The Open - 19th July

[kompressaur]

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[kompressaur]

MONTY CUT FOR CARNOUSTIE
By Dave Tindall

Money List prices were left unchanged after this week's shock winners either side of the Atlantic but there have been several movers in the betting for the Open Championship at Carnoustie.

Graeme Storm was the surprise winner of the Open de France in Paris on Sunday while Brian Bateman, backed at 999/1 on Betfair, also shed his maiden tag by capturing the Buick Open in Michigan.

But it was the men they pipped for title glory who punters quickly latched onto ahead of the Open later this month.

Colin Montgomerie was cut to just 40/1 at Sky Bet after returning to form with a tied third in France - incredibly his first top five in over a year.

And, in the States, Justin Leonard - the forgotten man of the three-man play-off at Carnoustie in 1999 - was cut to 100/1 by Sky Bet after he finished joint runner-up at the Buick. That was the 1997 Open winner's first top five since May 2005 and first top ten since February 2006.

Monty was still 80/1 at totesport on Monday morning while Leonard backers were being offered 125/1 by Sporting Odds.

Two other players shortening up after good finishes were Thomas Bjorn and Scott Verplank.

Bjorn, a two-time Open runner-up (2000 and 2003), was cut to 66s by several firms after his third place in the Open de France while Verplank is now the same price at Sky Bet after finishing just two back at the Buick.

Tiger Woods remains a best-priced 11/4 favourite at Sporting Odds, who make Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson joint second favourites at 18/1.

Bettingzone

[ONEDUNME]

Actually it's just called "The Open"

How about backing Justin Rose and then laying him later in the tourney when he bottles it. Never a better time IMO.

Nailed on.

[kompressaur]

“British Open” redirects here. For other uses, see British Open (disambiguation).

The Open Championship is the oldest of the four major championships in men's golf. It is the only major held outside the USA and is administered by the R&A, which is the governing body of golf outside the U.S. and Mexico. The event takes place every year on one of nine historic links courses in the United Kingdom.

wikipedia

Thanks ODM. After 5 years of starting threads like this and lookig a tit it's finally been pointed out to me

[junglescot]

Well here goes my first post, it had to be golf. I like the site and enjoy reading all the news. First heard of it ages ago in the B&G in Killie, so ive enjoyed a wee chatt with the Man. Remember keep the faith!.

Anyway my tip has to be Pablo Martin, recently truned pro. Finished 17th in the US open. Sneaks under the radar as a European tour winner this year as an amateur. AND he has my old pal Alistair McLean on the Bag. Monty's ex caddie. Al has played carnoustie several times him being a decent amatuer and he caddied for monty when he made the course record at Carnoustie. I know the pressure will be big but this kid can play and if its windy he has the game to succeed. An each way bet is a must!

[kompressaur]

Wheh heh good to see you js. Just a shame that no sod's reponded to you in a week. We're slowly catching up and im sure that they'll be along soon though. I havent been out since my ..shit The Open thats what we're talking about. I cant see Pablo Martin on my new super duper odds list js. What price are we talking here?

eDIT: ps js i mentioned what you said about TDP and all the golf and cc league chat etc to folks. I felt pretty proud of the place all in. Ive been on a weeks holiday from fighting with folks on the forum Funeral thursday and then some Open golf betting sounds fun to me

EDIT: Just to remind folks that we have a free 'fun' competition going as a tester for the new ongoing competitions. Sports betting and with an emphasis on non football. all welcome.
http://www.thedailypunt.com/forum/td...-new-post.html

[traeth]

I've had a bet on the Open in the last few years , so I'm looking for some pointers , so your recommendation of Martin is on my long list, others on my initial list are listed below with my "reasoning"
Paddies , Bluesq and Boyle offer 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5 and 6

Woods ... decent price for the best in the world , recently a dad may be a distraction.
Donald ... always bet on Luke
Stenson ... didn't tiger recommend him in the U.S. Open?
Weekley ... recommended by Eddie Butler in yesterday's observer ,I don't like the bloke but this part of the article made my laugh

