Pot Odds example/Playing Draws Hard

[Jezza]

Playing draws hard into pre flop raisers is a play I especially like in NL hold em. It completely messes with their heads and you give them a big chance of playing incorrectly against you. If you have read any of my strategy posts in the past you will know this is a play I make frequently with sets/2 pair as well in deep stacked games to build huge pots and not allow my opponents to get away from overpairs/top pair.

A quick example would be if you limped UTG with 33. The next, tight, player raises to 5bb and it is folded around to you. You can probably put him square on a big pair in the hole or AK. Say you both have 400 stacks on 2/4 NL and he has made it 20 to go.

The flop comes K 9 3 with two hearts.

Dream flop, do you check or bet? The answer is probably bet. Almost all bad players check (a check can still be good on occasions of course but I am just talking generically here). But remember the range you put him on? Whats he going to do if you bet? Thats right, probably raise. So you lead at him for a decent bet, say 40 dollars. He raises to 140. You can now either flat call this and CR the turn all in (he will be pot commited at this point) or just move in on the flop. The decision of which you do should be made depending on how much money he has. If you think he is pot commited already then just move in, if he still has a lot of money to play for then he can escape if you move in so just call and let him hang himself on the turn.

This is all very well and good but some very good NL players will see the big pot brewing and warning bells will go off in their heads. If you just move in on the flop here then a very good player MIGHT still get away from AA. You can counteract this by playing big draws in the same fashion. If they see this from you as often as a set or two pair they are now pretty much forced to go through with their hand every time against you. This is great because if you have a massive draw you will be very close to break even equity (and in some situations you will be a favourite) - and ofc they still might talk themselves into a hero fold and lay AK or AA down on that flop, this is a MASSIVE bonus to your equity.

To illustrate this example go back to the previous hand and imagine we had J10hearts instead of 33. Again, wonderful flop for you but dont fall into the trap of playing it passively and check calling! Play it the same way as 33. Lead into the PFR, if he raises then just reraise all in like you probably would with 333. This is an exceptionally strong move as he has no idea where he stands. If he EVER folds in this spot it is a big mistake and your move is hugely +EV. If he calls it is no big deal either, your 48% to win the hand - so lets rock n roll baby. The great thing about this move is you either show up as a coinflip with him, or you have him totally crushed. Playing like this against good players will both get you action when you have sets and they have top pair and cause them to fold occasionally when you only have a draw. It is a win win move really.

I should say that playing like this is HIGH variance when it comes to draws. You need to be at your comfort zone in terms of stakes when pushing 300big blind pots with just a draw. However I feel to play correctly anyway this must be the case and I would never do anything else. Make sure you have the bankroll for it before stepping the aggression up a notch like this.

Ill post some example hands of this method up now (and one where I had a pot odds call for dan dan as well like I said in the other thread)

Jez

[Jezza]

Independence Day 10475274-31977 Holdem No Limit $3/$6
[Feb 10 12:35 am:24] : Hand Start.
[Feb 10 12:35 am:24] : Seat 1 : kungemil has $864.71
[Feb 10 12:35 am:24] : Seat 2 : Joker-D has $126
[Feb 10 12:35 am:24] : Seat 3 : MountCallan has $1,735.48
[Feb 10 12:35 am:24] : Seat 4 : Mindgameu has $585
[Feb 10 12:35 am:24] : Seat 5 : Deman17 has $466.50
[Feb 10 12:35 am:24] : Seat 6 : killj1m has $228.24
[Feb 10 12:35 am:24] : Seat 7 : BBDefendah has $793.25
[Feb 10 12:35 am:24] : Seat 8 : anal_yzer has $346.50
[Feb 10 12:35 am:24] : Seat 9 : Danne has $600
[Feb 10 12:35 am:24] : Joker-D is the dealer.
[Feb 10 12:35 am:28] : MountCallan posted small blind.
[Feb 10 12:35 am:28] : Mindgameu posted big blind.
[Feb 10 12:35 am:29] : Game [31977] started with 7 players.
[Feb 10 12:35 am:29] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Feb 10 12:35 am:29] : Seat 7 : BBDefendah has Ad 9d
[Feb 10 12:35 am:37] : Deman17 folded.
[Feb 10 12:35 am:39] : BBDefendah called $6
[Feb 10 12:35 am:41] : anal_yzer called $6
[Feb 10 12:35 am:43] : kungemil called $6 and raised $24
[Feb 10 12:35 am:47] : Joker-D folded.
[Feb 10 12:35 am:52] : MountCallan folded.
[Feb 10 12:35 am:52] : Mindgameu folded.
[Feb 10 12:35 am:54] : BBDefendah called $24
[Feb 10 12:36 am:04] : anal_yzer called $24
[Feb 10 12:36 am:05] : Dealing flop.
[Feb 10 12:36 am:05] : Board cards [7d Th Jd]
[Feb 10 12:36 am:09] : BBDefendah bet $100
[Feb 10 12:36 am:13] : anal_yzer called $100
[Feb 10 12:36 am:26] : kungemil called $100 and raised $734.71 and is All-in



Meh ok..

