Tough spot with bottom set

[Jezza]

Hmmm. I will post this hand bit by bit I guess as you can do a few things on the flop. Once we have probably all disagreed about the flop I will post the next part lol.

Some reads on the table...

sztudent_ is a very regular player. I have played 10,000 hands with him and he is a good winning regular. He can try some big bluffs if his read is you have a weak hand but usually always seems to have it if you look him up. Hes not scared money in any way and hes definately a solid cash game player.

HonkKong$ I have NO idea about. However literally the hand before this one he won an absolutely huge 600bb pot that he played to perfection. I was sure the other guy (a solid regular) he won it off of had a set but no HongKong just had top and bottom pair and stacked him for a huge amount. I have only been on the table for less than 10 hands.

Anyway, on to the hand.

BossMedia Game #1005083709: Table Table TH 362 - $2.50/$5.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 04:41:12 - 2008/03/21
Seat 1: SootedPowa ($505.00)
Seat 2: sztudent_ ($582.00)
Seat 3: AAking666 ($704.25)
Seat 4: Andy Beal ($387.40)
Seat 5: HongKong$ ($4122.60)
Seat 6: crashintom ($1756.60)
Seat 7: sqibbel ($302.50)
Seat 10: schraubenk ($582.26)
Andy Beal posts the small blind of $2.50
HongKong$ posts the big blind of $5.00
AAking666 is the button

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SootedPowa [6h 6s]
crashintom folds
sqibbel folds
schraubenk folds
SootedPowa raises $17.50
sztudent_ calls $17.50
AAking666 folds
Andy Beal folds
HongKong$ calls $17.50
*** FLOP *** [Qd Td 6d]
HongKong$ checks
SootedPowa bets $55.00
sztudent_ calls $55.00
HongKong$ raises $185.00

Now what?

[Betfly]

If it was me I'd fold too much!!!

But Flush draw looks good or does HK want you to think that.

With your stack all in as any other bet he'll raise.
No?

[Doc]

fold

you have to risk all your stack here, and I don't like your chances.

Two guys have played to raise AND called a big bet on a dangerous board. If you're against a higher set then you're drawing to a 1-outer. If you're against a made flush, you'll just about be getting pot odds. There could be straight draws out there too. I don't like it

Nothing wrong with your leading the flop or the PFR IMO

[DAN DAN]

As you know I'm rubbish at this Jez so I look forward to be educated again.

The board looks pretty scary to me so i'd probably fold, my thinking is your post flop raise looks like you don't have any of the flush and are testing the water. Therefore someone with the flush would call your raise. Someone chasing it would re raise BIG. So does sztudent_ have the flush? No idea about HongKong's raise. Not big enough to put off the pot if he's chasing but if he had a flush surely calling will get more from you all?

I wouldn't pay any attention to my post, just didn't want to post "tell me please."

[Scottieboy08]

Flop lead is standard, I fist-pump shove and holla variance
The fact that HongKong$ had just top+bottom pair in the last hand swings it for me. So many combos out there, plus you have boat outs for the times they turn up with the 5 hi flush. This is much tougher 130bb deep and up though for sure.

(Final point, I rule out QQ, TT IS a possibility but not enough of this guys range for me to fold. Also, if sztudent_ is a good reg, I expect him to raise small flushes here)

[ONEDUNME]

I love this poker talk . I just wish I understood it

I do try to follow but you might have well written that last post in wingding for all that I understood Scottie.

[DAN DAN]

What the fuck are you doing in here ODM?

Ps Scottie's post could be in wingding for me to understand it too and I play poker.

[ONEDUNME]

I often read this poker stuff Dan Dan. Sometimes I even understand it

If I'm honest, I learned quite a bit about how important position is from reading stuff in this forum. I don't play a great deal. I get bored of it very easily, so tourneys are right out and if I play, I have to make a concious effort to get out after about an hour because I find myself spending less time thinking about the poker I'm playing and more time with the other 27 windows that I've somehow subconciously opened instead?

[Scottieboy08]

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME

I love this poker talk . I just wish I understood it

I do try to follow but you might have well written that last post in wingding for all that I understood Scottie.

Originally Posted by DAN DAN

Ps Scottie's post could be in wingding for me to understand it too and I play poker.

[DAN DAN]

Originally Posted by ONEDUNME

I have to make a concious effort to get out after about an hour because I find myself spending less time thinking about the poker I'm playing and more time with the other 27 windows that I've somehow subconciously opened instead?

That always happens to me playing online poker, the best I have done recently was when i was in another room from everyone with nothing to distract me, didn't even have the punt on.....was hard work though.

[Jezza]

thanks for the replys so far guys.

Well I agree the flop play is very debateable as to what to do next (I think leading the flop is 100% the best play, checking is just bad. However it is what to do to the check-raise that is the crux of the argument).

I wont reveal my thinking on the flop yet (but I will say that I am STILL undecided on the best play ). However given that I did this below, what do you do now to the turn bet?

*** FLOP *** [Qd Td 6d]
HongKong$ checks
SootedPowa bets $55.00
sztudent_ calls $55.00
HongKong$ raises $185.00
SootedPowa calls $185.00
sztudent_ folds
*** TURN *** [Qd Td 6d] [7c]
HongKong$ bets $305.00 (note, this is exactly what I have left)

I dont know if it makes a difference btw but this is a euro table, not a dollar table, its just bosses HH does not state this properly.

[Scottieboy08]

This hand is pretty disturbing now. So sick you have sztudent_ to act after you. The problem being both of them can't have the Ad and the only other hand that fits is QT. Meh, a fold isn't bad because of this reason but a flop call was ALWAYS gonna give a hard decision on the turn.

[DAN DAN]

Ok now I think he has QT and thinks you are flush chasing and doesn't want you to see the river?

[Doc]

somehow missed last time that you had position on him AND that he was the big blind. That makes a big difference. He may well be sitting there with something like AQ with the Ad, or something like KdJd. I think that once you call his check-raise you're committed to the hand, so you have to grit your teeth here and call.

Re-popping the flop might get him to fold something like TT (unlikely though). Flat-calling can go both ways - he may slow down and try to get a free river if he has the naked ace, or he may see you as weak and put the pressure on.

From a pot odds perspective you're being asked to call 305 to win 655

If he has a higher set then you've 1 out (1/44 chance)
If he has a made flush then you've 13 outs (13/44)
If he has a flush draw then he has 8 outs (i.e. 36 cards are good for you)

Given that there are 44 cards left and €655 to play for, you're looking at about €15 per card
Your equity against a higher set is about €15, against the made flush is €194 and against the draw is €536

You need the balance of him having each hand to be sufficiently heavy towards the draw to make €305.
If for example it was (5,65,30) then your equity would be about €280 - so falling a littler short

I'd say you need him to have the draw 35% or more to make the call worthwhile. Still just about a fold for me I think.

[Scottieboy08]

Originally Posted by Scottieboy08

This hand is pretty disturbing now. So sick you have sztudent_ to act after you. The problem being both of them can't have the Ad and the only other hand that fits is QT. Meh, a fold isn't bad because of this reason but a flop call was ALWAYS gonna give a hard decision on the turn.

Ah shite, didn't see sztudent_ folded. I call here. I was more worried about him than KingKong.