Dave's Philosophy Of Gambling

[Hippy Dave]

This is not intended to be a complete guide to successful gambling. I expect lots of people to disagree with things that I say in the following piece. I could also write a lot more than I am about to What it is, is a brief insight into the way I successfully gamble.

Bankroll and stake management
Probably the single most ignored aspect of gambling, but without due attention the majority of punters will fail, when they could be successful. Why is this? For me, like most things in betting, it all comes back to discipline. If you decide on a bankroll, be it 200pts, 400pts or whatever, you will have limitations within which to work. You will start to see this bankroll as money with which to make more money, rather than money that’s come from your pocket (or bank account) everytime you top up an account. One of the keys to successful gambling is to take the emotion out of it. If it doesn’t feel like you are losing real cash OR winning real cash (this is important) then a lot of emotion is gone. The fear of losing is reduced, as is the over excitement of winning. (This refers to the short term – in the long term a fear of losing is required).

That’s the bankroll, now for staking. I personally work from a 200pt bank, and I think most people will say that that’s not a bad point to start from. With this bank, bets will range from 1pt to 20pts. Once these limits are chosen it’s important to stick to them – it’s all very well saying that you’ve got a dead cert at great odds, and need to put on more than 20pts, but you have to remember that at 10% of your betting bank 20pts is a big bet. Some will say that 10% of your bank is too much to risk on even the most confident bet. I can’t agree with this. While keeping a structured bankroll and staking, you must bet money that actually means something, win or lose. One of the main reasons that so many people lose is because they bet money that they don’t care about, and therefore cannot keep the required discipline to succeed. Note that betting money that means something is not the same as betting money you cannot afford to lose. Others will tell you that fixed stakes or fixed profit is better. Maybe it’s better for them, but for me this works. If someone wishes to convince me of the merits of fixed staking or profits I am happy to listen.


Record keeping
Record keeping is essential. Firstly, and probably the biggest reason for this, record keeping keeps your discipline. It sounds boring to keep repeating it, but without the discipline you cannot be a successful gambler. Why will it keep your discipline? If you’ve never kept records of your betting try it. And see how it feels to have to write down your bad bets, as well as having lost the money. It’s not easy to look at a screen full of not only losing bets, but bets that should never have been placed.

What records should be kept? I go for Date, Time, Sport, Bet, Stake, Odds. Bookie, Money Returned, Profit/Loss, Total, Yield. Then I'll have separate record for each sport, and types of bets within each sport. I always have a look back at the end of the week at anything I've bet on, and decide whether, if the same event came round in the same circumstances, would I still bet on it - essential I think to keep on top of the game, and something that's not possible without a record of your bets.

Confidence
This will sound incredibly arrogant, but I believe I’m the best gambler on the forum. No doubt, everyone else will disagree with this. But for me, absolute confidence in your own gambling ability is essential. No matter how good you are, the losing streaks will come – these are the toughest times in gambling, and you need to have absolute belief in your ability to turn things round. Strangley, given that I hang about on a forum so much, I very rarely follow a tip from anyone on here, even though there are a lot of people turning a profit (certainly a higher percentage than in the general population). There are only 2 people who I would strongly consider following (only after doing my own follow up research). One was zonker (when he was placing free bets on this site) and the other has a big enough ego already. That is not to say others do not alert me to opportunities, but if I had to follow a couple of people blind these would be them.

Strategy
A lot of people confuse sporting knowledge with a successful betting strategy. I don’t doubt that there are people in all areas with more sporting knowledge than myself. But the majority of people cannot convert that into money. The reason, I believe, is over-complication. Betting is simple – there are at least two options, with odds, and you have to decide which one (if either) is correct to bet on given the options and the odds. In something like a basketball match, there are 2 options – one team to win or another team to win. The obvious thing to do is look at the home team’s home form, and the away team’s away form. Then look at the odds, and see if there is any perceived value. If there is, that’s when I look into more details, team news etc. If not move onto the next. People will tell me that I need a more sophisticated method, that the bookies will not make simple mistakes like this – the fact is, they do. And you don’t need to spot many to make good money.

Take, on the other hand, the guy that analyses this match differently. He looks at the form just like I would and decides that there’s no value. Instead of moving on he tries to create value. He might note that one of the players has an injured fingernail and decide that this makes the other team a dead cert (exaggeration, but you see what I mean), or that the home team’s biggest fan is expected to miss the match, so they might struggle etc. The point I’m getting at is don’t search for value in over complicated ways – see if the simple method points you to value. Then consider other factors to see if there is anything which means that the value isn’t as good as you thought. If you can’t find anything important, then you have a bet.

People seem to forget that form is the single best indicator of how a team is likely to perform in the next game. They can spend hours looking through old match reports and tell you that a team’s 15 game streak without a win has been incredibly unlucky, and they’re about to turn over the league leaders away from home. They can’t win, who cares if they’ve hit the crossbar 3 times per match – all that tells me is that their strikers aren’t good enough.