Preflop is bad I know, but what can I say, I was playing a bit loose

Still thats a dream flop for me. Massive draw plus maybe my ace is live. I decide to lead like I described above. I can put a LOT of pressure on this guy as the stacks are quite deep. Also by leading I might trap the other guy in the pot, so I do (I would play pocket 77 TT JJ, 89 or J10 all EXACTLY the same here believe me).

Anyway meh he pushes, not great. He cant have JJJ or TTT I think as he wouldnt make that overbet with those hands. I have to put him on QQ or KK (AA is less likely as I have an A,but its still possible). If he has QQ or KK I am actually a favourite and if he has AA only the tiniest of underdogs. I have to go through with my hand now. This is a pure pot odds call. There is 400 in there plus his raise, which makes it near 1100 dollars in there. I have to call 700 to win 1100. I therefore must call given the fact I think I am coinflipping here, I will always make money on this call in the long run. PLus ofc he is going to see what I have now, and that means I will get action on this board again if I have him crushed with 89diamonds (a hand I can have here a lot of the time)
[
Feb 10 12:36 am:30] : BBDefendah called $663.25 and is All-in
[Feb 10 12:36 am:36] : anal_yzer folded.
[Feb 10 12:36 am:36] : Showdown!
[Feb 10 12:36 am:36] : Seat 7 : BBDefendah has Ad 9d
[Feb 10 12:36 am:38] : Seat 1 : kungemil has Qc Qd
[Feb 10 12:36 am:38] : Seat 7 : BBDefendah has Ad 9d
[Feb 10 12:36 am:44] : Board cards [7d Th Jd 9c 7c]
[Feb 10 12:36 am:44] : Seat 1 : kungemil has Qc Qd
[Feb 10 12:36 am:44] : kungemil has Two Pair: Queens and 7s
[Feb 10 12:36 am:44] : Seat 7 : BBDefendah has Ad 9d
[Feb 10 12:36 am:44] : BBDefendah has Two Pair: 9s and 7s
[Feb 10 12:36 am:44] : kungemil wins $1,722.50 with Two Pair: Queens and 7s
[Feb 10 12:36 am:54] : Hand is over.

[Jezza]

OKERSTARS GAME #8109692130: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($2/$4) - 2007/01/25 - 01:05:51 (ET)
Table 'Nele' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Prabs03 ($96 in chips)
Seat 2: Adam Greear ($423 in chips)
Seat 4: theOBG ($436.20 in chips)
Seat 5: NutsInYoEye ($400 in chips)
Seat 6: BlueDevils09 ($310.30 in chips)
Seat 7: NoCorners ($220.65 in chips)
Seat 8: SC5137 ($392 in chips)
Seat 9: SuperJez ($558.45 in chips)
SuperJez: posts small blind $2
Prabs03: posts big blind $4
DaGamer: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SuperJez [Tc Ac]
Adam Greear: folds
theOBG: folds
NutsInYoEye: raises $12 to $16
BlueDevils09: folds
NoCorners: folds
SC5137: folds
SuperJez: calls $14
Prabs03: folds
*** FLOP *** [6s 8c 9c]
SuperJez: bets $32
NutsInYoEye: raises $52 to $84
SuperJez: raises $458.45 to $542.45 and is all-in
NutsInYoEye: folds
SuperJez collected $201 from pot
SuperJez: doesn't show hand

The same again. Villian in this hand could have many things. He might just have had two overs and be bluff raising, or he could really have the overpair. This is a horrid board to get action like this from on an overpair, he really might have folded that to me here. Whatever he had, this is where this play really comes into its own. He believed I had a set or the straight already I am sure.

[Jezza]

