Bubble play

[aliensyndm]

I don't think you risk your entire tournament on what is most likely to be a coin-flip at best when you are sitting 14th out of 21 with 20 places paid.
If you are going to call you have you want to have a decent chance of being a 75% er to risk all your chips there I think. This is where AK is actually better as already mentioned. Cos either you are dominating him if he has a weaker ace or you are still a coinflip yourself to QQ or worse. But even then, there are still quite a few players with less chips and if you want to make the money why risk it on a hand that is likely to be marginal at best ?

[Doc]

your opinion muse - my opinion - still just opinions.

I agree with Jez here - the money is to be made in the higher placings. If you play just to sneak into the money you're not going to do well IMO - you have to play aggressively (not the same as recklessly).

With the top 20 paying, I'm guessing this is probably a 200 player tourney. A typical payout structure for these might be:
Top 3 share 55%
Next 3 share 20%
Next 3 share 11%
Next 3 share 6%
Next 3 share 4%
Rest share 4%

In terms of buy-in, these probably equate to something like
Top 3 share 110 buyins
Next 3 (pos 4-6) share 40
Next 3 (pos 7-9) share 22
Next 3 (pos 10-12) share 12 (i.e. 4 each)
Next 3 (pos 13-15) share 8
Rest (16-20) share 8 (i.e. less than 2 each)

If you of average standard compared to the rest of the table, your chances of winning (or any place for that matter) are approximately proportional to your stack size. At the moment Quandum is in 14th. We don't know the chip stacks here or the blind level (Quandum - it would be great if you had info on these as they are very relevant), but I'd be very surprised if doubling up didn't move you into the top 6 here (in my experience up to 50% of the chips will be in the hands of the top 3 or 4 stacks at this stage). If you just maintained your position, you're on course to win about 2 or 2.5 times your buy-in. A call here bets that against putting you in the top 6 - i.e. winning 16+ times your buy-in

IMO (and Jez has said something similar above), if you're that worried about making 100-150% return on a single tournament buy-in, then you're playing way above your sensible bank level.

Now, to take some specific points muse made:

Its not a cash game. You dont win the tournament if you win the hand.

You could call with AA here and lose. But it is still right to call. Of course you are putting your tournament life in jeopardy, but you're doing it based on the risk/reward balance

Accepting a near 50% chance of no payout isnt exactly great tournament strategy Doc. Youd call if you know he has AK what a load of pish. Lets put our tourny life on the line knowing your in a coinflip! What great play that is!

As I explained in a later post, you're quite likely to have 20% or more edge here in your bet against AK

Leaving out ALL possibility of an overpair, why?? You include the underpairs and overpairs is just as likely as that. Overpair is also more likely scenario than the bottom 2 categories. And dont start saying blah blah theres 69 different combinations of low cards etc (a pure guess at an amount I have no idea how many there are) it doesnt work like that. In all honesty, I dont think its going to be a 7 high hand moving all in on the bubble. Whats by far the most likely scenario A LOT of the time here....

I didn't leave out the possibility of an overpair - obviously that is exactly the same scenario as when he has an underpair, but this time you're on the opposite side - i.e. 20% to win. I also didn't say anything about the relative likelihoods of each hand in that part of that post, I'll say some more about that in a minute

There it is, woopdifcukingdoo a 1% (referring the AK vs 77) edge. Praise the lord!

A couple of things - you have to consider the two blinds which are already in the pot - they add to the return you get
You're betting X to have a 51% chance of winning 2X+ 2 Big Blinds.
So your edge is in fact 2% PLUS (1.02BB/X). If the big blind is 5% of your stack, the edge is over 7%, if the BB is 10% the edge is over 12% etc. AND that is the edge purely based on chip count - not on the dollar expectation for the tournament overall.

Can I ask what hands you would call the all-in with there?AA, KK, QQ?