I’ve been going for long enough on this, and no doubt there are things that I’ve omitted, but the general points I wanted to get across are in there.

[all_funkt_up]

Excellent thread mate. Everyone has their own philosophy like....arrr over to the big brother thread

[keemanan]

and the other has a big enough ego already

It's gett1n aint it

Some good points there Dave but as a hobby punter I wouldn't want to take the emotion out of it , I like the buzz and you say you dont get a buzz?

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by keemanan

It's gett1n aint it

Some good points there Dave but as a hobby punter I wouldn't want to take the emotion out of it , I like the buzz and you say you dont get a buzz?

I ain't saying his fcuking name

Do I get a buzz? Sure if my team scores a 90th minute winner, but in the short term it doesn't bother me if I win or lose, obviously in the long term it matters.

[all_funkt_up]

Like Keem says - for the novice punter (moi) its all about "Jeff Stelling and a 90th minute goal at Selhurst Park......but who has scored it?"

You cant beat the buzzzzz

[aliensyndm]

I ain't saying his fcuking name

So it's a he then ?

[Kop66]

Good read and Philosophy Dave

btw, whats wrong with my tips ya cnut

[spreadman]

Hi, Dave, a pleasant change to read the thoughts and beliefs of a fellow punter that in many ways align with my own trading parameters and working principles.

If a person regards the betting that they do as an entertaining form of spending money, with the slight possibility of a return 'payoff', then that's fine.

But if it is your main source of income, then you have to adapt a set of 'rules' or guide lines by which to earn your living, just as a professional person in any job or trade must do in order to be successful.

If you can trade (or bet) unemotionally, learn from your losing bets, (and wins), stick to your set of rules, don't chase your losses and always know exactly what your profit/loss situation is, at all times, then you should consider yourself a 'pro', and enjoy the benefits that it brings.

I recently discovered a 'loophole' or 'weakness' in a particular spread market, one that is little known by the general punter, that provided a steady source of income. This was only possible by adhering to my 'rules', fastidiously maintaining records and constantly scanning, researching, and testing, past results, stats. etc.

I recorded results for a long time, checked and double checked, and then moved in for the kill, like a cheetah knocking down it's helpless prey, or a cold deadly black-eyed shark closing down on its victim....
(There's nothing like a bit of colourful descriptive prose to liven up a thread!).


Sad, and you can call me an 'anorak', but I'm an anorak with a betting bank that's increasing, due solely to the strategies I have developed and employ each day.

So, heed the wise words of Dave, if you don't already employ his sort of advice in your daily betting.

If you really want to make a go of it, you will need dedication, concentration, time, and a set of rules like Dave's.

[aliensyndm]

Oooooh Oooooooohhhhhh Dedication's what you neeeeeeeeeeed !

[mrmuzeman]

Nice thoughts Dave, I apply most of that to my gambling lifestyle.

By the way is that Gett1n or Alien you are talking about? Both have huge egos you see!

Oh and also im the best gambler on this forum

[aliensyndm]

There's probably alot of "best"gamblers on the forum. Best is a hard thing to define, is the best the person who makes the most money, the person with the highest yield, the person who is most consistent, the person who picks the longest odds winners, the person with the best discipline etc etc. There's many things best could be. Say 2 gamblers both have 1000 bets, one guy does does his betting odd-on money lines 1/3 etc on basketball matches, the other guy does his on 6/4 outsiders on footy matches. Come the end of 1000 bets they both have made an identical amount of cash.
Who's better ? Is one better ? Are they both the same ?

Gambling in general is ripe with exagerration of winnings and downlplaying or completely ignoring of losses. If gambling is mentioned there's always someone who is amazing at this or knows that inside out etc. Of course you ask them a question like, "If you are so good at it why do you work, why not just live off that ? " Then of course the bullshit comes etc, always amusing.

Anyway my 2ps worth on the subjects mentioned....

Bankroll:

Well yeah rather important as you would expect. I'm not about to try and write out some strategy on that, it's already been done 1000 times it's just people don't stick to it. Exactly how much you bet etc is critical to your success. I like the example of the card game blackjack, you can only ever expect to win about 40% of the hands, but if you stake it correctly ie card count and have lots of cash on hands which are more likely to win and less on hands which are more likely to lose you can come out on top.
Someone could be picking 55% winners at odds of evens and still lose if they are putting more cash on their losers than their winners. That person could be a winning punter longterm if he just sorted his bankroll and staking out.



Record Keeping:

Pain in the ass yeah but you should do it. It does help maintain discipline yeah. I actually prefer writing things on paper which does seem a bit strange considering how much I'm into computers but hey.


