[ONEDUNME]

Just done possibly the single most stupid think I've ever done in my life and laid Woods at 2.44 for a fair wedge with a view to possibly buyin him back if he has a poor start.

If he runs away with it then I'm cooked.

Also backed on the market without Woods (thanks guys) with a view to backing in running and hopefully finishing all green by Sunday evening - although I don't even know what the tee off times are our time

Goosen (also backed for a top five finish)
Choi (only 40s now on the full list so the bookies are running scared of the Muze Man.)
Hunter Mahan (great name)
Bent Snorkler
J B Holmes

and my own old favs Singh and Furyk.

I've always had a bit of a soft spot for Harrington so I'll be cheering him on if he's still in contention and my stable have gone home.

[ONEDUNME]

I've done a bit of betting on the golf market, based on sticking with the same players rather than any knowledge whatsoever, but I've found that the big prices along with the fact that the prices can move rapidly in and out after even one good or bad shot and the fact that it's a marathon rather than a sprint makes it a pretty easy market to end up the right side of usually.

Notwithstanding, Woods possibly teeing off and never getting caught on this occasion

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME

Bent Snorkler

Surely you are taking the piss?! And if not, surely his name is better than Hunter Mahan

[mrmuzeman]

Bent Snorkler I had a snedeker at that one.

Im gona take Woods btw but not at the normal price. Ive always thought that things like backing Woods in majors are the ideal way to open new betting accounts and take advantage of the free £25 matched bet thingy loads have going. They usually stipulate that you must use your free bet at better than Evens and Woods is just the right side of that and hes always gona give you a run for your mola. So £25 on Woods at 6/5, get the free bet for £25, whack it on Woods and youve got yourself £25 on Woods to make £60 profit or £25 @ 12/5 essentially for a nice value bet. Thats what im gona do anyway.

[Beanie]

I think thats true for the most part ODM, but not in relation to Tiger. He's staged remarkable comebacks so often and experienced and inexperienced players alike have fallen to bits so often when they see his name anywhere near the top of the leaderboard that the market tends to keep faith with Tiger until the bitter end. In my opinion he's almost always short throughout a tournament.

If he's 4 shots back after day 1 then his price wont budge - he's the most consistent player on Tour by a mile and you can almost guarantee a further 3 solid rounds, whereas virtually all other players will throw in a wobble.

I'm not saying laying him is a bad move btw, just that I'm not sure laying off will be particularly valuable at any point.

Was reading some interesting thoughts re: ball flight a minute ago - and it sounds reasonable. The idea is that given Augusta greens are so fast, the higher the ball flight, the easier the greens are to hold. Given that no stats are available, it makes it a bit tricky mind you. I know Ogilvy, Baddelly and a few other Aussies have a high flight, but not sure about others.

[2damnhype]

Well as i said i have taken Mickelson over Woods.

Have had Goosen to beat Choi - as said above Goosen as a great record around Augusta, and has shown signs recently of coming back to form. Choi has turned into a quality player who wins all over the world, and has had a couple of decent finishes over the years, ut not really since the course has underone 'tiger proofing'.

Am looking to oppose Sergio Garcia in some way or another, but none of the match-ups that he is involved in appeal, and i don't do spread bets! Will have to see how the 3 Balls line up (cos am sure he won't be around for the weekend 2 balls).

[Beanie]

What odds did you get the Goosen bet at 2damn?

I'd agree re: Garcia - I like the fella but he's so frustrating. Tee to green he can be absolutely inspired at times, one of the players that had the shotmaking ability to rival Tiger, but his putting(and because of that, his mental game) are so bad. The greens this week are only going to make that worse.

[2damnhype]

Goosen is 17/20 at Paddy Power to beat Choi

Have just been on the PGA Tour site to see if could find the result of the par 3 competition, they have a banner on there saying 'PICKS: THE MASTERS'.
Guess what they have about six or seven columnists, all of whom go for Tiger Woods -ffs what's the point?

[mrmuzeman]

Regarding Garcia, Ive noticed an interesting trend with him in majors. I looked to see if I could capitalise on it but I cant pre tourny as the odds are pretty stingy in such a market (miss the cut market). We may be able to take advantage after the cut though. Anyway, these are the stats

Garcia played 37 majors / missed 11 cuts (which is a lot for a quality player imo). I can only see Bet365 and Betfair doing a miss the cut market and as a result (combined with awful liquidity) hes statistically priced up near spot on at 5/2. If you really fancy him to miss the cut tho 2damn thats the bet for you.

26 cuts made / 8 top 5s / 13 top 10s

Now thats an awful lot of Top 5s there. Basically if he makes the cut he plays very well very often, thats 31% of finishing in the top 5 when making the cut, his odds would often be way way better than 2/1 of making top 5 after the cut, so could be a possible future bet there for a top 5 placeing. Obviously thats 50% top 10s so same rules apply odd depending on whether it would be value.

Id never back him to win though, I think after blowing last years British Open to Harrington hes mentally fudged.

[mrmuzeman]

He has done poorly recently at The Masters too. Missed cut/46th/Missed cut is his last 3 years efforts at Augusta. Came 4th the year before that though

[2damnhype]

Nice work Muze - i just see the missed cuts 2 from the last 3 at the Masters, and that he isn't exactly firing on all cylinders at the mo.
For a guy that showed so much potential from an early age i think he has to be seen as an underacheiver in his career to date.

Dunno why i was looking for the result of the par 3 tonight - it ain't played until tomorrow!! But if i do find it tonight i will be sure to post

[Winrew]

Some nice stuff lads

Just gone for Retief Goosen each way so far , more bets to follow.

[Beanie]

Onto a couple of important stats for this week - driving is obvious given the length of the course and the weather forecast, but also its worth looking at the undulating greens and hazards around them.

The speed of the greens means that putting is imperative, and the various slopes and ridges on them makes chipping very tricky, and only done well by the very best.

That cuts a few out of it - I'm going to ignore JB Holmes and Bubba Watson for a few reasons - a) for all their big drives, their putting and scrambling stats are pretty abysmal, b) Holmes particularly has already shortened significantly to 170 on Betfair, almost to the point that he isnt an outsider any more, and c) one of the reasons debutants don't tend to win is because the greens are horrendous to read first time out. The undulations, the speed, it all requires an ability that this pair has never shown any evidence of.

[Beanie]

PS A final word is that I'd expect Tiger to shorten by the off, perhaps go off at 2.32/2.34.

The reason being is that the bookies are all sitting at 5/4, the reason being that they don't have to push him out to take bets on him given that its the Masters and its Tiger - the 4 times a year high street golf punters will be throwing their £20 at him in droves. I'd expect(just my theory mind) that the bookies will manage some of their liability on betfair before the off where they can currently have all they like at 2.44 and guarantee themselves some healthy profit already.

There's also the back to lay punters to factor in who always turn up when Tiger is out early on day 1(as he is on Thursday) - those that somehow correlate him having an early start to him being guaranteed to shorten right away.

So if you can be bothered, and fancy a nice little start to the Masters, a little back and lay play before the off looks decent - and if it doesnt happen I really can't see Tiger getting any longer than 2.46 so its plenty cheap enough to get out.

[Beanie]

Par 3 competition is live on BBCi tonight, with an in running market on BF, altho the word is Tiger aint playing.