The Open - 19th July

[mrmuzeman]

Im only looking at players who are under par and Jimenez at 20/1 I like so ill have some of that.

Andres Romero is teeing off with fellow Argentinian Angel Cabrera so they should both have good rounds I think. Both -1 and Romero is a quite large 85/1 so ill chance that for a wee nip as well as Jimenez.

[kompressaur]

any inrunning bets folks can suggest? Im looking for a bit of interest as i'm fair enjoying this. What about that put from singh. Cracking. What a buzz.

so can anyone recommend anything to me to aid an interest for the rest of today's play? thanks

[Beanie]

Fairly shoddy couple of days as Garcia stretches away and a few fancies show some form but can't sustain it. Els could still win and is prob the most likely of the pack at -3, but that's nothing more than a small outside chance now, don't think Garcia will blow it. Furyk and Edberg could nick top 10 spots, Rose could yet beat Singh, and I could do with a good 2 out the 3 coming off.

Look to be some decent 2 ball prices for tomorrow...gonna have a proper look just now.

[Winrew]

Els @ 16/1 with Bet365
Anyone bet on folk to win without ?

As in ......Open Championship w/o Garcia & Stricker Betting Odds

Els @ 11/2
Harrington @ 7/1
Woods @ 7/1

[Quandram]

Just looking at the 2 balls... initial thoughts... could be bobbins

Forsyth bt Lehman @ 2.25 - Lehmans been consistent with 3 rounds of 73 or 74 and i see no reason not to expect the same again. Forsyth has had 2 very decent rounds and 1 shocker but even in yesterdays festival of horror he pulls a birdie at the 18th which puts him in a pretty small group for this week. That should have lifted his morale a bit and now he's away from the busniess end maybe he'll relax in to a decent round again.

Fully expect Els to beat Broadhurst as he will hopefully not triple bogey the 6th this time but @ 1.5 i'd fancy sticking it in with something else... the question is what?

Woods would seem likely but i just wonder if he would attempt to try too hard. Something's clearly not right with him but he might well still have enough to see off Rich Beem on the final day. That could be the double but it doesn't fill me with joy. Singh is another possibility as the wheels started to come off Choi's tank today. Ian Poulter as well as he was on a cracking round till the last 4 holes.

Don't really see why Jiminez is 2nd favourite to Weir and if he can dodge the double bogie that took a bite out of his round then i think that could be another for me.

ramblings end

[Beanie]

Harrington could be the value in that market - Els is most likely of the -3s to win because he is prob the only one who could realistically go out and shoot a -6 tomorrow, but he seems a bit hot and cold at the mo so it would either be a stonking round or something like +1, whereas Harrington has looked really steady this week - he's not about to go out and shoot 67 or better I don't think but he is saving pars superbly, creating quite a few birdie chances and should knock out a safe -1 to -3 tomorrow which would prob make that 7/1 a bit big.

Mmmm ok final day 2balls - looking for inexperienced but talented players who don't get these chances too often vs experienced, big reputation players who have lost interest, brit players down the list vs rotw players(support round the course will keep them going), and consistent players vs up and down players(who could be affected once definately out of the hunt for the big places. Weather looks ok for tomorrow. Not all of these matched.

Harrington v Cink @ 1.96 - Harrington is playing really well this week, swinging nicely and getting himself out of trouble consistently well. But for a day 2 blip on 18 he's been steady, and seems to be enjoying himself again, and with the crowds supporting him and a good finish in prospect he should smile his way round to a good score today.

Broadhurst v Els @ 3.40 - Price just seems a touch big here. The way I see it Broadhurst should shoot another slow, steady round, probably around -1 as he always does. Els will shoot either something like a -5 or a +1 - all depends on how well he starts, as he always seems to maintain momentum recently, regardless of whether its positive or negative, continuing to miss fairways if he starts to do so, or continuing to drain 20 foot putts if he drops a few. Whatever, I don't see his round being steady and since he could go either way I'll take Broadhurst there.

Jimenez v Weir @ 2.30 - Mmm again the Euro golfers should get the support round the course today - Jimenez has been off form coming into this but has been swinging well this week, and again seems to be enjoying his week. I always think that's important in the final round when players can either put themselves under too much pressure or allow a couple of bad holes to get to them, and either way I don't think MAJ should be the underdog in this one.

JJ Henry v Marcus Brier @ 2.02 - Brier has had a great week but he has been slightly erratic, lurching from an opening 68 to a 75 and then back to 70, while JJ has shot fairly uneventful(barring his triple today) rounds of 71 71 and 70. I don't see any reason why he can't go out and repeat, and I'm happy with odds against that Brier won't sustain his good run this week.