Confidence:

As already said what exactly is the best is very open to debate. I'm not in competition with other people, there's always someone better. I mean if you go to the gym you can think woo hoo I can lift 20 lb more than that guy but there's always some other guy who can do 50 lb more than you.
You just have to try and be the best for yourself and not worry about others. In fact use other gamblers to help you if they know what they are doing !


Strategy:

This ties in with your ability to assess value really, one of the main factors which are going to decide if you are a winning punter. Do you think Man Utd will win ? Yes. Are they value at 1/2 to win ? No. Alot of people just don't seem to get that part. It's not about picking teams you think will will, it's about picking teams that you think will win which have value in the price to do so. Better to pick ten 1/4 shots that should be 1/10 than picking ten 5/4 shots that should be 8/11

Also when you are actually placing bets you must make use of all the tools available to you. If you are serious about your betting you want the best price every time, that means numerous bookie accounts. I just had a quick count, I have about 35 at the moment. Price difference can be the difference between long term winning and long term losing !
Also take advantage of all the free bets and offers yes, but don't place bets you wouldn't have just to do so. If such and such a game is money back if scholes comes out with died blond hair don't bet on it just cause of this offer.


Don't listen to the advice of everyone all the time. Sounds a bit stupid considering this thread but would you take advice on how to achieve world peace from george bush ?
There's a million people out there with their own advice, ideas and strategy.
It's not all correct, most punters are long term losers - there's alot of people talking bullshit out there !

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by aliensyndm

There's probably alot of "best"gamblers on the forum. Best is a hard thing to define, is the best the person who makes the most money, the person with the highest yield, the person who is most consistent, the person who picks the longest odds winners, the person with the best discipline etc etc. There's many things best could be. Say 2 gamblers both have 1000 bets, one guy does does his betting odd-on money lines 1/3 etc on basketball matches, the other guy does his on 6/4 outsiders on footy matches. Come the end of 1000 bets they both have made an identical amount of cash.
Who's better ? Is one better ? Are they both the same ?

I haven't read the rest of your reply yet (and it's Gett1n not alien by the way MrM ), but just to address this point.

Whether or not you are actually the best, or can even define the best, I think the key thing here is to believe that no-one is better than you. Confidence in your own ability, as in all aspects of life, is paramount.

[aliensyndm]

You must have confidence in your own abilties yes but not unjustified confidence. With many things if you don't have confidence in your own abilities why should you expect someone else(like a potential employer) to have any in you ? Believing noone is better than you is silly in my opinon. If you think you are the best then you've nothing to learn from anyone else.
A tale I once read illustrates this, it went something like......

Gambler Jim is a very enthusiastic sports bettor, he's not bad at it.
He's gonna be meeting Gambler Bob the seven time handicapping super beefcake betting bastard champion.
So the pair of them meet and Jim is busy telling Bob all about how he bets and what staking plan he uses and bla de la de la.
It's an amusing discussion and Bob has to go and that's that.
Now Jim has spent the whole time talking about his own staking plan and Bob has been listening. Bob is still always willing to learn and aware noone knows everything and isn't under any delusions that he's the best even though he might be the champion whatever.
Jim spent so much time talking about himself he never learnta single thing from someone who had far more knowledge than himself.


You have to have confidence in your own ability yes but you also have to recognise and correct your errors. Poker is a good example, there's always something new to learn. There's always ways of improving your game - are you playing too tightly on the button, too loosely early or whatever it could be. You should always be on the lookout to learn something new from people.
Thing is with gambling or with anything there are always very talented bullshitters that can really sound like they know what they are doing when in actual fact they are full of shit. The "you should try to be more like me" kind of advice. I've been involved in games of chance one way or another for a fair while and the amount of shit even well informed people talk is unbelievable.

Egos constantly come into gambling as well. I can pick better this or bla de la de la. The only person you should be in comepetition with is yourself.
A friendly bit of banter is always good but it often does get out of hand.

I agree with your statement to a point I think Dave. But I don't think you should forge ahead with some delusion that you are the "best", I mean that's kidding yourself.

[mrmuzeman]

Better to pick ten 1/4 shots that should be 1/10 than picking ten 5/4 shots that should be 8/11

Am I thick not knowing why this is?

[Hippy Dave]

Originally Posted by aliensyndm

The "you should try to be more like me" kind of advice.

I agree with your statement to a point I think Dave. But I don't think you should forge ahead with some delusion that you are the "best", I mean that's kidding yourself.

I don't know if the first part was a general statement, or directed at me - all I'll say is that I pointed out straight away that this is what works for me, not necessarily for others.

To expand on the "best" part. Again, it's not going to work for everyone but personally, if I don't believe this then I'll start doubting my abilities, wondering why I'm not the best. For some people this will get them to try to improve, for others it can lead to changing the way you bet for no good reason. And the record-keeping is important here - you can't kid yourself if you have accurate records over a long period of time, either you're doing well or you're not.