Golf This Week(HSBC Matchplay, Frys.com, Madrid Open)

[Beanie]

Don't think I'll look at the 2 tournaments until after the 2nd round atleast - my p/l for bets placed prior to tournaments makes uncomfortable reading in contrast to healthy winnings on bets made coming down the stretch.

Matchplay is different though - should be a good tournament and there's a good bit of form to look at.

Draw:

Full draw (seeded position in brackets):
0815 and 1245
(1) Paul Casey (Eng) v (16) Jerry Kelly (US)
0827 and 1257
(8) Retief Goosen (SA) v (9) Angel Cabrera (Arg)
0839 and 1309
(5) Justin Rose (Eng) v (12) Hunter Mahan (US)
0851 and 1321
(4) Rory Sabbatini (SA) v (13) Soren Hansen (Den)
0903 and 1333
(3) Padraig Harrington (Ire) v (14) Anders Hansen (Den)
0915 and 1345
(6) Henrik Stenson (Swe) v (11) Woody Austin (US)
0927 and 1357
(7) Niclas Fasth (Swe) v (10) Andres Romero (Arg)
0939 and 1409
(2) Ernie Els (SA) v (15) Colin Montgomerie (Sco)

[Beanie]

Quick run through before digging deeper tomorrow...

Els is the obvious favourite having won the tournament 6 times, but his form recently is fairly wierd. Countless times this season he's been well in contention, rallied over the opening 9 to hit the top 5 and get himself in with a real shout, before collapsing over the final few holes. Did the same yet again last week. If it were a rookie putting in those performances he'd have been tagged as a serial bottler by now, which Els really shouldn't be given what he's won in the game. How does that form set him up for matchplay? Probably quite well, as he has been playing good golf, just not closing things out. Could resurface again if he gets to the final, but wouldn't expect too many problems in the early rounds. Rose is playing well, Casey looks underpriced, Harrington should be solid as ever, Cabrera is superb round Wentworth, ditto Goosen altho his form is questionable. Fasth could struggle, Sabbattini is certainly able, Romero is either hot or cold on a day to day basis so I'd rather get involved in the handicaps in his matches...the Hansens could be dangerous too.

Outright punts...

(2) Ernie Els (SA) 5 points @ 5.20 - The rightful favourite, playing well, and up against what looks a fairly weak field. Could stroll this if in the mood and I want him onside.

(9) Angel Cabrera (Arg) 3 points @ 12.50 - Proven round here, just hasn't been able to get the win. Tricky first round match v Goosen but I think he'll tough it out.

(14) Anders Hansen (Den) 1 point @ 36.00 - Won round here this season in the BMW and probably the most dangerous of the lower seeds.

(16) Jerry Kelly (US) 0.50 points @ 75.00 - An outsider no doubt and not playing well, but 75.00 to win? Looks big.

[2damnhype]

Is it just me being a bit out of touch with the Golf, getting old, or is the general standard of player in this event a lot lower now that it used to be?
I used to love watching this as it was a bit different to the stroke-play, always covered on domestic telly and was a chance to see the superstars.
Now it seems that they struggle to get the major players (and am I right in thinking that its not just an invitational that there is some European tour based qualifying system)

[Beanie]

Not really sure of the history of this one but yeah, there is some kind of qualification now which is why Fasth and Hansen are in there. Problem this season is that it comes on the back of the FedEx playoffs in the US, so a lot of the big players there play the Presidents Cup and then have a bit of a break, which means this one isn't really on the radar. Weakest field for a while for sure.

For the 1st round matches, will leave out those that involve the outright picks, which doesn't leave too many...

Fasth v Romero - I really don't think Fasth is playing too well, but this match all depends on Romero, he's either very hot or very cold. Can't imagine it will be a tight one, Romero to win or lose by atleast 4 I would say, so if I can find a bet to that end then that'll do me here.

Rose v Mahan - Can't see Mahan enjoying this at all - he wasn't the strongest of matchplayers in the presidents cup, and comes up against Rose who has been playing consistently for god knows how many months. Rose -1.5 holes is of interest.

Sabbatini v Soren Hansen - Soren Hansen looked a strong matchplayer in the Seve Trophy, and while Sabbatini comes in after a stellar season, it's also been a long one for him I wouldn't be surprised to see a below par Rory here. Hansen at decent odds.

