An Exercise in Hand Reading

[christianu]

Yeah i migght have got stacked here in the heat of the moment. Probably would have called, maybe folded, given time to think i fold.

[aliensyndm]

No idea what you mean muze, please explain

[Colbro]

I and other have typed up some good stuff on how we like to play JJ in full ring cash games mate. Itll be down in the poker page depths somewhere. The short answer is no id limp along.

Glad you said that Muse - I would too.

It's why I said KK rather than JJ

Not that it makes much difference th the thread off Course

[Doc]

I'll (cheekily!) answer your question Colbro!

I would raise more with JJ here. The problem with a raise of $5 is that if one person calls you then the next is getting over 3-1 call etc. I'd be making it $6 or $7 - so I really know they're serious if they call. Alternatively a 'sweetener' raise is reasonable IMO - maybe to $2 or $3, but then you're relying on playing very well and/or hitting your set. I'd be quite happy to take the money already in the pot so I'd incline for the bigger raise.

Disagree about the AJ above Jez - makes sense (some!) on the flop and on the turn, but it would be a very brave/foolish call on the river. Realistically what hand could someone have to bet the pot on that river when they've a good chance of taking it down via checking with a mediocre hand. You have to think it is a King looking for a check raise on the turn, KJ, 22 or 33. Will TT or the lower pairs bet this much - from their point of view what hand that raises pre-flop can realistically call them here?
Also I'm skeptical that any/many decent NL players will raise 3 limpers with AJ - it can't stand a re-raise and there is a decent chance they're already behind to AQ or AK (behind them)

[Jezza]

Hi Doc,

I agree AJ is impossible for him to have at the end. However It IS possible up until the river, unlikely as it is. It did not even cross my mind until it was mentioned in this thread before. I have to concede tho that it is possible for him to have, certainly preflop and on the flop.

With Jacks ColBro you have to be careful. If I am in early position I am wary of coming in for a raise. Being OOP is always a major disadvantage especially with a hand as weak as JJ unimproved. If you are against good players you can find yourself in a lot of marginal and tough spots. It is a much better hand to raise with on the button or near the back (I am talking full ring 10H tables here, short handed it is pretty much an automatic raise every time, and probably reraise). However if you are a good hand reader, or at least have the ability to get away from a good hand if you think you are beaten then there is every reason to raise with Jacks. Just be careful with marginal boards.

Jez

[Doc]

Jez I'd agree that AJ is very possible, even likely if there weren't so many limpers. A raise of that size with that many limpers though is poor play with AJ IMO - what do you think?

[Jezza]

I dunno Doc. Its not something I would so unless I was feeling very frisky . I dont suppose it is the worst play if you are a good hand reader but I would only like it on the button really. Its horrid OOP in a cash game no matter how good you are.


Jez

[Jezza]

Ok I am going to continue this thread with more hands. I wont just be using hands ive played. Ill take some ones from some really big online games, like 300/600NL and post them up for us to try and crack open later on. However here is one from a HU match I JUST played. Its AA on the button for the daily punt but what does he have? Same applies again, although everyone tries different ways of playing AA (especially HU) all the time, this is not so much a "what would you have done thread" its a "what do you put him on and why" thread.

Holdem No Limit $2/$4
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:13] : Hand Start.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:13] : Seat 5 : BBDefendah has $400
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:13] : Seat 6 : David W has $436
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:13] : BBDefendah is the dealer.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:14] : BBDefendah posted small blind.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:14] : David W posted big blind.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:14] : Game started with 2 players.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:14] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:14] : Seat 5 : BBDefendah has Ac As
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:17] : BBDefendah called $2 and raised $8
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:18] : David W called $8
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:19] : Dealing flop.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:19] : Board cards [8s 7d 4d]
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:21] : David W checked.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:24] : BBDefendah bet $23
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:25] : David W called $23
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:26] : Dealing turn.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:26] : Board cards [8s 7d 4d 9h]
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:28] : David W checked.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:31] : BBDefendah bet $70
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:35] : David W called $70 and raised $70
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:39] : BBDefendah called $70
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:39] : Dealing river.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:39] : Board cards [8s 7d 4d 9h 7s]
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:44] : David W bet $64

[Colbro]

Could be absolutely anything but I'll plump for 99

Strong enough to call your large raise pre flop and with no overcards on the flop strong enough to call. The turn helps to make his set but he could be worried about you having J10 hence the re raise. The river makes his house so the curious size bet hoping you call.

