Forget the song, its almost immaterial, this is all about the guy. He finished 2nd to Lordi with a pretty average song, which this also is, due to a) Russia's huge expat communities, and b) Dima's huge existing fanbase.
Big star in Eastern Europe, this is a big, big contender. As I say, if you want to back or lay it, forget the song, and research the guy.
As it is, I think the song is weaker than his 2006 entry, but 2006 was a strong Eurovision year IMO(altho plenty disagree with that) and so without much to beat this year, he's every chance.
Hi Beanie - have enjoyed reading your thoughts on the various songs, some good analysis there. I'm interested in your comments about Dima's huge following in Eastern Europe. I instinctively agree with you, but having looked into this a bit haven't turned up much to suggest any meaningful support outside of Russia. His official site has a clip of film showing him performing to perhaps 1000 people at a concert in Cyprus, but who knows, he could be the support act, or it could be a free concert. His wikipedia entry gives no hint of success or a fanbase outside of Russia, just saying that he is now interested in making an international career for himself. He does have an international fanclubs website, but I've yet to find a country with more than 25 members. (bilanclub dot com) Obviously given his performance in 2006 you have to respect his chances, although I do feel this year's offering is not quite as good 2006. Some kind of evidence of a strong Eastern Europe following would obviously boost his chances significantly.
Welcome to TDP bilko - good to read your thoughts - it prompted me to go and do a bit more digging myself.
I did perhaps overstate the popularity outwith Russian communities...he has enjoyed some chart success in Ukraine and toured extensively throughout Eastern Europe - typically crowds of 5000-10000 which isnt too bad considering gigs aren't quite the event that they are in western europe.
Having said that, the point re: Russian communities throughout Europe remains.
I'm currently trying to get together some stats for expat communities in Europe just to see how much of an advantage Russia(and other like Turkey) have in this respect.
I guess with Dima the question is how much it was the song that propelled him to 2nd. As much as I didnt rate it, the performance went down a storm on the night.
Here's another look:
Comparing that to his live performance from the Russian finals:
Put next to each other there isn't much contest - iffy vocals on both, far better stage performance(the piano thing was inspired) in 2006, a more appealing song, and dare I say(from an entirely heterosexual point of view!) that he was looking a bit better in 2006, altho best get a woman to confirm that
Yeah, 2nd thoughts are that this isn't really a contender at all - guaranteed a high finish but in terms of generating mass support needed to win, I'm not sure yet.
A strong top 4 contender in my eyes, not bad song and after there's nothing as interesting and different as Lordi were the guy could well finish 1st with a comfortable lead.
Goes into my shortlist.
I typed a longish reply a few days ago, but when I went to post it I got logged out and lost the post. Haven't had a chance to come back since.
Beannie, Russia do have very good overseas populations and therefore support. Looking at BF, it appears that those making the market have a pretty good understanding of this, with all the front runners benefitting from this. The key thing to remember however, is that whilst the unconditional support is very useful to get you into the top 10, no-one can win without the support of the neutral nations.
I agree about Dima looking worse for wear compared with 2006 - what on earth has he been up to? I also think this song is worse than the previous song. It should also be remembered he came 2nd in the final, but only managed 3rd in the semi. Coming 2nd to Lordi is a great achievement, but would he have picked enough of Lordi's points to actually win, had Lordi not been in the contest in 2006? I suspect so, but it shouldn't be taken for granted. On the positive side he came 2nd with a relatively poor draw, and the addition of Czech Republic, Georgia and Azebaijan since 2006 may well help him this year. Difficult one to call, so far no bet for me.
It's almost as bad a favourite as the Irish were. The song doesnt really suit his voice until the end and there's no backing track to speak of at all, I'll be surprised if half of Europe is still listening after the first 5 seconds.
Russia are always gonna be strong and this will certainly get top 5, but the neutral voters aint gonna get caught up in this one and it'll get beaten by the one they do.
I suppose when weighing up each songs chances, this one is easy for people - they look and see 2nd place in 2006, they see fairly similar song, they see a weaker field than than year - ergo he should win fairly easily.
As we say though, that ignores a lot of things that aren't so good this year, song, look, and surely a bit of fatigue - same guy, same type of song - only the die hards would bother to vote for that kind of lack of originality.
In the end I dont think the odds will look too stupid, cos he'll surely finish top 4 at worst, but I think that my main argument as to why this wont win is because every year there are hundreds of thousands of people round Europe who decide to watch Eurovision, and have their vote. Ultimately, there's so many of that type of viewer/voter, that the impact of the superfans who hammer away at redial all night isn't that great, and its the 'neutral', undecided voters that really decide who wins.
In 2006 Lordi won because they caught the imagination on the night - I didnt see last years final as I was on holiday but for Central and Eastern Europe it was probably the case with the Serbian song.
And this just doesnt do anything to catch your imagination - it'll get loads of votes from his fans and from Russian expats, but in terms of getting many 'floating' votes, you gotta have your doubts.
This is an alrite song, and i agree with the view that it will place well, definately top 4ish. Depends if he can nail the performance, which does not look likely as the years havent been kind to Dima..
I would have much preferred if Russia had gone with this..
that he was looking a bit better in 2006, altho best get a woman to confirm that
Yep so much fitter and cleaner shaven and taughter and yum and.......oh what was my point? Oh yes, think the song is still quite good, on par with 2006 and if he strips off a bit for the final he'll be fine.
Russia
Bang on the money Mick - I'm gonna follow you round these threads like a bad smell tonight 