Stenson v Austin - Pass.

Small punts as it's the 1st round.

1pt Rose v Mahan @ 1.60
0.5pts Fasth v Romero 1st Round widest winning margin @ 6.50(Stan James)

[fasteddy]

Nice stuff , Beanie. Agree with a lot of your comments.

Myself, I like the look of the other Hansen..Soren. He's had 6 Top 10's in his last 10 comps, and I believe his mental attitude will be excellent...especially vs Sabbatini. Rory is a law unto himself, and can be his own worst enemy, which gives anyone playing him head to head an edge straight away.

First rounds often provide the shocks, and travel and weather and format combine to get right up some players' noses. Rory could be one, I think.
He has decent form this season and is a great battler, but I just can't see him adapting quickly to this one.

Soren's 8th place finish last week is the perfect lead into this one, and he looks a value bet in the 1st match , and an outside punt overall.

Soren Hansen (vs Sabbatini) : 2.10 generally available
Outright: S. Hansen @ 26.00 hills

MONTY...now I DO like the look of him vs Els.....Monty keeps threatening to make a move the last few months, but it hasn't been seen through. Els and he both like the course and the format, so it should be close on paper, though not recent form.
f Ernie is on his game then it will be over quickly, BUT who knows?...Monty gets a quick start?...could be value. Got to have a touch on Mrs Doubtfire.
Monty @ 2.875 sporting bet

Justin Rose is well tipped up all over the place, but Hunter Mahan is no pushover. He's in good form and although not the most familiar with matchplay , he has 36 holes to make a move. Rose is a strong fav in this, making Mahan able to enter this one with little or no pressure on him. Big factor that. Both know each others games well from the PGA, so Mahan will be relaxed from that aspect. Mahan can hit them long and having watched him recently his putting and short game are both much improved.
Opening day...got the underdog tag....won't be fearing Rose....and able to get into hot streaks....well worth a punt.
Hunter Mahan (vs Rose) @ 2.625 laddies

[Chief77]

I've taken Cabrera and Goosen at 10/1 on the outrights for teh World Matchplay. Should be a cracking game between the two and I reckon the winner will give me a good run for my money. Slight preference for Cabrera tomorrow(he beat Ernie here last year in the 1st rd) but I wouldn't dare bet on the match.

Els V Monty: I've taken Els to finish off Monty up to and including the 33rd hole @11/10. Montys putting was very shoddy last week and he finished well down the field looking frustrated and angry with his weekends work. Els on the other hand seems to be hitting the ball well and finished in the top 10. Els is the King of this tournament and has won it 6 times in all. I reckon Monty could get stuffed tomorrrow and although this format will play to his strengths I think his putter will let him down tomorrow. Els to win pretty comfortably for me.

Fasth V Romero @4/5 Both players have had excellent seasons this year but it looks like Romero may have slightly gone off the boil after a lacklustre couple of months. Fasth on the other hand has gone from strength to strength and is playing as well now as he has done all year.

Casey V Kelly @1/2: Can't see past Casey here who excels in this format. He's the defending champion and he's up against Kelly who has had a pretty poor year by his standards. He hasn't played much golf in the last month either and I think its a lot to ask of him to beat the defending champ on his own patch.

In the Las Vegas Open I've had a couple of quid on Daly as I reckon he'll be in great form this weekend being in his spiritual home and everything. He had a good opening round of 69 last year before he withdrew and as long as he manages tohang around for all 4 rounds this year I reckon he'll give a good account of himself. 150/1 for the Wild Thing.

I've also taken Maruyama who done well last week and who had a top 20 finish here last year. 50/1 for him.


Verdicts:
Wentworth-
Els to bt Monty by 33rd hole @11/10
Fasth to bt Romero @4/5
Casey to bt Kelly @1/2

Outright:
Cabrera @10/1
Goosen @10/1


Las Vegas:
Daly @100/1
Maruyama @50/1

[FC Basher]

Hi Guys fantastic right ups as usual.
Heres the weblink for this tourney http://www.hsbcgolf.com/
Click on the course guide and you get a look at all the holes via a flyover camara.