Look at some scenarios here.
1) He will only make this with AA-JJ and AKs. He is 75% to win the hand vs 77
2) He will also do it with AKo. He is 66%
3) He will do it with AQ. He is 60%
4) He will also move with 99+, AT+, KQs. He is 58%
5) He will move with any pair bigger than 6, any Ace, any two face cards. He is 46%

Of the above, given that he is (a) aggressive, and (b) it is blind vs blind, I'd say that even (5) above is quite conservative.

Overall I'm happy with what I've suggested - unless Quandum had 50 or more BB, in which case he has plenty of time to wait for a better spot. I'll wait to hear from him, and will also refrain from personal insults till then

[mrmuzeman]

I agree with Jez here - the money is to be made in the higher placings. If you play just to sneak into the money you're not going to do well IMO - you have to play aggressively (not the same as recklessly).

Of course I am aware of this. You are on THE BUBBLE though, theres not 30 left with 20 paid or something like this where you can play more normally, it does make a difference. Pass the 77 and by the time the BB next comes round to you id imagine youll be in the money and you can return to playing more optimally. Not that I think calling here with 77 is optimal anyway in a tournament a lot of the time but you catch my drift.

You could call with AA here and lose. But it is still right to call. Of course you are putting your tournament life in jeopardy, but you're doing it based on the risk/reward balance

This has nothing to do with the point I was making. You pass small edges (say 51-60% favourite type scenarios) in tournies sometimes, its correct strategy to do so to keep yourself in the tournament and give yourself chance to get lucky and pick up some real nice hands.

Its like a scenario with an open ended straight and flush draw, you are a favourite here 54% or whatever it is against hands like top pair and overpairs. But if you are calling the all in do you necessarily do it in a tournament? No you shouldnt a lot of the time. In a cash game do you? Absolutely. Its a similar % scenario with the 77 here.

As I explained in a later post, you're quite likely to have 20% or more edge here in your bet against AK

What dyou mean by this? How would 77 have a 20% edge against AK, its like a coinflip scenario. In terms of tournament survival you will go out about 50% of the time this is the key point (lets face it theres only 1bb in there as dead money its hardly much to be getting sweet about and basing your key decisions on).

Can I ask what hands you would call the all-in with there? AA, KK, QQ?

Yep id make the call with those for sure. Id definitely consider calling with AK too. Maybe JJ but I would be overly happy about it but I guess I would. I think id pass anything else at this particular point, 1010 is like the cut off point I think.

Btw im not arguing against your saying you will win a larger % of the time than you will lose. I reckon you would win the pot by calling here about 55-60% of the time with the 77. My argument is that you REALLY should avoid calling for your whole stack in coinflippy type scenarios in tournaments (unless you had like 4 or 5bb or summat real low). I think in a tournament GUARANTEEING yourself a 40-50% chance of going out of the tournament it is a pretty dodgy decision to say the least.

[mrmuzeman]

If you just maintained your position, you're on course to win about 2 or 2.5 times your buy-in. A call here bets that against putting you in the top 6 - i.e. winning 16+ times your buy-in

Taking this sort of thing into account are fair points. BUT there is 1 pretty big flaw here for me. I truly believe that I will be able to get my money in in a better spot than this a lot of the time AFTER the bubble has burst. So this is of no worry to me whatsoever. This 77 is not the only situation I will have to double up. I would put money on myself finding a better edge than the 77 hand to double through the majority of the time giving myself an EVEN BETTER CHANCE to achieve a high place whilst simultaneously guaranteeing myself some cash by not bubbling. I know which sounds better to me.

[Doc]

A couple of points in response.

1) folding now in now way guarantees you don't go out in 21st
2) depending on the ratio of blinds to your stack, you may well NOT get a better chance. I'd fold here too if the ratio of stack to blinds was very large - but typically it isn't at this stage. I'd be very surprised if Quandum had more than 15 BB's left in this situation, so he has to get busy sometime soon.

[Doc]

sorry, missed your first post!

I agree it is correct to pass up small edges SOMETIMES in tournaments, but not always. Particularly when short-stacked (and that could be anything less than 6 or 7 times the BB) in the later stages of a tournament, you're just looking for any reasonable chance (e.g. unopened pot) to get all your chips in, almost regardless of your cards. In some cases the optimal strategy can even be all-in every hand!