Boo Weekley has become a name to remember at Loch Lomond. Well, it's hard to forget. But it's not just because of his adoption for his sobriquet of one half of the Boo-Boo character from the Yogi Bear Show. It's also because Boo can play.
Earlier this year, he had his first US tour win, the Verizon Heritage at Harbour Town in South Carolina. And in cheeky style. With Ernie Els in the clubhouse looking a very likely winner, Boo proceeded to chip in at both the 17th and 18th.
Legend has it that once, with a few beers under his belt, he took on a fairground challenge back in his home state, of trying to knock out a caged orangutan.

full article here Boo springs surprise by keeping it simple | Sport | The Observer

[FC Basher]

Cheers for putting that oddschecker betting guide up Komp

[Beanie]

Watched just about every shot of the Scottish Open and the John Deere so let's see what pointers there were there:

The Market Leaders:

Mickelson - was steady all week until the 4th round - missed fairway after fairway, and his club selection(driver off the 18th twice) was questionable at best. When Havret put the pressure on it was the experienced Mickelson that looked like he lost the plot a bit, and on a more testing course this week with a higher quality field, I don't think the post wrist injury Mickelson has the confidence to compete, altho he might well have the game to get him there.

Els - Rollercoaster week for Ernie - putting strings of bogies together as easily as he did the eagles and birdies. His final round charge was spectacular though - and possibly of most interest was his accuracy with the driver - his huge whacks on 13(green on par 5 in 2) and 14(green on par 4 in 1) were the shots of the week, and if he can carry that accuracy into the Open then he has a huge advantage over some of the other more accurate players who will be hitting the ball 30-40 yards further back...seems happy with his game and one to consider.

Woods - without doubt a contender, could never count him out, but at that price he doesn't look an interesting prospect from a betting perspective. 3 Opens can't be argued with, but they were all on courses that lend themselves to low scoring - and Carnoustie certainly doesn't. Who knows, maybe the recent birth of his child will see him swinging care free and happy, but even then I think steely determination might be the order of the day this week and I at that price I'm not touching the Tiger.

Furyk - more of a back than a lay certainly - has been in sparkling form back in the US - question is whether or not he can adapt well to the demands on the links in a short space of time. His 4th in the Open last would suggest so, and he's consistent enough to keep himself together in even the toughest conditions. Very likely to be in touch after the first couple of rounds and some sort of top 10 bet might be a handy option here.

Harrington - Out of form in both recent opens and on the US Tour, and barring a huge turnaround won't get a look in here. A third consecutive british open missed cut perhaps?

Justin Rose - Hmmm - not much to go on with old Justin. Certainly playing well but has had time off this year after some good results in the US, and that could make the adjustment to Carnoustie a little harsh. Being placed in Woods group also means no place to hide if he gets off to a bad start, and so I'll probably give him a miss this week.

Vijay - Not the man for this week - missed the cut at Hoylake last year as well as at Carnoustie in '99, and if the wind gets up and he starts playing around in the sand, he's not gonna fancy this one and another missed cut is a possibility.

Donald - Special final round at Loch Lomond - and if he carries that into this week has to be a serious contender. Superbly accurate off the tees and a decent golfing brain, he could really tame the course, and has shown the necessary mentality to suggest he could close this out if in the mix duringg round 4.

Garcia - would have been in contention at the Scottish Open if it wasn't for some hopeless putting - numerous misses from 5ft or less and while his game is still generally strong, his confidence looks to be MIA, which isn't ideal for Carnoustie. If he is worrying about what's gonna happen on the greens, he might even collapse on the way to them.

Casey - Slight injury layoff means not ideal preparation for this one - and while he has shown links ability in the past, his occasional lack of accuray off the tee suggests it miht be too much to expect him to come straight back and start hitting it as sweetly as he'll need to.

Some outsider considerations to follow...

[Beanie]

Outsiders:

Scott - Top 10 last year and has been in good touch until recently. His driving might prevent any title aspirations this year but sure to go well and sit safely in the top 30. Further than that, who knows? Not me.

