Semi Final 1 - 25th May 2010

[Beanie]

You Tube

You Tube

Recap rehearsal video of songs in semi final order

[Beanie]

Bear with me - some of the vids might be duff but just getting this set up nice and early now that the songs are set in stone so will amend from now on, particularly when the running order is decided next week.

Other things to note:

• Germany, Spain, and all the competing countries vote in this semi final
• Votes are 50% televote, 50% jury
• Lines are open throughout the show(I think)

[Beanie]

Without doubt the weaker semi final...a little bit of bloc help should see a song safely though.

Estonia, Latvia and Belarus will probably do enough so send Russia through, despite the atrocious song, so it might be worth having a peek at the odds of that one to qualify if the bookies push it out to a large price based on its outright odds.

[Gavster]

Originally Posted by Beanie

Without doubt the weaker semi final...a little bit of bloc help should see a song safely though.

Estonia, Latvia and Belarus will probably do enough so send Russia through, despite the atrocious song, so it might be worth having a peek at the odds of that one to qualify if the bookies push it out to a large price based on its outright odds.

I can still only find about 40pts for Russia. At least 60pts needed on average. If Russia were in the other qualifying group, I'd say yes, they'll do it. I'm looking for odds against them at the moment.


This has been added by gavinalwaysright. This is the final update before the semi finals.
updated 22/05/2010

Weak group, which makes it difficult to predict who might go through. At this point I'm confident that Russia are out of it. Moldova may surprise, even though their song is pure dross! Belgium and Serbia are good bet to win this semi.

[squallsquall]

My God this pile of dung is hard to predict... feels like just a few deserve to qualify

[Beanie]

As it stands I've got the 10 as:

Russia, Estonia, Slovakia, Finland, Serbia, Bosnia, Belgium, Albania, Greece, Iceland.

Lots of question marks tho!

Btw gav I think your spreadsheet has the 'Baltic' where it should be 'Balkan', but other than that a supreme effort!

[MickeyPaul]

Surely you mean 'Bollocks!'

I haven't even checked the semi lineups yet. Best have a look. Fine work gavin.

[Gavster]

Originally Posted by Beanie

As it stands I've got the 10 as:

Russia, Estonia, Slovakia, Finland, Serbia, Bosnia, Belgium, Albania, Greece, Iceland.

Lots of question marks tho!

Btw gav I think your spreadsheet has the 'Baltic' where it should be 'Balkan', but other than that a supreme effort!

Thanks for letting me know...

I'm not sure about your faith in Russia. Can't deny, it'll be a cracking bet, but just couldn't see myself betting for such a shocker!! Love the fact you're going for Serbia - it's class!

[MickeyPaul]

Ah, I see what you mean about this one being even harder. Only one in my mind as a cert would be Slovakia and I suppose Greece has to make it. Yip, this is hard for me in particular as there are a lot in this one that I dislike a huge amount so it's quite a challenge. I shall return. I can't remember half of them.

[MickeyPaul]

Qualifying odds bet365 (this might come out messy - apologies - actually it does, I'll use a screenshot)

[MickeyPaul]

Belarus still decent odds not to qualify despite.... the almost superhuman awfulness of their live performace. And Portugal still backable to make it @ 2.50

[Gavster]

Mickey... I see value in Macedonia. I prefer it to Bosnia, and discounting the rap, the lead singer is far superior to Bosnia's.

Might wait till the rehearsals for that one

edit: currently 4 @ VC

[MickeyPaul]

Can't remember Macedonia at all - I'll go have a quick listen.

edit: updated my thoughts on the Macedonia thread but I'm worried about having such strong views on things this year as I really seem to be off the ball at the moment (I still like Ukraine for example and they're 300/1 outright )

[Beanie]

Time for a vague top ranking as I see it with everything taken into account...but this is probably the toughest semi final in terms of calling the 10 qualifiers that I can remember because the margins are going to be so small.

1. Belgium
2. Slovakia
3. Greece
4. Serbia
5. Iceland
6. Albania
7. Russia
8. Bosnia
9. Belarus
10. Estonia

-----------------------------------------


11. Portugal
12. Malta
13. Finland
14. Moldova
15. Latvia
16. Poland
17. Macedonia

The way I see it is that everything is so tight that the 1-7pts from each country will all be a pretty random mish mash with little common theme. Therefore I'm favouring those countries that can count on a few 12 pointers which will make a huge difference - Russia, Estonia etc.) Having said that Estonia could be a very shoogly peg so Im not going near it even at odds against.

Only one I'm interested in is Moldova - everyone seems convinced it's going to qualify but I dont see why.

It's on first - not as bad a slot as in recent years as lines are open throughout the show, but are floating voters really going to vote after one song? No chance - first time we will see floating voters cote en masse is at the first break.

Its doing ok in polls etc but dance songs tend to be overscored in polls so Im not bothered about that.

Also, friends? I dont see any and that could be the difference in a very close semi. Russia is on just after - and of the few vague geographical friends Moldova may have, all will be too busy talking about the Russian song to remember Moldova.

Iceland is on last and should mop up a lot of the Eurodance votes.

Moldova's success relies entirely on its fanbase getting it over the line, I dont see juries or other televoters doing it, and I dont see it troubling the top 10.

2pts Moldova not to qualify @ 3.77 with Betfair(was a lay at 1.36)

3.25 available at Betfred.

[MickeyPaul]

That's a hell of a lot of shit you're putting in ahead of Portugal there. I'm standing by my little lung warrior.