Bubble play

[Quandram]

Is it purely a matter of perspective? You play your normal game or go ultra tight to guarantee a cash finish depending upon whether your bank demands a return or not?

I'm absolutely horrible at bank management i freely admit and usually when i get close to the money i tighten up to get a return and sometimes foresake some very playable hands.

The other night i didn't. I was sat 14 of 21 (top 20 paid). On the BB and the SB raises me all-in. This was not out of character with his play and what i might do in his position trying to pick on the smaller hands around bubble time so no reason to suspect a monster hand. In the majority of my poker life i'd have sworn at him from behind the vocal safety of my screen and folded the hand.

I called with a mid-pair (7's which happens to be my favoutire hand which may not have helped my judgement). He flips AK and whilst it took him to the river card to hit it he made a hand and i was done out in 21st.



I'll stop the sob story that you all have a million of and boil it down to this...



Do you change how you play at bubble time and if yes is it dependent on whether your bank needs a return or just because you choose to take money whenever you can however small it may be?

[Scottieboy08]

I not sure how liked Daniel Negreanu is on here, but a little word he said on this helped make my mind up; "In order to survive, you must be willing to die". I find this is the best time to pick up chips against tight players in order to increase my chances of making the big money. A small profit doesn't make a big difference with me unless i'm unbelievably short-stacked at that time.

In terms of whether your bankroll needs it, it depends on the % increase on your stake ie. if you entered via a satellite/freeroll, then it is probably best to tighten due to the substantial increase in funds.

Hope my opinion helps mate

[Quandram]

All opinions are good as far as i'm concerned mate.

I guess most people will give a similar view to what you've put forward and it's essentially what i subscribe to myself (i just seem to spend a lot of time being short stacked and scraping the money rather than being le grand fromage and bullying chips off people). Just started this in case there are any random thoughts from folk.

[Scottieboy08]

Nice one mate, I find that I'm never anywhere near the chip lead until the final table so it's good to hear from someone who has to scrap at times

[Graham0573]

I'm with Negreanu really, although I don't always do it. There are a lot of chips to be picked up around the bubble because people want to just creep into the money. Take advantage against the weaker players. If you're close to the cut off and it's folded, if there are small stacks on the blinds, I'd probably stick them all in if I had enough chips.

If you're playing to just make the money, that's not necessarily a bad thing but the money is usually only slightly more than the buy in so if you need it that badly, you probably shouldn't be playing at that level. I usually aim for first place (unless it's a sat) so want to take advantage around this time and get a bit more agressive.

Saying that, my game isn't that agressive so I don't always find it easy to do, but that's what I believe I should be doing.

[Burt Saddo]

Originally Posted by Graham0573

If you're playing to just make the money, that's not necessarily a bad thing but the money is usually only slightly more than the buy in so if you need it that badly, you probably shouldn't be playing at that level. I usually aim for first place (unless it's a sat) so want to take advantage around this time and get a bit more agressive.

exactly my attitude also. Only did it once but that was in a tournament over 10 legs and I had invested 5 months of playing in it so I admit I did wany a payout that time.

[mrmuzeman]

Raising when first in the pot near the bubble really does take it down a lot of the time. If you have a good/great stack you definitely should be doing this an awful lot with any playable hand in this situation against stacks that cant do you too much damage. If you havent got a good stack though, dont do it and stay in to make the money for sure. You kinda need a good stack for real aggressive bubble play imo otherwise I dont think its the correct strategy whatever your bankroll.

I called with a mid-pair (7's which happens to be my favoutire hand which may not have helped my judgement). He flips AK and whilst it took him to the river card to hit it he made a hand and i was done out in 21st.

For example in Quandrams hand....this is poor play imo (sorry mate ). If Quandram had AK here and really wanted to go for the win I could understand the call more (your only behind against AA or KK....v unlikely....and you could so easily be in against an AQ, AJ, KQ etc which is happy days). But with 77 this aint the call you want to be doing here. Your probably coinflipping against overcards but you may well be up against a bigger pair then you really are in the shite. I dont really like calling all in for your whole stack with medium pairs at the best of times but certainly not on the bubble. You HAVE to win the pot in a showdown there is no fold equity in calling an all in.

Now...say you were a big stack and held 77 here on the bubble and a shortstack moves all in...call that everytime.