What dyou mean by this? How would 77 have a 20% edge against AK, its like a coinflip scenario. In terms of tournament survival you will go out about 50% of the time this is the key point (lets face it theres only 1bb in there as dead money its hardly much to be getting sweet about and basing your key decisions on).

The dead money can in fact be very significant. Lets say I have 10,000 chips left and the blinds are 800/1500. The SB puts me all in. There is 11,500 in the pot and it costs me 8500 to call (my 1500 is already in the pot). Purely in chip terms your expectation is +1700 chips - i.e. you expect on average to increase your stack by 17% by calling against AK. If you convert it to prize money dollars, it equates to an awful lot more.
Of course if the blinds are 100/200 then it does change substantially - you're risking 9800 to win 10200

Yep id make the call with those for sure. Id definitely consider calling with AK too. Maybe JJ but I would be overly happy about it but I guess I would. I think id pass anything else at this particular point, 1010 is like the cut off point I think.

Interesting - that is tighter than I'd play

[Jezza]

Argghh i just wrote a really long reply to this thread and my computer crashed ill try to recreate it .

Its a great thread youve got going here guys. I firmly believe that the more aggressive players, and the ones who take advantage of "tight" spots in play, like the bubble, are generally the biggest winners in MTTs in the long run. When I say aggressive I do not mean reckless tho. It is preflop skill that predominates tournaments. Whereas cash game players must become proficient at flop/turn/river play, tournament play mainly centres around preflop battles. In the later stages of a tournament if you ever actually do get to see a flop it is usually inconsiquential and mostly a no brainer. TPTK is an absolute monster for example. It is the preflop battle that is the skill. A good aggressive player here knows just how to work his stack without being reckless. Fold equity is one of the most important things. Picking on the tightest players blinds, or picking on players whos stacks are not so short to HAVE to call regardless of the cards but short enough to know their life is on the line if they call your raise are good tactics. Picking good spots to reraise light in is another important skill. Whereas it may be reckless to reraise an UTG raiser with AJ, a cut off raiser is a prime target for a button reraise by many weaker hands, 22 or A9 for example. The most important thing is to always have good folding equity in these situations. You can reraise with anything but to just call an all in for a large amount of chips, well you better have the best hand as its going to a showdown. Players like gus hansen are masters of this style. Accumulating a lot of chips from their preflop play, when they are finally moved in on and they have to call given the odds they can easily afford it as they have such large stacks. Of course the times they suck out they are moaned at for being luckboxes, however they were basically on a freeroll to start off with due to all the chips they had accumulated from the previous hours play with the same moves.

I have to admit I am not exactly a great MTT player, and infact I hardly ever play them these days but I still firmly believe it is preflop skill that is the crux of them (after the first couple of blind levels of course) - and the aggressive players who capitalise on the other players are the ones who rise to the top of them.

As for the other topics (and the hand mentioned) in this thread. I totally agree on the fact passing small edges which require a gamble for a lot of your chips is a good thing in an MTT. If you held 22 as teh chipleader and the 2nd in chips moved all in for his stack preflop with AK....well thats a fold everytime (I am assuming you have xray specs to see his cards of course ). The good players try to avoid these scenarios and work on situations they have good fold equity in. Of course some times it is unavoidable, and you cant let it get to a point where you can be pushed off all your hands preflop, but you should try and keep these confrontations to a minimum if you can (or put the decision on the other player).

As for the 77 hand in question that is for another reply. I dont think its as quite clear cut as is made out by either side and I would have had a real think about it at the time...however I would imagine A-rag makes up a lot bigger % of his range than is being given credit for at the minute.

Jez

[Doc]

As for the 77 hand in question that is for another reply. I dont think its as quite clear cut as is made out by either side and I would have had a real think about it at the time...however I would imagine A-rag makes up a lot bigger % of his range than is being given credit for at the minute.

