Ladbrokes Poker Million V

[stereoman]

Well High Stakes Poker is over but for the next 15 weeks, there'll be this (I don't know whether to or ).

All the preliminary heats have already been filmed but for the first time the semi-finals as well as the final will be LIVE on December 13th, 14th (the semi-finals) and 15th (the final).

Anyone watch the celebrity qualifier on Sky Sports 2? What a laugh that was. Weak-tight play with Austin Healey being a luckbox as well as being able to put the pressure on against Leilani, Tim Lovejoy and Barry Hearn's trio of Steve Davis, Phil Taylor and Jimmy White.

77 players are now 72 players in a 6-seat shootout format as per usual.

http://poker.ladbrokes.com/pmv/index.php?pg=15

Horrible new set. Winner gets $1.2 million. :loon

[mrmuzeman]

I presume Tony Jones is in it since he won it last year? My fairly poor poker claim to fame is doubling through him in the ME on the Laddies cruise then outlasting him even though he was chipleader after the first hour.

The play today was reasonably awful but it was the celeb round. Their are some really good players in this so it should be reasonable quality. Whats the structures like though?

[mrmuzeman]

I have to confess I didnt click on the link but now I have I see he is in it. Quite funny looking through the list actually cos theres looooads of people who were on the cruise who I saw or met. No suprise really since they were both Ladbrokes though I guess

I see Mafews is on next week and hes got Ram Vaswani and Surinder Sunar on his table, nice draw Mafews I already know what happens there but I shant say. Jez will have commented on mafews in his cruise report if youve read it. Young high stakes scottish player, loaded the bases on the BJ table onboard.

LOL RIVVVER is in it Jez will remember him, quite a crazy guy tbh. His real names Micheal Jackson as well Hes In Donnochea O Deas heat.

MRGERRARD the guy who bubbled in my online cruise qualifier in 9th place OUCH

Oh dear Roy Brindley and Helen Chamberlain on the same table, what price she badbeats him out donking off all the chips with a mere flush draw!

[stereoman]

Blind structures? They started off on 1,000-2,000 but I'm not too sure if it's half-hour levels and what the increases were. Repeat's on in less than 90 minutes over on Sky Sports 1.

[stereoman]

The blinds structure is seemingly stupid (not as stupid as WPT final tables though).

What can you say about the first heat!? Can't really commend anything. Ram did what he was supposed to (and for once he got the result he wanted) and the last two hands were almost pure Hollywood.

[stereoman]

I really don't know what Ladbrokes are up to...four consecutive nights, three of them live (Wednesday, Thursday, Friday) on Sky Sports 2 in mid-December!?

I really don't understand the cloak of secrecy much like William Hill have with their Grand Prix event as to who won the heats (filmed in June but only shown now!). Last year the semi-finals were shown in two staggered weeks with the final three days after the broadcast of the delayed second semi-final.

Last year I posted a really, really long scattershot article over on the PL and somehow nailed a straight forecast as well as various bets on who'd be out first as well as match-bets using a maximum 100pts system. Unfortunately for me it was after-eventing because Inside Edge didn't want any of it (the bastards!).

Bookies won't be able to price this up inside 24 hours and one really can't assess the 'form' with any sense of accuracy. Ladbrokes...YOU FUCKED UP!! AGAIN!!

The two semi-final line-ups for fans of live poker on Wednesday and Thursday night seem blooming random. The EPG put up three names each and leave the other three blank...

SEMI-FINAL ONE:

* Andreas Høivold (heat four) Norway
* Michael Jackson (heat five) Northern Ireland
* Ram Vaswani (heat one) England

SEMI-FINAL TWO:

* Ambjørn Haga (heat three) Norway
* Mel Judah (heat six) England
* Demergis Stefanos (heat two) Greece

The other heat winners were:

* Robert Glen (heat eleven) England
* Mats Jungsand (heat ten) Sweden
* Claus Marcussen (heat eight) Denmark
* Tomas Martinsson (heat seven) Sweden
* Martin Smyth (heat nine) Northern Ireland

..plus tonight's winner of heat twelve.

Won't be particularly fair if they put the two Norn Irons together or the two Swedes together but hey, that's the luck of the draw and there's at least three English still left (well if you include Mel Judah it's at least three).

[stereoman]

Anybody watch that first live semi-final gone by? Very annoyed. Work up to a blackout at around 6:30pm here which lasted for around an hour an a half and missed the first ten minutes and tuned in at around 8:10pm.

These were the odds beforehand:














Result from Wednesday's semi-final:

QF: Andreas Høivold 220,000 chips
QF: Rajesh Modha 212,000 chips
QF: Claus Marcussen 168,000 chips
4th: Tomas Martinsson
5th: Michael Jackson
6th: Ram Vaswani

Ladbrokes haven't updated their outright odds but Stan James are willing to price it up:



Wasn't particularly impressed in the first semi-final by Marcussen who merely timed his moves right, Høivold was up, down then up again (easily the most impressive) and Modha was right jammy.

Could be a final of mostly unknowns as Mel Judah is not that much of a favourite in what's essentially a SNG. I like Martin Smyth's chances but he could easily fall by the wayside pretty quickly like Ram Vaswani did. The Greek guy's a bit like Rajesh Modha in that he is willing to gamble but the price of 6/4 just to qualify is crap. The others seem a bit like rocks like Claus Marcussen...it'll depend who gets their timing right.