[Doc]

it wasn't Negreanu who said that - I'll look it up and find out who, but it wasn't him

I completely disagree with muze on the call. It was absolutely 100% correct IMO. You're against an aggressive player who could have virtually any hand.
There are 28 of 1225 hands that are beating you. Your hand is in the top 10%of hands heads up. Against a range of likely hands, the probabilities are:

He has a lower pair - you're over 80% favourite
He has two higher cards - you're a 51% favourite
He has a higher and a lower card (e.g. A5) - you're over 2-1 favourite
He has a higher card plus a 6 or a seven - ditto
He has a 6 or a 7 plus a lower card (e.g. 76s) - you're over 7-1 favourite to win
He has two lower cards (v. unlikely admittedly, but far from impossible) - you're 5-1 favourite to win

Even if I had seen that he had AK here, I'd call - and that is among the best hands he could have.

You're almost certainly ahead. You have a chance to double up, on the bubble thus almost certainly guaranteeing a money finish, whereas at the moment you're likely to be on the way out! You'll be sending a message to other players not to pick on your blinds. You'll probably be crippling another stack.

So, he won this hand, but that isn't the point - you'll win more than he will if you call here.

[Graham0573]

I disagree and also don't really see it as heads up. The opponent is playing knowing there are 20 others in the tourney, not just one so his hand has to be strong enough to try and take the pot from those acting after him. I'd fold small pairs in this situation and would only be calling with AA, KK, AK, QQ and maybe JJ.

If I could get in the pot first, then I'd push with 77, but I'm not calling with it in this situation.

[Jezza]

Your right doc, it wasnt negranue, it was ahmir varhedi (or however you spell it)...but Scotties point still holds true.

The bubble of a tournament can be a tough time. If you have a lot of chips it can be a fine time to pick up even more as you crank the aggression right up. This has been stated many times before but thats because its good advice - right before the final table is another time this tactic can come into play. If you dont have a lot of chips then you can still use this cautious period to your advantage, but you have to be slightly more selective. Try to pick on stacks around the same size of you in this case, they are forced to have to have premium hands to call you with as opposed to the larger stacks who may call you lighter.

If you are scared of not making into the money because of the fat addition it will give to your roll then your probably playing in tournaments above your bankroll and should play lower stakes. Playing scared is never a good idea, especially if just the bubble money represents a large amount to you. Thinking this way will mean you have hardly any chance of winning the tournament (or any later ones) and will only pick up small cashes. If you are merely concerned about the psychological factor of "being in profit from this tournament" and want to secure that before you go on then you kind of have the wrong idea imo. Remember all the money in MTTs is in the top 3 spots, the rest is just smush in comparison usually. Securing one of the spots just once is far better than a multitude of small cashes. Although of course playing aggressively will lead to higher variance and less small (albeit slightly satisfying) cashes it is my belief that in the long run you will profit more from the aggressive style chasing the top spots. This does not mean playing completely recklessly and taking on the 2nd in chips with 33 preflop when you are chipleader but it DOES mean not hanging on and "waiting until im in the money until I make a move".

Of course if you are so short you are practically guaranteed to be called by anything half decent you might as well fold into the money before you go all in unless you get a monster.....

[Jezza]

An interesting understandable exception to this rule might be if you have satellited your way into a very large tournament that you would never enter out of your own pocket. The WSOP for example. Although it still would not be the correct play to fold your way into the money if you were in a postion to do so (allowing your blinds to be stolen for the hour previous to the bubble for example), it is perhaps more understandable than doing so in a 30 dollar online MTT . I witnessed a real life case of this on the last ladbrokes poker cruise. A geordie lad had qualified for the whole shebang, cruse + 5k main event entry. He was so skint he had even tried to lose his online qualifer on the bubble. (The bubble had paid 2k cash whilst the next place up was cruise + main event worth 11k). Going all in with crap every hand on the bubble he told me, he got called constantly and just sucked out on everyone . Anyway he found himself on the bubble of the main event with a small stack. Next out got 0 whilst the person after him got something between 5 and 6 grand, I cant quite remember the exact amount. Anyway someone raised before him and he looked down at AA. He was so short as to obviously be called if he went in and he decided to chicken out and fold, clearly giving up ANY chance he ever had of winning the whole thing and the huge first prize to guarantee a few grand. He made it into the money and was out very quickly after.

Clearly this was "wrong" in the poker sense but what would you have all done in this spot? (honest answers please lol). I would have 100% moved all in.

Jez

[aliensyndm]

Oh man it's so easy to say you would have stuck the chips in but if you really did need the cash it might be a different story. I think I may convince myself to put the chips in with AA and if it gets cracked I would have a really boring bad beat story to tell people just before I committed suicide.

