Eurovision Top4 Song Styles Since 1995

[Gavster]

Right, I've added another 10 years of top-4 placings, which replaces the previous thread. The quality of the early-noughties is surprisingly shocking! And as for the late 90's, they are all Soul-II-Soul wannabes and bland pop songs (Love Shine a Light and The Voice being the only ones that stand out).

There hasn't been two outright ballads in the top-4 since 1997. This may be due to quality or down to the amount of ballads submitted. This year, we have a decent selection including Azerbaijan, Croatia, Norway and Israel all gunning for the top. Just this snapshot of history suggests that only one outright ballad will enter the top-4. We could argue that Azerbaijan is R&B, and therefore, this may invite one of those other ballads into the fold.

The Ethnic and Traditional Folk songs also get a decent share of top-4 placings, with two in last year's top-4. There is a distinct lack of Ethnic songs this year, which should leave the door wide open for Armenia and Slovakia. Armenia is likely to generate more Bloc support, whereas Slovakia should pick up the majority of jury votes. Armenia's singer does have the weaker voice though!

The juries returned last year, which meant the House numbers failed to generate enough support (see Waldo's People - didn't even make the final). I see the same thing happening this year!

Now we have the pop/rock aspect of the vote. This just opens the door to all sorts of potential surprises. I see Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Romania and Turkey fighting for the remaining 1-2 positions. There are a couple of outsiders that could sneak in, including: Serbia , Estonia and Belgium.

This isn't gosple, it's just something to note when placing those top-4 bets

[madben]

sorry mate but i think you are barking up the wrong tree, the thing about eurovision is that you cannot break it down to stats,
they keep changing the voting system, this year like last will be jury and televoters
for the record my thoughts are
sweden no chance, dnemark i reckon this will bomb, romania no chance, cannot see germany winning, estonia no chance,
azerbaijan and armenia, no surprise if they either won but i think they will not, same for croatia
turkey will do well, a strong band and decent song, israel strong song and singer should be thereabouts, greece will is a top 10 certainity,
people say there are too many ballads, they will cancel each other out, why?
i think it will be a ballad and my choice would be norway and belgium both decent each way prices
but of course i could be entirely wrong

[MickeyPaul]

Thanks for sharing your views, madben.

but of course i could be entirely wrong

I think that's more likely to be me this year. I like Sweden.

[Gavster]

Originally Posted by madben

sorry mate but i think you are barking up the wrong tree, the thing about eurovision is that you cannot break it down to stats,

There are stats for everything madben, it's just whether you read into them or not. This is just a historical reference of the top-4 for the last 20 years. If you don't like it, fine!

As I said, they are not gospel, but they do show that Ballads don't tend to fill the top-4. In fact, it's the Ethnic/Folk songs that seem to do well. As always though, it's a good song that stands above the rest that will ultimately win (most of the time).

As for Norway, hmmm perhaps. I too have been considering an e/w since the odds lengthened. Problem is, people will think, *well they won last year, it's someone else's turn now.* Like many host nations before them, they will be up there, but in my opinion, not at the top.

There is always a certain amount of apathy surrounding ballads. Just look at the various forums and you'll find them littered with comments saying "oh no, not another boring ballad." This also applies to any genre of music when there is clearly overkill. Voters will naturally seek the best of each style and vote for it. Which is why I and many others have isolated Slovakia as the best "ethnic" song.

I'm not here to enforce my view on others, I just contribute what I can to the debate. But rather than say what you think will and won't happen, tell us why you think that.

[madben]

don't get me wrong i find your stats very interesting reading and there are some stats i use as a guide myself but i think it is too easy to get carried away with stats
since the introduction of the semis you can see what they are really like on stage before the final (big 4 and host apart), they will sing live and have nowhere to hide, and then you can bet with some confidence
my thoghts at the moment are pure guess work,i will have bet before hand if the price is right, in other words big
last year i was lucky enough to watch azerbaijan on you tube early on and realised it had a real chance, i went on to oddschecker and took 100/1 at 1/4 odds i,2,3,4, the price didn't last long, that was a real gem and they don't come along very often after the semi i had a nice each way on iceland, i also had a few losing bets but overall i did ok
from what i've seen of this years contenders and the semis will be the real test, i don't think germany or denmark or croatia look right,
being televised i think the song has to look and sound right and i think the look is just as important as the song, i'm sorry i can't put it better or clearer than that
as for norway i feel it will pick votes from a lot of countries and be a consistant if low scorer and if there is no runaway(s) in a close contest norway could be up there
as for slovakia it is my favourite song of the contest i would dearly love it to win but it doesn't look quite right, that could change when i see the semis but i doubt it

[madben]

part two
as for sweden apparently the rehearsal went very well but i still cannot see it being a winner but i could be wrong, i shall watch the semi and see how it looks,
the second semi especially should prove very interesting watching, have your laptops ready to get the best prices before it contracts
i watched the uk selection show, josh stood out as the obvious winner, it was 6/1 on paddy power, i tried and tried to get on but failed, even when it was 5/4 i still could not log on to my account and place a bet, total frustration