[stereoman]

Ladbrokes/SJ got the first three to qualify right. Mel Judah was lucky that Martin Smyth had a rush of blood to the head (Martin trying to bully pocket twos when Judah's holding pocket jacks!?) in order to build his big stack.

Some bizarre moves from Ambjorn Haga meant he got knocked out first. Stefanos Demergis was down then shoves all-in with half-a-hand every few rounds and nobody was willing to call him until towards the end. Robert Glen went all-in with ace high and a nine kicker pre-flop and got called by Mats Jungsand with JTo.

Martin Smyth's lucky to still be there as is Mats Jungsand.

Result from Thursday's semi-final:

QF: Mel Judah 391,000 chips
QF: Martin Smyth 113,000 chips
QF: Mats Jungsand 96,000 chips
4th: Stefanos Demergis
5th: Robert Glen
6th: Ambjorn Haga

Stan James quicker out of the blocks more than anybody else in regards outright odds.



Chip counts for the final:

Mel Judah 391,000 chips
Andreas Høivold 220,000 chips
Rajesh Modha 212,000 chips
Claus Marcussen 168,000 chips
Martin Smyth 113,000 chips
Mats Jungsand 96,000 chips

EDIT: Oh wait. Bet Direct have been watching the poker as well and are offering slightly better prices on the first two heading the market:

Judah, Mel (391,000 chips) 13/8
Hoivold, Andreas (220,000 chips) 4/1
Marcussen, Claus (168,000 chips) 5/1
Modha, Rajesh (212,000 chips) 5/1
Smyth, Martin (113,000 chips) 6/1
Jungsand, Mats (96,000 chips) 10/1

Much of what I said about last year's final over on the PL can easily be adapted for this year's final.

[Colbro]

I'm going to have a few quid on Mats Jungsand at 13.00 on betfair.

He showed his intent last night raising with 5,7os on the very first hand and seemed a bit unfortunate with his seat position and his plays always running into hands.
Mel Judah is deserved favourite given his record but I'm not sure this format favours his game and he looked out of sorts at times yesterday.
Hoivold will play a lot of hands but his weakness could be after raising he will not lay down a hand. He got caught yesterday playing a KJ which most would have folded.

Jungsand may well be the short stack but I can see him picking up pots while the blinds are low which could bring him much closer to the field later on in the game and maybe to a price worth laying.

[Colbro]

He is out in 5th place.

Lasted into blind level three and basically gave a good showing of himself. Gave me a great run for my money for a 12-1 shot.

[stereoman]

What a final. I couldn't have predicted that. I wanted to put money on Rajesh Modha but didn't think he had it in him. He got the breaks (pair of kings against Mel Judah's AKo) and when he was up against Claus Marcussen heads-up he just turned teh aggression on (helped he had the cards though).

Rajesh Modha was the 22/1 outsider as well!

[stereoman]

Hmmm. Ladbrokes want to reformat Poker Million and rival the WSOP!? It'll never work! Laddies though are investing £3 million into it...it'll need more than that surely?

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/ar...416938,00.html

[stereoman]

The live final for Poker Million VI is tonight (I can't be bothered to start a new thread) and here are the chip-counts for tonight:

Howard Lederer: 306,000
Martin Smyth: 254,000
Julian Gardner: 225,000
Joe Beevers: 202,000
Liam Flood: 121,000
Ian Cox: 92,000

Table draw:

Seat 1: Joe Beevers
Seat 2: Liam Flood
Seat 3: Julian Gardner
Seat 4: Ian Cox
Seat 5: Howard Lederer
Seat 6: Martin Smyth

The odds and sods from Stan James and the official sponsors, Ladbrokes:




Match-betting odds (Ladbrokes' odds first, Stan James' odds in brackets)

* Howard Lederer 4/5 vs Martin Smyth 'evens'
* Julian Gardner 4/5 (5/6) vs Joe Beevers 'evens' (10/11)
* Liam Flood 4/5 (5/6) vs Ian Cox 'evens' (10/11)
* Howard Lederer 4/5 vs Julian Gardner 'evens'
* Martin Smyth 8/11 vs Joe Beevers 11/10
* Joe Beevers 8/11 vs Liam Flood 11/10

Not helpful statistic of the day: Tony Jones and Rajesh Modha were both third in chips back in 2005 and 2006 (Donnacha O'Dea was the chip-leader back in 2004).

=============

Incredibly tough to predict and more so than last year's one. If last year showed anything it's that a fairly sizeable chip-lead meant nothing. The blinds are 2,000/4,000 at the beginning so the only two who should be worried at the first level are Ian Cox and Liam Flood.

I suppose there's some sort of a weird argument to made that Howard Lederer could easily win this and is rightfully the favourite.

No bet but I am watching this as it happens just for the fook of it.

[stereoman]

The 16/1 shot comes in with Joe Beevers winning it and Marty Smyth in 2nd.

Julian Gardner 3rd, Liam Flood 4th, Howard Lederer 5th and Ian Cox 6th.

[DAN DAN]

Just watching the re run just now, poor Liam Flood feel sorry for the guy.

Calls the 22 all-in with his 66, great reading only for a 2 to come on the flop.

Out in the next hand hitting nothing.