Germany

[MickeyPaul]

Blimey. That's quite impressive. Wonder what she'll be to finish top of the big 4 then. I hate bloody Eurovision.

edit: tattoo on her left bicep area. That's gotta be worth another 3 or 4 votes. Bloody bastarding bollocks. I really wanted to bet on this.

[squallsquall]

HEAVY backing of Germany right now. Azebaijan is starting to drift.

[MickeyPaul]

And obviously I now want it to do really shit. To be honest, if that live version I added to the first post is still there, when you listen to that, I don't think it comes across too well. The studio version I can understand being popular as a single but I aint convinced about this coming off at Eurovision.

[Gavster]

Azer-bloody-baijan deserves to drift!

I feel really sorry for you Mickey. It has been over hyped. Perhaps much of it caused by you on our forum

[MickeyPaul]

I'm a very powerful man. Just look at those Sweden odds continue to drift into orbit.

[squallsquall]

Almost overtaken Azerbaijan as outright favourite now... still a massive difference in Top4-odds though, will they adjust if Germany takes the lead?

[MickeyPaul]

Eventually. I remember last year, something like, UK went 2nd fav (behind Spain if I recall) to top the big four but were way out in front of them in the outright betting. We get this every year.

This thread has utterly fucking depressed me to be honest. I was laughing at the 14/1 and now it looks mental. Moving toward 3/1 @ bet365

Stupid geeky slut. She can't even sing and the song is sooooo 2009.

Bah. I love her (she's talking about deep throat to start with)

[squallsquall]

On par with Azerbaijans odds for winner now! At one point even the fave still far behind for top4 though...

[Gavster]

Mickey.... I've got somet for you!

YouTube - Lena Meyer-Landrut - Satellite (Germany ESC 2010)

YouTube - Lena Meyer-Landrut - Satellite (Germany ESC 2010)

[Gavster]

AND.... I got a live version. The pronouciation is a little suspect. She says DAY like an aussie!

[MickeyPaul]

My God, these videos don't last long do they? I posted a live version the other day gavin (no doubt gone now) and as I said further up the thread, it didn't come across that well. She was rather wobbly but that may have been caused by her bobbing around too much. I don't think this is the winner but I wouldn't be totally stunned if it was. Don't think it will be though. But it could. Don't think it will. But, you know.

[MickeyPaul]

Right - your new live video is viewable for now and it still doesn't come across too well. She sounds rather weak (lots of wobbles in there) and the whole thing lacks impact for me. I'd be pretty surprised if it won (as it is now). I think she would be a decent lay.

[Beanie]

Originally Posted by MickeyPaul

lacks impact

Boof! Nail on the head for me - its a fine song, one which sounds good to listen to on its own, but with 24 other songs around it, there's nothing that makes it stand out. No money notes(not that she could hit them), not much they can play with in terms of stage setting/costume etc...'Here comes the favourite' says Wogan(im not moving on), and the watching public all say 'Oh' in unison as this quaint little ditty turns up.

The price is at its current level because of the momentum its built up on certain forums/charts etc, but theres still 8 weeks to go...nope not happening for me.

Its not going to win the jury vote, the songs fans can spraff on about musical merit all they want but ballads will come out on top 9 times out of 10(Fairytale being the 1!). That means it would have to win the televote and I dont see that either - nothing to suggest that Germany or a song like this could win widespread support.

[Beanie]

Lay now in @ 1.98 average on Betfair for a top 4. I don't see this as maintaining any sort of momentum for the next few weeks(already starting to tail off), and so it more likely to be much longer for a top 4 come finals night, and I dont think it will get near the top 4 in any case - I've got it at 8th in my vague guesstimate at the moment.

[squallsquall]

Seems to start dropping on the charts now - but the odds keep shortening. Azerbaijan shortening even more, though, which seems to supports my guess that the favourites would shorten as we get closer to the competition.