[Hippy Dave]

Par 3 contest should be a bit of a laugh this evening, golf's Twenty20 equivilant I guess.

The players with par 3 scoring averages under 3 on the US Tour (who are playing in this) are

Tiger Woods 2.92 33/1
Luke Donald 2.93 33/1
Steve Lowery 2.97 100/1
Aaron Baddely 2.98 50/1
Padraig Harrington 2.98 28/1
Reteif Goosen 2.99 44/1
Andres Romero 2.99 66/1

Not often you get the chance to back Tiger for anything at 33/1, and he does have the best stats, tempting ...

[Hippy Dave]

And he's not playing it seems

[traeth]

my selections

Harrington, Padraig e.w@26.00
Donald, Luke e.w@51.00
Cink, Stewart e.w@67.00
Stenson, Henrik e.w@67.00
Watson, Bubba e.w.@251.00


this offer from paddies looks good if Tiger runs away with the masters

Master Class!
Augusta National GC
April 10th - April 13th Live on BBC & Setanta
Money-Back Special
If Tiger Woods wins the 2008 US Masters by five or more shots, Paddy Power will refund all losing outright bets placed before the start of the tournament.

T&C
Applies to singles only.
Applies to bets placed before the Tournament starts only.
Official PGA Tour result is final.
Max Refund €300/£200 per customer.
Applies to Win part of Each Way bets only.
Paddy Power Golf rules apply.

thanks to all that have helped my selection by contributing to this thread

[ONEDUNME]

Originally Posted by Beanie

I think thats true for the most part ODM, but not in relation to Tiger. He's staged remarkable comebacks so often and experienced and inexperienced players alike have fallen to bits so often when they see his name anywhere near the top of the leaderboard that the market tends to keep faith with Tiger until the bitter end. In my opinion he's almost always short throughout a tournament.

If he's 4 shots back after day 1 then his price wont budge - he's the most consistent player on Tour by a mile and you can almost guarantee a further 3 solid rounds, whereas virtually all other players will throw in a wobble.

I'm not saying laying him is a bad move btw, just that I'm not sure laying off will be particularly valuable at any point.

.

You're spot on of course Beanie. I didn't initially back Woods with a lay and back policy in mind. More of a sense that if I can go into the last day with 3 or 4 players at around the same score as him then I'll be happy with letting it run at the price I have.

You're right that Tiger is a different animal and normal rules don't apply to him but if he does have a stinker of a day and his price weakens by a point or two, it's an option.

I accept that all logic says I'm doomed but in the same way as any poor sucker foolish enough to lay Man United last Saturday was doomed.

Sometimes, fortune favours the stupid.

[mrmuzeman]

Finalised all my bets, ill put em up cos I wouldnt want to afterevent if any came in

To Win
Tiger Woods - 5/2
KJ Choi - 60/1
Hunter Mahan - 220/1
Brandt Snedeker - 410/1

Top 5
Retief Goosen - 5/1
Rory Sabattini - 14/1
Tim Clark - 18/1

Top 10
Geoff Ogilvy - 2/1
Hunter Mahan - 15/2
Brandt Snedeker - 11/1

Top European - Justin Rose - 6/1 ew

Top Debutant - John Senden - 12/1 ew

[mrmuzeman]

Top Debutant is an interesting market. 20 players debut this Masters so thats your field to pick from. As (obviously) none have played the Masters before and many have hardly played in majors before or even are attending their first, its somewhat of an unknown quantity. I wouldnt back anyone in single figure odds so that ruled the market leader Andres Romero out. I looked for some key components that I thought would serve up a potential market winner.

- A player that had good experience on the PGA tour
- A player with a previous top 10 American major finish

This narrowed the field of 20 down to a group of 3, John Senden (12/1), Boo Weekley (12/1) and Bubba Watson (16/1).

I dont rate Bubba Watson whatsoever and I think his 5th place at last years US Open was a bit of a flash in the pan if im honest. His results are poor this year so far so im not betting him.

Boo Weekley played the last 3 majors of 2007 and did very respectably culminating in a 9th place finish at the PGA Champs. Hes also in good form this year so far without being spectacular.

John Senden has a ton of experience on the PGA tour being well into his 30s and made a major breakthrough by finishing last years last major PGA champs in 4th. Turned himself from a journeyman into a top 50 player the last couple of years and hes on very good form this year featuring a 2nd place finish.