Stenson - widely tipped for this one and while he does have the mental game for it his driving accuracy would have to be a worry - one of the lowest %ages on the European tour and that s not what's needed round Carnoustie.

Fasth - Another widely tipped outsider who is currently on a bit of a hot streak after his 4th at the US Open, bt the questions is whether he has the consistency to keep it going this week on a tough course. He has shown form on links courses and Carnoustie in recent years, and so could be one to have onside this week.

Poulter - Played well all week at Loch Lomond, let down by some momentary lapses and unlucky breaks, but he's good mentally and very accurate off the tee which should see him post some good rounds at Carnoustie this week as he has done in the past. He's a nice price just now and regardless of whether he has the consistency to win, I'll be surprises if he isn't shorter after day 1.

Montgomerie - Hmmm...Monty Monty Monty. Collapsed in R2 at Loch Lomond and missed the cut - didn't look at all happy. He does have a game suited to this type of golf, but far from looking like someone who knows the level of expectation on him is less now than in the previous decade, he looks to be putting more pressure on himself. Fine if he's playing well, but given that he's bound to find himself in some tough spots this week however well he plays, I'm not sure he looks confident enough to maintain a challenge.

Sterne - Another widely tipped 100+ player - in superb form and played very well at Loch Lomond. Superb short game which could prove handy to get him out of trouble this week, and even if his driving will probably be a little too erratic to see him truly contend, at those odds he's undoubtedly overpriced.

Verplank - 4 top 10s in a row on the US Tour and finished top 20 back in '99. Should be fairly obvious early on whether or not he fancies this, and if so a top 10 looks a good shout here.

Lawrie - got to give him a mention - have to say he looks to be playing a lot better just now compared to the last few years. Of course, he's happy playing here just down the road from his house and I fancy him to go well again - pressure is well and truly off and he knows his way around. Not gonna repeat his heroics of '99 but even just a bet to make the cut looks a-ok.

Edberg - Another standout from Loch Lomond who's been in terrific form of late - his short game will always guarantee birdie chances and some nerveless putting should see a few converted. Another nerveless Swede to consider.

Petterson - Finally, yet another Swede Strong form in the US and a top 10 at Hoylake last year makes the current price of close to 200 look very generous. Hasn't shown the ability to really challenge during 4th rounds yet this year, but his consistency could guarantee him atleast a shot at it.

Back in a bit with me bets.

[Beanie]

Not all matched yet:

To Win:

Els @ 14
Donald @ 36
Fasth @ 44
Poulter @ 80
Verplank @ 110

Top 10:

Furyk @ 3.05
Verplank @ 8.60
Pettersson @ 12.50
Edberg @ 18.00
Sterne @ 8.80
Lay Woods @ 1.47

To Make the Cut:

(Probably)

Lay Harrington @ ?
Lay Singh @ ?
Lawrie @

Matchbets/3balls etc:

To follow when the markets become a little more liquid, although Furyk v Harrington at almost evens looks like an absolute stonker at the moment.

[k33nan]

Sorry but its the tried and tested for me big four v the field @ 2.75 is a cracking bet!

reckon woods or els will take it!

[Beanie]

My cut bets(unmatched as yet):

Lay Vijay @ 1.23
Lay Tiger @ 1.04
Lay Harrington @ 1.29
Lawrie @ 2.40

[traeth]

After reading your posts beanie and k3nan ,was expecting mrm to post as well , here are my Open bets , minimal stake for interest .Will have a bigger bet after the cut and watch some of the golf.

Donald e.w. 1,2,3,4,5,6
Fasth e.w. 1,2,3,4,5,6
Stenson e.w. 1,2,3,4,5,6
Leonard e.w. 1,2,3,4,5,6
Weekley e.w. 1,2,3,4,5,6
Woods win at a stake to cover all the bets

[FC Basher]

Good Work Beanie

My bets
Mickleson, He's my idea of the winner
Donald - Mentioned by Beanie
Weekley - Mentioned by Traeth

Mickleson to win his 1st round 3 ball

The 2 bets below im doing but I wouldnt advise either.
C.Howell - Top American
D.Howell - Top Brit/Ire