[Doc]

yeah, I agree with the point as quoted by Scottie

Also, as you say - you just can't play scared. 14th of 21 players left, I'm guessing that you probably had in the region of 10-20BB left in your stack. When you're in that area you're virtually in all-in or fold territory. Obviously you far prefer being the person moving rather than calling, but there are many big factors here that should make you call:
1) The player is very aggressive
2) It was folded to him in the SB, so he is facing a random hand heads up - with fold equity almost any hand is profitable here on a move all-in for him against most players
3) You have an excellent hand
4) He is out of position and therefore moving now gives him the greatest chance of winning the pot
5) You say you often tighten up at this stage - is it possible that he has picked up on this - or observed you reluctant to defend your blinds?
6) If you're as short stacked as I suspect, you may not get a better spot AND chips to do something with it

For whatever reason, Mickey didn't want me linking to the articles on short-handed play I wrote - but I'd suggest you seek them out and consider the figures in them.

You could also do worse than look at some poker tools:
Poker Calculator
S&G Calculator

Using the former with what I'd say are his likely hands (Any Pair, Any Ace, any suited King, any picture cards) you're a 55% favourite. In fact you are probably further ahead than that - most players wouldn't move all-in with Aces or Kings there - looking instead to extract more money from you. Equally there may be other, less-premium, hands that they'd also play.

If the BB is X% of your stack (before the hand), then you're basically wagering (1-X) to win twice your stack. That is odds of 2/(1-X).
With 55% chance of winning that gives you an expectation of:
1.1/(1-X).
That equates to an edge of (X+0.1)/(1-X)
If the big blind is 5% of your stack, then you have an edge of 15.8%
If it is 10% of your stack, then you have an edge of 21%
If it is 15% then you have an edge of 29% etc

Those are huge edges to be passing up, especially when you factor in the payout differential between the higher places and the lower ones.

[Yen_Sid]

Originally Posted by Jezza

Anyway someone raised before him and he looked down at AA. He was so short as to obviously be called if he went in and he decided to chicken out and fold, clearly giving up ANY chance he ever had of winning the whole thing and the huge first prize to guarantee a few grand. He made it into the money and was out very quickly after.

Clearly this was "wrong" in the poker sense but what would you have all done in this spot? (honest answers please lol). I would have 100% moved all in.

Jez

Don't even need to give this a seconds thought, I would've pushed the lot in, my mindset being that when I double through I have not only almost guaranteed final table, but another load of rounds where I could pick up more pots and make one of the very high finishes, and even a realistic shot at top spot.. Just for the record Jez, same scenario but with KK?? Exact same for me, I'd be pushing, all day every day. Fair enough the guy who raised could be on a mid pair and hit a set, but, It doesn't mean you made a bad play at a crucial time, that would just be plain unlucky. Personally, I think anyone who throws away AA or KK in this position will struggle to ever win a tournament.

[mrmuzeman]

You speak some real crap Doc. 77 really is a fold there right on the bubble with a playable stack. Im well suprised you think thats a call on the bubble.

you'll win more than he will if you call here.

Its not a cash game. You dont win the tournament if you win the hand.

Even if I had seen that he had AK here, I'd call

Accepting a near 50% chance of no payout isnt exactly great tournament strategy Doc. Youd call if you know he has AK what a load of pish. Lets put our tourny life on the line knowing your in a coinflip! What great play that is!

He has a lower pair - you're over 80% favourite
He has two higher cards - you're a 51% favourite
He has a higher and a lower card (e.g. A5) - you're over 2-1 favourite
He has a higher card plus a 6 or a seven - ditto
He has a 6 or a 7 plus a lower card (e.g. 76s) - you're over 7-1 favourite to win
He has two lower cards (v. unlikely admittedly, but far from impossible) - you're 5-1 favourite to win

Leaving out ALL possibility of an overpair, why?? You include the underpairs and overpairs is just as likely as that. Overpair is also more likely scenario than the bottom 2 categories. And dont start saying blah blah theres 69 different combinations of low cards etc (a pure guess at an amount I have no idea how many there are) it doesnt work like that. In all honesty, I dont think its going to be a 7 high hand moving all in on the bubble. Whats by far the most likely scenario A LOT of the time here....

He has two higher cards - you're a 51% favourite

There it is, woopdifcukingdoo a 1% edge. Praise the lord!

at the moment you're likely to be on the way out!

Why? 14th out of 21 stacks isnt so bad at all. Its hardly correct to say it looks like bubbling is the most likely scenario if you fold when 1/3 of the players have a smaller stack than you?

There are 28 of 1225 hands that are beating you. Your hand is in the top 10% of hands heads up.

Youve got to take into account the situation, you sound like some kind of poker bot reeling off stats.





IT IS IN TOP 10% OF HANDS....I PUT VILLAIN ON 16% CHANCE...OF 65s OR BELOW....IF NOT I STILL MAINTAIN A 0.8% EDGE - I CALL WITH GUSTO