I'd certainly agree that A-rag is one of his more likely hands. I guess in many ways this boils down to the fact that 77 is never a big favourite against anything but a lower pair or two lower cards. While these hands are possible they are (especially two unpaired babies) less likely. We all (at least muse and I!) agree that the 77 is probably ahead. The amount of edge will depend on the blinds to stack ratio, and whether calling is right or not, depends on how much risk you want to take.

I'd love to hear from Quandrum (sorry about mis-spelling your name earlier mate!) about the last point (size of blinds and stacks)

[Quandram]

No worries doc... was kind of hoping if i didn't post people would drop the bit about the particular merits or distinct lack there of of my play and get more hyperthetical to avoid being found out for the poker fool i am

If memory serves i was on something like 15xBB or there abouts i think the double up would have stuck me about 7/8th. I could have folded them and been pretty much guaranteed money as there were players very short and there was probably little chance that they survive another round of the table.

I've found this an interesting thread and it's clearly not a definite set call as there are reasonable (for the most part) arguments made by each side.

At the time i made the play because i liked the hand and more importantly i was convinced the SB was trying to bluff me off my chips. I take Muse's (i think it was his and i can't be arsed to check back so apologies if i am mistaken) that with a mid-pair i could well be facing a coin flip anyway against probably at least 1 higher card in my oponents hand and probably if i'd had more chips (as in a better chance of making the top money without this move) i likely wouldn't have taken it if it would still have knocked me out. The call depends on what your aims are, i felt i could make a decent assault if i doubled through and was willing to risk going out (whilst i cursed not so quietly at the time i'm a little more objective now).



by the way i assume you were apologising for the lack of 'r' in the name rather than the 'a' being replaced by a 'u' as you continue to do. Having said that i've barely seen one fucker on this site who doesn't put a second 'u' in it (not suprising with the general literacy levels regularly displayed here )so maybe i'm the one that spelt it wrong .

[aliensyndm]

You can't spell your username wrongly ! It's whatever you want it to be.
I'm sure I got it right in the tables though as I know how annoying it is when people mis-spell your name.

[Quandram]

Originally Posted by aliensyndm

You can't spell your username wrongly ! It's whatever you want it to be.

Thanks for clearing that up Alien, i was getting worried i had to register it somewhere and get a new voting slip

[Doc]

sorry about the spelling Quandram - I was too lazy to go back to the original post

if there are some really tiny stacks and you have 15BB, then that would incline you more towards a fold than otherwise. As you say it does depend somewhat on your objectives. One other point worth mentioning here is that presumably the transition from 21 players to 20 means that you will go from 3 tables of 7 to 2 tables of 10. That change is important as you have 8 hands between blinds rather than 5. The fact that you're heads up versus a very aggressive player, in a battle of the blinds, certainly justifies your suspicion that he was trying to bluff you off your chips.
I think it is definitely a +EV move in terms of tournament chips. The question largely revolves around how prepared you are to risk elimination versus win a decent prize. The likely structure would mean that this hand could make a big difference to your chances. My own attitude here would be that there is little difference between finishing 20th and finishing 14th or so - I'd want to be pushing to get into the top 6 or so or at least die trying! If, as you say, there were several microstacks then with 15BB in chips I might wait - as you are effectively now betting the 20th prize that one (or more) of them is eliminated before you act. I'd want 3 or more stacks with less than 3 BB to be confident in that regard though.

With the extra information you've given now, I'd say it is a pretty tough decision. Certainly not a clear fold IMO, but now not quite a clear call either. On balance I think (assuming there are several micro-stacks) I'd be more inclined to fold. No doubt music to muse's ears But if those micro-stacks aren't there, then I'm calling

[mrmuzeman]

With the extra information you've given now, I'd say it is a pretty tough decision. Certainly not a clear fold IMO, but now not quite a clear call either. On balance I think (assuming there are several micro-stacks) I'd be more inclined to fold. No doubt music to muse's ears

Doc can you stop winking at the end of your posts, you been chatting to PR on msn or sumthing?

Theres always gona be 2 or 3 really short stacks at this point in the tourny with less than 10bb.

