An Exercise in Hand Reading

[Jezza]

Hi guys.

Hand reading is the key skill in cash games, and all deep stack NL. Its basically what seperates the long term winners from losers once you get to 2/4 NL and above, the better you are at it, the better you do.

For me I try to work on this all the time, its a skill you can always improve on, and I have a long way to go yet. I was going through some very old hands on my PT database and I came across this old one. When I look back on it now this hand was kind of a big turning point for me, it was the first time i truly believed I could see through his cards . Anyway im going to post the hand now and anyone who fancies testing themselves on some hand reading homework (lol) can post what they think my opponent in this hand has. The most important thing I would like to see tho is WHY you think he has this. Just saying "fold he has a monster" or "go all in he has slowplayed AK" is no good. If you want to get good at hand reading you must exercise logical deduction. Therefore if you post up he has X hand id like to see your reasoning on this from his play preflop, on the flop, on the turn and on the river etc.

Anyway this hand is over 4 years old I think, its from 50c 1 dollar NL, cash game.

Seat 1: captainT ($82 in chips)
Seat 2: Kharybdis ($124 in chips)
Seat 3: royalnutz ($47.50 in chips)
Seat 4: Dormouse ($136.75 in chips)
Seat 5: Nomizz ($69.25 in chips)
Seat 6: Cowardly sits out
Seat 7: ElMuerte ($29.25 in chips)
Seat 8: Ie_cooer ($137.75 in chips)
Seat 9: redsfan ($111 in chips)
Seat 10: SuperJez ($84.25 in chips)
ElMuerte: posts big blind $1
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to SuperJez [3h 3c]
Ie_cooer: folds
redsfan: folds
SuperJez: calls $1
captainT: folds
Kharybdis: calls $1
royalnutz: calls $1
Dormouse: raises to $5
Nomizz: folds
ElMuerte: folds
SuperJez: calls $4
Kharybdis: calls $4
royalnutz: folds
----- FLOP ----- [Kd 2s Jh]
SuperJez: checks
Kharybdis: checks
Dormouse: checks
----- TURN ----- [Kd 2s Jh][Kc]
SuperJez: checks
Kharybdis: checks
Dormouse: checks
----- RIVER ----- [Kd 2s Jh Kc][3d]
SuperJez: bets $17
Kharybdis: folds
Dormouse: raises to $66

[Scottieboy08]

OK Jez, I'm putting him on JJ and am folding on the river. The raise pre-flop says to me that Dormouse wants to narrow the field down to 1 (at a push 2) players going to the flop. At this point, I would put the player on either a big pair, AK or maybe AQs (if they're aggressive)

OK, on the flop, AQ has missed and isn't the greatest board for either QQ or TT so Dormouse may have decided to take a free card.... or something else has happened to the strength their hand....

Three checks on the turn and that K may give a clue to what Dormouse has. AK would have bet the flop i'm pretty sure so trip K is unlikely. AA would have also bet the flop so I think we can rule that out as well. A second check by Dormouse tells me that he has either nothing or a MONSTER. With your lonely 33 at the moment, it seems an easy check/fold upto now.

But wait, a 3 on the end fills you up! You bet for value, but now Dormouse comes out firing. Two hands now enter my mind, KK and JJ. Either is possible, but I'm just slightly going for JJ due to it being more feasable than quad K.

How close am I Jez?

Edit: A check on the flop is also slightly safer due to the rainbow board and the texture of it

[Quandram]

I'm starting to embark on an effort to improve my poker theory as it need work at the moment so i'll take a stab at this and see how much of a tit i make myself look.

I'm torn between 2 hands to put him on. AK or J's. This is a problem because one of them has you beat and the other doesn't.

I think he must have something to raise like that on the river (unless he thinks your a chancer trying to steal the pot). The pre-flop suggests a decent starting hand which is why i'm with AK and J's and ruling out the 2's. A's are handy but losing to any K, Q's the same.

I think he's checking the flop praying for an A to come, make someone else a hand and get paid off. If he bets the flop after the pre-flop raise i think it scares the other players off.

The Turn card is likely both heaven and hell. Nails on his hand but doesn't help anyone who didn't already like the flop. Again i think the check and pray for the A. Danget being that the Q or 10 could make someone a straight (the A shouldn't as Q,10 i imagine is folded by now).

The river bet is curious to me simply because it doesn't stick you all-in (so my maths tells me). If he is that confident of winning why not take you for the last few $'s?

AK is now in trouble from KJ, K2 and K3. None of those too likely to be in this pot after the pre-flop (i've done it with KJ before largely to abuse from others).