Overall I decided aussie John Senden was the man to go for at 12/1. Hes had the highest finish in a major of all debutants, the most experience on the PGA tour of all of them and is importantly in good form, he certainly ticks all the boxes. I think Boo Weekley is more good to land the e/w than the win in the market, I dont really fancy him to really push on for a top placing (the e/w pays 1/5 odds for top 4 debutants btw).

[Snodser]

Good one . Had not noticed that market .

Senden ticks all the boxes so I'm with you

[Beanie]

My only problem with Senden was his short game really, his putting is pretty weak and around Augusta thats a very dangerous thing.

Same goes for Watson, Weekley, Holmes etc - the one who I thought could really adapt well to the course and the greens is Daniel Chopra @ 12/1 in the top debutant market who can be dynamite with the short stick.

[Beanie]

And a few matchbets to polish off with:

Sabbatini v Choi @ 2.42

Sabbatini won the par 3 competition last night, and in general looks comfortable here. He finished T2 last year, and has a solid short game and strong mentality to compete round Augusta. Choi's a superb player on his day but his game doesn't look suited to this course - his caddie admitted earlier this week that KJ could struggle here is the weather is as forecast where the longer hitters will prosper.

Rose v Donald @ 1.85

Rose is by far the most consistent of the pair, and is usually there or thereabouts come the end of events in America. His ability to put four solid rounds together with very few errors will be key at the Masters, while Donald has a tendency to throw in mistakes here and there when up the top of the leaderboard, and I cant see him making an impression here.

And a couple more outright fancies...

Baddelley @ 80 - superb ball striker and hints that he's coming into form.
Chopra @ 440 - superb around the greens and has won this year.
Karlsson @ 720 - price looks too big - superb scrambler which could be key this week.

[Winrew]

My bets

Top Amateur Drew Weaver @ 5/2
Winner Retief Goosen @ 25/1 and Phil Mikelson @ 11/1.
Top European Harrington @ 4/1.
Top Scandinavian Anders Hansen @ 9/2
Top 5
Reteif Goosen @ 5/1

And small stakes for a hole in one at the 6th @ 11/1 and the 12th @ 14/1.

Good luck all ......

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by mrmuzeman

Im gona take Woods btw but not at the normal price. Ive always thought that things like backing Woods in majors are the ideal way to open new betting accounts and take advantage of the free £25 matched bet thingy loads have going. They usually stipulate that you must use your free bet at better than Evens and Woods is just the right side of that and hes always gona give you a run for your mola. So £25 on Woods at 6/5, get the free bet for £25, whack it on Woods and youve got yourself £25 on Woods to make £60 profit or £25 @ 12/5 essentially for a nice value bet. Thats what im gona do anyway.

I'm gonna do similar with Boylesports - £50 at Boylesports @ 6/5 which will earn a £50 free bet. They also have 2 money back offers on the Masters where all outright bets are refunded if Harrington wins, and also all bets on a player refunded if that player birdies the 18th in his final round. Not bad.

[Snodser]

Won't get any tv coverage till midnight in my part of the world. So if there is anyone who knows how to watch this via the net please pass it on.

Much obliged.

[mrmuzeman]

Originally Posted by Beanie

My only problem with Senden was his short game really, his putting is pretty weak and around Augusta thats a very dangerous thing.

Same goes for Watson, Weekley, Holmes etc - the one who I thought could really adapt well to the course and the greens is Daniel Chopra @ 12/1 in the top debutant market who can be dynamite with the short stick.

Youre right about his short game of course although his accuracy off the tee leaves a lot to be desired. He does have a lot of experience on the PGA tour though so thats a fair shout. I was looking for someone with a proven impact already on a major though, and Chopra has played 4 and missed 2 cuts and done nothing much in the other 2. Hes certainly one of the more lively contenders though.

[Beanie]

Aye your right muse. Hopefully both in with a shout come Sunday.

Originally Posted by Snodser

Won't get any tv coverage till midnight in my part of the world. So if there is anyone who knows how to watch this via the net please pass it on.

Much obliged.

Not a chance Snod - the fuddy duddies that run the Masters ensure bugger all coverage allowed - pretty sure there is no live pics anywhere for another couple of hours until the BBC start their Amen Corner coverage, and no full coverage until late tonight.

Start delayed by fog.

[Beanie]

Managed to get a bit of cash on Couples to make the cut @ 1.40 - 23 cuts out of 23 at Augusta and in current form looks unlikely to start now. Fair price that.