Raising Arizona 10474856-177565 Holdem No Limit $3/$6
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:19] : Hand Start.
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:19] : Seat 1 : fisheagle1 has $179.25
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:19] : Seat 2 : xdog has $0
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:19] : Seat 3 : samuel003 has $210.37
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:19] : Seat 4 : David W has $498.72
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:19] : Seat 5 : BBDefendah has $585
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:19] : Seat 6 : james7449 has $546.24
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:19] : Seat 7 : THEEBS has $601.04
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:19] : Seat 8 : kman17 has $495.77
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:19] : Seat 9 : MB343740 has $855.36
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:19] : samuel003 is the dealer.
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:19] : David W posted small blind.
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:20] : BBDefendah posted big blind.
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:20] : Game [177565] started with 8 players.
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:20] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:20] : Seat 5 : BBDefendah has 6s 7h
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:26] : james7449 called $6 and raised $6
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:29] : THEEBS folded.
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:31] : kman17 folded.
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:31] : MB343740 folded.
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:32] : fisheagle1 folded.
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:35] : samuel003 called $12
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:40] : David W called $9
[Feb 9 07:08 pm:43] : BBDefendah called $6
[Feb 9 07:09 pm:39] : Dealing flop.
[Feb 9 07:09 pm:39] : Board cards [5h 8c 6d]
[Feb 9 07:09 pm:42] : David W checked.
[Feb 9 07:09 pm:52] : BBDefendah bet $45
[Feb 9 07:09 pm:53] : james7449 folded.
[Feb 9 07:09 pm:55] : samuel003 folded.
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:00] : David W called $45 and raised $90
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:06] : BBDefendah called $90 and raised $438 and is All-in
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:08] : David W called $351.72 and is All-in
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:09] : Showdown!
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:09] : Seat 5 : BBDefendah has 6s 7h
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:11] : Seat 4 : David W has Qh Qs
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:11] : Seat 5 : BBDefendah has 6s 7h
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:17] : Board cards [5h 8c 6d Jh 4s]
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:17] : Seat 5 : BBDefendah has 6s 7h
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:17] : BBDefendah has Straight 87654
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:17] : Seat 4 : David W has Qh Qs
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:17] : David W has Pair: Queens
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:17] : BBDefendah wins $1,018.44 with Straight 87654
[Feb 9 07:10 pm:27] : Hand is over.

[Jezza]

And of course the times you show up with the goods....

** Everybody Hurts [Hold 'em] (2.00|4.00 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money

- dfens21 sitting in seat 1 with $64.81 [Sitting out]
- mooojuice sitting in seat 2 with $400.00 [Sitting out]
- bestist sitting in seat 3 with $386.00
- dumbdumber sitting in seat 4 with $196.00
- Rejvar sitting in seat 5 with $321.34
- SuperJezza sitting in seat 6 with $436.70
- hochhoch sitting in seat 7 with $54.30
- skoren19 sitting in seat 8 with $383.14
- boroby sitting in seat 9 with $538.38
- maxime59 sitting in seat 10 with $194.38 [Dealer]

bestist posted the small blind - $2.00
dumbdumber posted the big blind - $4.00
** Dealing card to SuperJezza: 7 of Spades, 7 of Clubs
Rejvar folded
SuperJezza called - $4.00
hochhoch folded
skoren19 raised - $20.00
boroby folded
maxime59 folded
bestist folded
dumbdumber folded
SuperJezza called - $20.00

** Dealing the flop: 10 of Hearts, 7 of Hearts, 5 of Spades
SuperJezza bet - $44.00
skoren19 raised - $110.00
SuperJezza went all-in - $372.70
skoren19 went all-in - $253.14
skoren19 shows: Ace of Hearts, Ace of Spades

** Dealing the turn: Jack of Spades

** Dealing the river: 8 of Clubs
SuperJezza wins $769.28 from the main pot

[Jezza]

Fold Equity:

Fold Equity is where you make a raise that stands a chance of winning the pot by the chance of your opponent folding.

You play a lot of tournaments dont you Dan Dan, ok imagine you are on the button with AK in a tournament.

Say you are quite a large stack, there is a medium stack to your immediate right. The action is folded round to him (or her, not to be sexist lol). They then raise about a third of their stack preflop. You look down at a lovely AK and just reraise them the rest of their chips. It is folded back tot them to make their decision. You have folding equity here. That is, your chance to win the hand outright now by them just folding. Lets say they have 44. If they call then its no worries, its a coinflip and you can afford the chips. However they might well fold, fearing you have a higher pair in the hole, giving their chips up to you without a showdown. This is your folding equity. As you can see you really want them to fold if they have 44, its much better for you in the long run.

Folding equity is a massive bonus. It is much better to raise all in than call an all in in a tournament. If you raise an all in you have this "folding equity" and you can win the hand in 2 ways, 1) Your opponent calling and you having the best hand at showdown or 2) Your opponent just folding and no showdown needed. If you call an all in you are going to have to have the best hand at showdown or you are out - that is a LOT worse situation to be in than having the chance your opponent will fold.

When I talk about folding equity in the hands I posted above, I am talking about the chance I have of my opponents folding top pair/overpair to me on those boards I am pushing hard. There is a good chance of that if they are a decent player, they know I am a tight player and unlikely to show complete shite if they call and the action looks to them like their AA or whatever could well be beaten, so they fold and I scoop the pot without having to hit my draw. If they call it is no big deal either - but I am the one in the driving seat.

