[Beanie]

They key to semi final punting looks to be in the voting format - understanding it is one thing, understanding how it will effect each countries chances will be quite another.

--------------------------------------------

Semi 1

1 Montenegro Stefan Filipovic Zauvijek volim te - -
2 Israel Bo'az Ma'uda Ke'ilo kan - -
3 Estonia Kreisiraadio Leto svet - -
4 Moldova Geta Burlacu A century of love - -
5 San Marino Miodio Complice - -
6 Belgium Ishtar O julissi na jalini - -
7 Azerbaijan Elnur Hüseynov and Samir Javadzadeh Day after day - -
8 Slovenia Rebeka Dremelj Vrag naj vzame - -
9 Norway Maria Haukaas Storeng Hold on, be strong - -
10 Poland Isis Gee For life - -
11 Ireland Dustin the Turkey Irlande, douze pointe - -
12 Andorra Gisela Casanova - -
13 Bosnia & Herzegovina Elvir Lakovic Laka Pokusaj - -
14 Armenia Sirusho Qele Qele - -
15 The Netherlands Hind Your heart belongs to me - -
16 Finland Teräsbetoni Missä miehet ratsastaa - -
17 Romania Nico & Vlad Mirita Pe-o margine de lume - -
18 Russia Dima Bilan Believe - -
19 Greece Kalomoira Secret combination - -

Germany and Spain also vote in this semi.

Semi 2

1 Iceland Eurobandið This is my life - -
2 Sweden Charlotte Perrelli Hero - -
3 Turkey Mor ve Otesi Deli - -
4 Ukraine Ani Lorak Shady lady - -
5 Lithuania Jeronimas Milius Nomads in the night - -
6 Albania Olta Boka Zemren e lame peng - -
7 Switzerland Paolo Meneguzzi Era stupendo - -
8 Czech Republic Tereza Kerndlová Have some fun - -
9 Belarus Ruslan Alekhno Hasta la vista - -
10 Latvia Pirates of the Sea Wolves of the sea - -
11 Croatia Kraljevi Ulice and 75 cents Romanca - -
12 Bulgaria Deep Zone and Balthazar DJ, take me away - -
13 Denmark Simon Mathew All night long - -
14 Georgia Diana Gurtskaya Peace will come - -
15 Hungary Csezy Candlelight - -
16 Malta Morena Vodka - -
17 Cyprus Evdokia Kadi Femme fatale - -
18 FYR Macedonia Tamara, Vrcak and Adrian Gadz Vo ime na ljubovta - -
19 Portugal Vânia Fernandes Senhora do mar - -

France, Serbia and the UK will also vote on this one.

[Beanie]

Will drag up the draw importance stats later on - last year as ever there was a definite bias towards those drawn very (very) early and very late - apart from Serbia who were slap bang in the middle and still won the semi.

Last year I think had a few stronger songs early on so hid a more general bias towards the later songs. Starting slots of 2-6 aren't that strong I don't think, certainly not as strong as 15-19 say.

First couple of notes on the draw would be that Greece and Russia will sail through - Latvia/Ireland etc - bad old draw and on shaky ground to make it through. More later.

[Beanie]

Let's see - from some postings last year...

We've had semi finals for 3 years and the evidence suggests that positions 1-6 are at a disadvantage, but particularly 1-3, with the rest not showing any particular patters.

In those 3 years, of the 18 songs from 1-6 only 3 made it through, and only 1 from 1-3(Armenia last year who went first.)

Given that Armenia 2 years ago and Bulgaria(with a dreadful performance too it should be noted) last year made it from spot 1 then I dont think that should be down as a disadvantage - advantage if anything.

So prime slots are 1, and anything from halfway onwards in increasing significance - with the last few the prime spots.

Ok onto the voting nonsense...

[sargent bilko]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Let's see - from some postings last year...

Given that Armenia 2 years ago and Bulgaria(with a dreadful performance too it should be noted) last year made it from spot 1 then I dont think that should be down as a disadvantage - advantage if anything.

So prime slots are 1, and anything from halfway onwards in increasing significance - with the last few the prime spots.

Ok onto the voting nonsense...

Its unusual for a country to finish higher in the final than the semi final, but Bulgaria did this last year from trap 21, which suggests to me that performing 21st is much better than going 1st.

I heard a rumour that they might be opening the phone lines at the beginning of the show this year. If this is the case going early might become an advantage rather than a disadvantage.

