Golf this week (BMW and Omega)

[Wayne]

BMW International

Just spotted a decent offer at Paddy Powers.

Beat Tiger & You're Out of the Woods
Money-Back Special
If your selection finishes ahead of Tiger Woods in the BMW Championship and does not win, Paddy Power will refund losing outright bets on that player!

Not saying he won't finish well up the field again, but the guy's allowed a bad tournament every now and again.

I've followed BettingZone's tips again this week (who picked a 1st,2nd (at 200/1) and 6th in last week's Deutsche and turned my 30pt investment into 360pts ).

Sabbatini - 33/1 - 3.75pts ew
Scott - 28/1 - 3.75pts ew
Matteson - 150/1 - 2.5pts ew
Allenby - 80/1 - 2.5pts ew
Slocum - 100/1 - 2.5pts ew

All ew bets.

[Wayne]

Omega European

And the best offer around on this one is at Boylesports who are paying the extra place - 6 places at 1/4 the odds.

Again, followed BettingZone's tips;

Fasth - 16/1 - 5pts ew
Jimenez - 25/1 - 3.75pts ew
Gonzalez - 50/1 - 2.5pts ew
Dyson - 28/1 - 2.5pts ew

All ew bets

[Beanie]

Yea, noticed Bettingzone's good performance last week - and this week's selections look solid again.

Some first thoughts:

BMW

Mickelson doesn't play this week, obviously isn't too keen on the $10m for winning the FedEx.

As usual with these end of season tournies, it's reasonable to expect the big players to dominate once again. But Woods at 6/4? Ok, he played well from tee to green last week, but around the flag he looked a little out of sorts and at the kind of price he is in you'd want him to be right at the top of his game. Getting 1.6+ on the field in a 70 man golf tourney is staggering.

Vijay showed no signs of correcting his current slump last week and looks a little bit disinterested in this end of season playoff structure.

It's been raining in Chicago and word is that the rough could grow to 6 inches by the weekend, and if the fairways dry out then that could become a real factor and make things a lot less predictable - another reason to swerve the Tiger I think.

Otherwise, I'm not going to stray too far from a handful with course form, and a few others who look to be coming onto a game.

Ones i'm considering at the mo:

Furyk - don't understand why he is longer than Els this week - absolutely loves this course finishing top 5 for 4 of the last 5 years, and injury troubles now look to be behind him. Time to get back to the golf.

Allenby - as noted by Bettingzone, goes well round here and came out of nowhere to finish well last week.

Ames - not good last week but winner in 2004 so can go well round here. Always liable to start strongly anyway, so definite trading possibilities.

Geoff Ogilvy - player who has been threatening to do some real damage on the Tour for a while now, and his late surge at the Deutsche suggests this could be his time.

Few others too, bets later.

[Beanie]

Omega

Decent lineup.

Another tourney that it looks best to keep things simple. The big players all knock well round here and have dominated the head of the leaderboard for the last few seasons...Donald, Westwood, Garcia and Casey all showing well.

The course is a mixed bag - at altitude and some of the greens look very tough to hold as the word is that they are quite firm with many run offs, another reason that the better players should really have the opportunity for their class to tell. The rough isn't particularly penal and the fairways seem quite forgiving so the longer drivers should again have some joy - accuracy off the tee not so important.

Finally, the road to the Ryder Cup Team 2008 starts here, so we could well see a concentrated effort from the usual suspects and a few others having a good year(Fasth etc) to get themselves in an strong early position for selection.

Anyway, I'll be looking at the market leaders in Casey, Westwood and Fasth, and the odd outsider(Canate could go well round here and finished strongly last week.)

[Chief77]

Gonna go pretty big on Storm to beat Clark tomorrow @4/5. Clark still hasn't regained his form and finished well down the field last week. Storm played some lovely stuff last week and will hopefully be too strong for Darren.

Also gonna put a couple of quid E/W on Wakefield @80/1 for the outright. Unlucky last week and although probably hasn't the required consistency to mount another challenge he's probably worth a couple of quid at that price.

Verdict:
Storm to beat Clark in Paddy Power mythical 2 ball @4/5
Wakefield outright @80's(very small stakes)

[Beanie]

Those two look decent there Chief...gl.

I'm spreading myself thick this week on the outrights...

BMW

Furyk @ 20
Furyk Top 5 @ 4.5
Geoff Ogilvy @ 26
Allenby @ 75
Ames @ 140
Matteson @ 200
Mayfair @ 550

Omega

Casey @ 17
Westwood @ 16.5
Fasth @ 16.5
Jimenez @ 25
Canate @ 120

Will have a peek at the 3balls in a mo.

[Chief77]

Tiger Woods @11/8: Its gonna have to be Tiger @11/8 i'm afraid. His record around this course is pretty damn good, 3 wins and two runner up finishes in 10 starts. He also has the added motivation of passing out Mickleson at the top of the Fed Ex standings. Anyway, no need to write anymore, its Tiger after all.

Lucas Glover@66/1: Glover is like a pair of well worn slippers, definitely doesn't fit Supes "has to be good looking" profile but he's solid and reliable and will rafrely let you down. Come Sunday Lucas should be there or there abouts. He had a top 20 finish here last year and he's missed just 1 cut in his last 9 events (6 top 20 finishes from that 9)

Camillo Villegas @80/1: Found a bit of form last week and looks liek he could be about to leave his mid season slump behind him. Ended up fading last week afetr a bright start but may last the distance this week.

Lucas Glover to bt Duke and Anthony in 1st Rd 3 ball @5/4: Reckon Glover will be too good for these two and 5/4 seems a fair price.

Stephen Ames to bt Mediate and Van Pelt @5/4: Ames played well on this course last year and showed signs last week that he's getting his form back.

Verdict:
Tiger Woods @11/8
Lucas Glover@66/1
Camillo Villegas @80/1

Glover to win his 1st Rd 3 ball @5/4
Ames to win his 1st Rd 3 ball @5/4

Gonna join Beanie with Ames as well. Didn't realise he'd won this before.
Good luck to us all!

[Chief77]

Tiger in 2nd place, -5 after 12 and with none of Els Singh and Furyk under par he's still 10/11. Are Paddys being unusually generous here? This is surely all over, isn't it?

[Beanie]

He is looking awfully ominous isn't he. Dropped back to -4 but a few of the leaders dropped back too. If he comes out and shoots well tomorrow there won't be much chance for me to cover, if he doesn't I think I will. The field up there does look way too flimsy...he'll only need to be in touch on the final day you would think and at this rate he'll be clear.

Casey, Westwood and Fasth got caught in the worst of the conditions in Switzerland today - will be hoping the first two can get out early tomorrow and get down to business after some good scrambling late today.

For some reason I thought you had Dredge v Clarke and Storm on the outrights Chief Still, nice winner there.

[Chief77]

Yeah very unlike Tiger to double bogey like that when on a charge. Still though you'd have to say he's gonna win it from here. As you say Beanie, no real big names ahead of him (Rose maybe but poor old Justin is pretty flakey when it comes to stringing 4 good rounds together)

My 2 3 ball picks lost yesterday with Duke outgunning Glover and Van Pelt beating Ames. On a brighter note, Villegas and Woods are both well in contention and Glovers not out of things by any means.

Today i'm gonna take Dredge to beat Ilonen in his 2 ball @5/6. Dredge obviously loves it around here(he won it last year) and had a cracking bogey free round yesterday.

In America i'm gonna give Glover and Ames a chance to redeem themselves and pick them again to win their 3 balls.