Jez

[DAN DAN]

Thank you Jez, I play nothing but tournies as my cash play is bad. You really do need to know the math much better in cash.

I do understand the fold equity after all. Just not in words.

I play that way quite a lot as I like to win outright rather than with a showdown.

Quite often takes me twice as long to get where I'm going but as I previously stated it doesn't win me tournies.

[nonecks]

lol It took me about a year to realise that cash game play is completely different from mtts.

It's the reason why i'm hopeless in cash games.

[aliensyndm]

Here is a useful table for pot odds. You don't necessarily need to memorise the whole table but I would certainly suggest remember the most common ones which are highlighted.



Here is a link to the article this was lifted from...

http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/13913

Oh and this is cool cos it allows me to show I was on the ball. There is a mistake in the article. I emailed Lou Krieger to tell him about this and he said oh aye right enough so there is........this was ages ago and yet still the mistake remains unchanged ! The mistake is to do with this sentence...

If you have only four outs, our quick proximate measure (4 outs x 2 + 2 = 10) is very close to the actual figure of 10.5.

He's mixed up the odds with the percentage......the actual figure is 8.7, not 10.5 as that's the odds against not the percentage. Just a small mistake but it may end up confusing people so thought I should mention it.

[christianu]

There is a lot of really really good stuff there Jez, excellent post.

Im going to show my up and coming poker mate as he'll really appreciate this as he's been wondering how to play his big draws, this is perfect.

Nice one.

[christianu]

One more thing Jez, how about playing draws like this out of position, when somebody leads into you say pot?

[Jezza]

Depends on the board texture I suppose but I would say almost always raise. If it is a board you would raise a set on, then raise a draw as well. For the same reasons as outlined above.

If you have position and they flat call, then you can check if you miss the turn and they check to you, again they have made a mistake here. If you hit and they check then you can choose to slowplay and check behind to get a curious river call or just keep betting. I usually keep betting, especially if I have a low flush and they probably have an overpair with a now flush draw that would beat yours if it hit. If they move in on the flop then its no biggy to call - and if its how you play sets as well the same applies, you will either be drawing very near a coinflip or have them totally crushed. If you have a VERY strong read they are either on a missed AK or are such a tight player they might fold an overpair to more pressure then you can just bet the turn again regardless of if you hit or miss. This is a costly play if you get it wrong however, you must be sure of your read. If your just starting to play aggressively like this then just take the free card. I am more liable to keep the pressure up in a shorthanded or HU game, not full ring (where im more liable to check and take the free card)

Jez

[kompressaur]

Dream flop, do you check or bet? The answer is probably bet. Almost all bad players check (a check can still be good on occasions of course but I am just talking generically here

Havent you got a prile of 3's Jezza? Isnt that a good hand? Would they check to try and fool the other players that he doesnt have much? :usure Actually are you saying tthat if you just check on 333 Jezza it doesnt cost you anything to check and then when he raises thinking your struggling a bit you all in him so as he has to pay to see you? if you was to raise on 333 he would reraise you and then you'd have to reraise him and then he's all ...nah ive lost it. Its good to read about ll this. I think i'll just learn the basics first.

[Jezza]

Aight komp,


The thing is here that many bad players routinely check when they have a great hand and bet when they have nothing/a marginal hand. Good players know this and thus can escape from a good hand when a bad player check raises them. That is not to say it is not correct to slowplay a very good hand sometimes (as in check it etc), it IS - you just have to work out which is best in the context of the situation.

In the example above the key thing is the stack sizes. We both have 400 dollars and the big blind is only 4 dollars. We want to get his WHOLE stack when he have a great hand like 333 so our play has to centre around getting him committed to the pot. If we check/call then CR the turn, he has a definate chance to escape. The same goes for CR on the flop, infact even more so probably. However if we LEAD at this hand on the flop, then he is going to probably raise if he has AA in the hole. This commits more of his chips, and more importantly he is going to think we probably have a king and not a hand as good as we have (if we really did have 333 he would think, we would have checked it to him for sure).

However checking in this situation can be right as well, like I said its all about the stacks in play. If he only had 80 dollars left then I Check it everytime. He commits himself (which is what our play centres around) with any bet to the pot, and he is going to bet this flop after raising preflop with anything he has. Late on in tournaments stack sizes become so shallow in relation to the big blind that a check would usually be best there as well, unless you were the two chip leaders or something.

By leading at this flop you are taking a gamble he raised preflop with AK or AA, or he is aggressive enough to bluff raise you. You miss out on the times he raised with AQ and QQ JJ etc, and only win a small pot then. However the huge pot you will win when you come up against AK more than makes up for the times you got it wrong.

Jez