Btw its nice to hear exactly Quandrams stack size but it makes no different to whats been said on the thread. I thought we were both aware that wed be looking at a stack of between 10-20bb and thats the perspective I was speaking from. With 5bb or some small amount like that id call with 77 I was never saying that wasnt a call.

I'd certainly agree that A-rag is one of his more likely hands. I guess in many ways this boils down to the fact that 77 is never a big favourite against anything but a lower pair or two lower cards. While these hands are possible they are (especially two unpaired babies) less likely. We all (at least muse and I!) agree that the 77 is probably ahead.

Yes I was never doubting the 77 would win more often than not, I reckon 57/58% of the time around there. The ratio would be imo something like 60% of the time overcards (98o through AKs), 30% of the time overcard/undercard (82o through A7s) and 10% of the time another pocketpair or random awful low hand. A hand like AK (instead of 77) would win more like two thirds of the time here I reckon and is more worthy of a call.

One other point worth mentioning here is that presumably the transition from 21 players to 20 means that you will go from 3 tables of 7 to 2 tables of 10. That change is important as you have 8 hands between blinds rather than 5.

It is certainly a point worth mentioning and its exactly a reason why it is again a folding hand. As I previously said I really think I can get my money in better spot than this more likely than not whilst virtually guaranteeing (nothing is certain but I really think at this stage in an online tourny someones going out very very soon) I dont bubble. Who knows maybe I can just keep nicking blinds when I move in and make the final table without even having to have a showdown thus having a 0% chance of elimination.

[Colbro]

I'm with Muse here. You have to assume two overcards at best even though it is a big stack playing aggresively.

In tournaments you often have to fold a big hand to win as well as luck out on a few occasions. 77 is far from being a big hand.

Get into the last 20 and it soon becomes 13,14 left and you can quickly move up the prize money. Short stacks here will gamble with anything.

Dan Harrington says it is all about survival and as for the quote about to live you have to be prepared to die - why die for your country, make some other fool die for his.
I played a tourney the other day where thirty people got paid and someone on my table was a cert for 31st place. He survived to the money and continued on to finish in 9th spot.

[Doc]

Doc can you stop winking at the end of your posts, you been chatting to PR on msn or sumthing?

Oh yeah, me and him are great mates - haven't you heard?

I thought we were both aware that wed be looking at a stack of between 10-20bb and thats the perspective I was speaking from. With 5bb or some small amount like that id call with 77 I was never saying that wasnt a call.

I think we're finding common ground here - it is a call for you at 5BB, but not at 20. So in between we have a transition where it may be call? I guess it is just a question of degree and preference here.

Yes I was never doubting the 77 would win more often than not, I reckon 57/58% of the time around there.

This is where I think we differ. If you'll win 57% of the time, and the blinds are 7% of your stack (i.e. you have about 15BB) then your edge is 27% or so. If you fold you're estimated finishing position is about 15th (lets say 3 buy-ins). If you call, then 57% of the time your estimated finishing position is about 7th (about 8 buy-ins) and 43% of the time it is 0. So folding, is on average worth 3 buyins, while calling is worth (8*0.57+0*0.43)=4.56 buy-ins. So the benefit to calling is over 1.5 buy-ins compared to folding! That is why I think calling has merit. Really this question comes down to the central problem of all gambling and speculation - the risk/reward balance, and ultimately that is something personal. I'd prefer to accept the risk of bubbling here for the greater expectation of bigger profits - on the basis I'll play plenty of tournaments and bubbling here is no big deal if on average I make more profit. If you prefer a different risk/reward balance I can't gainsay that - it is merely your preference.

Colbro:

Dan Harrington says it is all about survival and as for the quote about to live you have to be prepared to die - why die for your country, make some other fool die for his.
I played a tourney the other day where thirty people got paid and someone on my table was a cert for 31st place. He survived to the money and continued on to finish in 9th spot.

Harrington says quite the opposite IMO - he advocates taking a stand and being prepared to get stuck in at this stage of the tournament. IIRC he has an example in book 1 or 2 regarding calling a very similar hand with 88.
Your example here of the lingering short stack could equally be used as an argument for getting involved with the 77 - why wait, if a tiny stack could outlast you?