Semi Final 1

[MickeyPaul]

I forgot how much I love this event. I'm currently listening to Bosnia for maybe the 8th time in a row. Please tell me it's odds against to qualify?

[likesadabble]

Getting some bets in here to make this interesting..

5pts Israel to Qualify @ 2.26

5pts Poland to Qualify @ 2.08

5pts Andorra to Qualify @ 2.40

nothing major tbh, dnt wanna lose it all before the 2nd semi!

[Beanie]

That's it likesadabble - all aboard the Israeli bus

Here's a decent little preview - not mine - but whoever wrote it agrees with just about all my qualification predictions so I might aswell fire it up and just add a few thoughts beside them...

Semi-final 1 - Tuesday 20th May


1. Montenegro: Stefan Filipović - Zauvijek volim te (I Love you forever) video preview

* While Serbia marked their debut as a country in their own right with a win, Montenegro had a nightmare, and it looks like more of the same in 2008. The Montenegran effort is totally forgettable, both song and performance wise, which isn't great when you're first up in a 19 strong semi final. Prediction: Won't Qualify. - Agreed, it's bland and forgettable, a song which offers no reason to pick up the phone and get dialling. Like a 90s one hit wonder, just minus anything that could actually be a hit. Won't Qualify.

2. Israel: Boaz - The Fire in your eyes video preview

* Despite being drawn second, statistically the worst position possible, Israel's entry is pleasant enough, and it's contrast with the novelty act that follows should work in it's favour. Prediction: Borderline Qualifier, but bottom half in the final. - As noted, all being equal this would sail through - the big negative is the draw, but the poor songs around it should, should overcome that. Will Qualify.

3. Estonia: Kreisiraadio - Leto svet (Summer light) video preview

* An awful novelty act. Sure to get some votes, by virtue of being part of the Soviet bloc, but even novelty acts need some sort of redeeming feature to get anywhere, and this simply doesn't. Prediction: Won't Qualify. - As bad as novelty get...not a sniff. Won't Qualify

4. Moldova: Geta Burlacu - A century of love video preview

* Harmless, but goes along without really sticking in your head, a bit like the background music you tend to hear on a phone as you're waiting in a queue. Prediction: Won't Qualify - As noted, this is as bland as music gets. Europe will have forgotten this in the time it takes to listen to it. Won't Qualify.

5. San Marino: Miodio - Complice (Accomplice) video preview

* One microstate may have dropped out, in the form of Monaco, but San Marino have joined the party. Sadly, for their sake, this hasn't got enough about it to make the desired impact, especially with no guaranteed neighbourly points likely to be forthcoming. Prediction: Won't Qualify. - The salient point here is that the small nations will struggle for support unless their entry really sticks out. This doesnt and they should really struggle to qualify. Won't Qualify.

6. Belgium: Ishtar - O Julissi video preview

* No, you haven't been transported into a foreign version of The Sound of Music. One positive is that it's most certainly different and, being sung in a made up language ensures forgetting the words is impossible. However, the Netherlands came up with something similar a couple of years ago, and failed to make any notable impact, so a different outcome doesn't look likely. Prediction: Won't Qualify. - The Belgians usually come up with something wierd, and no different this year. Its a complicated song which never prosper at Eurovision, and despite the fact they can actually pull off all the harmonies and melodies live going by the rehearsals, the song still doesnt have any real point. Won't Qualify.

7. Azerbaijan: Elnur and Samir - Day after day video preview

* Full marks for impact. This theatrical effort will certainly stick with you once it's ended and, following on from a run of distinctly average songs, could perform surprisingly well. Prediction: Qualifier, could make top 10. - It's memorable, it's striking, the vocals are solid and the stage show goes well with the song...thats not to say its any good - there isn't any real melody in there or chorus to hang onto, but there's enough redeeming features to see this one through. Will Qualify.

8. Slovenia: Rebeka Dremelj - Vrag naj vzame (To hell with it) video preview

* A pleasant enough song, that's easy enough to hum along to. Nothing about it really pops out at you though. Prediction: Borderline Qualifier, won't threaten the winners. - The rehearsals have been very suspect - the song is strong but its a powerful chorus that relies on vocals and clarity that I'm not sure the live performance has. On paper should qualify, but could really struggle live. Not Sure.


9. Norway: Maria - Hold on be strong video preview

* Polling well, but the bookies have been happy to take it on thus far. I'm leaning towards the bookies viewpoint as, while it's not a song you'll be wishing you could fast forward through on the night, there's little in it that suggests winning material. Prediction: Qualifier, but bottom half come the final. - Agreed - uninspiring, stock Eurovision fare. Enough to qualify but no real outright prospects. Will Qualify.


10. Poland: Isis Gee - For life video preview

* Without wanting to repeat myself, this is another inoffensive effort that will neither bomb nor win. Following on from the previous two songs, this is unlikely to standout as something different enough to warrant picking up the phone for. Prediction: Won't Qualify. - Im still not 100% on this one - I take the point re: its inoffensive sound, and don't get me wrong, it is your usual Eurovision structure, lyrics, vocals, but this one is well produced and the singing is strong. It's not great, but with 10 to go through it's got a good shout at qualification. Not sure.

