casey – Struggling to regain form of the last 2 years and he just doesn’t have the consistency to put 4 solid rounds together at the moment.
Daniel Chopra – Strong end to 07 but can be erratic at times, and Augusta likely to find him out on his first try,
Stewart Cink – Another that shows superb consistency, but seems to lack the mental toughness that will be required for this. Possible Top 10, but not an outright punt IMO.
Tim Clark – Very streaky player with a hopelessly weak mental game. 2nd in ’06, but again his inability to close out makes him a place possibility rather than an outright.
Fred Couples – 3rd in ’06 and comes into this playing superbly. Drive is still massive, and he’s well rehearsed round here. With plenty crowd support, looks a big price at the moment.
Luke Donald – Can’t have him at such a price – game tends to struggle under pressure and hasn’t shown much round to round consistency.
Ernie Els – Question marks over whether the hunger is still there for Ern. Has struggled this season with both fitness and form, and also with Augusta since it was lengthened. Not the one for him.
Nick Dougherty – debutant, but he’s pretty fearless and will absolutely go for it this week. Seems to be enjoying himself at the moment and has the ability, if not the consistency, to put one stellar round in. Perhaps a decent ‘make the cut’ punt.
Niclas Fasth – Form mixed this year and course may not be to his liking.
Jim Furyk – Form and course record is fairly ordinary – the outsider of the big names at 50+ but even at that price he’s hard to back at the moment.
Sergio Garcia – Such a talented player, such a dreadful putter. You have to be able to putt to post low scores at Augusta and until he sorts that out I cant back him.
Retief Goosen – Course form is stellar, recent form is not. However, shown a couple of possible signs of recovery of late, and might just enjoy it round here. Possible place punt.
Soren Hansen – Debutant, although game is solid enough, if not spectacular enough, to deal with that well.
Anders Hansen – Good potential but first time round here and a little too erratic to see as any sort of threat.
Padraig Harrington – Open win should stand him in good stead for this – pressure off and can enjoy it. His course management is good and I can see him going well this week, although at sub 30s is tough to back.
J.B. Holmes – Huge drive and often underrated player, wouldn’t be surprised to see him go the best of all debutants.
Charles Howell – Fairly uninspiring player and the course doesn’t suit.
Trevor Immelman – Heaps of potential but not realizing it this year. Not the one for him.
Zach Johnson – Title holder but course isn’t suited to his game. Unlikely to see the weather give such assistance this time, and rivals will have learnt from his superb course management last year if it is.
Miguel-Angel Jimenez – Started well a few times this year but failed to capitalize – price looks big though.
Robert Karlsson – plenty ability but Augusta doesn’t really sit well with his game – not much form to speak of this year but again, price does look on the large side for a capable player like him.
Jerry Kelly – failed to turn any potential winning or high placing positions into actual good performances this year, but got the potential to start fast.
Bernhard Langer – About the only oldy with any sort of chance – on stunning form on the Seniors tour, but course isn’t really for him.
Hunter Mahan – always a handy ‘1st round leader’ punt – has the ability to shoot the lights out on any course, but consistency over 4 rounds still the big problem.
Phil Mickelson – hmm, current form, average, course form, stunning. I’ve read that in some columns that his game is superb coming into this, that its in bits in others. Last week he said his short game needs work – which is usually his strongest point. Need more info but tricky to back at current price.
Shaun Micheel – shocking run lately and missed last 2 masters cuts. No thanks.

[Beanie]