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by sargent bilko

Its unusual for a country to finish higher in the final than the semi final, but Bulgaria did this last year from trap 21, which suggests to me that performing 21st is much better than going 1st.

I heard a rumour that they might be opening the phone lines at the beginning of the show this year. If this is the case going early might become an advantage rather than a disadvantage.

Thats a good point bilko - as good as spot 1 is, its still nowhere near as good as a last 5 place.

What a nasty rumour! That would make a hellofa difference - I can kindof see the point given that for a song that goes third or something, when the lines open its been 2 hours since the song, no one remembers it and it sinks without trace. But then giving it up to 2 extra hours voting than the songs at the end...

Safe to say we'll need to find out for definite.

[kompressaur]

Brilliant stuff Beanie and Sgt Bilko. thanks. thjis sure does help. I just need to get myself a short list and i can go and apply this knowledge where i can. I will be back

[kompressaur]

Ive just noticed this format Beanie sorry Let me have a look at some odds-

Eurovision Song Contest - 1st Semi Final Book Closes 20 May 20:00
Each-way 1/5 1-2-3
Russia 2.25
Armenia 3.50
Ireland 5.50
Greece 10.00
Romania 15.00
Bosnia & Herzegovina 15.00
Norway 29.00
Israel 36.00
Andorra 36.00
Finland 36.00
Estonia 36.00
Azerbaijan 41.00
Poland 51.00
Slovenia 56.00
Belgium 71.00
Netherlands 86.00
Montenegro 151.00
Moldova 151.00
San Marino 151.00


Eurovision Song Contest - 2nd Semi Final Book Closes 22 May 20:00
Each-way 1/5 1-2-3
Ukraine 3.25
Sweden 3.50
Turkey 7.00
Bulgaria 7.00
Latvia 10.00
Switzerland 17.00
Portugal 19.00
Albania 23.00
Iceland 23.00
Hungary 26.00
Malta 26.00
Georgia 29.00
Denmark 41.00
Belarus 51.00
Cyprus 56.00
FYR Macedonia 61.00
Croatia 71.00
Lithuania 101.00
Czech Republic 126.00
bet365

[kompressaur]

The voting during the show

Citizens of each participating country vote by telephone and SMS. Two of the so-called 'Big Four' (France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom) will also vote in this Semi-Final (to be decided by draw), and possibly the Host Country (also to be decided by draw). Each country's 10 favourites are awarded 1 to 8, 10 and 12 points based on the number of votes. The top-9 of the tele-voting qualifies for the Final. The highest ranked entry of the back-up jury that has not qualified for the Final in the tele-voting also qualifies for the Final. The 10 qualified countries will be presented in randomly drawn order at the end of the show. The complete results of the tele-voting will not be announced until after the Final, to keep the tension high.

Eurovision Song Contest 2008 Semi-Final (1) | First Semi-Final | Eurovision Song Contest - Belgrade 2008

Betting on these semi's is just madness pure madness. Holland 2005 still sticks in my throat

[kompressaur]

with the results not being given to after eurovision the bet 'to qualify' can only be considered for the pleasure bettors amongst us. Im only seeing odds on betfair and the odds look almost not worth taking.

Im sure i'll end up taking a 4 country 4 fold bet at the last minute though

[kompressaur]

Lets run through it then. People expectent all over europe. they actually care who wins and dont care about winning money. they are not cynical. they have pure eurovision hearts and some of the homosexual types will be really pushing the boat out with parties and stuff. Midweek, hard day at work for most. The casual viewer will be naturally cynical. The european serbian cheer should get folks feeling part of a cosmopolitant little Continent of people.

So we kick of with this-



and most folks have switched the tv over to The Bill after 1 minute. Folks might start getting into something on Ch4 so their interest will have gone. Then we have...




Folks are still bored. i am too.

[kompressaur]

then Estoni (im just waiting for a good song)



i think this will be enough to make everyone just give up and turn over.

Starting slots of 2-6 aren't that strong I don't think, certainly not as strong as 15-19 say

Germany and Spain also vote in this semi

interesting points to think of and remenber Beanie. Im away to bed. No cigs doent duit me

[Beanie]

It's an absolutely dreadful start isn't it? I wouldnt be surprised if virtually all the qualifiers from semi 1 came from the songs at the end.

Time to start pulling some ideas together and getting some money down...I'll designate the next few nights for it as we are getting close...

[DAN DAN]

Semi 1

11, 13 & 18...how many go through?