I say he has AK and you call and take his money. J's is a tooth dryer and you suck it up and move on. K's.... what can you do. If it's K's i think he takes all your money though not leaving you in the last few $'s

Please rip that to shreads, i need to learn

[FC Basher]

Ok the raisers in late position and raises possible A- high kicker or pockets.Them check checks would make me believe he's chasing you raise on the river so hes got you on 2 pairs he raises you as he has 2 higher pairs hes got A-J so now he has Kings and Jacks

[cains]

I have looked the hand through now a few times.. and a few things got me thinking..

This is 0,5/1$ NL game..
Dormouse has $136.75

So he is a winning player at this table...

Either he is not scared at all over the flop, or the K on the flop scared him..

His bet on the river does not put you all in... That is a clear sign for me that he is not affraid of beeing called...
Chances he has KK = SLIM
Chances he has JJ = SMALL
Chances he has AA = SLIM (because so many was ready to pay the 1$ PF, problably at least 1 of them had an A)
Chances he has AK or QQ and has deceided that you didnt have a K, and dont put you on that small a pair with the PF raise he put in is problably the best i can see atm....

[kompressaur]

Same here George A great read from what i can make out. Weighing everything up is whats making poker interesting to me. The cards are almost secondary to it all. No thats not right

Most of my play is on mixing it up a bit at the moment. You just don't know what i've i've got. there is no rhyme or reason to my play

[kompressaur]

Oh fcuk i better go look through the hand too and read it

[kompressaur]

ah a nice cheap walk to the flop Jezza i like it. I suppose there was nothing else you could do when you were getting in so lightly. The 3 you were playing for you got and a ....nah i dont really know do i. I'll shut up. Im just all pokered up. I agree with Scottie here so i must have picked up something

OK Jez, I'm putting him on JJ and am folding on the river. The raise pre-flop says to me that Dormouse wants to narrow the field down to 1 (at a push 2) players going to the flop. At this point, I would put the player on either a big pair, AK or maybe AQs (if they're aggressive)

[christianu]

You cant rule out pocket kings either.

KK or JJ plays it the same, bad slowplaying that a lot of players use, so they are some obvious hands, if he has JJ he's more likely to bet the turn and Kings is less likely too cos nobody likes to bet quads until the overbetting river stage.

He's raised pre flop to $5 and checked the turn which if he was on a bluff, he wouldnt do because it was checked to him, we have to rule any bluff out here obv.

Your losing to JJ KK and beating AK or AA

This might be a weird way of playing AA although considering his raise pre flop and him having aces he would surely bet the flop, almost certainly.

AK might not bet that flop if he is trying to be clever, but checking the turn as well to continue that slowplay is again bad play but slightly possible.

You can never be certain what he has but given the choice between KK JJ AA AK or nothing id go KK

JJ and KK make the most sense so in that respect its a fold

QQ just poppped into my head then, he might not believe anyone has a king because it was checked twice, so his re raise on the river with what he believes to be the best hand? Nah he would bet the turn wouldnt he? Not let an ace fall or summat else, and the raise is too big on the river for QQ.

Your average player plays KK this way.

[christianu]

Although he could be raising with a smaller pocket pair like 7's 8's etc.. and trying to steal it on the river.

There are so many possibilties, i cant disagree with a call or fold here.

[Scottieboy08]

Originally Posted by christianu

You cant rule out pocket kings either.

I didn't Chris, its later on in my post mate.

[christianu]

Nooo you didnt, you edited it, you sneaky mofo

[Scottieboy08]

Behave yourself son :loon

[christianu]

Nah dont know how i missed it, musta raced through the end of your post.

[Doc]

JJ or AK, and I'd be using my observations at the table to decide. Many players won't raise pre-flop with JJ and similarly others will flat call with AK, especially with position. A good player IMO in this situation would raise with either, and probably by a similar amount. With position, 2 callers isn't a disaster with JJ, but you'd prefer none or 1. Similar with AK.

Again, I think a good player should bet the flop. There aren't any flush draws, but an ace, queen, ten or 9 puts some likely straights out there. Also, against two players he has to reckon he is likely up against a pair. Being scared on the flop (e.g. QQ being wary of a King) doesn't seem too likely as he has position and you've both checked. A continuation bet will take this pot down most times.

The check on the turn screams that he has nothing or has something strong - you've both shown no strength so any mediocre hand has to try and take the pot now.

You bet the pot on the river and he raises big, but not all-in. If he was scared of a king while holding QQ etc, this play makes no sense. So he isn't scared. The three couldn't help him - only one left in the deck and he certainly wasn't playing K3. He similarly wasn't playing KJ.
It is a bad move with AK as you could credibly have JJ or 33 (as you do). KJ is also a possible holding for you.

He has a bigger than average stack, so I'll assume he is better than average. JJ it is.