Arron Oberholser – Not playing well this year and struggling with injury. Brilliant on his day but not this week for me.
Sean O'Hair – Very solid player who can be brilliant on his day and can easily put 4 rounds together – question marks over the course for him but a decent outsider.
Geoff Ogilvy – great form coming into this – the only man to face off against Tiger this year and win. His game is rock solid at the moment and his putting excellent. Price is on the low side but surely guaranteed a run for your money. Has gone into both the previous years Masters on similar runs and finished safely inside the top 25 both times.
Nick O'Hern – Not bad in this sort of company as he showed at Doral, and I think he could go well this week. Price looks generous.
Jose-Maria Olazabal – the old boy looks over his injury problems, but surely too early to see a return to his best.
Ian Poulter – quite a solid player these days, and usually doesn’t get the respect his game deserves for a variety of reasons. Should have a decent week on a course that he should find to his liking.
Justin Rose – Immensly solid player these days and a strong start to 2008. Place punt a deffo possibility for me.
Andres Romero – won recently, huge drive, but otherwise very erratic. On this course I can’t see his game suiting as he’ll throw in a few doubles or trebles at some point(or perhaps even a 12 like last week!)
Rory Sabbatini – Unpopular player on tour but always seems to show well at the big events and mental game is solid enough. T2 last year but may struggle a little more this year unless the weather helps.
Adam Scott – Withdrew with a fever last week and has said that if this wasn’t a major he wouldn’t be playing. Great player at times, but given I cant back him at the best of times due to his inconsistency then with illness in the mix he’s a definite no no.
Jeev Singh – Doesn’t seem daunted in this company as he showed at the World Champs – clearly relishing his time in the spotlight and should enjoy himself this week.
John Senden – Another Aussie – and a very underrated player IMO. Tee to green is superb, and if he can have a good week with the putter can get himself right in there. Another debutant who should go well.
Vijay Singh – Like Els, have to question if the desire is still there. Should have won a couple of times already this season but mental game looks very poor. Loves the course though, and a place punt could be the call, not for the outrights tho IMO.
Brandt Snedeker – Superb year last year and his putting is always very good, but question marks over whether he has managed to carry that form into this year now that he’s made his breakthrough.
Richard Sterne – Massive hitter and despite being a first timer round here, it might just suit.
Henrik Stenson – Always tricky to read Stenson – comes into this with a superb record of top 10 finiishes, but has done that for other majors in the past and then sunk without trace. Course should suit in theory – but maybe one to sit back and watch his R1 first.
Steve Stricker – Seems solid at the minute – always throws in a poor round here and there but has an adaptable game and has shown ability to win big tournaments in the Fedex playoffs. Bit tricky to fathom – but worth another look.
Justin Leonard – has the ability, and despite some average recent form has shown signs that he could be ready to get back to his best. Not one to entirely discount.
Camilo Villegas – One of the most erratic players on tour and not sure that that’s something suited to the Masters.
Scott Verplank – Not having a strong 08 and so usual consistent record looks under threat.
Bubba Watson – massive driver of the ball and this course might just be suited to him as he’s a left hander. At the massive prices he looks the pick, despite this being his first time.
Mike Weir – Dodgy form but again, as a left hander, this course could suit as he has shown in the past.
Boo Weekley – Erratic player, unlikely to be fazed by the stage or the company. Having said that – unlikely to go mistake free in any round and so not for me.
Brett Wetterich – another huge driver – little form or record here but at 700 perhaps worth a punt.
Lee Westwood – really cant see a chance for Lee this week – not the type of course for him and of all the big names he’s just about the most inconsistent.
Peter Lonard – Some good recent results but cant make a case for him here, as course doesn’t suit and looks very fragile mentally.
Martin Kaymer – played well at Doral in similar company. Superbly clever young player and one who should figure out this course better than most first timers.
Johnson Wagner – only qualified last week and will enjoy it, but too many holes in his game to get into contention.
Vaughn Taylor – beginning to struggle after a promising start to the year, and can’t see him stopping that decline here.

[Beanie]

Not quite them all, I've given about 15 complete duffers a miss.

I'm down to a shortlist of about 20 at the moment, wanna get that down to about 4 or 5.

Weather looks ok ish altho possible thunderstorms for Friday is the news.

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Not quite them all, I've given about 15 complete duffers a miss.

We know where the winner's coming from now

No, seriously, great write up Beanie

[Beanie]

If Sandy Lyle wins I'll give you all your stakes back myself

Word of warning on Choi - his caddy gave an interview today sounding none too positive - I'm trying to find a copy of it just now but the gist of it was that with the rain that they have had there he thinks that the course is playing too long for Choi's game.

[Bigkegman]

great stuff guys.

heard a bit about JB Holmes as well. Massive hitter and if conditions suit then he may do well

[traeth]

a great read , i usually have my own favourites that i always follow and add a few from recommendations from tdp experts , was on bubba in one of the majors last year and had a couple of great days of excitement , thanks for the pointers boys