[freddyfightsback]

i'm going to pile in to fasth and then have a bit on a hansen. i think i'll also look at cabrera with mahan and kelly as little outsiders to keep me abit of interest.
with fasth, i love his attitude. i feel as if the swedes are really good matchplayers-or perhaps that's just stenson and fasth! but either way fasth always seems really up for it, with a game that i think will be quite well suited to wentworth. against romero who we have all seen blow very hot or very cold, normally in a round, even though some might say that's good for matchplay,i disagree. i think that the momentum that fasth can get, he can get ahead and stay ahead, i don't see him choking or throwing away a lead. romero on the other hand, if he gets up, i couldn't trust him to close it out...
a hansen beacuse of his course record. really good around wentworth vs a harrington who has said in the past that he doesnt like wentworth. also i always pin harrington down as a choker-look at the open. yes he won it, but put it in the drink twice on the last! again i couldnt trust him to close out, i also (think) in ryder cup, he never really had important singles. the match would normally be over before it got to him...
the cabrera- course specialist. goose though has gone and spanked others in the past hensby got a thrashing one year i think. but this year the goose has disappeared, he really looks bored by it, but he could easily spark here. cabrera always goes walkabout in rounds, even final round us open on that back nine, yes he made 2 birdies, but did he not bogey 16/17? not the bottle that i like...
then kelly and mahan. mahan is a real good prospect, one of the better young americans imo, bit disappointed he is against rose-good 2nd back in may here. mahan can defo cause an upset, it could be here. and kelly is a nice streak player, casey was defo struggling before the seve when faldo apparently gave him some on course advice...don't know if i could trust him at 1/2.
good luck all!

[FC Basher]

Skybet go 10/1 for a Hole-in-One
From what I can see from the website the 2nd and 10th which are par 3's have been eagled and the 14th was holed in One by Thomas Bjorn in 2003.

[Beanie]

Nice write ups guys...and you've convinced me on Soren.

1pt S Hansen v Sabba @ 2.24

[Chief77]

Originally Posted by Chief77

Verdicts:
Wentworth-
Els to bt Monty by 33rd hole @11/10
Fasth to bt Romero @4/5
Casey to bt Kelly @1/2

Decent day today with Els and Casey doing the business. Fasth finishes his game tomorrow. Hes 2 down with 4 to play so he needs something special to pull that one back. Two par 5's to go tho so you never know.

Tomorrow i'm taking Cabrera @ Evens to beat Casey and Soren Hansen to beat Mahan @8/11. Cabrera played some great stuff today and he could go far in this tournament. Casey played well in patches but faded late on and nearly let Kelly back in. Don't think Casey should be favourite here so I'll be taking him on.

Verdict:
Cabrera @Evens
Hansen @8/11

[Beanie]

Nice touches Chief and Eddy - indifferent day on the matches but decent on the outrights for me.

Some decent wins for a few players, and some superb rounds, particularly Cabrera shooting 7 under for the first 18.

Will have a point on him to do the business against Casey - Casey looks a little inconsistent at the moment while Cabrera was on fire today - just a question of maintaining that level.

1pt Cabrera v Casey @ 1.93

[fasteddy]

The TDP did us all proud again. Great stuff from all concerned.

It pays to delve into the TDP for sports betting!

Praise enough !
Bit late today catching up ..busy boy...however, I see that Cabrera is doing you a good turn Beanie...2up after 22....got an itch to lay him a little @ 1.35 on Betfair.....but only 3 bogeys in 57 holes?..that's good....just feel he won't keep it going...has a habit of hitting a lull...however Casey does look beatable...mmmm, got to do it!!...No wait until they've played the 4th..eagle chances again for Cabrera.....no..I'm in @ 1.36

[fasteddy]

cancel that...can't bet unless my mate is online to do so for me...i'm in China, see...PLUS I was looking at the 'back' odds...bit of a knob, me.
Anyway, phonecall made and powder ready. Lets have a look

[fasteddy]

Oooo..Cabrera out to 1.50!!...missed the 1.39 that was up for laying...bastardo...leetle fish still taste nice..No?
Well the odds are flying about on this match so in the end I've had a small tickle on Casey @ 3.00...gives me an interest. Hopefully he pick up a hole or two...make it tight and let me back in....we can all be winners!!
GL all.