11. Ireland: Dustin the Turkey - Irlande Douze Pointe video preview

* When I first heard of Ireland's song, I thought it had real potential. A puppet could easily have the novelty value necessary to give the Emerald Isle a win. Sadly, it is nothing more than a cringeworthy dirge, with a target audience of 2-year-olds. Not funny, not clever and, while someone will undoubtedly vote for it, I'd be amazed if this defies the disappointing performance suggested by early polls, and vindicates the stingy odds currently available on it winning. Don't be fooled by the publicity. Prediction: Qualifier, but would do well to make top 10. - its odds on to qualify, but I'm not so sure. To vote for this relies heavily on 'getting it' - but given the strained vocals and comic references you'd have to be a fluent English speaker to do so. Can't see any support outside the very west of Europe, and without that it will be borderline. I'll stick my neck out: Won't Qualify.

12. Andora: Gisela - Casanova video preview

* The kind of run of the mill woman singing upbeat song with dance beat backing that appears every year. Being a small principality, with only Spain guaranteed to give them points, this might struggle to make the final, as their 2007 entry did despite having more going for it. Prediction: Won't Qualify. - Agreed - it's a tuneful enough song, but its been done 100 times before, it doesnt get much support, and Andorra don't have many traditional allies. Wont Qualify.

13. Bosnia and Herzegovina Laka - Pokušaj (Try) video preview

* The performance is undoubtedly one of my favourites, quirky, creative and thoroughly original. Quite how viewers will take it is an unknown, but I feel certain Bosnia will harbour reasonable levels of support, especially from their Eastern European allies. Prediction: Qualifier, then top 10 is possible. - It's a bit of an aquired taste - an arty effort that hasn't really been done at Eurovision before that I can recall. Not sure about outright chances yet but with Eastern Euro support should sail through. Will Qualify.

14. Armenia: Sirusho - Qele Qele video preview

* One of the favourites, and you can understand why. However, it's too repetitive for my liking - the chorus is the same words over and over and Qele is sung over 30 times by my reckoning. So, while it has enough characteristics to win, I wouldn't be backing it to do so myself at such short odds, especially before I see it sung live. Prediction: Qualifier, 5th-10th in Final. - A front runner, and will sail through. Will Qualify.

15. Netherlands: Hind - Your heart belongs to me video preview

* I feel this will look weaker than it actually is, following Armenia, so could be one of those pleasant enough efforts that doesn't fulfil it's potential. Prediction: Won't Qualify. - Agreed - starting slot isnt that great, and the Netherlands have struggled with this type of song before, for whatever reason. Wont Qualify.

16. Finland: Teräsbetoni - Missä miehet ratsastaa video preview

* The Finns are quite obviously trying to copy the format that saw Lordi take the 2006 contest by storm. However, there's no masks this time and this is far less catchy, so disappointment beckons. Prediction: Won't Qualify. - Will suffer comparisons with Lordi even though Lordi were Eurovision with their act and lyrics and this has all those elements stripped out. Will need big Scandinavian support from Norway to make it through, but I cant see it at all. Wont Qualify

17. Romania: Nico and Vlad - Pe-o Margine de Lume video preview

* After Finland's rock rolls off stage, this Romanian duet should do ok as the only song of it's kind on the night. Prediction: Qualifier, though will struggle to make top 10. - A very listenable duet - she's a bit weak on vocals but he is strong, and will do enough to get through on the night. Will Qualify.

18. Russia: Dima Bilan - Believe video preview

* Dima Bilan is no stranger to the business end of the contest and, while this hasn't got the oomph of his previous effort, the former Soviet states will ensure he does well once again. Prediction: Top 4. - Yep, big Russian communities around Europe and further Eastern European support will mean this goes through, no doubts. Will Qualify.

19. Greece: Kalomira - Secret Combination video preview

* More often than not, Greece comes up with a good entry, and this year is no different. The Jennifer Lopez-alike, both in song style and to some extent looks, should take full advantage of being drawn last. A similar draw in the final could see it go far, but the doubts I have over her voice are tempering my expectations. Prediction: Qualifier, 5th-10th in Final. - It's a stock pop song, with slick choreography, bland lyrics and strong backing track. Eurovision usually needs more from a winner, but in terms of qualification will have no problems with the best slot of the night. Will Qualify.

[Beanie]

Lay Ireland to Qualify to win 8pts @ 1.64

For reasons around this thread - don't see where the support is gonna come from.

[kompressaur]

im gonna have a quick look at some of the around even money shoots to qualify or not. Actually i better read up the thread. How many places are really up for play here chaps?

Finlad
Belarus
israel
malta
denmark

nah this is silly. I bneed to see the odds to qiualify for each country. brb

[Martens]

thanks Beanie

give me three countries NOT TO qualify please, i think is opportunity to make some easy money here

eurovision song contest, is actually a balkan-eastern europe contest

according to my experience, 90-95% of western europe people, does not interested on that competition, never vote, and never listen to any of those songs-including my self-

so, have in mind that most votes coming from europe,are from immigrants living there, immgrants from balkans and eastern europe

so, i helped you, you help me please!

outside that region i mention, traditionally scandinavian countries , israel, malta and cyprus, are involved there as major ever

waiting your reply

[Dodger777]

Well after two listens to each song in the first semi final and after a visit to casualty for bleeding ears my thoughts are...