Westwood v Goosen @ 2.20 - Westwood is another that is really enjoying his week, playing well, and getting loads of support from the gallery. Goosen on the other hand has smiled about once, and if he's lingering in mid table after a few holes there's a big chance he could get disinterested given that he's more used to being in the limelight at the top. His bogey-bogey-bogey finish yesterday might just hint at things to come.

Poulter v WJ Lee @ 1.66 - Poulter was v angry at finishing double bogey bogey bogey and undoing all the good work of his front 9 yesterday, and is desparate for a good finish. He'll be 100% concentrated from first tee to last and I think he'll repeat yesterday's performance minus a few of the mistakes at the end.

[Beanie]

Nice spot on Forsyth too pydoom - fits the criteria nicely. Lehman should just be going through the motions today...he's done this dozens of times before and whether he finishes T50 as opposed to T58 is of no great importance. On the other hand Forsyth has the adrenaline of playing infront of a home crowd, as well as the need to prove something after yesterday.

[Quandram]

Just a point of order but if i was called pydoom i'd definitely spell it piedoom

[Beanie]

Ah shit, it's your own fault really since you haven't been around much lately. Must be something to do with similar avatars, yes that must be it. Lemme go check...oh, Stewie from FG and your wee fella with the B on his belly(who is that by the way?) Yep, separated at birth.

Ah bugger it, let's just forget the whole thing. Please accept my apologies, and nice spot on Forsyth Sipu

[mrmuzeman]

Im gona chance Stricker @ 11/2. Him and Garcia go off as the final pairing and if Stricker picks up a shot, Garcia drops a shot somewhere in the front 9, theres only 1 in it and anything can happen then. Who knows how the pressure might affect Garcia on the final day as well as hes not been in this position before and seen it through.

Of course it could just as easily go the other way, Garcia picks up a shot, Stricker drops and then theres a 5 gap and it looks sealed for Garcia but thats the risk you take. I think at 11/2 it could have legs, I was expecting more like 7/2 or 4/1, at 5/1+ ill chance it. I was really impressed by Strickers round yesterday which is influencing my decisions obviously.

[mrmuzeman]

Tbh I think Garcia is overpriced a bit as well still (not that im gona back it as well as Stricker of course!). 4/6 on betfair after commish, he should be 1/2 max I think. I think both Garcia and Stricker are overpriced a bit. My book would be something like

1/2 Garcia
7/2 Stricker
9/1 bar

Itd be a big surprise to me if anyone but Garcia or Stricker won for me. Going by betfairs book they reckon there is a about a 3/1 chance of someone else winning it which is way too large I think hence why the top 2 are good value.

[Quandram]

Originally Posted by Beanie

(who is that by the way?)

For the love of god tell me you are joking! You can't recognise the mighty Batfink?!

I actually saw one of the cartoons 2 months back for the first time in about 15 years. Definitely something best appreciated when you have no concept of animation, scripting, humour or repettition.

[mrmuzeman]

I saw Batfink this very morning. Karates an idiot and Hugo A-Go-Go is a shit villain with an annoying voice but Batfink himself is awesome

[Quandram]

I've been thinking about backing Garcia because the price seems generous... i totally ignored him this year because he seems to flatter to decieve but i've been very impressed by his play. A lot of the pundits keep mentioning what he learnt from being destoyed by Woods in final round last year and whether you can pin it all on that or not i think we'll see him carry it through.

I agree Muse that Stricker is the only one who can catch him this side of someone sticking a water magnet in his ball. I'm tending to go the otherway about Strickers round yesterday in that it whilst it was very impressive you don't often see people outside the top few in the world pluck out back to back great rounds.

[Wayne]

Originally Posted by Winrew

Els @ 16/1 with Bet365
Anyone bet on folk to win without ?

As in ......Open Championship w/o Garcia & Stricker Betting Odds

Els @ 11/2
Harrington @ 7/1
Woods @ 7/1

Think that's great odds on Els. Considering he hit a triple bogey on one hole yesterday, to hit a round of 68 was fantastic. And if memory serves me right, he finished strongly last week at the Scottish Open so I'd expect the same again today. Can't see him winning it outright though - 6 shots is just too much to make up with the way Garcia is playing.

Managed to get on Garcia with a fairly hefty bet at Evens yesterday half way round his 3rd round as he just looked so comfortable with the way he was playing. I don't see Stricker making up 3 shots on him today so feeling fairly comfortable about that one.