Having said that though I don't see how you can fold here as so many other hands could fit into this pattern

[DAN DAN]

I have him on KK, the reason I think this is:

He has raised pre-flop.
He checks flop so I think he has hit something or else surely he would follow up his original raise with another to represent he has hit?
He checks as he's fairly sure he's winning.
The other K seals it and he's hoping for someone to bet on the river.

edit, just reading the end now and that answer was for the first hand. Wrong as it turns out.

[Jezza]

I guess your talking about the 1st hand still Dan Dan (I just posted up a 2nd one a min) ago. Your right about the 1st one - he either has Jacks full or four Kings


Jez

[Doc]

98 in the second hand - maybe suited. 87 is another possibility.

It is heads up and your raise is small enough to call with a large number of hands - anything with reasonable potential, which connectors (esp suited) certainly have.

he has made top pair on the flop and is quite possibly ahead, but can't fall in love with the hand too much just yet.

The turn is perfect for him - bar you making trips or drawing out to a flush (unlikely) or an even more unlikely straight, he looks like winning. He raises enough to test the waters and show you mean business, but he can still get away if you move in. Also if the board pairs on the end he has less invested if he is worried about an overpair.

On the river he is either fishing for a call or making a blocking bet. I'm going for the latter and putting him on 98

[DAN DAN]

Originally Posted by Jezza

Holdem No Limit $2/$4
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:13] : Hand Start.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:13] : Seat 5 : BBDefendah has $400
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:13] : Seat 6 : David W has $436
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:13] : BBDefendah is the dealer.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:14] : BBDefendah posted small blind.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:14] : David W posted big blind.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:14] : Game started with 2 players.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:14] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:14] : Seat 5 : BBDefendah has Ac As
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:17] : BBDefendah called $2 and raised $8
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:18] : David W called $8
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:19] : Dealing flop.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:19] : Board cards [8s 7d 4d]
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:21] : David W checked.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:24] : BBDefendah bet $23
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:25] : David W called $23
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:26] : Dealing turn.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:26] : Board cards [8s 7d 4d 9h]
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:28] : David W checked.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:31] : BBDefendah bet $70
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:35] : David W called $70 and raised $70
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:39] : BBDefendah called $70
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:39] : Dealing river.
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:39] : Board cards [8s 7d 4d 9h 7s]
[Feb 14 03:31 pm:44] : David W bet $64

Firstly I have put him on 10,J maybe even diamonds. He calls chasing straight and flush. Raises on the turn as he has hit his straight.
I see him feeling possibly beaten but not sure on the river by a FH. Making a small bet believing you may have 99. Not 88 as you would not have bet as much with trip 8's on the flop.

[christianu]

He has two pair on the turn, youve called his min raise and made a better two pair on the river and is that some sort of gay stop bet from him on the river?

It'd work though because Id just call incase He did have better than I imagined although if your going to put your money where your mouth is then you could stick in a raise.

89 87 are the hands I would put him on here, I would put him on bigger but that river bet seems weak unless he isn't an agressive better hence the min raise on the turn.

Id call, and I may have folded on the turn, maybe.

Thats my first quick reaction.

[wazik]

Tricky this as its heads up (not something I dabble in very often) but I am gonna have a go.

While he could have a big pair or AK something along those lines hes prolly reraising preflop? A lot depends on how you have both been playing up till now but we dont know that so I'll go with what we have. If he has J10 (diamonds or not) then surely the flop is a good time to check raise if not lead at it although check calling isnt bad either.

If he figures you for an overpair then there arent many better scare cards than that turn to throw in the cheeky mini-raise. I think hes holding 56 and has you totally crippled, 78 or possibly 89. Of course he could have almost anything from a busted flush draw to a set thats now a fh. I think the key is the turn when he mini-raises I think he has at least 2 pair here and possibly the set and knows when you just call that hes ahead. I am folding.


Regarding the 1st hand you posted up and what Muze said about studying the hand in detail, if I had played that hand I am 100% sure I would have called (if not gone all in) looked back at it later and then figured out he had me beat. In the 30sec timer or whatever it is I wouldnt have been able to stick him on JJ, I am just not that good yet :P I am happy though that after studying it for a while I got somewhere near the right answer


Edit: damnit, looks like I just copied everyone else but I didnt read any of the replies before I did mine