Russia to win the semi final..various reasons, decentish song, Eastern block scared of big brother so will vote for them and probably a polished performance to boot from the dude.

Greece to Qualify and maybe worth a punt on a top 3 in the semi bet too....total JLO rip off which is not a bad thing... best ass of the bunch too.

Andorra to Qualify decentish odds for qualifying this and very good odds for a top 3 in the semi ..yes its been done a million times, the old boom bang a bang tune but she's a babe so I'm giving her a go...hell, if only she would let me

Armenia to Qualify as mentioned by Beanie it is a bit repetitive but if she wears her tight fitting leather trousers then she must be worth a few thousand extra votes


Outsider which I have a sneakish liking for Slovenia to qualify

[Cinny]

Is this live on any tv channel tommorow night??

[Beanie]

Pretty sure the BBC are covering - BBC Three would be my guess. Also streamed online on the official site - stunning quality last year and thats what I'll be tuning in on again.

3 countries not to qualify? The most unlikely are the early group - Montenegro, San Marino, Moldova, Estonia. Cant see any of those making it - I'd go for Montenegro, San Marino and Estonia from the bunch but obviously the odds reflect that. Bad draw, limited allies in this semi, and poor songs. Cant see it.

Nice to read your thoughts Dodger. I haven't really looked at the 'To win' and 'top 3' markets yet - will have a look tomorrow. Greece, even at 1.15, is probably underrated to qualify. Going last is a huge bonus, the song is solid, the semi is weak - odds should be around 1.05 here.

Andorra I dont think wiill make it purely down to lack of allies iin Europe - Spain vote in this one so a 12 points there will help a great deal, and the odds have drifted like a barge to 3.00+ to qualify which is almost beginning to look a trifle big.

[kompressaur]

wo really only 2 spots on offer according to the betting Beanie? shit i need to try and take all this in. . Maybe i just have to listed to them all. Right lets do it-

i will edi tthis post

Eurovision Semi Final - To Qualify for Final Book Closes 20 May 20:00
Win Only
Russia 1/66
Armenia 1/50
Ukraine 1/40
Greece 1/20
Sweden 1/14
Turkey 1/8
Bulgaria 1/5
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1/5
Romania 2/9
Ireland 2/5
Iceland 1/2
Croatia 1/2
Latvia 8/15
Portugal 8/15
Hungary 4/7
Norway 8/15
Albania 8/13
Azerbaijan 8/13
Slovenia 8/13
Poland 4/6
FYR Macedonia 4/6
Switzerland 8/11
Georgia 8/11
Andorra 4/5
Finland 1/1
Belarus 11/10
Israel 6/5
Malta 6/5
Denmark 6/5
Belgium 7/5
Moldova 7/5
Estonia 13/8
Montenegro 7/4
Netherlands 15/8
Cyprus 11/5
San Marino 11/4
Lithuania 4/1
Czech Republic 5/1

bet365

shit thats two semis

[Beanie]

Komp - what you need to know is: 19 songs, all the countries taking part in this semi as well as Germany and Spain, vote on the songs in traditional format...1-12pts...the top 9 in the voting go through, as well as a wild card chosen by a Eurovision jury.

[Beanie]

Risk 4pts Lay Finland To Qualify @ 2.12

I don't get these odds at all, other than they have a favourable draw(altho again, given the merits of the songs around this one, you have to question if its favourable at all.)

Finland usually benefit from geographical bias, but with Norway the only other Skandinavian country in their semi, they could struggle here(Estonia the only other that could give any sort of bias.)

As for the song, its another rock effort...altho all the elements which made Lordi competition winning material(overstated power chords, ridiculous lyrics, funny hats, stage stunts) etc have all been taken away, just to leave a pure rock song. That hasn't ever done well at Eurovision(altho not tried all that often) and I don't see how this bucks the trend.

[MickeyPaul]

Does anyone fancy Bosnia e/w @ 10/1 in this? Israel up to 50/1 I see..... hmmm.

[kompressaur]

Russia 11/8
Armenia 16/5 - poss lay to even get to the final
Greece 9/2
Ireland 8/1
Bosnia & Herzegovina 10/1
Romania 14/1
Norway 28/1
Azerbaijan 35/1
Finland 35/1
Belgium 35/1
Israel 50/1
Estonia 50/1
Andorra 50/1
Poland 66/1
Slovenia 75/1
Netherlands 75/1
Montenegro 200/1
Moldova 200/1
San Marino 200/1

right ill go through them again here

[Beanie]

Going with 1pt Belgium to be the Wildcard @ 6.00

It's not got much popular support around Europe - Belgium never do, but its a quirky, original entry which seems to have gone down a storm at Eurovision HQ if the interviews I watched this morning are anything to go by, so there's a good chance it'll miss out on automatic qualification and be in with a big shout from the backup jury.